Just to put some numbers on it. Last year he conceded about 6:30 and nearly 9 minutes to Gonchar in the 1st and 2nd TTs respectively.

He lost about 4-5 minutes to many of this year's favorites who are TTers in the 1st TT, and anywhere from 8 (Kloden) to about 4 minutes in the final TT.

I guess his motivation last year may be questionable? But the numbers aren't terribly different from his disaster TT in 2005 when he was fully motivated.

Just to put some numbers on it. Last year he conceded about 6:30 and nearly 9 minutes to Gonchar in the 1st and 2nd TTs respectively.

And he admits that he's spent absolutely no effort to improve his TT. He gets my admiration for mixing things up. There has definitely been some flair in the tour so far and he's one of the lead actors.

This is a real dampener on my pipe dream that he could have another huge day in the mountains and hang on to Paris.

but the disaster in 05 wasnt him sucking at time trialing. he just had terrible luck. he crashed a bunch of times, changed bikes a bunch of times, had some flats.

i thought he did improve his time trialing? i think he uses a modified "floyd landis praying mantis" position now.

i thought he did improve his time trialing? i think he uses a modified "floyd landis praying mantis" position now.

When? Certainly not last year and I can't recall him ever riding a TT of any note in another race since then.

In the Giro's only regular TT this year he lost 5 minutes to Savoldelli over 43km. Again maybe it wasn't a full-on effort but you'd think he'd have wanted to test himself if he was going to shoot for the GC at the Tour.

I think even if he has improved 3 to 4 minute losses to the best GC TTers will be the best he can hope for.

I think part of the reason for the disaster is that he's a very compulsive guy. I remember some of the bike changes were supposedly due to tiny problems that were driving him nuts, and that he was extremely anxious about the TT.

For what that's worth...

When? Certainly not last year and I can't recall him ever riding a TT of any note in another race since then.

i never said hes ever shown improvement in a sanctioned event, but i thought i heard someone mention that he has been trying to improve his TT because he knows he needs to in order to legitimately contend for GC.

I think this is the million dollar question... how bad is his TT?

I'm sure he's done some 'secret squirrel training' since the most embarassing moments of his life in the TT a couple years back. Also, he wants the GC this year. GC = TT. But from his prologue performance and his Giro 07 TT's it looks horrible.

So we wait... til Saturday.

fc

Jesus, the dude dropped a minute to the condenders in what? 8k? Not that that will extrapolate to the longer ones, but still. He'll be lucky to podium.

but the disaster in 05 wasnt him sucking at time trialing. he just had terrible luck. he crashed a bunch of times, changed bikes a bunch of times, had some flats.
i thought he did improve his time trialing? i think he uses a modified "floyd landis praying mantis" position now.


What? his crash was a result of him not having good skills on a TT bike, that's not bad luck...it's bad handling skills. After that crash it all snowballed...also showing that mentally he wasn't up to the task

He is not going to gain any more time in the mountains. Period. It's the same thing every year. He gets in a break on a long day with weaker climbers and drops them all to win. The favs will not allow him to get another second. He will lose 5 min on the first TT and another 7 on the second. Bank on it.

I think part of the reason for the disaster is that he's a very compulsive guy. I remember some of the bike changes were supposedly due to tiny problems that were driving him nuts, and that he was extremely anxious about the TT.

For what that's worth...

right on!
this is how I remember it - he was really nervous and anxious to defend his third place (was it third?) and really wanted to give it the best effort - he had a crash, but it was nerves and handling skills more than bad luck, and it got worse and worse from there - he kept changing bikes for no apparent reason whatsoever. It was one of the most painful time trials to watch. I felt bad for the guy, and his claims that he has done nothing to improve his ITT yet he really has high hopes for high GC - is either sandbagging, lack or realistic self-assessment, or lack of professionalism in preparation for the Tour. Will to win is nothing without the will to prepare.

It was third. It was really a disaster of epic proportions for a pro cyclist. I don't see how he can contend for GC without at least improving all the way to average. Although even with his painful--and I agree, it really was painful to watch--TT in 2005, he did finish seventh. Not bad.

right on!
this is how I remember it - he was really nervous and anxious to defend his third place (was it third?) and really wanted to give it the best effort - he had a crash, but it was nerves and handling skills more than bad luck, and it got worse and worse from there - he kept changing bikes for no apparent reason whatsoever. It was one of the most painful time trials to watch. I felt bad for the guy, and his claims that he has done nothing to improve his ITT yet he really has high hopes for high GC - is either sandbagging, lack or realistic self-assessment, or lack of professionalism in preparation for the Tour. Will to win is nothing without the will to prepare.

I think he is prepared..... from what I have read he is very compulsive.. he probably has worked out exactly how much time he needs to gain in the mt.'s to limit his losses in the tt's... He knows he can't tt... I think after that disaster you descibe he has learned not to at least make stupid mistakes...

IMO he will gain some time in the Pyrenees in the climbs, that is his tour preparation.. how much time is the big question... and from his interviews today he plans to fight to stay in yellow, you got to love that.... And regardless of how much time if any, it should be fun to watch....

Look, I totally respect that a guy like Rasmussen (or Virenque before him) for their ability to go out on a long solo ride to capture the KOM and keep it. I mean, the route, the intensity, the stamina, all are commendible, but on the other hand, if any of the teams didn't want him to do it, they would have chased. The KOM jersey in my mind is less meaningful than the Green points jersey. Those guys have to try and win against someone day in, and day out.

Off topic, just had to put it out there though.

BT

I think he is prepared..... from what I have read he is very compulsive.. he probably has worked out exactly how much time he needs to gain in the mt.'s to limit his losses in the tt's... He knows he can't tt... I think after that disaster you descibe he has learned not to at least make stupid mistakes...

IMO he will gain some time in the Pyrenees in the climbs, that is his tour preparation.. how much time is the big question... and from his interviews today he plans to fight to stay in yellow, you got to love that.... And regardless of how much time if any, it should be fun to watch....

Maybe...just maybe...Ras is sandbagging....poor mouthing about how he hasn't worked on his TT... but he possibly has been doing some double secret TT training to deceive the others into letting him get more time on them in the mountains. He did alot of pulling on the flats between the climbs so I am sure he is going to TT ok.

Maybe...just maybe...Ras is sandbagging....poor mouthing about how he hasn't worked on his TT... but he possibly has been doing some double secret TT training to deceive the others into letting him get more time on them in the mountains. He did alot of pulling on the flats between the climbs so I am sure he is going to TT ok.

I was thinking the same thing. (or I should say hoping)
You might be confusing your terms. Sandbagging is when someone enters a race below their ability. What we're talking about here is a little bluff.
"I haven't been training the TT"

If he hasn't been working on his TT skills his coach should be shot.
slap on about 5lbs on his legs and some solid TT training he'd still be tough as hell in the mountains, might not be allowed in breaks to win mountain stages but if he could contend the GC, isn't that a sweeter piece of pie?

He did alot of pulling on the flats between the climbs so I am sure he is going to TT ok.

We'll see. I think he'll go alright but still lose several minutes.

He's got about 3 to 5 minutes in hand to the other main GC threats, maybe he'll hold onto yellow in the first TT but unless he's made dramatic improvements in his TTing he definitely lose it in the second. He's got to put time into them in the Pyrenees and I think it's pretty much an open question if he can ride away from the GC contenders if they go with him. Presumably he won't be given a free rein anymore like he was yesterday unless there is really no respect for him. Even yesterday a concerted chase probably would have knocked a couple of minutes off of his gains.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzeknUUhRoE&mode=related&search=

the first ITT this year is very different from last year's; the 2006 first TT was flat and was followed by rolling stage and then the first rest day. This year the first TT is hilly, including a cat 4 climb. It's followed by a brutal 2 days of racing, a rest day, and then another climbing day.

The placing of the first TT will force riders to decide between burying themselves to gain time and holding something in reserve for stages 14 and 15 (the Queen stage). It will likely be roasting out on the TT trial course as well, so it is going to be interesting to see what riders do. Rasmussen could decide to ride within himself, give up the jersey, then ride aggressively on Sunday-that day features two final beyond category climbs including the summit finish to Plateau-de-Beille. A long attack starting around km 130 on stage 14 would present the other GC riders with a tough decision (I think it puts Menchov in a good position as he can shadow the other riders)