The two favorites now got to be Valverde and Evans, considering their climbing and time trialing abilitites. I don't expect Rasmussen, Mayo, Contador, Sastre and Moreau to do as well in time trials as Valverde and Evans, but perhaps I am wrong and one or several of these guys will hang on well enough. Still, I think it's Valverde and Evan's tour to lose - someone else got to attack them in the mountains.It's possible chicken can hang on to his lead through ITTs, but I doubt it.

Kloden is probably the next big contender but has to make up time - either in mountains or in ITT, which he could conceivably do.

Also, Leipheimer and Moreau are not too terrible at ITT, but they are also a bit flaky and already a little behind - I would be surprised if they gained a lot of time in ITT over Kloden or Evans. So they got to attack, along with tiny/skinny mountain climbers (Mayo/Sastre/Rasmussen/Contador) if they want to win.

Vino's GC hopes are done, and I can't see Menchov or Karpets or Kashechkin coming back either.

The edge so far goes to Evans, I think, just barely though.If he can suck wheels and time trial better than Valverde and not lose too much time to Kloden, he could hold on.

It's still early though...

The two favorites now got to be Valverde and Evans, considering their climbing and time trialing abilitites. I don't expect Rasmussen, Mayo, Contador, Sastre and Moreau to do as well in time trials as Valverde and Evans, but perhaps I am wrong and one or several of these guys will hang on well enough. Still, I think it's Valverde and Evan's tour to lose - someone else got to attack them in the mountains.It's possible chicken can hang on to his lead through ITTs, but I doubt it.

Kloden is probably the next big contender but has to make up time - either in mountains or in ITT, which he could conceivably do.

Also, Leipheimer and Moreau are not too terrible at ITT, but they are also a bit flaky and already a little behind - I would be surprised if they gained a lot of time in ITT over Kloden or Evans. So they got to attack, along with tiny/skinny mountain climbers (Mayo/Sastre/Rasmussen/Contador) if they want to win.

Vino's GC hopes are done, and I can't see Menchov or Karpets or Kashechkin coming back either.

The edge so far goes to Evans, I think, just barely though.If he can suck wheels and time trial better than Valverde and not lose too much time to Kloden, he could hold on.

It's still early though...

Kloden will take over a minute in each TT out of Evans and Valv-Piti. As long as he's done nursing king kazakh he's my favourite.

it seems like to me that the time differences lost or won on time trials are so much smaller than the time differences in the mountains - i am beginning to wonder if rasmussen has a great chance - he may lose a time trial by a couple minutes, but if he can keep hanging on toward the front, aheasd of the peleton, in just a couple more mountain stages, he could win it all.

how far behind first place was rasmussen in last year's time trial when he fell and had to switch bikes?

for someone to defeat the chicken at this, it will take someone who is already in contention to defeat him in a couple mountain stages. this is tough since it seems almost all riders end up cracking somewhere along the line, and when you crack on the second big climb of the day, you don't just lose 30 seconds.

The two favorites now got to be Valverde and Evans, considering their climbing and time trialing abilitites. I don't expect Rasmussen, Mayo, Contador, Sastre and Moreau to do as well in time trials as Valverde and Evans, but perhaps I am wrong and one or several of these guys will hang on well enough. Still, I think it's Valverde and Evan's tour to lose - someone else got to attack them in the mountains.It's possible chicken can hang on to his lead through ITTs, but I doubt it.

Kloden is probably the next big contender but has to make up time - either in mountains or in ITT, which he could conceivably do.

Also, Leipheimer and Moreau are not too terrible at ITT, but they are also a bit flaky and already a little behind - I would be surprised if they gained a lot of time in ITT over Kloden or Evans. So they got to attack, along with tiny/skinny mountain climbers (Mayo/Sastre/Rasmussen/Contador) if they want to win.

Vino's GC hopes are done, and I can't see Menchov or Karpets or Kashechkin coming back either.

The edge so far goes to Evans, I think, just barely though.If he can suck wheels and time trial better than Valverde and not lose too much time to Kloden, he could hold on.

It's still early though...


Boy.... Kloden has to feel sick waiting for Vino now... but he may very well take it all in the last tt... but too bad he lost that time..

Valverde I think looks the strongest as well as Contador and MR looked solid.... Evans might have a hard time in the Pyrenees, but he tried to hang tough with Contador today..... and finished 3rd after getting dropped a bit on the run in... He might well be in yellow after the first tt!

Should be interesting with the tt on Saturday and directly to the Pyrenees with several mt. top finishes and also the ones that don't finish up... the downhill finishes are closer than we saw today... that should maybe help MR, Mayo and Sastre put some time into the better tt guys..

This is fun.... a wide open tour, who really knows what will happen!!

Vino looked like he was dying out there, he was in agony best I could tell. Kloden was my favorite b/4 the tour, I thought he was toast, but if Astana puts full support behind him he'll push up to top 3 IMO.

Funny how Levi was p*ssed at SD, even though he was just hanging on for the ride - he gambled that they would chase harder and he lost. He needs find some better form of his own by the Pyrenees.

Popo and Contador where impressive today. Rassmussen still has legs but I have the feeling he won't be able to hold on in the Pyrenees. Same with Evans. I think Valverde is looking at the podium if he doesn't crash out.

Still, it's a long way to Paris and allot can change by then. I think the climbers will be happy to sit back and ride out of the wind for the next few days.

I'd add Contador.......assuming that youth hasn'tspent all his matches.

The wild card is still the Pyrenes....they are different kind of climbing.

Levi is riding well within himself. I hope it's part of some plan but we will certainly see.

Len

Good thoughts. There was almost a good 'sorting out' of the leaderboard today. Instead a few players just got shuffled out of the game.

Contador was strongest today. His move to the top of the Galibier was impressive. He will surely make time up on the uphill finishes. I believe his TTing is decent too. The big wildcard is his young legs and exuberance.

Cadel - he joined Contador on the breakaway and tried to wheelsuck. Contador would have none of it and forced him to take the front. In another case, Cadel let the 'leaders' group split up. Then Cadel wouldn't close the gap and chaos reigned in that group. It was almost a disaster.

Vino and Menchov out. That means Kloden and Rasmussen are the leaders. Also, it's clear that Contador is superior to Levi.

fc

All this makes me look back at what Armstrong was able to do with even more amazement.

Crush 'em in the time trials, lay waste to them in the mountains.

That means Kloden and Rasmussen are the leaders. Also, it's clear that Contador is superior to Levi.

fc

clear to me that Contador is stronger than Levi. I think Brunyeel sent Contador out today to try to "Red line" some of the contenders. He also allowed Levi to sit in.

Levi is in this for the full tour....Contador is a wild card at this point. Let's see what he does in the Pyrenees.

I'd agree that Kloden needs to be watched but he's in no better shape than Levi.....although he could be a better TTer.

Rasmussen showed what is going to happen to him the rest of the tour......he won't get away enough to make up for all the time he'ss lose in the TT's.

No one is mentioning Sastre......but he looked as strong as anyone today and rode well within himself. He loves the Pyrenees.

Len

contador can tt decently well

he beat both evans and valverde in the prologue.

as francois said, he is young, and who knows how he will be in the 3rd week. the pyrenes are a different type of climbing, however somewhere (cn maybe? pez?) was saying they tend to favor the spaniards.

i wouldnt count him out yet. at the moment he appears to be the "best" shot disco has at a top spot. who knows how he will detoriorate at the tour continues and as levi continues to work into form.

tours (NOT) This year has been better than any tour I have ever seen. I don't think we'll know the winner until the last TT.

everyone count Landis out last year until he blew everyone always on stage 17?? so Vino still alive and he could gain some minutes back on stage 13th ( TT ) until then he'll have 3 days to let his ailing knees rest. i still believe stage 14th will decide who'll going win it all. in 2002 and 2004 it did help Lance won his 4th and 6th tours. and i expect Vino going ALL-OUT come Sunday.

Rasmussen was 7'47" behind LA on his ill-fated 2005 TT. He could easily lose more than 4 minutes per TT to the top guys this year, especially at 50+ km where it's very hard mentally for the non-specialists.

All this makes me look back at what Armstrong was able to do with even more amazement.

Crush 'em in the time trials, lay waste to them in the mountains.


+1 ...

I'll just point out that before the tour started my podium was:
1.Kloden
2. Valverde
3. Evans


Looking pretty good except for Kloden getting himself stuck helping Vino a couple days ago. He will definitely gain time in the TTs, so if he can climb like he was in '04 and '06, he should still be able to overcome his deficit.

All this makes me look back at what Armstrong was able to do with even more amazement.

Crush 'em in the time trials, lay waste to them in the mountains.

Most tour winners had that ability ... Armstong had the extreme fortune of not having very many problems, and the few that he did, he managed himself very well.

Whoever bought Landis up should go hide their head. Did you forget that stage 17 is the one he tested positive for?

clear to me that Contador is stronger than Levi. I think Brunyeel sent Contador out today to try to "Red line" some of the contenders. He also allowed Levi to sit in.

After today, I think Levi's stock went up quite a bit. He stayed right with the GC guys. Contador looks strong and he's going to be a valuable asset when the fireworks start in the Pyrenees. Popo put in a solid ride in the break and he'll be called on to drive the pace when Brunyeel pulls the trigger. Mark my words, there's going to be a stage where Hincapie, Gusev, Popo, and Contador pace Levi up the hill as far as they can and Levi will be left to seal the deal. The big question is whether he can pull it off.

Evans looks good. It was nice to see him animate the race a bit. Moreau was flat today after his effort on Sunday and a rest day. I hope he can keep form through the Pyrenees. Valverde is strong. I wonder if he's being too reactive/deferential.

Funny how Levi was p*ssed at SD, even though he was just hanging on for the ride - he gambled that they would chase harder and he lost.

Who is SD?

Who is SD?

Saunier Duval. More specifically, Juan Jose Cobo. Cobo was in the 4rth group of leaders and proteting Mayo. When that group got split off from Rasmussen and Valverde, chaos ensued.

Cobo would not work do get back to Rasmussen. Levi didn't understand why. Levi on the other hand was not supposed to work since the 2nd group contained his team mates Contador and Popovych.

fc

Did Contador and Popovych wait for Levi??

Here's the landscape. There were three groups:
- contador and popovych
- rasmussen, valverde, valverde's team mate, rider
- kloden, levi, moreau, cadel. mayo, mayo team mate.

They were all spread on the descent and looked poised for some time differences on the finish.

First Contador's group gets caught by Rasmussen's. Now instead of that group gaining horsepower and speed, it seemed to slow down. It seemed to let the Levi group catch on pretty quickly.

All out racing or a little help for Levi?

fc

Mark my words, there's going to be a stage where Hincapie, Gusev, Popo, and Contador pace Levi up the hill as far as they can and Levi will be left to seal the deal. The big question is whether he can pull it off.

I have to agree... Disco knows how to win the Tour when it comes right down to it. It's clear that unlike during the Armstrong years, there's no clear patron and no one team wants to take responsibility the way that Postal/Disco used to do.

However, when it comes right down to it that's how to win the Tour. I think that the decision will be made after the ITT - if Levi is still within striking distance watch Disco pull some old moves out of the playbook. They'll pick the hardest sumit finish & put the train on the front with guys like Hincapie, Gusev, Popo & Contador at the head. They'll try and shatter the field at the bottom of the final climb and then try and launch Levi.

It's worked in the past, and it will again (assuming Levi can deliver the goods).

the chicken will put out a fight but in the end, his goose will be cooked.

the guy is a monster in the hills but the way he rides, i think he'll have a bad day in the mountains as well. Consider that with his less then sub par TT skills and he'll be lucky to hang onto the podium at all.

Evans and Valverde both have the head smarts and are very similar in stregnths. These two will have a nice battle.

Moreau can't win, he's french.

Kloden, i think he's a good wild card. With Vino out, the team should get behind him no doubt.

If Frank Schelck is gifted some time he can mix it up.

really the tour is far from over (unless you're vino)

as far as Levi, he's been hyped up more the danielson was for this tour! If he wants to win this thing some day he's got a ways to improve first. I don' t think he's on the level with Evans, Valverde, or Vino, but thats just me

Saunier Duval. More specifically, Juan Jose Cobo.
Got it. I was racking my brain trying to think of a rider with those initials.

Did Contador and Popovych wait for Levi??

Here's the landscape. There were three groups:
- contador and popovych
- rasmussen, valverde, valverde's team mate, rider
- kloden, levi, moreau, cadel. mayo, mayo team mate.

They were all spread on the descent and looked poised for some time differences on the finish.

First Contador's group gets caught by Rasmussen's. Now instead of that group gaining horsepower and speed, it seemed to slow down. It seemed to let the Levi group catch on pretty quickly.

All out racing or a little help for Levi?
fc



That was all out racing. It looked like the descent wasn't very technical nor steep so a paceline helped them down. When Mayo and Levi got latched off the back Rasmussen and Valverde, as well as his teammate spent lots of energy to try and break away for the silly mistake by the rear group which in turn let them catch the disco duo. After the catch the front group look to take a breather and disco didnt continue the chase for soler after being caught intitially. The rear group caught back on and popo tried to break the group.

Did Contador and Popovych wait for Levi??

Here's the landscape. There were three groups:
- contador and popovych
- rasmussen, valverde, valverde's team mate, rider
- kloden, levi, moreau, cadel. mayo, mayo team mate.

They were all spread on the descent and looked poised for some time differences on the finish.

First Contador's group gets caught by Rasmussen's. Now instead of that group gaining horsepower and speed, it seemed to slow down. It seemed to let the Levi group catch on pretty quickly.

All out racing or a little help for Levi?

fc

help for LL. I think they both looked back for him when the first chase group joined.

I think JB is using these guys to sow discord/confusion among the contenders. From the beginning LL was their GC guy. I don't see JB changing that.

Discovery was impressive today. With Popo back on his game, there's no other team that is as deep in the mountains. Contador may be burning too many matches too early, but man is it fun to watch that kid burn.

Levi's weakest link is himself. He has to decide to stamp his authority, in the words of a certain Texan. Evans is taking more risks, but almost seems determined to make enemies and make it hard for himself. The gap he let open was one more example of why Levi needs to be more attentive and less of a passenger if he wants to win.

Im not sure if he is really sitting in the group, it seems as if he is always on his limit on the climb. You never see any explosiveness from him at all. He just mantains a speed. I hope to see more attacks from him later. It is also visible that his form is moving foward which is a good sign.

Oscar Pereiro usually does good the 3rd week. I'd like to see him get a nice break. I'm still rootin' for Sastre too.

well, should be ' quite ' next 3 days until saturday. my pre-tour prediction was Valverde, Vino and levi. so i need Vino to go " loco " come this weekend and his knees should be back 100%.

after watching evans in prior tour and finding him as exciting as flat warm beer i was a bit surprised to see, what was for him, a crazy aggresive stage. for others it would have been pretty normal. could he be feeling the possibility? he has, in horner, a top notch domestique, decent time trial abilities and sadly, no further distraction from McEwen. the key will be IMO stg 10. even though it will be only a couple each cat3, 4 climbs and 2 sprints if he continues his vaguely aggresive demeanor and recovers from his apparently somewhat blown apperance during the Versus interview then he might stand a good chance.