1 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 43.52.48
2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.35
3 Iban Mayo Diez (Spa) Saunier Duval - Prodir 2.39
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 2.41
5 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.08
6 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2r Prévoyance 3.18
7 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 3.39
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 3.50
9 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.53

So considering these guys the only one's left in the podium hunt barring some sort of successful tactical escape by someone further back that puts them back in the picture...

In last year's first TT Evans, Moreau, Sastre & Kloden all rode more or less the same finishing within about 30 seconds of one another. Mayo lost about 3:30 to them but seems a reinvigorated rider this year. Leipheimer lost 4 minutes. Rasmussen lost 4:30. Valverde had crashed out by then. Contador wasn't in the race.

Levi had better not lose 4 stinking minutes this time or he has no business being the protected team leader.

I'm just sayin'........

The other thing to think about is who has attacked, chased, crashed or been off the front burning energy this year?

The Chicken, Valverde, Mayo, Contador, Moreau and even Evens have attacked or been off the front. Kloden has crashed and worked for the team leader as well as chased back on after a crash. I think that leaves Levi and Sastre as the least worked.

Good stuff this thinking about "what ifs" and "maybes".

is that mean Evans will be in yellow before Pyrenee??

is that mean Evans will be in yellow before Pyrenee??

I wouldn't discount Valverde. He only lost 20 seconds to Vino in the final 27km TT of the Vuelta when Vino was very strong. He put a couple of tens of seconds into Sastre and Karpets, even more into Kashechkin.

Of course this is a different race, and form comes and goes, but given how strong Valverde has been on the climbs I think it reasonable expectation that he will be in the hunt and perhaps the favorite to take yellow on the stage.

It seems as Cadel has been trying to be aggressive which is good to see. We will have to see how that effects his body with the time trial coming up. We will see if his form is rising or fading. I really see Levi getting stronger every day which is a good sign for him. I really think he will be strong in the third week. On GC, I see Kloden as being one of the top TT'ist. Vino is sketchy with his injury, but he will ride a fair TT and we will see him in the pyrenees.

I think Sastre is in a good spot.

Wasn't there an issue with Levi last year......sickness or something.....my memory fails me.

Kloden has shown he can TT but he has been working hard for Vino.....it will be interesting to seewhat he does.

Valverde has looked very strong but has he expended too much energy.

Contador is a wild card. so young.

Rasmussen...........loses yellow.

Len

Levi had better not lose 4 stinking minutes this time or he has no business being the protected team leader.

I'm just sayin'........

The other thing to think about is who has attacked, chased, crashed or been off the front burning energy this year?

The Chicken, Valverde, Mayo, Contador, Moreau and even Evens have attacked or been off the front. Kloden has crashed and worked for the team leader as well as chased back on after a crash. I think that leaves Levi and Sastre as the least worked.

Good stuff this thinking about "what ifs" and "maybes".

I so wish you would have said "The Chicken with Mayo, Valverde..." :idea:

Assuming GC stays where it's at by start of Saturday... (And only talking about top 10 in GC)

#2 Valverde is decent at TT, and would need to put 2:35 into Rasmussen. I think that is right around where he'll be.

#3 Mayo. He might surprise and put down a decent TT, however he will at best gain a minute to 90 seconds on Rasmussen, and will lose time to the big GC names.

#4 Evans needs 2:41 on Chicken, and he'll do that easy. He'll probably get another minute on Valverde (2006 Romandie when he took yellow from Valv in last TT).

#5 Contador needs 3:08. He'll gain time on Rasmussen, but not that much. Looking at some results of Contador, aside from Rasmussen he might be the weakest TTer in the top 10.

#6 Moreau @ 3:18. At one point he was handy against the clock. He is on some form now, but age is against him. I'll give him 2:45 on Rasmussen.

#7 Sastre @3:39. I'm not real familiar with his TT abilities. I'll give him middle of the pack in this group, however that's really based on me not knowing him as a TTer and being too lazy to go look up a bunch of his past results.

#8 Kloden @3:50. Ahh, here's my guy. He is ruing the day he had to pace Vino up, only to see it was a waste. He probably left a minute on the table there. He should still take that kind of time out on Rasmussen though. Aside from Cancellara, I think Kloden is the cream of the crop for the TT, so I could see him gaining 5 minutes on yellow here.

Leipheimer is a big question mark. I've seen him do well in TTs, however last year he was just awful in the Tour.

Based on my predictions above, after Saturday I think it'll be a coin toss between Evans and Kloden in yellow, Valverde in 3rd.

Rasmussen, Moreau, Sastre, Mayo, Contador filling places 4 - 8 (not necessarily in that order).

As an aside, none will win the stage. Cancellara will dominate that. Might even see Zabriskie remember he can TT and end up third between Kloden and Evans (for the stage).