Finally, after 13 days we have a stage of real consequence!! We will be treated to a Category 1 and a Beyond Category climb at the finish.

Who's getting up tomorrow to watch this live??

What are your predictions? Top 5 finishers and gaps???

<img src="http://www.velonews.com/images/news/6333.8175.f.jpg">

francois

Jan will throw down a scorching attack right of the start. His lead will reach 12 minutes but will be reduced to 11 by the time he wins the stage.

Finally, after 13 days we have a stage of real consequence!! We will be treated to a Category 1 and a Beyond Category climb at the finish.

Who's getting up tomorrow to watch this live??

What are your predictions? Top 5 finishers and gaps???

<img src="http://www.velonews.com/images/news/6333.8175.f.jpg">

francois

Mayo. He says he wants it.

respect from this tour tomorrow. They will place a few in the final selection and the Tyler, basso, Guterrez and a few others will make the cut as well. Hard to say between Jan and Lance neither rider has shown any cards yet. I want to say they will finish together witht he same time.

I am off from work and th TV will be on at 8:30 a.m.

finally, a legit stage - I hope all this conservative riding comes to and end tomorrow....
if Mayo wins and I have to witness "all the leaders come in with the same time...." I am going to be pissed ;0

-Nik

Finally, after 13 days we have a stage of real consequence!! We will be treated to a Category 1 and a Beyond Category climb at the finish.

Who's getting up tomorrow to watch this live??

What are your predictions? Top 5 finishers and gaps???

<img src="http://www.velonews.com/images/news/6333.8175.f.jpg">

francois
He's got the team to protect him and keep all the GC contenders under control for the flatter part of the stage. The field will split on Aspin, separating the wheat from the chaf, with maybe someone like Mayo taking a lead. However, the strong teams will have their climbers regroup on the descent and the battle will be on up La Mongie. Lance wins this one, mainly on the strength of the team allowing him to conserve energy and supporting him on the two climbs until he can unleash himself 2/3rd's of the way up La Mongie.

Hamilton, Ullrich, Mayo and maybe Heras, not necessarily in that order. Of course, there will be a wild card or two in the bunch to spice things up.

I think they all let Mayo go cus he is the only contender not in contention - why use energy chasing him? If Mayo were still a GC threat I might choose Lance for the stage but now I don't see it really.

A lot of the guys who can't win gotta have something toshow for this TDF and they can shoot their wads on this stage.... Lance has to save a little for later...

-Nik

I think they all let Mayo go cus he is the only contender not in contention - why use energy chasing him? If Mayo were still a GC threat I might choose Lance for the stage but now I don't see it really.

A lot of the guys who can't win gotta have something toshow for this TDF and they can shoot their wads on this stage.... Lance has to save a little for later...

-Nik

Yeah, my vote is for Mayo also. I think the other major contenders will be willing to give him a little time if he goes for it. If anyone else (among Ullrich, Armstrong, Hamilton, etc.) were to attack that rider would force the others to dig deep to keep up. However, if Mayo is the one to go, I think the others might just sit watching each other for a bit, and let Mayo take the stage and a bit of time. Not too much time of course.

-Spyky

Oscar Sevilla of Phonak. I think that Mayo, even several minutes down, will be a marked man tomorrow because he still has the ability to get a lot of his time deficit back with his climbing skill. I think that the big boys will be trying to kill each other on the last climb and this could allow someone like Sevilla, who is in fantastic form this year and an excellent climber, to slip away and take the stage win.

They probably won't chase him as I doubt he is viewed as a threatening figure to the 'true' GC contenders. Plus he can't time trial on the flats to save his life.

This has the makings of a great stage. I see the strong teams of Postal, T-Mobil & Phonak keeping the pace fast for the first 150km to hurt the weaker riders and discourage attacks. Many breaks will try and one will get away, but no GC threat will be allowed up the road. The break may get 5-6 minutes by the Col d'Aspin, but the real damage will have already began as a tired peloton is shattered on this climb. A group of 15-20, including LA, Jan, Tyler, Mayo, Basso, Heras, Beltran, Levi, maybe Julich, and an assortment of climbers with Spanish sur-names, will stay together and leave the Yellow Jersey to suffer with the rest. The intial break falls apart and is caught by the base of the final, and epic climb, the La Mongie. In the first 2km of the final climb, Mayo attacks. Heras follows, then Hamilton goes. LA and Jan, who would have been content to let Mayo and Heras go, cannot allow Hamilton up the road, so they follow, with 1-2 others. But only Armstrong can match the acceleration. Quickly, Mayo, Heras, Tyler and LA get :30, then 1:00 on the chasers. Mayo attacks again, but only Heras can match this time, they get :40 on Hamilton/Armstrong, and are 1:30 ahead of a now surging Ullrich. Mayo, riding like a man possessed, with a final, brutal attack that Heras cannot counter, takes the stage. Voeckler remains in Yellow, just barely, after losing 8:20 on the stage:

Mayo 0:00
Heras 0:48
Armstrong 1:24
Hamilton 1:26
Ullrich 1:54

He's got the team to protect him and keep all the GC contenders under control for the flatter part of the stage. The field will split on Aspin, separating the wheat from the chaf, with maybe someone like Mayo taking a lead. However, the strong teams will have their climbers regroup on the descent and the battle will be on up La Mongie. Lance wins this one, mainly on the strength of the team allowing him to conserve energy and supporting him on the two climbs until he can unleash himself 2/3rd's of the way up La Mongie.

Hamilton, Ullrich, Mayo and maybe Heras, not necessarily in that order. Of course, there will be a wild card or two in the bunch to spice things up.

I agree with Mel. I think this is a stage on which Lance will assert his dominance, with a little help from USPS. I suspect that the main GC contenders will be doing their best to create a different outcome but, right now, I'm doubting that anyone but Lance will take it.

Mayo attacks. Heras follows, then Hamilton goes. LA and Jan, who would have been content to let Mayo and Heras go, cannot allow Hamilton up the road, so they follow, with 1-2 others. But only Armstrong can match the acceleration. Quickly, Mayo, Heras, Tyler and LA get :30, then 1:00 on the chasers. Mayo attacks again, but only Heras can match this time, they get :40 on Hamilton/Armstrong, and are 1:30 ahead of a now surging Ullrich. Mayo, riding like a man possessed, with a final, brutal attack that Heras cannot counter, takes the stage. Voeckler remains in Yellow, just barely, after losing 8:20 on the stage:

Mayo 0:00
Heras 0:48
Armstrong 1:24
Hamilton 1:26
Ullrich 1:54
I would cut those time exactly in half. If the thing is being contested as late in the stage as you seem to indicate (and I agree it will) it shouldn't get that out of hand. Although if the attacks are fierce enough, Ullrich might lose as much as you say.

agree with gopokes pretty much....except,

pace will be slow to start with and allow the break of 4-6 to get away.

USPS to hammer on the front about 20k after the feed...soften up the field with 40k of hammering on the flats (I reserve the right to withdraw this pending Pavel P participation). The break will break up and only 2 riders will summit the Aspin ahead of the field. Of course Virenque will leap off the front of the field on top of the Aspin for 3rd place kom points.

The 2 leaders will be caught halfway up the final climb.

I'm looking at Phonak 'saving' itself for Saturday (where Sevilla will attack earlier to force a chase and when caught, Phonak will drive hard).

Hopefully attacks galore, but I don't think that the real GC contenders will be significantly seperated. If it is raining, LA will try his signature excution move, but Heras and Tyler will be the only ones to stay within sight of him (thinking that Mayo will fade in the cold rain).

If it is not raining, the above time splits look good to me. The real GC boys can allow Mayo to get off the front for the win. It's steep enough for LA to put time into JU, so he will be trying.

unless a dangerous rider gets away. Not likely to happen as the course doesn't climb that much until the foot of d'Aspin. Most of the contenders for the green jersey should be on the scene when the peleton reaches the sprint at kilometer 153.5.

I imagine that Mayo, Sevilla and perhaps Heras and Pereiro might start to apply some pressure on d'Aspin, with an attack on the steepest part. In none of the other leaders chase, they have a good chance of staying away on the descent and winning on La Mongie.

This would be a stage suited for Postal tactics BUT for the fact that the climbs are not as steep as some others in the Tour. Lance, Ullrich, Hamilton, et al will use this stage largely to assess their competition.

I think Lance will try to launch his attack on stage 18's Col d'Agnes, the steepest in this year's tour, on Saturday.

Lance said that tomorow's stage doens't really suit him! It sounds like he is prepping everyone for a letdown - This snoozer of a tour had better come alive or I may write a letter!

-Nik

Sevilla will be in-service a la Heras when he was a postie. Pacemaking, tempo only doing a bridge set-up if it's possible. I see LA using Mayo to try to put time into Jan and Tyler.
I'm going Mayo, Lance, Tyler

Until the tactics get underway, it's hard to make a call. The nature and timing of break aways can change things. But, as for how it will unfold: I think Armstrong will follow any of his rivals moves, but make no moves himself (unless he "feels" it on the road or something). So Lance will gain time or stay status quo with any main rivals.

I think someone else will grab the stage. Mayo would be a good bet, but only by 30 seconds or so, max. More likely 10.

If it is the top group at the line, Lance will win the sprint. He seems frisky that way this year.

I have not watched enough this year so far to make much better a guess than that. But I will say this: Saturday Lance will put on a BIG attack. It will be well timed and explosive.

It starts to get REALLY good tomorrow!

Mayo will for sure be dangerous tommorrow. I dont see him winning it but i see him putting Lance and Jan under pressure.

is La Mongie a cat 1 or a HC??? On the above it says HC but the tour site says cat 1

is La Mongie a cat 1 or a HC??? On the above it says HC but the tour site says cat 1

It's a Cat 1 climb. From letour.com: LA MONGIE - 12.8 km climb at 6.8 % - 1e Cat

I picked Ulrich before the tour, but Armstrong is clearly riding better than the rest of the contenders in this year's Tour. Couple that with the Ulrich getting dropped on a mountain stage in a tune-up right before the Tour and Armstrong will be in yellow by the end of the stage. :(

I think lance has been showing through body language that he's ready. Plus Lemond's tirade and the book are just pissing the texan off more and more. I think he's going to take it out on the road fri-sat. I guess I've said this a couple of times now, but this is how i'm reading the race.

Disclaimer: I'm no lance groupie. I'm just a big cycling fan.

Coot!

Mayo, Mancebo, Botero and a couple others - maybe someone from CSC, will break on the Aspin climb. The other GCs will be too busy marking each other and won't bring this group back. Mancebo nips Mayo for the win. Just over a minute lead on the Armstrong group.

Jan will try and run in at the end but Lance will counter. If Heras is around he will counter and take the others by suprise and grab back a few seconds but nothing to worry about. Tyler will be quiet but there. I see Levi falling off in the last few attacks and loosing another minute. Voeckler holds on but looses most of his lead.

Let's throw a few darts at the dart board:

One of the GC contender teams (USPS, T-Mobile, or Phonak) will force an uncomfortably hard pace on the climb to La Mongie.

Armstrong, Ullrich, and Hamilton will stay together until the last km, when Lance will attack and gain 15 seconds.

The stage winner will come from an attack of GC non-threats about halfway up the climb. The winner will be Mayo or my dark-horse pick for the day, Caucchioli.

Heras, Leipheimer, and Virenque will each lose about 1:30 to Armstrong. Virenque will take the maillot jaune.