So much to still digest about stage 12. We got skunked though on stage 12 predictions. A few folks mentioned Lance and someone mentioned Mancebo. Beyond that though the results were pretty surprising.

Stage 13 is a monster with 6 big climbs. Elevation gain is 15,520 feet!!! With today's setup, who will win tomorrow? Who will be the top 5? Who will get demoted to domestique? Who will quit?

<img src="http://www.velonews.com/images/news/6334.8181.f.jpg">

francois

I`m just rooting for The Texan Guy.

Same as today, only more so. There will be fewer riders on the climb up Plateau de Belle. Lance will be one of them. Postal will lead the peloton up to at least the Col de Core, probably up to the Col des Agnees. What's left of the climbers will regroup on the lower slopes of the Plateau de Belle. The remainin Postal climbers will set an unbearable pace up de Belle and shed the pretenders one by one. Armstrong will launch himself in the last quarter of the climb and put some more serious time on just about everyone. He probably won't win but it won't matter. Out with the old and in with the new Yellow Jersey. Sunday has no climbs but is relatively long. Should make a good recovery day and Postal will not let any GC contenders make a break away. Monday is a rest day. Why shouldn't Armstrong bust his ball and try to nail it down on this stage. He looked pretty comfortable going up La Mongie. I don't think he overextended himself at all, saving plenty for tomorrow.

If Armstrong has plenty of gas in the tank, his team forces the tempo and he does more damage on Plateau de Beille. If Armstrong isn't feeling great, his team controls the tempo, marks the GC threats, and lets a few non-threats escape if they can.

Let's take a few guesses:

Ullrich and Hamilton look better than they did on Friday, and limit their Saturday losses to Armstrong to less than one minute.

Basso doesn't recover as well and loses a few minutes. Sastre also won't be as strong as he was Friday.

Kloden continues to be strong and finishes within a minute of Armstrong.

Armstrong wins the stage and takes the maillot jaune, Kloden moves into second, Mancebo third.

That is pretty close to my prediction as well. I think Lance will take out a lot of time on everyone and take the yellow jersey for the rest of the race.

Andrew

I wouldn't count out either Tyler or Jan at this point. Watch for them to attack tomorrow. Why not play hurt and then grind it out on the last climb? Many of you expect them to bow out...or at least have suffered so much that they can't compete. They've been quiet all week, I believe they have the legs for a challenge. Try and catch the Texan off-guard and riding tempo. This race is still a long way from over and I would be cautious of them both tomorrow.

"Stage 13 the only stage that could be a critical result in and of itself. When the camera is on Tyler he has not disappointed yet. With Americans in the theater watching, he will find some enormous strength on the Plateau...but only get a 30 second gap. Maybe the win bonus will put him in yellow. Oh yea, Virenque will go early and grab a bunch of kom points, but Tyler will pass him at 5k to go. Tyler will ask Virenque about 'au bloc' before sprinting away to the win. (reference to '99 Tour smack talk)" see sticky prediction thread.

I'm sticking by TH winning Saturday.

There will be two climbers ahead of LA at the finish, but he will be the best of the GC boys.

A group of Virenque and 5 other poor b@stards will take off in the first 20k. RV will work ok with the group, but sweep up the kom points. He will get the first three climbs atleast for 39 points (running total 134 minimum at end of day). Moreau MIGHT pop in front of the Postal train to get sloppy leftovers (halfway seems he wants bug Virenque for some reason.) A Phonak rider will be in the break that will bug USPS enough to keep the break in check.

Earlier than it should, the USPS train will start falling apart. Beltran will be singing songs in the Autobus much sooner than he should be.

Break captured on the Agnes or before the Plateau. LA isolated on the lower slopes of the climb. Attacks follow from CSC and Phonak and Kloden. Ullrich will count the number of thread in LA's rear tire all the way up. 2-4 climbers will get a group going ahead of the LA group on the upper third of the climb.

I just don't know if LA will ride tempo (weakened from today) or if he will use the 'climber group' as a rabbit/springboard as he has done many times before. If they have 40-70seconds, LA can surge up to them, catch his breath and surge again.

Phonak will win the stage (ok, I'm backing off Hammy a bit here), another Spanish climber second. LA third. Basso has a good day, but not quite as great as today.

Scarponi and Petrov will have another good showing. Voeckler will be out of yellow before the summit of the Agnes.

Armstrong will try to put a stake through his rivals tomorrow. I think he's got the stuff to really drive it, and the next couple of easy days make it a great time to do it. I think Basso will recover more quickly than people expect and remain close - he looked good today. He'll stay close, but lose a little bit of time.

Ullrich will be better tomorrow than today - he'll hang with Lance for most of the stage, with Kloden right alongside. On the final climb, the TMob guys will be hanging tough when LA gives them that over-the-shoulder look and pedals away. JU gets dropped and will be psychologically done for the rest of the Tour. Not sure about Kloden - he may be able to hang. Heras limits his losses, but Hamilton (sad to say - I wanted to see him excel) blows up and loses 2 more minutes at least.

Them's my guesses. Then again, my investment portfolio is a testament to my lack of predictive ability. :-)

I think Mayo and the French darling RV will go for the stage win. Tyler and Jan will just mark LA and stick to his wheel. I think Jan wa in trouble today but not as bad as he would have us believe. I also think Lance made it look tougher that it really was for him.

Matt

This year has seen a big youth movement, but stages like stage 13 (two weeks into a tough tour) may be too much for some with less experience and not fully developed.

Well I've been saying that fri-sat are "Lance brings the hammer" days. Some posters have said that they think Lance may not be that strong and other riders may come back like Tyler and Mayo. I don't agree. My sense is Lance is a level above the rest this year. He has his form from 2002 or maybe even 2001.

Those hanging on to Tyler Hamilton dreams may be disappointed. I love the guy and think he's a fabulous rider. In fact I'm pretty disappointed, becuase I thought he would do better. he may win the stage to La Grand Bornand (sp?) the day after Alp D'Huez.

But there's an issue that has not been talked about much until this point. Stages 1-11 were really hard. That is, the Tour de France is a different sport than the rest of the cycling season. The pace was fast, riders were crashing, the wind, rain, cobbles, and 30+ mph chases during the last hour of a race. it's like doing a shorter version of Milan-San Remo every day for two weeks. The little guys get toasted, because of their lower total power output make then ride at a higher percentage of max sustainable watts on the flats (to combat wind) compared to the more robust riders like Lance or Jan. Jan doesn't ride well in rain, so that's his excuse for his stage 12 performance.

My theory is that Lance can do 475-500 watts for 30 min. Tyler and Mayo are smaller. They may output 360-380 watts for 30 min. So on the flats when it is windy or cobbled or at the end of a stage the climbers have to go full gas, while lance doesn't. Not to mention physiologically the difference in muscle size. Anyways, the watts are probably wrong, but the concept is the point. Little guys (not on EPO) have more trouble with the Tour due to the speeds, weather, and mad finishes.

It's hard to predict a stage winner because of all the variables. Here's my pick. Lance will be the big GC winner and stage winner. I'll stick to my Lance is gonna-reveal-his-hammer theme for fri-sat. Plus he doesn't have a stage win yet, so he'd like some podium time. If it rains it'll be even better for Lance.

This year's Tour could be called

2001 Redux
or
Return of the Hammer

Coot!

Great post! There are a lot of aspects to the Tour that are just plain science and math - then there are the unforeseen variables. They usually cause someone to lose, not win. If all stays status quo, meaning no injuries, crashes, bad mechanicals or sickness, LA cannot be beaten by the likes of Mayo, Tyler and the other smaller riders. They cannot overcome their physical disadvantages. Jan cannot either as he is not built to contend with the likes of LA in the mountains which is where this duel, particularly this years duel, is fought.

Why shouldn't Armstrong bust his ball

:D :D :D :D :D

I didn't catch that until the second read through!

:D :D

All I know for sure is that it would suck to be pasta in France tonight, and there may be an egg or two cracked in the morning.

Lance did look a little smoked coming to the line today. It was the first big climbs, so maybe he wasn't at his best. Still he looked very controled. I'm betting he'll have his legs under him tomorrow.

All I know for sure is that it would suck to be pasta in France tonight, and there may be an egg or two cracked in the morning.

Lance did look a little smoked coming to the line today. It was the first big climbs, so maybe he wasn't at his best. Still he looked very controled. I'm betting he'll have his legs under him tomorrow.

Ha, ha, ha. good one. A horde of ravioli was seen running from the team kitchen.

The MVPs of tonight are the team masseuse. "Ah yes, give me a 3-hour massage until I fall asleep. Then wake me up, stick pasta in my mouth and give me another massage."

francois

Don't these riders know what I said yesterday?

Virenque did not make the breaks (he did try hard, was not allowed to go), but was still jumping out of the pack for points.

Hammy retires. I was hoping for just a bad day and a rebound. I'll stick with a Phonak rider winning today...they might be rested from waiting yesterday.

I hope USPS does not fall apart and isolate LA, but we will see soon.

As writing, Mayo tries to abandon, gets put back on his bike and pushed up the hill...Illbares rider pushes him...Fassa rider pushes...ha, no one is letting him go. Oh, grab the car for a 'mechanical' during the steepest part of the climb...HA.

How else are the gonna make a mockery of me? Don't they know who I am? (a nobody...)

Armstrong will try to put a stake through his rivals tomorrow. I think he's got the stuff to really drive it, and the next couple of easy days make it a great time to do it. I think Basso will recover more quickly than people expect and remain close - he looked good today. He'll stay close, but lose a little bit of time.

Ullrich will be better tomorrow than today - he'll hang with Lance for most of the stage, with Kloden right alongside. On the final climb, the TMob guys will be hanging tough when LA gives them that over-the-shoulder look and pedals away. JU gets dropped and will be psychologically done for the rest of the Tour. Not sure about Kloden - he may be able to hang. Heras limits his losses, but Hamilton (sad to say - I wanted to see him excel) blows up and loses 2 more minutes at least.

Them's my guesses. Then again, my investment portfolio is a testament to my lack of predictive ability. :-)
You were closer than anyone else in your predictions. Very nice. You only missed on the Mayo front.

You were closer than anyone else in your predictions. Very nice. You only missed on the Mayo front.

Thanks. Yeah, that was decently close. If only it worked on the stock market. :)