Are we reaching the theoretical maximum for number of gears?
I am thinking on splashing out some big money for a really shiny groupset, but don't want to find that it is obsolete a few months later and they aren't making replacements any more (as has happened a couple of times with MTB gruppos i used to use!)

What do you reckon? where are the big advances going to come from in the next few years? Shifting by wire??

Shimano has a patent on a 14 speed rear...I wouldn't count on it..

Once Shimano and Campy sales of 10 speed start to level out, you'll see 11 speed

Are we reaching the theoretical maximum for number of gears?
I am thinking on splashing out some big money for a really shiny groupset, but don't want to find that it is obsolete a few months later and they aren't making replacements any more (as has happened a couple of times with MTB gruppos i used to use!)

What do you reckon? where are the big advances going to come from in the next few years? Shifting by wire??

Electronic is probably the next big deal--Campy is apparently pretty close on an electronic group. Some of the TdF riders used it and liked it. I'm not saying I'd go down that road, but I think it's probably the next big thing.

As to your concern of obsolescence, I wouldn't sweat it that much. You'll be able to get parts for just about anything for a few years after it's the new hotness. Don't buy anything that's already been superceded if you're really concerned, but otherwise I think it's not worth sweating. Do you want the groupset to ride, or to have the absolute latest and greatest? The first is easy, the second will only last you a season at most.

It's my understanding that at least one of the large manufacturers has a patent for an 11 or 12 speed set up. Does anybody need it? Who knows, for that matter who really cares? A 12 speed set up would give you 1 tooth jumps all the way on a 12/23 cassette, which some people might like.

This would be easy to do with 135mm spacing that's already used on mountain bikes. A slight adjustment to MTB hubs and there you go. The chain size could remain the same, but cross chaining might become a bit more of a problem.

With all that said, 10 speed will be around for a while. Well, at least long enough to wear out a 10 speed set up should you decide to go that route.

So therefore they will release the intermediate numbers over the next few years as well :mad2:

The thing is - i don't feel like i need any more than 10!! I've been told i shouldn't use all of those anyway (chain line issues). Ahhhh bring back my old 5 speed MBK (Not! :D )

Shimano has a patent on a 14 speed rear...I wouldn't count on it..

Once Shimano and Campy sales of 10 speed start to level out, you'll see 11 speed

Man. 11 speed would be a straight block on 12-23. I already shift my 10 speed setup two cogs at a go most of the time because I cut my teeth on 6 and 7 speed and a single cog doesn't feel like I shifted at all. Who needs it?

Are we reaching the theoretical maximum for number of gears?
I am thinking on splashing out some big money for a really shiny groupset, but don't want to find that it is obsolete a few months later and they aren't making replacements any more (as has happened a couple of times with MTB gruppos i used to use!)

What do you reckon? where are the big advances going to come from in the next few years? Shifting by wire??
..."obsolete a few months later and they aren't making replacements any more (as has happened a couple of times with MTB gruppos ..." What did you buy, Campy MTB? - TF

Nah - it was XT 7 or 8 speed i think. 9 speed came out and all of a sudden it became much harder to find stuff (Especially at the rate i was breaking things at the time). Yeah you CAN get things, but it would be nice if you didn't have to look so hard.

Nah - it was XT 7 or 8 speed i think. 9 speed came out and all of a sudden it became much harder to find stuff (Especially at the rate i was breaking things at the time). Yeah you CAN get things, but it would be nice if you didn't have to look so hard.8 speed MTB stuff is VERY easy to find. Most 9spd stuff is around too for road bikes.

I am going to go out on a limb and say 10spd will be the limit with drivetrains as we now know. I think 12-20spd geraring will arrvive soon, but this will come more form an internal gearing hub similar to a Roholff (?) but much smaller and lighter.

Like others said, Electronic Shifting will probaly be here for the 2009 Groupsets from Campagnolo AND Shimano. eDura-Ace is about reay to go form rumors and Campy's E-System is also about perfected.

The last week of the TDF they even showcased Shimano's Electronic shifting with the gear setting in LCD on top of the hoods. The battery was mounted near the bottom on the down tube about half the size of a pack of cards, it was supposed to last something like 50 hrs and recharge in 2 hrs. The reporter said that most teams had two sets of either Shimano or Campy.

Manufacturers will always have something else to sell you, and there will always be someone willing to buy it. Doesn't matter if it makes sense or not. It's mostly about style & bling. I started riding when derailleur pulleys didn't even have teeth. It was a lot of years before 6 speeds came along, followed in quick succession by 7, 8, 9, & 10. Where will it end? Cranks with 4 chain rings? 14 speed rear blocks? IMO, it's just nutz! My newest bike is an 8 speed rear, double chainring front, and I don't even use all of those.

So....yeah, there'll always be something coming down the pike.

I for one, welcome our 11 speed overlords...

a 10% increase in the number of cogs! And it goes to 11...

'nuff said; I'd hit it. I would love to be 10% faster. Or I might wait until the 14 speed, and be 40% faster..

This'll be perfect to go with my helium filled carbonite frame. I can't believe you guys are actually debating this...

I am going to go out on a limb and say 10spd will be the limit with drivetrains as we now know. I think 12-20spd geraring will arrvive soon, but this will come more form an internal gearing hub similar to a Roholff (?) but much smaller and lighter.

I think you might be right in the general direction of thinking. If they came out with a 14 speed rear internally geared hub you could duplicate the current gearing on a 20 speed bike.

This would do several things.

1. Eliminate the need for a front dérailleur since you would only need one chain ring up front.

2. Eliminate the rear dérailleur.

3. Allow more flexibility in hood/shifter/brake design for better ergonomics

4. Fits well in the future of electronic shifting. I would think you could shift easily with electronic shifting in an internally geared hub. This would also make for easy wheel changes in races and such. You could run it off of a battery and integrate a small generator into the hub so when you were coasting it would re-charge the battery a little, thus extending the life of the shifting battery.

5. You could integrate a power meter into the hub for a really complicated system. Then they could make you purchase a computer with the hub for even more sales.

6. Overall, if done well would be lighter, less complicated, less exposed to the elements and allow for more design flexibility.

The next several years should be interesting to see what comes out.

6. Overall, if done well would be lighter, less complicated, less exposed to the elements and allow for more design flexibility.



Surely an internally geared hub is MORE complicated than a rear derailler. For the user it might be simple, as there's not likely to be any adjustment to speak of, but for servicing, ack. No user-serviceable parts inside.

Derailler systems are really QUITE simple. That doesn't mean they're easy to adjust or maintain, but simplicity is all there.

And I think it'll be a while before an internally geared hub is lighter than a conventional freehub/cassette of the same range, and at anything remotely like a comparable price point.

Just my $.02.

Nah - it was XT 7 or 8 speed i think. 9 speed came out and all of a sudden it became much harder to find stuff (Especially at the rate i was breaking things at the time). Yeah you CAN get things, but it would be nice if you didn't have to look so hard.



Ha Ha Ha you obviously didn't look hard enough:eek: you can still by LX 7 and XT 8's

Surely an internally geared hub is MORE complicated than a rear derailler. For the user it might be simple, as there's not likely to be any adjustment to speak of, but for servicing, ack. No user-serviceable parts inside.

Derailler systems are really QUITE simple. That doesn't mean they're easy to adjust or maintain, but simplicity is all there.

And I think it'll be a while before an internally geared hub is lighter than a conventional freehub/cassette of the same range, and at anything remotely like a comparable price point.

Just my $.02.

I agree.....For the user it's less complicated, for the actual mechanics it's more complicated.

I also agree that an internally geared hub won't be as light as a normal hub....Ever!

However, when you start talking about taking away the front derailleur, one of the front chainrings, all but one of the rear cogs, the rear derailleur, all of the shifting mechanism out of the front shifters hood, the extra cable going to the front derailleur, the extra material needed for the derailleur hanger, etc.

The overall weight can be lighter than that of a tradational set up (if done right it could be significant as far as the cycling world is concerned).

Internally geared hubs, unless they have been able to fix the problem have energy transfer losses. Not huge, but there is a difference between them, and a standard setup. Probably nothing a commuter or recreational rider, but you would never sell a setup like that to racers.

You mean like a Rohloff? http://www.rohloff.de/en/products/speedhub/index.html Not road bike spacing but you'd have to go with mountain bike spacing anyway to cram 14 speeds into the hub like this. It's a weight penalty but it's also fairly maintenance free (change the oil, probably not even once a year for road use), great for touring but not likely racing material.

Edit: They're also really tough SOB's. Been used in MTB circles for years and that's a lot harder on equipment than any wussy road bike ride.

10's my limit.

10's my limit.

Said like a true Luddite:wink5:

Even Spinal Tap went to 11.

Internally geared hubs, unless they have been able to fix the problem have energy transfer losses. Not huge, but there is a difference between them, and a standard setup. Probably nothing a commuter or recreational rider, but you would never sell a setup like that to racers.

As I've said, they are not ready for the road....."Yet"....But I can see them as the possible future for road bikes. Continue working on the models already in use, reducing the weight and friction of the models and sooner or later they will become a better option than the current set up.

You mean like a Rohloff? http://www.rohloff.de/en/products/speedhub/index.html Not road bike spacing but you'd have to go with mountain bike spacing anyway to cram 14 speeds into the hub like this. It's a weight penalty but it's also fairly maintenance free (change the oil, probably not even once a year for road use), great for touring but not likely racing material.

Edit: They're also really tough SOB's. Been used in MTB circles for years and that's a lot harder on equipment than any wussy road bike ride.


Yup....The Rohloff's have been around for a while and have been proven to be reliable. They just need to continue working on the basic design. Make them lighter, lower the internal friction and they could be the future for road bikes. Maybe not Rohloff, but somebody like Shimano, Campy or SRAM could pull it off.

The end result would be a lighter, simpler and less maintenance intensive system than what is currently out there. It just needs work....:cool:

No worries with the user having to service a shimano designed internaly geared hub. They'll be sure to design it as a disposable item with no user serviceable parts. :D