View Full Version : Who's capable of winning all 5 monuments?


Einstruzende
04-18-2008, 11:12 AM
It seems these days we have guys that ride Milan San-Remo through Paris-Roubaix (Boonen, Cancellara, Ballan, Pozzato) and then you have guys that are after the Ardennes + Giro di Lombardia (Rebellin, Valverde, Cunego, Bettini), but no one that seriously trains to excel in both.

Is there anyone racing now that has a shot? Bettini is the first that comes to mind, as he has won 3 of the 5, however because of Boonen he hasn't had the freedom he might like in the Ronde, and he just flat out doesn't ride Paris-Roubaix. I guess it's because of his size.

The the next thought would be Boonen, but he doesn't go after the Ardennes. Is that because he doesn't have to due to the way cycling is set up now (specialization), or are the climbs so much more serious than RvV that he just couldn't win Liege and Lombardia?

Hincapie might have been able to race all of them competitively, however he was on a Tour based team during his prime.

I wonder about Ballan. He seems to be somewhat lighter than other guys that win RvV, so perhaps he would have a shot at Liege.

Anyone have thoughts to this subject?

SilasCL
04-18-2008, 11:23 AM
Nobody racing now could win all 5.

Maybe a couple guys could win 4 of them. Bettini certainly could win Flanders, although I wouldn't bet on it happening. Pozzato could maybe win 4 as well (MSR, RVV, P-R and maybe LBL??).

Cancellara could win Flanders one day to get 3. Cunego and Valverde could win 3.

I think the best type of rider who could win all 5 would be a GT guy like Ullrich. Someone in that mold, but with a bit more of an acceleration could win all 5 even in the modern era. Would they want to do that instead of focusing on GTs? Probably not.

Pablo
04-18-2008, 11:28 AM
I think they have changed the routes of Milan-San Remo, Liege, and Lombardy to make them hillier and made Roubaix more cobble-riffic, increasing specialization needed to win.

Plus, the only three guys to do it sheds some light.

Meckx was a freak.

Van Looy did it a long time ago when there was arguably less competition.

De Vlaemick won Flanders once by drafting a subsequently-disqualified doper in '77 and won Liege and Lombardy when they weren't as hilly.

Pablo
04-18-2008, 11:33 AM
Hincapie might have been able to race all of them competitively, however he was on a Tour based team during his prime.
Has George even won one? No.

There's a huge difference between rdigin them competitively and winning them. By comparison, ask Jan.

Einstruzende
04-18-2008, 11:35 AM
I was going to throw Armstrong out there as someone that could have perhaps. If we go to recent history. It seems like you need someone that is 160-170 pounds and can climb with the elite. Ullrich does indeed fit that mold.

Silas- You really think Pozzato could win LBL? He does not strike me as that type. He is very Boonen-esque in my opinion.

Erik Zabel also comes to mind. Did he every try for LBL?

Einstruzende
04-18-2008, 11:37 AM
Has George even won one? No.

There's a huge difference between rdigin them competitively and winning them. By comparison, ask Jan.


Agreed, but if you can't be competitive you can't win. I was just thinking of people that have a decent sprint, decent climbing, and are of the build that can take the PR pounding. He fits that mold and has some pretty decent placings in those races, in spite of the team he was on and some obvious rotten luck.

Einstruzende
04-18-2008, 11:40 AM
RE: Cunego and Valverde

I can see both of those guys winning LBL and Lombardia. If i'm not mistaken Cunego has already won Lombardia, and both have good placings in Liege.

However, you said they could win 3, and I wonder which is the third? Certainly not Roubaix. I could see Valverde winning a sprint during MSR, but certainly not Cunego. Both would be fine with the hills of Ronde, but how would they take the pounding? I know it's not as rough as PR, I'm just not sure how great that difference is.

Pablo
04-18-2008, 11:42 AM
I think PR is the trick. If you can't win that lottery, you have no hope. The others can be controlled to a greater extent. Ballan, with his ability to climb, and ride the cobbles, comes to mind.

There's another perspectice with periodization. Why would a racer, like Boonen, give up peaking during the Flanders-PR week to risk maybe doing well in different races that his fans care less about and in which he has not as good of a chance to win?

SilasCL
04-18-2008, 11:49 AM
I was going to throw Armstrong out there as someone that could have perhaps. If we go to recent history. It seems like you need someone that is 160-170 pounds and can climb with the elite. Ullrich does indeed fit that mold.

Silas- You really think Pozzato could win LBL? He does not strike me as that type. He is very Boonen-esque in my opinion.

Erik Zabel also comes to mind. Did he every try for LBL?
I don't really think it will happen, but if I had to pick a current racer besides Bettini to win 4 of them, it would be Pozzato.

I think your description of who it would take to do it is spot on.

SilasCL
04-18-2008, 11:51 AM
RE: Cunego and Valverde

I can see both of those guys winning LBL and Lombardia. If i'm not mistaken Cunego has already won Lombardia, and both have good placings in Liege.

However, you said they could win 3, and I wonder which is the third? Certainly not Roubaix. I could see Valverde winning a sprint during MSR, but certainly not Cunego. Both would be fine with the hills of Ronde, but how would they take the pounding? I know it's not as rough as PR, I'm just not sure how great that difference is.
Lombardy, Liege and MSR.

Cunego and Valverde could each win a small group sprint in MSR. Neither of them are in shape at that point of the season, I think they would have to specifically target it to have a chance.

SilasCL
04-18-2008, 11:57 AM
I think PR is the trick. If you can't win that lottery, you have no hope. The others can be controlled to a greater extent. Ballan, with his ability to climb, and ride the cobbles, comes to mind.

There's another perspectice with periodization. Why would a racer, like Boonen, give up peaking during the Flanders-PR week to risk maybe doing well in different races that his fans care less about and in which he has not as good of a chance to win?
Another way to look at it, who was the last P-R winner who you could even call a mediocre climber? I never saw him race, but Sean Kelly would be it I guess.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/apr08/roubaix08/?id=history

Also, if Sean Kelly couldn't win all 5, it ain't going to happen any time soon.

Pablo
04-18-2008, 12:01 PM
Another way to look at it, who was the last P-R winner who you could even call a mediocre climber? I never saw him race, but Sean Kelly would be it I guess.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/apr08/roubaix08/?id=history

Also, if Sean Kelly couldn't win all 5, it ain't going to happen any time soon.
Didn't he win seven Paris-Nices on the trot?

SilasCL
04-18-2008, 12:26 PM
Didn't he win seven Paris-Nices on the trot?
Yeah, and a Vuelta, Tour green jersey, and 9 total monuments.

Einstruzende
04-18-2008, 12:36 PM
Yeah, and a Vuelta, Tour green jersey, and 9 total monuments.

And shortly before that you had Hinault, who actually won what you might consider the hardest of the monuments to win, plus a couple each of LBL and GdL. Wonder if he ever raced the other two?

Einstruzende
04-18-2008, 12:44 PM
I didn't realize Sean Kelly had came so close to winning all 5. He has multiple victories in for of the monuments, and came in 2nd at least once in the Ronde.

Gripped
04-18-2008, 01:52 PM
I didn't realize Sean Kelly had came so close to winning all 5. He has multiple victories in for of the monuments, and came in 2nd at least once in the Ronde.

Yeah, how about his ten month streak from '83-'84?

1st Lombardia ('83)
1st Paris-Nice ('84)
2nd MSR ('84)
2nd RVV ('84)
1st PR ('84)
1st LBL ('84)
Won all three stages of Critérium International ('84)
5th in the Tour and lost the Green on the final day ('84)

That's a storied career for most riders.

Pablo
04-18-2008, 02:08 PM
King Kelly was the man. It's incredible that he didn't win Flanders. I think that's the hardest, bestest race in the world.

Kris Flatlander
04-18-2008, 02:37 PM
I could see Stijn Devolder doing well in the Ardennes/Lombardia, not sure about him in a race like MSR though, but I know he fancies himself a GT contender

EDIT: Oops threw in a negative where there shouldn't have been one

ultimobici
04-18-2008, 03:57 PM
I was going to throw Armstrong out there as someone that could have perhaps.

Erik Zabel also comes to mind. Did he every try for LBL?Don't think LA ever even placed in any of the Monuments bar LBL.

As for Zabel, MSR and that's it. LBL is too hilly as is Lombardia. RVV - maybe.

Of Kelly's era - Lemond.
83 Lombardia - 2nd to Kelly
84 LBL - 3rd to Kelly and Anderson
85 RVV - 7th to Vanderaerden in the worst Ronde in living memory (only 30? of 180 finished)
85 PR - 4th to Madiot in similar conditions
86 MSR - 2nd to Kelly at his peakAdd in a Worlds in 83 a 3rd, 2ns and win in the Tour in 84, 85, & 86 - not too shabby?

As for the current crop - none. not because they are any less talented, just because with improved training better physiological knowledge there is a far bigger pool of contenders. There is not as big a gulf between Campione and Gregarios.

thebadger
04-18-2008, 04:52 PM
Throwing a name out there that hasn't been mentioned because he is capable at Roubaix and has done moderately well Lombardy and Liege. He's a tough man that can climb halfway decent, Vladimir Gusev. Not saying he could win all five but he has good qualities.

I'm not really sure there is an established rider out there right now that could win all. Maybe you need to look to the U23 riders.

Thomas Dekker? Not sure if he would be a Roubaix kind of guy. Seems to fancy himself as more of a possible GT guy.
Lars Boom? CX is getting in the way at the moment but I think he would be capable in Roubaix. Not sure about his climbing.
Edvald Boasson Hagen? Still only twenty and winning. Can he climb at all?

slowdave
04-19-2008, 02:21 AM
O'Grady? he has won the "Lottery", he may be getting a bit long in the tooth but he may have a couple of good years left.

uzziefly
04-19-2008, 03:25 AM
Stijn Devolder.

He's just won a race and given proper support etc, he definitely can be very competitive in such races I guess.

cpark
04-19-2008, 04:01 AM
It seems these days we have guys that ride Milan San-Remo through Paris-Roubaix (Boonen, Cancellara, Ballan, Pozzato) and then you have guys that are after the Ardennes + Giro di Lombardia (Rebellin, Valverde, Cunego, Bettini), but no one that seriously trains to excel in both.

Is there anyone racing now that has a shot? Bettini is the first that comes to mind, as he has won 3 of the 5, however because of Boonen he hasn't had the freedom he might like in the Ronde, and he just flat out doesn't ride Paris-Roubaix. I guess it's because of his size.

The the next thought would be Boonen, but he doesn't go after the Ardennes. Is that because he doesn't have to due to the way cycling is set up now (specialization), or are the climbs so much more serious than RvV that he just couldn't win Liege and Lombardia?

Hincapie might have been able to race all of them competitively, however he was on a Tour based team during his prime.

I wonder about Ballan. He seems to be somewhat lighter than other guys that win RvV, so perhaps he would have a shot at Liege.

Anyone have thoughts to this subject?
I guess anything is possible but I don't think anyone will win all 5 races.
IMO, there is too much time among the races and they will have tough time peaking exact time when the race takes place (through periodization training).
I think most of pro riders will try to peak twice a year and it last about 2 to 3 weeks (I think).
So, if one peaks in Milan San Remo, he will have tough time maintining his form for Paris Roubaix and Fleche/Liege.
And you add the possible bad luck with mechanical issues/crash/illness, it becomes awfully tough to win all 5 races....

Einstruzende
04-19-2008, 04:52 AM
I guess anything is possible but I don't think anyone will win all 5 races.
IMO, there is too much time among the races and they will have tough time peaking exact time when the race takes place (through periodization training).
I think most of pro riders will try to peak twice a year and it last about 2 to 3 weeks (I think).
So, if one peaks in Milan San Remo, he will have tough time maintining his form for Paris Roubaix and Fleche/Liege.
And you add the possible bad luck with mechanical issues/crash/illness, it becomes awfully tough to win all 5 races....

But see, you don't have to win all 5 in a single year. That might be as close to impossible as you can get in pro cycling.

We have had people double up on RvV and PR, so it's feasible that it could happen again. Boonen will also surely win an MSR at some point, which means he would need to all of a sudden figure out a way to climb for the other two. Lets say he did try, and had already won MSR...then at most he'd have to peak once early in the season and once at the end. Of course he'd have to want to do it, and have to transform himself into a better climber which would most likely cost him some sprint speed.

Susan Walker
04-19-2008, 09:27 AM
Rebellin. He's *always* good. (And a doper.)

atpjunkie
04-19-2008, 10:13 AM
is a decent pick but he's never shown anything on the stones.

first you'd have to narrow the filed down to who can win the Ronde and P-R, those are the deal breakers

then select out of those who can climb well enough to take L-B-L, Lombardia

then one must hope they can squeak away on the Poggio to take M-S-R

doesn't leave much, maybe Ballan andhe has an okay sprint

he's won R-V-V
had high placings in P-R
I think he climbs well enough to compete in L-B-L if he chose to

so what doI take away from this

Kelly was a monster
Eddy was a God

mohair_chair
04-19-2008, 11:14 AM
Stijn Devolder.

He's just won a race and given proper support etc, he definitely can be very competitive in such races I guess.

I would second Devolder. Wasn't he classified as a sprinter for most of his time with Disco? He won RVV, and he talks seriously about winning the Vuelta, which I don't think anyone else does these days. I can't find any record of him ever doing MSR, so it's hard to determine if he could win it.

To win all five, you need to be fast, good on cobbles, and a reasonably good climber. Over the last few years, Bettini is definitely the man who is best qualified. I would put George Hincapie as a distant second. George meets the qualifications, but I wouldn't ever expect him to win any of the five. He doesn't have the most tactical mind! I can't think of any other current rider who makes the list.

uzziefly
04-20-2008, 12:19 AM
I would second Devolder. Wasn't he classified as a sprinter for most of his time with Disco? He won RVV, and he talks seriously about winning the Vuelta, which I don't think anyone else does these days. I can't find any record of him ever doing MSR, so it's hard to determine if he could win it.

To win all five, you need to be fast, good on cobbles, and a reasonably good climber. Over the last few years, Bettini is definitely the man who is best qualified. I would put George Hincapie as a distant second. George meets the qualifications, but I wouldn't ever expect him to win any of the five. He doesn't have the most tactical mind! I can't think of any other current rider who makes the list.

Not a sprinter actually. He was more of a classics/grand tour guy supposedly. In actual fact, I agree with this coz he can do the Vuelta as he likes (maybe the reason he likes the Vuelta is coz he doesn't think he can do Le Tour perhaps but yeah. Or maybe coz he wants to focus on the fall classics or something and carry the Vuelta form)

The guy can ride well on cobbles, is definitely good on climbs and could very well do all those races with the right support. Not the fastest sprinter but he can TT pretty well so that would help should he launch an attack properly, albeit he has somewhat of panache for ill-timed attacks. Aggressive rider too.

George Hincapie has the goods. But never got sufficient support as well as had bad luck in such races so..... Yeah.

jukebox
04-20-2008, 08:59 PM
Break down the races and what you have is

MSR- small hills, hard, but not super punishing. Many years all of the sprinters show up together. Assume that most riders capable of winning a monument can sneak away or take the sprint.

RVV- tough hills and cobbles. Just a hell of a hard race, Winner is going to be tough as nails.

Roubaix- Seems to be the dealbreaker, roubaix winners have to be big and sturdy for the cobbles, ie not a climber

Liege- Hilly climby race. The opposite of roubaix.

Lombardy- Longer climbs on this one. Like liege.

Gilbert? Has the chops for the cobbles and is aggressive enough for msr(3rd this year). The biggest problem would be the extended climbing in lombardy. Same with Gusev.

It just doesnt really seem probable that a rider big enough for the cobbles can make it up the climbs for lombardy and liege. But less likely things have happened.

Dwayne Barry
04-21-2008, 05:26 AM
Break down the races and what you have is

Basically you need names who can win Roubaix but climb well enough to win LBL & Lombardy. MSR and Flanders can be won by either type of rider given the right circumstances.

Flanders might be hard for the lighter climber guys but there have been some who have done alright there (e.g. Bartoli, VDB) who also did well in LBL and Lombardy.

I can't think of anyone recently who has shown they could do well in Roubaix and climb well enough to win LBL/Lombardy. Devolder is the only name on paper that I can come up with but I don't believe he's ever done anything at LBL or Lombardy?