The future belongs to the young. And maybe the election, too.

Gallup did a survey among first time voters and determined that they prefer Kerry to Bush by a huge margin, 50% to 35%. First time voters are primarily in the 18-29 year age range.

This is the same population that may have been undersampled in the polls because many of them have only a cell phone and no landline. Zogby's tracking poll, which breaks down the results by demographic group, shows a similar result. Young (18-29) voters have markedly different preferences than the population as a whole.

In six of the ten states surveyed, Kerry leads by double digits. These are Colorado (32%), Florida (22%), New Mexico (28%), Pennsylvania (15%), Wisconsin (16%), and Michigan (32%). In Nevada Kerry's lead is 8%. Bush leads among younger voters in two states: Iowa (4%) and Minnesota (20%). The latter number defies all reason. I wonder if it was a typo. Maybe if enough people ask Zogby to double check this, we'll find out. But the conclusion is clear: if younger voters break with tradition and actually vote in large numbers this time, it could swing the election.

How is Kerry polling with the Emo crowd?

Of course if they assigned gender and age on the basis of where you fit in the polls, I'd be a 48-year-old woman. Except I don't find Tom Selleck all that sexy.