So, clearly Vino is "on form" which brings up the question. Will he work for Ullrich or not. Even Paul Sherwin asked that question out loud during his commentating of the last Stage of the Paris-Nice race (won by Vino). We can look back to the Olympics when he worked for Jan but could have had a chance at the victory himself. Then there's this past year's Le Tour where he finishes on the Podium (along with the rest of his strong season) which clearly puts him amoung the sports elite racers and (IMHO) amoung the 5 riders who have any type of serious shot at the Tour victory.

So what will he do? Will he work, and bide his time for his own shot? How many shots do you get? Would the fact that his close friendship with Kivilev play any role? Who would realize more than Vino that, as evidenced by Kivilev's untimely death, that perhaps he should take his shot sooner rather than later? Does he play the role of the faithful leftenant? Surely he'll have to decide this early on.

I think that this comes down to what length of contract Vino has with T-Mobile. If this is his last year, he may ride for Jan. If he's got more than one year left I'd bet he wouldn't. It just wouldn't be in his best interest to do so. Announcing to the team that he wouldn't in advance would guarantee that he wouldn't ride the Tour.

Thoughts?

BT

judging by the way he rode in Paris-Nice, right now he is aiming at classics. The way he took a flier with 6-8mi to go and won 3 stages he'll be one of the favorites. Telecom was never strong in classics, so he will be in driving seat.

With respect to TdF it is too early to say. Now with Jan back to T-Mobile, huge salary, fat German sausages, Jan may end up being not in at best for tour. He can screw his knees, crash, etc.. it is long time 'till july. My guess Vino will be there looking for opportunity, and if not he can certainly take a couple stage wins. But who knows it may come down to Vino vs Jan showdown and it will hard to predict, I don’t think I’d be so quick to agree with Sherwin.

There’s also a question of Olympics and Vuelta, tour isn’t the only race on calendar. I wish him luck he is a good rider, with legs and brains.

CP

PS it cracks me up every time when Bobke refers to Vino as "kazakh". His comment on last stage that as a rider from former Soviet Union he MAYBE able to communicate with Deni Menshov in the same language was simply hilarious. It is obvious that Vinokurov is russian /the second biggest ethnic group in Kazakhstan/ and very unlikely even knows more then a few word in kazakh.

Vino, vino, vino... you are my new favorite racer.

It is really sad that he is on the same team as Jan. This is a crime. Someone arrest the team manager. Is there some nationalism there to get Jan when there's already a top dog?

I watched Vino last year as a non-believer. "He's too stocky. He won't last, He won't keep up in the climbs. He can't time trial." Well he's all that and more. He's a complete rider a good person and friend (kivilev) and the most courageous rider today.

I shall call him '10k Vino'. If the race finishes with some hills and there's 10k to go. My money is on Vino. The man will pounce like a cat and fight tooth and nail to win. I will argue that NO ONE is better at this game than him right now. No one. Not lance, not jan, not tyler. If it's 10k straight uphill then Lance or Iban will probably win. But sheer guts and determination in an escape. VINO.

According to him, he's got body set to peak at the tour. He wants to win the tour. He deserves a shot at the tour. Why shouldn't he. It's what he needs to be a top dog. He's already a great classics rider.

So the question is, will he work for Jan. A little bit, as long is it doesn't jeopardize his chances. He ain't gonna fetch water and stuff. He will always shadow Jan and look for opportunity. Will he attack Jan, well I don't think so. But if he can cover a breakaway and make time on Jan, he will do so.

Jan vs. Vino
Jan vs. Lance
Beloki vs Lance
Tyler vs. Lance
Mayo vs. Tyler
Tyler vs. Vino

It's going to be a great tour!!!

francois

yes Vino rocks and who'd bet against him once he makes that move? I don't think I've seen him ever reeled in. Those Tour intentions IMHO will be the downfall of T-Mob, they have too much top talent, gonna be hard getting those guys working for one cause

First the obvious, he is a classy, extremely strong rider. He has great tactical sense too. He, Bettini and Boogerd always seem to get in the right break in races, be it stages of Grand Tours or one day classics or World Cups. (I know Boogerd doesn't always know how to finish but he gets close). As far as the Tour goes, I think there will be trouble for T-Mobile and Ullrich and that trouble may come from Vinokourov. His attacking style will be trouble for Jan. I am not implying that he will attack his team leader, rather that when he attacks this year he will be well marked, not only by Postal but Phonak, Rabobank, Liberty Segouros et al. (That may benefit Lance and others, as someone stated earlier.) I believe some, definitely not all, but surely some of the reason he was so close in the GC last year can be traced to opportunism. (see Tour de France Alpe D'Huez stage.) No way Lance and Postal let him go up the road like that again. (Allowing, of course, Lance and Co. have it in their legs to chase him down). So I think a big question to be answered will be, does T-Mobile put all its eggs in the Ullrich basket or do they have "co-captains" (ranking would surely be Ullrich first, Vinokourov a distant second). Another interesting situation I heard about the other night on OLN was that Salvodelli just broke his arm, and Botero went back to Columbia to train (haven't heard too much from either this spring). So Vino may be asked to put aside his aspirations for Tour victory even more now than before due to losing some lieutenants? I do think Vinokourov is classy enough and loyal enough to do the super domestique thing though. Lots of questions all around the Tour, and alot have connections to Vinokourov. I, for one, can't wait to find out the answers come July.

I enjoyed watching Vino in last years Tour. I was really pulling for him. He's looking good this year and Ulrich isn't. If Ulrich can pull it together, then I think Vino will work for him. But if Ulrich faulters, I think the team has to get behind Vino.

While Vino looked super strong in Paris-Nice, I was a little let down by his performance at L-B-L. I'm sure I was expecting too much.

He benefitted greatly last year from being the underdog....and he did not fade at the end. But, he will not get the free ride this year. He will not be allowed to escape (as on L'Alpe) and he will not have other's bad luck aid him (before Beloki crashed, he was being closed in on and would have been brought back, instead, he got 45seconds + bonus for the win).

I hope that Tmobile does not just use him for the classics and flush his Tour hopes.

I forgot who said it and where it was, but someone said that Vino will be attacking, and JU will just sit on LA's wheel waiting for Postal to burn itself out bringing Vino back. Either USPS recaptures Vino (advantage JU) or they don't (advantage Vino) and the 'captain' will be decided on the road. This Tour will be very interesting.

I forgot who said it and where it was, but someone said that Vino will be attacking, and JU will just sit on LA's wheel waiting for Postal to burn itself out bringing Vino back. Either USPS recaptures Vino (advantage JU) or they don't (advantage Vino) and the 'captain' will be decided on the road. This Tour will be very interesting.

That sounds like a great strategy. Two Tour contendors on the same team could either catch Postal slacking and Vino gets away or wear-out Postal and Ullrich gets the win. Sounds like a great Tour

it's tough with 2 chiefs. may split the team akin to L.V.C '86. have to wait and see.

But, Tmobile may have a blessing in disguise with Botero dropping off the face of the Earth and Savodelli's crash.

Let Vino play his hand as antagonist in a tough stage or an overlooked stage. If he earns 4 minutes on the peleton, he earns his shot. But, if he explodes USPS, that is just as good as riding for JU. Either outcome, the rest of Tmobile can sit behind JU or listen on the radio and rest for tougher days. I see 3 days where Vino could play his cards, Stage 10 St Flour (long many small climbs) Stage 14 (after 2 mountain stages and before the rest day, it may be overlooked and underrated) Stage 15 (hard day after the rest day and before the L'Alpe TT). If he does not put significant time into LA/JU, then he will "ride" for JU and save JU for the TT. During those 3 days, I will be more interested in watching Vino than the "2 big fish". (anyway, you know what LA and JU will be doing those days anyway...sitting behind the blue train watching each other and waiting for other stages.)

But, Tmobile may have a blessing in disguise with Botero dropping off the face of the Earth and Savodelli's crash.

Let Vino play his hand as antagonist in a tough stage or an overlooked stage. If he earns 4 minutes on the peleton, he earns his shot. But, if he explodes USPS, that is just as good as riding for JU. Either outcome, the rest of Tmobile can sit behind JU or listen on the radio and rest for tougher days. I see 3 days where Vino could play his cards, Stage 10 St Flour (long many small climbs) Stage 14 (after 2 mountain stages and before the rest day, it may be overlooked and underrated) Stage 15 (hard day after the rest day and before the L'Alpe TT). If he does not put significant time into LA/JU, then he will "ride" for JU and save JU for the TT. During those 3 days, I will be more interested in watching Vino than the "2 big fish". (anyway, you know what LA and JU will be doing those days anyway...sitting behind the blue train watching each other and waiting for other stages.)

I agree with a lot of points made here but
it's too late for Ulrich to wait until 15th stage to get support from Vino - the race is likely to be over by then. TeamMobile not having a clear leader will play to Lance's advantage. Two people on the same team vying for GC podium will probably hurt both of their chances, rather than helping them.

I agree with a lot of points made here but
it's too late for Ulrich to wait until 15th stage to get support from Vino - the race is likely to be over by then. TeamMobile not having a clear leader will play to Lance's advantage. Two people on the same team vying for GC podium will probably hurt both of their chances, rather than helping them.

Well it was far from over in '03 at stage 15, actually the race just started back then. With the way GC contenders preparing for this tour (training for intermediate sprints, etc) they believe race will be very close. Of cause you never know, the fate of tour can be sealed in Guéret, if there's a pile up and crosswinds.

I think Vino will be given free reign entering the tour. If, as the race progresses "big" Jan emerges the stronger, than I imagine Vino will then work for Jan. HOWEVER, judging by 2004 so far, I'd say that is not likely.

Can you imagine Jan working for Vino? I can, and that would be deadly. Jan just powering up the climbs sending contenders off the back and then Vino attacks...

Lots of ifs, but at this stage, I think this may end up being more likely than Vino working for Jan. Jan looks horrible right now.

Well it was far from over in '03 at stage 15, actually the race just started back then. With the way GC contenders preparing for this tour (training for intermediate sprints, etc) they believe race will be very close. Of cause you never know, the fate of tour can be sealed in Guéret, if there's a pile up and crosswinds.

As far as TdF win it was over for everyone, except for Ullrich who still had an outside shot.
And he had full support of his team. Once you start throwing the weight of the team behind different riders the whole thing goes south. It's like when Gonzalez DeGaldeano got yellow and Beloki was made to ride for Gonzalez to defend it.

T-mobile has their hands full with Ullrich and Vino going for GC plus Zabel going for green.
There's only so much the other 6 riders can do to help them. If Vino sacrifices his chances for Ulrich, or the other way around, maybe they have a shot. But if both of them go for the yellow, it's going to favor Lance. It's as if Heras or Rubiera were sitting on Lance in the mountains instead of doing all the work, waiting to take advantage and attack Lance.
In other words - if Vino was riding for some other team, as a leader with good support, then Lance could be in more trouble, since he would have to defend himself against yet another team.

I disagree that Vino is more likely to be a leader - Ulrich is still likely to be the team leader, and Vino is likely to have a "ride steady with Jan, support him in the mountains, but once you get within 3km to the finish line, it's a free for all" type of instructions. It may be better for Jan to have a teammate as compared to being isolated, but the riding styles of the two are different as well - Jan is more of a steady climber, while Vino's signature is to jump away and hang on to a lead, no matter how slight. If Vino can leave Lance behind with a surge, he will DEFINITELY leave Jan as well. On the other hand, I don't see how Jan can run away from Lance without first dropping Vino. Bottom line - I can't see Vino and Jan working together with Lance struggling to keep up.

I think T-mobile will go in with Jan as the sole GC contender. Vino's job will be to put a hurt on Postal. But if Vino happens to get away and put some time on Lance, then the strategy might change, making Vino the GC man. It's not a matter of having two GC contenders. It's just that things may change in the middle and Postal has to be looking both ways.

in CycleSport says it all. "T-Mobile has a tendency to take great riders and turn them into workers, and you can never really turn a racehorse into a donkey and have it be happy" (paraphrase from memory.) If I were Johann I'd let one of them take an early GC then have their team implode trying to defend it. The proofs in the pudding, if ya wanna win GC build a team around GC. It's why Tyler went to Phonak (besides the Swiss Francs), as CSC has too many other ambitions to build a team entirely around 1 person. Look at all the failings of the multi-headed hydras of recent (ONCE Vuelta to name the last). Saeco followed the USPS method (dropping Cippo, focus on Gilberto) to success in the Giro, USPS was succesful in the Vuelta as well (so that's all 2003 GT's), so it's pretty clear to me which method is putting the guy on top of the podium.