Well, Lance has returned to his usual formula. I am mildly disappointed that he didn't try something new, but I am a serious cycling fan (at least relative to other americans). So now that Lance has decided to ride the Tour, I went and took another look at the 2005 Tour de France Parcours. Gotta enjoy what you have!

So here's my armchair read of the 2005 Tour:

My sense is that the course favors Lance Armstrong. The 19k ITT for stage one could see Armstrong put 1.5-2 minutes on the climbers. It's flat, so horsepower is the name of the game here.

Then Lance could put another 2 minutes or so on any GC contender on a weaker team in the TTT. Put this together with the fact that there are no mountain finishes until about stage 10, the pure climbers might get burned before they get their chance. A climber could be 4+ minutes down going into the Alps (hey Spanish climbers, go get a few rolleurs from Belgium). So a climber would need to be superior in the mountains and hold at least a 2-3 min advantage over Armstrong going into the final time trial. That seems like a tall order, and Lance will have to blow up big time for that to happen. It's not impossible, but Lance is the sort to minimize those probabilities.

So it seems like if Lance has the same power as last year, and makes no mistakes it will be tough to beat him. Kloeden and Ullrich look like natural contenders, because both can TT and climb. Armstrong has Ullrich's number though.

Lance is often criticized for not racing more, but it's may be paying off now that he's 33. He has fewer hard miles on his body and mind than those who race year round. Plus he has the performance data to tell him whether or not his power will be at a level he needs to win.

C72

Well, Lance has returned to his usual formula. I am mildly disappointed that he didn't try something new, but I am a serious cycling fan (at least relative to other americans). So now that Lance has decided to ride the Tour, I went and took another look at the 2005 Tour de France Parcours. Gotta enjoy what you have!

So here's my armchair read of the 2005 Tour:

My sense is that the course favors Lance Armstrong. The 19k ITT for stage one could see Armstrong put 1.5-2 minutes on the climbers. It's flat, so horsepower is the name of the game here.

Then Lance could put another 2 minutes or so on any GC contender on a weaker team in the TTT. Put this together with the fact that there are no mountain finishes until about stage 10, the pure climbers might get burned before they get their chance. A climber could be 4+ minutes down going into the Alps (hey Spanish climbers, go get a few rolleurs from Belgium). So a climber would need to be superior in the mountains and hold at least a 2-3 min advantage over Armstrong going into the final time trial. That seems like a tall order, and Lance will have to blow up big time for that to happen. It's not impossible, but Lance is the sort to minimize those probabilities.

So it seems like if Lance has the same power as last year, and makes no mistakes it will be tough to beat him. Kloeden and Ullrich look like natural contenders, because both can TT and climb. Armstrong has Ullrich's number though.

Lance is often criticized for not racing more, but it's may be paying off now that he's 33. He has fewer hard miles on his body and mind than those who race year round. Plus he has the performance data to tell him whether or not his power will be at a level he needs to win.

C72


Great question and the answer we wont know until at least the second week of Le Tour. I would like to think maybe someone will take some chances this year. Floyd being with Phonak could be interesting IF they get in. Kloden showed me somthing last year as well as Basso. But which team is stronger all around? CSC or T Mobile? I ll side with the pink boys, on a better TTT, and the fact that Basso needs to work on his ITT. I want Ulrich to show us something this year, guy rides so afraid all the time man everyones already lost to LA so just make some moves, surprise us! There will always be some surprising riders and teams, but in the end I see LA and Disco putting serious time into everyone on the ITT and though i m NOT one of those "LA Lovers" Lance is still champ and Le Patron until proven otherwise. Heres to hoping its an entertaining race with some real fireworks.
Cheers
Deastin