I read this article yesterday. Hamilton's hearing starts today and is expected to last through Wednesday here in Denver. The article talks about how the Hamilton group is trying to disprove a test that is used extensively in hospitals today with great accuracy. Good luck, Tyler.

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36%257E76%257E2734449,00.html

I didn't do it, it was the one arm man!

just kidding. I think it would be tremendous if he is found innocent and reinstated. I can't think of a better thing that could happen to cycling this year in the USA

The article talks about how the Hamilton group is trying to disprove a test that is used extensively in hospitals today with great accuracy.
There are two kinds of accuracy:

Sensitivity, which measures how well the test does at avoiding false negatives. This is what hospitals care about: you don't want to miss a case of blood exchange between a mother and fetus because there could be bad results. Sensitivity tells you nothing about false positives.There are good publications in the medical literature describing measurements of the sensitivity of this test. This is why hospitals claim that it's known to have great accuracy.
Specificity, which tells you how well the test does at avoiding false positives. This is what Tyler Hamilton is worried about. There is no published measurement of the specificity (false-positive rate) for the test in question. Thus, no one really knows how accurate the test is in this sense.

In general, when you're designing a test you can trade off sensitivity against specificity. The more sensitive you make the test the less specific. For instance, mammograms for breast cancer tend try hard to detect small tumors, so they choose increased sensitivity for decreased specificity. The end result is there are 7 false-positive mammograms for every true-positive one.

In screening for maternal-fetal blood exchange, hospitals make the same type of decision: the consequences of a false negative are much worse than for a false positive, so they can tolerate a high false-positive rate.

In anti-doping testing, the opposite holds. It's much worse to mistakenly punish an innocent rider than to allow a doper to ride. Tyler's line of defense is likely to point to the fact that no one knows the false-positive rate of this test. For all its use in hospitals, no one has ever measured the specificity.

Even so, it seems highly unlikely that purely by chance Tyler would test positive three times (Olympic A; Vuelta A & B), Perez would test positive twice (Vuelta A & B) and no one else would test positive.

I think Tyler has no chance...

Perhaps, if he were attempting to clear himself rather than smear the test then he'd have a chance...

I think Tyler has no chance...

Perhaps, if he were attempting to clear himself rather than smear the test then he'd have a chance...

That's been my assertion all along as well. That if he didn't dope, his best chance is to show that he is one of these "blood chimeras" and that the test what the test was detecting was real, albeit natural.

The circumstantial evidence just seems huge to argue that false positives account for his failed tests, unless one is willing to assert there was some kind of conspiracy to get him and Phonak.

The circumstantial evidence just seems huge to argue that false positives account for his failed tests, unless one is willing to assert there was some kind of conspiracy to get him and Phonak.
Well there was the blackmailer.

Today is Tyler's birthday. Wonder how the hearing is going for him..

Today is Tyler's birthday. Wonder how the hearing is going for him..

I think TH might be going down for this one. We'll see him again in 2 years.

I disagree with a previous poster who said this would be the best thing to happen to USA cycling this year if he gets off. If he does get off, it's going to be on some sort of technicality, and it won't be disproving the positive tests I think. Chances are they'll try to take on the testing protocols and procedures instead of proclaiming his innocence through other scientific means and ways. This is a black mark on USA cycling for someone who was so strongly respected and liked within the peloton and amongst fans. He's dug his own grave I'm afraid. I hope that he is found innocent, but I don't think it likely.

Better stories for USA cycling this year already include:

Jonathan Page showing well at cyclocross world championships along with Ryan Trebon. 2 great stories there.

Hincapie winning KBK this past weekend.

The possible emergence of Danielson as a contender for the Giro this Spring.

Another great year from Bobby Julich possibly? I'm sure Bjarne is motivating as well as before. Same possible good year for Christian Vandvelde, as he's over at CSC now as well.

Any win for Discovery Channel team would be great for American cycling in general, no matter who is doing the winning.

Horner back in Europe, to see what he can do this year.

And so on and so forth... Tyler has lost a lot of credibility with me, and many others that I know as a cyclist. We'll see if he can dig himself out of this one. Not likely in my opinion.

Great post Mag. I couldn't agree with you more. It's a big black eye but at least our sport is doing something about it. Better than can be said of other pro sports. This from a Giants fan...

I think TH might be going down for this one. We'll see him again in 2 years.



Do you think we'll ever see Tyler on the bike again ? At 33 don't you think a 2 year ban pretty much ends it for him. I can't see him coming back to the top of the game with a two year absense at 35+ years of age.

I was thinking even it they clear him today, his riding career may be over. He likely can't find a spot on a team for the 2005 season. Maybe Phonak would clear a spot since they still have some holes, but I'm not so sure they'd want to put on that suit again, it didn't wear so well the first time.

Scot

Do you think we'll ever see Tyler on the bike again ? At 33 don't you think a 2 year ban pretty much ends it for him. I can't see him coming back to the top of the game with a two year absense at 35+ years of age.

I was thinking even it they clear him today, his riding career may be over. He likely can't find a spot on a team for the 2005 season. Maybe Phonak would clear a spot since they still have some holes, but I'm not so sure they'd want to put on that suit again, it didn't wear so well the first time.

Scot


So far Hamilton has said he will return to the sport no matter what including a comeback at age 35 if it comes to that. Talk is cheap at this stage of the game but you never know. Maybe he could shave some time off his ban like Millar did. Technically he was fired about 5 months ago.

Some team will take him back no question. He's been on the podium in the Giro, won a stage in the TdF, he's won L-B-L and the Tour of Switzerland. Not to mention his tainted Gold in Athens. I predict there will be several teams that would pick him up in a heartbeat BUT AT A BARGAIN PRICE, and, of course, Tyler will have to prove that he can compete at the same level, otherwise he'll be used as super-domestique like dozens of other of ex champs in the past.

Some team will take him back no question.

With the current Pro Tour ethics charter, no Pro Tour team will touch him for the next four years. The only way around this is to claim that the positive test came before the four year agreement came into place so it should only apply to riders who failed afterward. There is also a chance that the continental teams will adopt a similar policy. If Hamilton wants to continue to race, it will be on a U.S. domestic team.

I'm hoping Hamilton's lawyers tear the test apart based upon its sketchy research and subjectiveness. When the UCI starts punishing teams for daring to question their tests and policies then it needs to be given a black eye.

Even getting off won't save Hamilton, though.

Maybe I should take some of that back since the pro riders association is rejecting the four year ban, but will a Pro Tour team risk pissing off the UCI by hiring Hamiton after what they did to Phonak?

I'm hoping Hamilton's lawyers tear the test apart based upon its sketchy research and subjectiveness. When the UCI starts punishing teams for daring to question their tests and policies then it needs to be given a black eye.


I'm dying to know why a faulty test only gave false positives for two riders for a total of five times. And those two riders were on the same team.

I might 'believe' Tyler if there were some other false positives were out there. If he gets off, it won't do American cycling any good. In fact, it will do plenty of harm, as he will be seen as just another rich American hiding behind lawyers.

The only good to come out of this case would be if Hamilton, having been convicted, showed some real class and gave his gold medal to Eki. Then Julich would get the silver he deserved.

Do you think we'll ever see Tyler on the bike again ? At 33 don't you think a 2 year ban pretty much ends it for him. I can't see him coming back to the top of the game with a two year absense at 35+ years of age.

I was thinking even it they clear him today, his riding career may be over. He likely can't find a spot on a team for the 2005 season. Maybe Phonak would clear a spot since they still have some holes, but I'm not so sure they'd want to put on that suit again, it didn't wear so well the first time.

Scot

Me thinks Mr. Tyler is done in many ways... doesn't have many 'outs'. Will teams be interested in him?? I'm sure they will... but at much less $$$$$ and would Tyler ride for anything other than a Tour type of team?? Sponsors have dropped him pretty quickly and likely will not return. I see nothing but a sad ending to Tyler's story no matter the out come.

JB

You can't forget about the ProTour ethical charter - they mentioned it in VN the other day. Basically, a rider who gets suspended, can't ride for a ProTour team for a time period equal to the length of their suspension.

e.g. Tyler gets 2 years, which means he'd be 35 on his return to racing and 37 when he could sign with a D1/ProTour team again.

He better pray he can overturn this. Otherwise the biggest race he'll ever be in again is USPRO at best.

Great post Mag. I couldn't agree with you more. It's a big black eye but at least our sport is doing something about it. Better than can be said of other pro sports. This from a Giants fan...

No, I think I disagree. What is happening with the sport is that the parameter "luck" has been introduced. Either you are lucky and get away with it, or you get caught. I presume Hamilton was stupid enough to deviate from former regimens with former teams.

Me thinks Mr. Tyler is done in many ways... doesn't have many 'outs'. Will teams be interested in him?? I'm sure they will... but at much less $$$$$ and would Tyler ride for anything other than a Tour type of team?? Sponsors have dropped him pretty quickly and likely will not return. I see nothing but a sad ending to Tyler's story no matter the out come.

JB

Yeah, and even if he is hired by another team, what is he gonna do in the 2 years suspension time? Is it wise to invest all that time in training without knowing whether you get a job or not? Can he even afford to train alone without being on a team?