"My time has come," Heras told the Spanish daily AS. "I'm giving everything for the Tour."

Heras said he's been riding an average of 1000km per week and spending five to six hours a week in the gym to strengthen his upper body.

"I work hard, like always, but this year with the mind set on winning the Tour. I didn't leave the Tour to follow on the same path. I am very ambitious, I feel strong and with the team I have, I can aspire to fight on equal footing against Armstrong and Ullrich for the final victory," he said.

http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/5721.0.html

The boy is serious 1000km a week! Would be nice to see him in yellow after Alpe d'Huez, but can he hold off Lance and Jan in final ITT?

I read article as well. he's doing more weightlifting as well, most likely to build TT power. I think he left USPS 1 year early as this Tour is best suited to him. LAnce called it a climbers Tour so if he has a shot it's this year. I'm sure Manolo put that buzz in his ear, look at the shots of them talking after the Vuelta, especially after stealing the win from ONCE on a Mtn TT and post Saiz suspension it just (to me) looks a little too chummy. I don't know if he can, I'm sure he will have to have enough lead that final ITT is a defensive one, trying to cut losses. I don't think he's gonna do it but will be fun to watch. His one point about LA I found most interesting was when he said (to paraphrase) remember he still won the Tour this year without himself or the team at 100%. I have a sneaking suspicion LA will be back for 6 with a vengeance. I'm looking for the darkhorse (Heras, Tyler....how about Basso?, heck maybe even Simoni) to really tun it up. For some reason I just don't think this Tour will suit Jan and T-Mob, maybe next year.

best case scenario Roberto takes yellow on Alpe d'Huez but looses in final ITT and finishes third behind Lance and Jan. This maybe the hilly tour, however there're only 2 mnt top finishes La Belle and another stage in Pyrenees, recycled from '02. The other mnt stages have rundown finish, and will favor good climbers/descenders like Simoni, Botero, Vino, LA etc. Neither Tylor nor Jan fitting profile but they can ITT pretty well. And let's not talk about Beloki :D Basso is a dark horse but it won't be his tour yet, he will finish on the same level as he finished last year, maybe the one step close to podium

How good descender is Heras? I don't remember ever seeing him go down fast.

Have to admit Manolo is a slave driver: he knows his riders and knows how to prepare and push them over the limit, so Heras will be in the best form in years and Beloki w/o whip will barely make top 10. Too bad the elevator doesn't go to the top floor: I'd bet there will be situation when Saiz will sacrifice Heras' chance to win tour for one extra day in yellow or burn team before they need it.

Now we're up to very exciting tour, it will be even better then last year. LA chances are lower then they had been in years but he is still favorite. BTW, he seems have gained some weight over the winter, have you seen his pics?

last year in Vuelta when they sent floyd ahead who then pulled him down the MTN. he's no Savodelli for sure. True about Tyler and Jan, I guess this is something people don't but should practice more. Merckx was a monster donwnhill and he used it to add to time he gained on climbs. Yes, Manolo needs to learn to control race only when needed. If Heras gets yellow at A.d.H. I can see the whip come out and they'll be dead before Paris.
Yes, I saw LA looked a little 'thicker' must be the donuts :). Maybe he does what Mig did before his attempt at 6. His form and speed looks good so far, as for his weight I think it's fine for March. He's the most obsessive Calorie counter on earth, I'm sure he and Carmichael have it all mapped out so he's at fighting weight come July. I can't see how maintaining a low to no bodyfat could be healthy year round, especially to a cancer survivor. No tele coverage of Mialn San remo here in the states, I'm bummed.

Don't forget about the TTT, its Stage 4 - July 7: Cambrai - Arras TTT, 65 km. 65 km is a long route for Heras' team and even though 1/2 the team is from the old Once squad, I'm not sure that they have the horses for the TTT drag. Here's the Liberty-Seguros squad
http://www.world-of-cycling.com/sites/2004/teams04/libertyseguros.htm. Key people missing from the Once train that was so solid the last two years are Jaksche and Beloki. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heras loses 1.5-2 min right there. If so, he'll never see yellow. Remember, he was dragged around quite a bit by the Postal train in his Postal days.

BT

out of 18 riders only 6 aren't from ONCE. Heras and Van de Velde replace Beloki and Jorg so ONCE train is basically in tact. Heras and VdV are equally drilled in this event as ONCE has been one of the best in this discipline. Otherwise adding 3 neo's (common) and one Polstat rider is very common in an off season and actually leaning to very little change. Nozal, Vicioso, Serrano and the 2 GdG's with VdV are more than enough TTT horsepower. I don't think the TTT is going to do much this year with loss-limits. The ITT will hurt Heras more. My guess is Liberty will be within about 10-30 seconds of USPS.

last year in Vuelta when they sent floyd ahead who then pulled him down the MTN. he's no Savodelli for sure. True about Tyler and Jan, I guess this is something people don't but should practice more. Merckx was a monster donwnhill and he used it to add to time he gained on climbs. Yes, Manolo needs to learn to control race only when needed. If Heras gets yellow at A.d.H. I can see the whip come out and they'll be dead before Paris.
Yes, I saw LA looked a little 'thicker' must be the donuts :). Maybe he does what Mig did before his attempt at 6. His form and speed looks good so far, as for his weight I think it's fine for March. He's the most obsessive Calorie counter on earth, I'm sure he and Carmichael have it all mapped out so he's at fighting weight come July. I can't see how maintaining a low to no bodyfat could be healthy year round, especially to a cancer survivor. No tele coverage of Mialn San remo here in the states, I'm bummed.

I remember that stage, but it was a straight downhill run nothing tricky. Wide open downhill TTT with Landis, Roberto, Sevilla and Valverde against 5 man strong ONCE squad, they only lost only few seconds. Never saw Heras pulling away on technical downhills but being LA domestique he never had to.

agree low bodyfat isn't healty, I was getting sick all the time before I gained a few pounds over the winter :D

yes, nothing tricky and always easier to do when you can follow someone elses line (Floyd). It will eliminate some advantages to the pure climbers (except that guy from E.E.) who ws descending like a madman in Paris Nice. Dropping Vandebrouke on a descent is taking some serious risk.

out of 18 riders only 6 aren't from ONCE. Heras and Van de Velde replace Beloki and Jorg so ONCE train is basically in tact. Heras and VdV are equally drilled in this event as ONCE has been one of the best in this discipline. Otherwise adding 3 neo's (common) and one Polstat rider is very common in an off season and actually leaning to very little change. Nozal, Vicioso, Serrano and the 2 GdG's with VdV are more than enough TTT horsepower. I don't think the TTT is going to do much this year with loss-limits. The ITT will hurt Heras more. My guess is Liberty will be within about 10-30 seconds of USPS.

Well, Heras is nowhere near the TT'er that Beloki is. And I'm not sure VdV is an equal replacement for Jorg Jaske, though VdV is a good TTT'er.

Jose Asevedo (how do you spell his name?!) is a much stronger TT'er than Heras, so as far as the TTT goes, Postal benefited while Once/LS is down a bit. IMO...

[QUOTE=Asiago]Well, Heras is nowhere near the TT'er that Beloki is. And I'm not sure VdV is an equal replacement for Jorg Jaske, though VdV is a good TTT'er.

agreed but in a TTT you don't have to be good. you just take short pulls.Heras will mostly be protected during this event. watch old USPS footage, the Diesels do most of the work. Hincapie, Padrnos, Ekimov , H.P. and LA take the lion share of work while Chechu, Roberto and Tricky take very short pulls. Liberty has enough horsepower to drag Roberto in the TTT, it's that flat ITT where he'll suffer. look at the last 2 Vueltas w/ Heras as captain. The TTT had no effect at all as he's protected by the roulers.

Well, Heras is nowhere near the TT'er that Beloki is.

As I recall in '02 Vuelta Heras didn't loose that much time to Beloki in both ITTs. Of cause he did loose alot of time to Aitor, but Aitor was in top shape back then. He made almost 1.5min on Botero who beat LA in 1st tour ITT and who won World ITT in couple weeks. On shorter distance Aitor made more time on Beloki then LA did in tour.

Plus with Manolo in drive seat Heras is going to ride the best flat ITT of his life. I haven't looked at Liberty's roster, do they have any good descenders on team to pull Heras downhill?

either of the GdG's, Nozal or Vicioso most likely. I don't know if any of them are great descenders, they have Serrano as well.

yes, nothing tricky and always easier to do when you can follow someone elses line (Floyd). It will eliminate some advantages to the pure climbers (except that guy from E.E.) who ws descending like a madman in Paris Nice. Dropping Vandebrouke on a descent is taking some serious risk.

Sanchez? he made that descend look too damn easy. He was going faster then Vandenbroucke and unlike Vandenbroucke it didn't look like he took he took that much risk. Frank was able to close a few seconds at the bottom.

Do you remember the 15tht stage of '03 tour when Botero brought Vino back into race after he bonked and lost 1.5 min on Tourmalet? Not sure what Telecom's plan was, maybe they planned to attack at the top hoping that Botero will pull Vino down and then up Luz-Ardiden for as much as he could. If Jan didn't attack and Vino had legs that day he could have walked with tour in his pocket.

I think plan was similar to what USPS did in Vuelta. Send a non contender ahead (Botero, Floyd) and then use them to put contender in a position to win. no one reacts to a non threat in a break. if he's a teammate of someone who is and they bridge...watch out.

Yup. It is so much easier with a teammate up the road. No chasing. When you do attack, he's up the road, recovered, waiting for you.