I understand that the prologue will be 19k. Then the TTT is held a couple of days later. This probably means a couple of things:

We will probably not see the usual scenario of the yellow jersey alternating among sprinters during the first week. The sprinters will be one minute behind on the first day.

Lance could let someone else win the prologue so Disco doesn't have to defend yellow immediately. However, why bother, since the TTT is only two days later. Disco will want to go for the TTT win. This has been a matter of pride for them to show their strength as a team and to continue to erase the memory of the disastrous 7-11 TTT all those years ago. It is possible for Disco to win the TTT but not have Lance in yellow. This may be the most preferable scenario. However, things would have to be cut mighty fine for this to occur. Why wouldn't Lance go for yellow in the prologue and cement his position in the TTT?

Some might argue that this would mean Disco would have to defend yellow from start to finish. I don't think so. The sprinters teams will be make sure the race stays together until it hits the mountains, at which time Disco takes over.

Fearless Prediction: Lance in yellow from start to finish.

Extra credit question: Who was the last rider to wear yellow from start to finish?

Extra Extra credit question: Who wore yellow in Paris but at no other time in the Tour?

[QUOTE=ronW87]
Lance could let someone else win the prologue so Disco doesn't have to defend yellow immediately. QUOTE]

Nonsense. You never give time away to your serious rivals especially when you don't know how the race will unfold. If you don't want to defend the jersey, then don't defend it and let a non-GC threat take the lead from a breakaway win during one of the subsequent stages. Which may not happen anyway as the sprinter's teams will be keen for bunch sprint finishes if the stages are conducive to such.

I know it's nitpicking, but the because of its length, the TT on Saturday is a regular stage not a prologue. Besides terminology, it does affect certain rules.

"Why wouldn't Lance go for yellow in the prologue and cement his position in the TTT?"

Because no team nor individual is strong enough to defend from beginning to end.


"Some might argue that this would mean Disco would have to defend yellow from start to finish. I don't think so. The sprinters teams will be make sure the race stays together until it hits the mountains, at which time Disco takes over."

They keep things together only when it suits them. If a break goes up the road that they have have little chance of catching, they'll do very little... saving it for the next day (or next day, or next dat, etc.) for a true stage win.


"Fearless Prediction: Lance in yellow from start to finish."

Now that would be the way to end a career wouldn't it!!:) Although, I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

JB

As another poster said (sorry can't remember who posted it right now), you never concede time to your rivals.

Armstrong will go for it in the 19k opening TT. Disco will go for it in the TTT. These are two opportunities to gain time on rivals. I would expect Armstrong in yellow after the TTT (but not necessarily after the Stage 1 TT - but not because he didn't try). If Armstrong is in yellow after the TTT, I don't expect Discovery to defend the jersey at this point. They will let a break go so long as it is comprised of riders that will not contend for the overall. Will Fassa Bortolo chase? I'm guessing they'll HAVE TO 'cause FB will only be in the Tour to go after stage victories for Ale Jet and without any real designs on GC (though a rider will undoubtedly be given free reign to ride for himself in the TTs and Mtns). If Fass Bortolo doesn't chase, they won't come away with their Tour goals.

As another poster said (sorry can't remember who posted it right now), you never concede time to your rivals.

Armstrong will go for it in the 19k opening TT. Disco will go for it in the TTT. These are two opportunities to gain time on rivals. I would expect Armstrong in yellow after the TTT (but not necessarily after the Stage 1 TT - but not because he didn't try). If Armstrong is in yellow after the TTT, I don't expect Discovery to defend the jersey at this point. They will let a break go so long as it is comprised of riders that will not contend for the overall. Will Fassa Bortolo chase? I'm guessing they'll HAVE TO 'cause FB will only be in the Tour to go after stage victories for Ale Jet and without any real designs on GC (though a rider will undoubtedly be given free reign to ride for himself in the TTs and Mtns). If Fass Bortolo doesn't chase, they won't come away with their Tour goals.

Armstrong will want to take the prologue, but I am betting he'll roll in somewhere in the top 5 with a prologue specialist (like Fabian last year) taking yellow on day 1 after the prologue, oops, opening TT of stage 1 of the Tour de France.

It's not necessarily true that Armstrong will be in yellow after the TTT, this is assuming that Dicso wins the TTT, which we'll know more about after the Eindhoven TTT in Holland a week or so before the Tour starts. If Disco has a strong showing there, and undoubtedly they will have their Tour team lined up for this race as well as all of the other teams in the Pro Tour, they should be able to win the TTT again. Remember a couple of years ago when Victor Hugo Pena was in yellow instead of Armstrong after the TTT. Something like this might happen again. If not, Disco is NOT going to defend the lead and the jersey until they get to the mountains, and the sprinting teams will keep things together on the flatter stages to go for the early stage wins.

Fassa will NOT chase for Alesandro because he's not going to be racing the Tour this year. He's decided to race the Giro and la Vuelta, but not le Tour. And there are other sprinter's teams out there that will be going for stage wins. McEwen and Steels both on the same team, Zabel of course (if he's there), and others. Pettachi is not the only sprinter with a team.

Educated guess on the Extra Extra credit question

A: Greg Lemond vs Laurent Fignon when he took Yellow on the final Stage TT

Disclaimer : Did not google to confirm and I was plenty young back then =)

Armstrong will want to take the prologue, but I am betting he'll roll in somewhere in the top 5 with a prologue specialist (like Fabian last year) taking yellow on day 1 after the prologue, oops, opening TT of stage 1 of the Tour de France.

It's not necessarily true that Armstrong will be in yellow after the TTT, this is assuming that Dicso wins the TTT, which we'll know more about after the Eindhoven TTT in Holland a week or so before the Tour starts. If Disco has a strong showing there, and undoubtedly they will have their Tour team lined up for this race as well as all of the other teams in the Pro Tour, they should be able to win the TTT again. Remember a couple of years ago when Victor Hugo Pena was in yellow instead of Armstrong after the TTT. Something like this might happen again. If not, Disco is NOT going to defend the lead and the jersey until they get to the mountains, and the sprinting teams will keep things together on the flatter stages to go for the early stage wins.

Yep, pretty much what I said. I think the difference would be I highly doubt Armstrong will arrive in 2003 form. But it could happen. I

Fassa will NOT chase for Alesandro because he's not going to be racing the Tour this year. He's decided to race the Giro and la Vuelta, but not le Tour. And there are other sprinter's teams out there that will be going for stage wins. McEwen and Steels both on the same team, Zabel of course (if he's there), and others. Pettachi is not the only sprinter with a team.

Ah, well, didn't realize Petacchi wasn't riding the Tour. Well, that definitely rules out Fassa Bortolo chasing then! The other teams could chase and will chase, but none of the other teams are as committed to their sprinter as Fassa is committed to Petacchi. When FB is racing for Petacchi, I just get the impression following the races that the other sprinters' teams look to FB to do the chasing, kind of like the other team in the Tour look to USPS/Disco to control the race for the overall contenders like they have for the past several years.

But yeah, I agree Disco won't defend until the moutains.

Garin, Thys, Botecchia, Franz and Maes at least managed to go from beginning to end in Yellow (didn't google, did look in books)