Ok, so Saiz comments "we could see the same leader from the first to the last day" as a possibility (cyclingnews.com). If memory servers also, LA stated he wanted to win the opening TT (can't remember the source)...with the TTT fairly early, that could be enough to hold off the sprinters and thier time bonus'.

Anyone out there think that it's still possible? especially in the current world of specialization, I never thought we'd even discuss again. What are the chances? Wouldn't that be a heck of a way to go out?

For me, not a huge LA fanatic, I have to admit some possibility, but not much chance. I don't think that King Eddy even wore the jersey start to finish.

Sure it's possible. It's a 19k TT right? I doubt any sprinter will be near enough to take enough bonus seconds. More likely would be a change of jersey in the TTT or when the mountains hit. There seem to be a number of good TTists in the race this year which may make it less likely to happen b/c any number of those guys might take the 1st stage but flop in the mountains. Seems like anyone of these guys would be a likely winner:

Armstrong
Ullrich
Botero
Gonchar
Mcgee
Cancellara
Leipheimer

Outside possibilities:
Basso (wind tunnel reportedly shaved minutes off his TT)
Mayo (At his best he beat Armstrong in a flat prologue last year)
Rich (probably really a favorite but relatively unknown rider)
Julich
Voigt

Sure it's possible. It's a 19k TT right? I doubt any sprinter will be near enough to take enough bonus seconds. More likely would be a change of jersey in the TTT or when the mountains hit. There seem to be a number of good TTists in the race this year which may make it less likely to happen b/c any number of those guys might take the 1st stage but flop in the mountains. Seems like anyone of these guys would be a likely winner:

Armstrong
Ullrich
Botero
Gonchar
Mcgee
Cancellara
Leipheimer

Outside possibilities:
Basso (wind tunnel reportedly shaved minutes off his TT)
Mayo (At his best he beat Armstrong in a flat prologue last year)
Rich (probably really a favorite but relatively unknown rider)
Julich
Voigt

Basso is a definite possibility, because he's been flying this year.

What about Zabriskie after his TT win at the Giro. He's pretty good against the clock for certain.

Rich. Unknown?? Michael Rich is the man, and definitely not an unknown. Maybe to some, but most know Rich as a superb TTer.

Cancellara, not that good at the longer time trials. Won the prologue last year because it was so short.

Even if Armstrong takes the prologue, it's unlikely that he'll even try to keep the jersey from start to finish, it's just bad tactics. You defend it only when you need to absolutely defend it. There's always a possibility of a few dunderheads (like Voekler) going up the road in an early stage, and the break staying away, when said folks will have 0 chance when the race hits the big hills. Defending the jersey early on is a day gone by. Doesn't happen anymore or that much, at least not by the guys who really want to win the race.

average as well as Zabriskes was still 1-2 mph slower than Jan and LA. faster yes, faster than all the mediocre TTers of the Giro, not up to TdF speed yet.

average as well as Zabriskes was still 1-2 mph slower than Jan and LA. faster yes, faster than all the mediocre TTers of the Giro, not up to TdF speed yet.

Well the fact that both of the Giro TTs had a decent climb in them whereas the tour TT's are usually pretty much flat could account for that. Hard to compare TT times unless on the same course.

reagarding saiz' comment it seems there is only one rider/team capable of garnering the MJ and defending the whole race. CSC is a strong enough team to defend, but I don't see Basso topping LA in a head to head TT. While IB has improved a great deal, his TTing is only at the damage control level as far as the TDF. TMob has Jan, but their individual loyalties are so suspect, so I doubt they could keep it. Probably Vino and KDog would starting leaping for stage wins if JU already had the MJ. That leaves Disco/LA.

[QUOTE=magnolialover]Basso is a definite possibility, because he's been flying this year.

What about Zabriskie after his TT win at the Giro. He's pretty good against the clock for certain.

Rich. Unknown?? Michael Rich is the man, and definitely not an unknown. Maybe to some, but most know Rich as a superb TTer.

Cancellara, not that good at the longer time trials. Won the prologue last year because it was so short.

QUOTE]

I forgot Zabriskie. I agree Rich isn't an unknown to anyone who follows cycling somewhat closely, but I'd venture to say the majority of those tuning into OLN won't recognize his name and fancy him a favorite. Yeah Cancellara is more of a prologue specialist, as is McGee, but 19k is somewhere in between a prologue and typical TT, and I'm sure those guys will be really motivated to take it.

Well the fact that both of the Giro TTs had a decent climb in them whereas the tour TT's are usually pretty much flat could account for that. Hard to compare TT times unless on the same course.

Karpets lost 43s to Basso in last years TDF ITT to besanscon. in the giro he lost ~1 minute and then only ~9 seconds over about 2/3 the distance. I'd say either they are both really developing extraordinarily or the improvements in Basso's game were viewed in the context of the some absent big TT guns.

He'll probably win the prologue but to defend it in the first week and a half would be foolish. The effort to defend it would jepardize their showing in the Alps. Paris is what matters and every winner has always found the safest way to get there.

the profiles were similar. Basso's speed in the Tour TT was similar to his Giro (28.5 ish) whilst Jan and LA were in the 30's.