Has anyone read a good assessment of what is currently going on in Iraq? I remember early on at the briefings the military gave they seemed to be pretty clueless as to the make-up of the insurgency. One would think by now they'd have half-way decent intelligence. Seems like the administration would have us believe they are mostly (foriegn born) radical islamists. Yet it seems most action takes place in the Sunni areas suggesting it's really more of a nationalistic/ethnic movement. So is there an unholy alliance between the radical islamists (who I believe are mostly Sunnis as well or at least Al Quaeda is Sunni based) and the Sunni ethnic group who want to preserve their Saddam era power? Seems like the more radical islamic Shiite guys (who are backed by Iran) have quieted down and may be just biding their time if they don't get what they want out of the legal process. The Kurds? The seem content as long as they preserve their nearly autonomous status they had under Saddam. Is there an official military Sunni group opposing the government? All you ever hear in the press are statements from Al Quaeda in Iraq.

Here's the best I've heard as of yet as to the 'insurgency's make up....


http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/printer_friendly/news_logo.gif
New study details Iraq insurgency
Up to 3,000 foreign insurgents may be fighting in Iraq, but they remain a small part of the overall rebellion, a US military analyst has suggested. Algerians, Syrians and Yemenis are most numerous among foreign insurgents, said ex-White House aide Anthony Cordesman.

Mr Cordesman, a veteran analyst, used Saudi and other regional security studies to collate data on insurgents.

The figure is three times as large as unofficial Pentagon estimates, but may total no more than 10% of insurgents.

The Iraqi insurgency remains largely home-grown, Mr Cordesman added, with 90% or more hailing from Iraq.

"If there are anything like 3,000 fighters in Iraq, this poses a serious threat," Mr Cordesman said in a report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank.

"In any case, the exact numbers are largely irrelevant. All it takes are enough volunteers to continue to support suicide attacks and violent bombing."

Saudi research

Most volunteers seep into Iraq through the porous border with Syria, the report says.

Others enter from Saudi Arabia, although increased vigilance has seen higher numbers prevented from entering Iraq.




Some 352 Saudis, or 12% of the total, were thought to have crossed into Iraq by August 2005, according to Saudi security services. There were also significant number of Sudanese and Egyptian militants.

Saudi security services reported that most Saudi fighters were aged 17-25, younger than those from elsewhere, who tended to be in their late 20s or early 30s.

But US and Iraqi officials in Iraq stressed the home-grown nature of the insurgency.

At the start of November 2005, only about 400 of almost 13,900 detainees in Iraq were foreigners, the report says.

"The foreign fighters' attacks tend to be more spectacular, [but] the local national, the Saddamists, the Iraqi rejectionists, are much more problematic," said Maj Gen Joseph Taluto, commander of a US infantry division in Tikrit.




Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/4447778.stm

Published: 2005/11/17 23:12:19 GMT

© BBC MMV

The Washington Post had a similar article, which I posted yesterday. What is really troubling is that a decent portion of the insurgents aren't the dead-enders Cheney referred to, pissed off former Baathists, but dead-enders as in suicide bombers.

Among Insurgents in Iraq, Few Foreigners Are Found

By Jonathan Finer
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, November 17, 2005; A01


<NITF>BAGHDAD -- Before 8,500 U.S. and Iraqi soldiers methodically swept through Tall Afar two months ago in the year's largest counterinsurgency offensive, commanders described the northern city as a logistics hub for fighters, including foreigners entering the country from Syria, 65 miles to the west.

"They come across the border and use Tall Afar as a base to launch attacks across northern Iraq," Col. H.R. McMaster, commander of the Army's 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, which led the assault, said in a briefing the day before it began.

When the air and ground operation wound down in mid-September, nearly 200 insurgents had been killed and close to 1,000 detained, the military said at the time. But interrogations and other analyses carried out in recent weeks showed that none of those captured was from outside Iraq. According to McMaster's staff, the 3rd Armored Cavalry last detained a foreign fighter in June


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...5111602519.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/16/AR2005111602519.html)

Other than the security issues, what else is happening in Iraq?

Has electricity been restored to most areas?
How's the water supply?
How about housing?
What's the employment situation?

Frankly, I have a concern about leaving Iraq at this point in time and just leaving them high and dry again. I have a feeling that we left the Kurds and the anti-Saddam factions out to dry after Desert Storm and I don't think that it would do our credability any good to appear to abandon Iraq again.

On the other hand, if we continue to occupy Iraq for another 5 or 10 years, is there any reason to believe that the ultimate result will be any different than if we leave now?

Other than the security issues, what else is happening in Iraq?

Has electricity been restored to most areas?
How's the water supply?
How about housing?
What's the employment situation?

Frankly, I have a concern about leaving Iraq at this point in time and just leaving them high and dry again. I have a feeling that we left the Kurds and the anti-Saddam factions out to dry after Desert Storm and I don't think that it would do our credability any good to appear to abandon Iraq again.

On the other hand, if we continue to occupy Iraq for another 5 or 10 years, is there any reason to believe that the ultimate result will be any different than if we leave now?
Bring those good boys and girls home.