Looking at the startlist there are really very few contenders for the GC, not much depth in the field. Shame Hamilton isn't racing, he's on great form and would have had a excellent shot at taking the GC.

Still may be a great race though, as neither Simoni, Garzelli or Popovych have shown the kind of form that would make them definitive favorites. If he wasn't so young, and riding for Simoni, Cunego would be a favorite. Old-school Tonkov has shown some good form. Rebellin must be past the boil by now, and has never been able to keep it together for 3 weeks, so probaly won't figure in the final GC. Whole host of others who could play a role like Noe, Gonchar, Juan Carlos Dominguez, Garate, Belli, Montgomery, Wadecki if they find their best form. I'm surprised D&V isn't bringing Scarponi?

So who's it going to be?

Looking at the startlist there are really very few contenders for the GC, not much depth in the field. Shame Hamilton isn't racing, he's on great form and would have had a excellent shot at taking the GC.

Still may be a great race though, as neither Simoni, Garzelli or Popovych have shown the kind of form that would make them definitive favorites. If he wasn't so young, and riding for Simoni, Cunego would be a favorite. Old-school Tonkov has shown some good form. Rebellin must be past the boil by now, and has never been able to keep it together for 3 weeks, so probaly won't figure in the final GC. Whole host of others who could play a role like Noe, Gonchar, Juan Carlos Dominguez, Garate, Belli, Montgomery, Wadecki if they find their best form. I'm surprised D&V isn't bringing Scarponi?

So who's it going to be?

A tough call, as you point out, none of the favorites are lighting it up right now. But right now, I'd say Garzelli.

As for Scarponi, I think DV is aving him for their Tour GC...

1. Garzelli
2. Popovych

Simoni DNFs

Normally I'd go 1) Simoni 2) Garzelli 3) Popo....

Check out this report from ProCycling.com

....Garzelli has lost close to 19 minutes in a brace of mountain stages on Friday and Saturday in the Swiss stage race. Yesterday the Vini Caldirola captain returned a verdict of “no panic” having finished 4 minutes 26 seconds behind stage winner Alexandre Moos at Morgins. This evening, you can bet on it, Cunego and Simoni will be intrigued to see how Garzelli explains away the 14 minutes 25 seconds he conceded to stage-winner Fabian Jeker in Sion today...

I do think this is going to be a tough race for the sprinters... The climbing starts on the 2nd stage. I'll be curious to see if Petacchi and Cipo survive the entire race...

so many teams are now passing over the Giro. The Vuelta gets more higher ranked teams now than the Giro. I'm thinking Popo as neither simoni nor garzelli have shown great form yet. I'm worried this may be a yawner.

so many teams are now passing over the Giro. The Vuelta gets more higher ranked teams now than the Giro. I'm thinking Popo as neither simoni nor garzelli have shown great form yet. I'm worried this may be a yawner.

There are a few climbers in this year's Giro that are often overlooked by the public. I'm curious to see how Julio Perez Cuapio (Panaria) and Freddy Gonzalez (Col - Selle Italia) do against Simoni and Garzelli.

There are a few climbers in this year's Giro that are often overlooked by the public. I'm curious to see how Julio Perez Cuapio (Panaria) and Freddy Gonzalez (Col - Selle Italia) do against Simoni and Garzelli.

Both those guys have a solid history as participants in the Giro and as winners of the KOM, which usually precludes any serious shot at the GC. I don't know why this year would be any different. Perez had that one spectacular Giro 2 years ago, and I don't think did much at all last year. I haven't noticed his name in any of the races results recently. I fear he may have been a flash in the pan.

Both those guys have a solid history as participants in the Giro and as winners of the KOM, which usually precludes any serious shot at the GC. I don't know why this year would be any different. Perez had that one spectacular Giro 2 years ago, and I don't think did much at all last year. I haven't noticed his name in any of the races results recently. I fear he may have been a flash in the pan.

After my post I started doing a little research on these guys. Part of the mystery is that both Col. Selle Italia and Panaria are Div II teams. It looks like Perez only did two races last year! Here are his results of the Panaria team site. He has no results in 2004!

Lombardic Cycling Week, 2nd stage 1 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, 3rd stage 2 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, 4th stage 13 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, 5th stage 14 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, Final General Classification 1 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, Final Points Classification 5 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, Final Mountain Classification 1 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, Final Sprint Classification 5 Place
Lombardic Cycling Week, Final Intergiro Classification 7 Place
Giro d' Italia, 7th stage Avezzano-Terminillo 10 Place
Giro d' Italia, 12th stage San Dona - Monte Zoncolan 6 Place
Giro d' Italia, 14th stage Marostica - Alpe Pampeago 4 Place

being from San Dieo you have to pull for the tiny Mexican climber. It would be like not rooting for your next door neighbor to not cheer him on. Given his hard luck, broken chain, broken tooth, he has all the proper creds for underdog. KOM guys rarely have a shot at GC to agree with DWB. Fun to watch but usually only in the mix for a stage or 2. Would love to see him take the KOM.

anyone who gives his teeth for a stage win deserves a cheering section! ok, I know that they were two different stages, but I could not resist. Break a chain while ahead of the group, spend a day attacking, break your front teeth and then still recover for a major mountain win, wow.

Are Simoni and Garzelli playing poker and take a day off to roll in 15 minutes behind the climbers or is it "sudden intestinal distress" (bad day). This is why I love the Giro, it is so wide open...while the Tour is really a question of who (if at all) will dethrone LA.

I think D&V are saving Scarponi for the Tour...apart from Cippo, Scarponi can put in a good ride or challenge for a stage win, so Leblanc wants him there. Since he is fairly young still, he should not ride both (Giro and Tour).

I think we will see a young talent emerge to stun, or the conversion of a one day rider to hang in for the whole 3 weeks (ala Armstrong).

I'm more interesting in the Sprint Royales...Cippo did finish in 2002 and win Milano. Admittedly, that was such a great year for him and not expected to be repeated. 2003 a Kelme 'sprinter' took him out on a corner and the race. If he leaves early, it would be for Tour prep (can't disappoint Leblanc not that he is back in the good graces).
The sprint stages are kinda in week 2 and into week 3. Quick look, I see probable field sprint finishes in stages 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 20). After 15, there are 4 mountain stages to suffer though before 20. So maybe 15 will be his last (and that's not too bad).
Will Cippo be interested in setting the stage wins higher? yes, but is that more than the points/exposure of winning in the Tour? I say screw the Tour and go for Giro wins. Show up in France with 6 Giro wins over Pettachi and get your publicity that way. Start the Tour, on the first mountain retire from the race and from Racing entirely. Thumb your nose at Leblanc while climbing in the car!

I watched the Tour of Romandie and I think he was dogging it, saving himself as the climbing in this year's Giro starts early. He's won it before he was Pantani's lieutenant in early years, plus having Tonkov riding shotgun, if he's got anything left in the tank, is a plus.

I'll take Simoni though for second. Form may be suspect but two 3rds and two 1st in the last 5 editions is not a bad record. Strong team with Cunego, who as DB notes, is very much on form. Also Mazzoleni almost single handedly rode Garzelli into second last year and this time, he's with Saeco.

Popovych is tough but this version has too much climbing. He's still young and it clearly showed when Garzelli put time into him last year in the last TT but he'll get there eventually unless he and Ernesto have a divorce at which time he'll focus on the Tour. Interesting to note that Cunego had the upper hand on him when they were under 23's but now the roles are reversed.

Rebellin, as DB again notes, has never done much in the overall at the Giro so that's not likely to change. Never one for the high mountains, maybe a stage but that's it for him.

Dark horse- Pellizotti who can climb and like Popo, is maturing and gaining experience.

Cioni looked good in the Tour of Romandie but the climbing is not going to suit this former fat tire rider.

Green jersey- I'm going with Petacchi followed by McEwen. The 'bus' are going so be spending a lot of time together on this Giro and if McEwen intends to finish, my votes on him. If he's going to dnf and focus on Tour, it's Petacchi.

Climber- Perez Cuapio and then Gonzalez Martinez

Young rider- Cunego

Combo jersey- Baldato

Participation this year is lighter than normal in terms of the big guns which is unfortunate but the Tour's where the money, glory and sponsors focus so no surprise.

The Tour's got drama but I find that Giro to be exciting and the racing less predictable.

1. Garzelli
2. Popovych

Simoni DNFs

Cippo's wreck and the one that took out Leipheimer, broke Tyler's collarbone and injured Lance (TdF) was a Kelme rider as well. I wonder if it's the same guy. Maybe this is why they didn't get the invites. (sorry I'm a conspiracy theorist)

It was Cedric Clain, now suspended from Confidis, who caused the Kelme rider to go down and create the crash taking out Levi and injuring Tyler and Lance. No conspiracy, just no one, except Valverde, on the current roster with enough UCI points and potential to make a difference.

Cippo's wreck and the one that took out Leipheimer, broke Tyler's collarbone and injured Lance (TdF) was a Kelme rider as well. I wonder if it's the same guy. Maybe this is why they didn't get the invites. (sorry I'm a conspiracy theorist)

Hi Junkie,
When I saw the footage of the Tour Stage 1 crash, I was thinking the same thing...man if that is the same Kelme rider, someone is gonna put a price on his head...

But, I beleive they were different riders...the Tour was Jose Gutierrez (and watching the DVD over and over, yes, it looks like someone took his front wheel out) the Giro was Isaac Galvez. Had to check the archives at cyclingnews (thanks guys!)

Besides Kelme riders, is anyone surprised when they see Alex Zuelle sliding across the road? Seems like he will go down just to get his name mentioned sometimes. And now he and Tyler on the same team? What, was Phonak thinking? "Tyler can only do well in a 3week if he is hurt so let's get someone on our team who can crash in front of him and show him how it's done" ?!?

So who's it going to be?

It's gotta be Simoni.

He wants it the most.
He has won it twice before and knows what it takes.
He seems to be climbing better than Garzelli, and those big climbs near the end, Gavia and Mortirolo, will be decisive.

It doesn't look like there is anyone else with the strength and consistency to come out on top after 3 weeks. But there can always be some surprises - and I certainly hope that there are!

I can't wait!

"Green jersey- I'm going with Petacchi followed by McEwen. The 'bus' are going so be spending a lot of time together on this Giro and if McEwen intends to finish, my votes on him. If he's going to dnf and focus on Tour, it's Petacchi."

McEwen has already said he will drop out somewhere between the 10th and 14th stages.

Moose, re: Zulle.....ouch!!!! killing me, "if no one takes Tyler out, we'll do it ourselves!"
Boneman, I was just funnin' regarding the conspiracy. Too bad for Valverde though, huge talent with nowhere to prove it. Will have to wait for Vuelta and I wouldn't bet against him making Huge waves.
but a new conspiracy! "Clain was doing a revenge move against LA as Cofidis is still bitter!"
Has anyone else wondered if LA somehow put a curse or hex on this squad or is it the cycling gods punishing them for dropping him whilst he was ill? They have had nothing but bad luck since then, drug scandal, Astarloas recruitment and release, Millars chain in the prologue, Jullichs rise and fall and now re-rise, it just goes on and on.
okay so I'm stirring the pot.

Simoni...seems to be climbing better than Garzelli, and those big climbs near the end, Gavia and Mortirolo, will be decisive.


Garzelli has shown much better form this Spring than Simoni.

Garzelli takes the stage 3 win. Simoni falters.

Garzelli has shown much better form this Spring than Simoni.

Garzelli takes the stage 3 win. Simoni falters.

actually, Simoni performed well at the Giro del Trentino, where he helped Cunego take the overall. i'd say that he's on track. of course, there has been LOTS of speculation all spring about exactly who is on track, who is too fat, who is going to be peaking at the right time for the various tours, etc., etc., etc.

we'll all see in a week's time just whose training has paid off.

Well, I guess he's focused on the Tour as he should given his green jersey in 2002 and down to the last stage finish in last year's edition. I wonder if Quaranta's going to show the form last seen 4 years ago when he was with Mobilvetta. A bit of a mystery as to what happened after his move the Alexia and then last year's disaster at Saeco. Has the Cheetah lost his spots after being annointed by the tifosi as the successor on Mario's throne? Too many late nights the problem? That being said, much as I like Cipo, I fear the party's over with the lights going out after his World's victory in 2002 at Zolder.

"Green jersey- I'm going with Petacchi followed by McEwen. The 'bus' are going so be spending a lot of time together on this Giro and if McEwen intends to finish, my votes on him. If he's going to dnf and focus on Tour, it's Petacchi."

McEwen has already said he will drop out somewhere between the 10th and 14th stages.