Iban Mayo just might be ahead on his schedule to become the next great major tour winner. He has had a string of great results in the last few weeks and according to Cyclingnews - these results were not just in the mountains.

The thing is, I can see Lance putting a minute or 2 on Mayo in the final long flat ITT and maybe Postal puts another minute or two on Mayo in the TTT but if, Mayo and Euskatel keep those two gaps reasonable - then attack in the mountains again - he can easily recoup that lost time in the Mts where he will climb like a gazelle on L Alpe.

I believe he is really working on his ITT skills as well (he even visited a wind tunnel for his position)

It will be a good battle this year and not just between Lancer and Jan.

Thoughts?

-nik

But don't count out Zubeldia. Mayo is having a heck of a season...maybe he is on a hot streak like Vino last year...maybe he is just on a peak and not trying for a Tour GC, just a win or two...

The 'pure climber' type will need 4 minutes on LA/JU after the mountains to cover the 60K TT though (33% longer, and no breaks between the mountains and the TT for the legs). LA/JU will be barking big, not the least to see how they are going for the Olympic TT. Zubeldia has better chances in the TT.

Between Mayo, Beloki, Valverde and a handful of other Spanish hopefulls, look for the Tour to be won 10 times in the next 18 years by Spainiards...with one year where Valverde wins multiple jerseys.

Mayo looks great for this time of year. Check out what Pez had to say about Euskaltel.

After Euskaltel-Euskadi’s top man Iban Mayo whooped the Vuelta a Asturias, the team are considering a stronger line up for the Tour de France for the flat stages instead of the climbers only selection. The new rules for the team time trial might just encourage them to ride harder.

yes and Zubeldia is nearly as strong a threat. Mayo showed that in the Dauphine last year as well. He hasn't shown yet that as a 'marked man' he's been able to drop the top guys. In fact it was his attack that LA used as a springboard last year. He's going to have to be able to pull away with everybody knowing he's athreat to GC which is a whole new challenge. I feel he's far more of a contender than Heras as he's a more all around rider. It will be unusual to E.E. with a completely different race strategy but I'm looking for Mayo to do a strong TT up A.d.H.

... to legit all arounder and a TTer as well - from his performaces in the last 10 days....Moose: Totally aggree that Spanish will really start to dominate in a year or two (although this Curnego kid seems like a young Greg LeMond) also do you think Mayo will lose long TT by 4:00 minutes? I suppose if it was last year I would bet about that but I wonder if he will give up that much in July 04?

One thing is for certain the long TT is Jan's time to shine and really destroy the field.

I hope the 04 tdf lives up to its billing...

Nik

I agree Mayo looks like he is progressing in strength as he matures and may be a real challenger for the win this year. BUT, let's not forget, over the last 5 years when Armstrong has reached his top form no one has really challenged him. O.K. Ullrich made it interesting last year, but there wasn't even a challenge before then.

The picture will become clearer once Armstrong faces some reall competition in the build up races just before the Tour. I think it will become clear then if he is vulnerable to the likes of Mayo, Hamilton, Ullrich, etc.

From Cyclingnews today....

Euskaltel ready for the Tour

The Euskaltel-Euskadi team has already decided its nine-man line-up for this year's Tour de France. Iban Mayo will lead the orange-clad team from the Basque country, along with five other riders who represented the squad in last year's tour. Haimar Zubeldia, David Etxebarria, Unai Etxebarria, Mikel Artetxe, Iker Flores, Iker Camaño, Iñigo Landaluze and Egoi Martínez.

Director sportif Julián Gorospe has attempted to construct a more balanced team than in previous years, with less emphasis on the team's traditional strength - climbers - and more on flat-country performance. Hence the omission of Roberto Laiseka from the team, despite his victory at Luz Ardiden in 2001.

I'll be curious to see them in the TTT! I'm also wondering if they can punish the peloton the way that Postal can....

and I keep hearing all this Jan TT stuff. now I'm not knocking him at all, but in head to head match-ups with Lance I can only remember Jan coming up on top twice (last years TdF and the Olympics). Now I'm just extrapolating (sp) but Jan missed 2 TdF's Lance won, which means he competed in 3. So even at 2 TT's a Tour that makes him 1 for 6, does anyone have their actual record? The uphill TT is going to kill the Kaiser IMHO (if the sweets haven't already :P ) and I think the likes of Mayo, Tyler stand a far better chance.
I'm just wondering what transformation takes place to Bobby J. and Basso w/ Master Riis in their heads. The long TT may hurt Mayo more than Tyler, and didn't Zubeldia out TT Iban? what happens if they are both close? what will E.E. do? ah the intrigue.

Gotta' love all this speculation!

Basso seems to be CSC's focus for TdF. I read on one of the cycling websites that he's made great strides in his TT ability since he had his position altered from wind tunnel testing...

Ahh... <a href=http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2004/may04/may06news2>here's the story</a> (I love Google)...

Yes, but it can also be argued that last year was the first time Ullrich has faced Armstrong in the Tour at the peak of his abilities. In previous years he always seemed to be playing catch-up with his form, which may be the case again this year. When Armstrong and Ullrich have been at the tour, it's always been Armstrong a clear first (except last year), Ullrich a clear second, and then the rest of the GC contenders. The winner of the tour not being either Ullrich or Armstrong probably is most dependent on the two of them not being able to achieve their previous top levels of form, rather than one of the pretenders actually improving their level to that of the best Ullrich and Armstrong have shown over the years.

I agree with you Dwayeberry...the history won't matter so much. But you look at history, look at the trends...Armstrong dominated early ('99), but has been slipping down the placings lately (especially in the not important prolog). This year, the long TT maybe JU's only shot at a stage win.

But, this thread is about Mayo. 4:00 TT lose...yea, I'm gonna stick by that...for the purer climbers. Heras, 5:00 baby! big crumble at crunch time. If he is in yellow, we may see the tears as he finishes! Mayo, with the focus on TTing that he has been doing, maybe more like 3:00.

More importantly, does anyone have the profile of the TT? I think the initial report was a bit hilly at the start and then a long flat...the climbers will go out hard on the hills to get what time the can...and then be overcooked and cramping on the flats.

Also, does anyone have some rider info on the announced EE Team? Especially for the TTT? I know a bit about the non-brothers Etxebarria...and Zubeldia...of the others I've only heard of Iker Flores. It looks like they are going to take the TTT more seriously than limping in and taking thier 2:30. What are the estimates? finishing 1 min behind USPS/Telecom or more like 2 min?

that last year LA was 'off form' (crash in D.L. and TdF, dehydration, etc..) and that last years JU victory was the anomoly rather than a new trend. He wasn't putting the same kind of time damage into him the second TT. This also tends to show which weather conditions each rides best in. Jan is clearly a warm weather rider.If you take their records (once again agreed history doesn't mean all that much) the averages tend to point that way. Even Jan's TT victory at the Olympics was marred by the fact that LA was recovering from a training run-in with a car.
Maybe last year ws the best we'll see of Jan, I actually preferred him in Celeste and maybe he'll go back to his old ways at DT. I hope not, and I hope T-Mob doesn't implode from it's all-star line-up. okay sorry, I digress....Mayo. What if Zubeldia is stronger? does he take the role of dom.? I hope E.E. takes good selection of it's team. I think leaving Laiseka out could be an error. It was a hilly stage where Tyler did his damage to them and if not for T-Mobs rally to protect Vino they'd have been worse off. A guy like Laiseka could help neutralize this in the mountains if he 'gets with the program'. With a time limit on the TTT it will be more critical to have help in the MTN's. You're only going to need the Roulers if you are defending the lead for long periods of time.

I would love to know how the teams will place in the TTT. Even with the time caps every second will count for the teams that have contenders. I would like to think that Postal will still be in the driver's seat for the win with Lberty Seg being diluted of some of its heavy duty TT's.


What do people think?

Postal
CSC
Telekom

?
telekom
Posties
?

?

?

Nik

Liberty Seguros. Manolo will have them just like he did ONCE....fast and disciplined.

Well, Ullrich claims to have had his problems as well during last year's tour. And I think the best Ullrich was '98, '99, when no one could TT or climb with him on his top form. He's been continously playing catch-up ever since, and this year doesn't look to be any different. He'll probably reach the peak of his abilities around the Olympics, too late to win the Tour, but we'll see. As for Armstrong, I think it's too early to say if he has began the slow decline that inevitably occurs with age, or if last year was just an off-year. Should be pretty clear over the next couple of months or so.

Which is what makes this fun!

Well, Ullrich claims to have had his problems as well during last year's tour. And I think the best Ullrich was '98, '99, when no one could TT or climb with him on his top form.

Er, did you actually mean '98 and '99 or did you mean '97 when he won the Tour (won the Vuelta in '99). He couldn't climb with Pantani in '98 (and looking purely at the AdH times, Armstrong climbs like Pantani in the Tour)

I agree that JU had an off day in the '03 Tour, it happend on AdH. But at the same time, I do believe that Armstrong was well off his best form for most of the Tour, and still won.

The Armstrong camp is happy with where they are this year, so if Armstrong returns to his level of '02, I don't think anyone can beat him, not even JU at 105%.

I think Mayo can make top-5 this year, but unless Armstrong has troubles again, Mayo will not blow away LA in the mountains.

Which is what makes this fun!



Er, did you actually mean '98 and '99 or did you mean '97 when he won the Tour (won the Vuelta in '99). He couldn't climb with Pantani in '98 (and looking purely at the AdH times, Armstrong climbs like Pantani in the Tour)

I agree that JU had an off day in the '03 Tour, it happend on AdH. But at the same time, I do believe that Armstrong was well off his best form for most of the Tour, and still won.

The Armstrong camp is happy with where they are this year, so if Armstrong returns to his level of '02, I don't think anyone can beat him, not even JU at 105%.

I think Mayo can make top-5 this year, but unless Armstrong has troubles again, Mayo will not blow away LA in the mountains.

If memory serves me, Ullrich only lost the '98 tour because of that one bad cold, wet day on the penultimate mountain top finish when going downhill was more of problem for him then going up hill. I believe he lost over 5 minutes to Pantani that day, but matched his pace the next day with the two of them finishing together at the mountain top. On the mountain top finishes prior to those Ullrich was controlling his main rivals as Pantani was multiple minutes down at that point, and Ullrich "let" him ride away. Ullrich was strong enough at least to climb with Pantani that year, and put lots of time to him in the TTs. But for that one off day he would have won the Tour.

Postal might have to be downgraded as early reports say Pena may have broken his arm today in Belgium!

I'd bet on Liberty Seguros. They've got another new young spanish guy (something Sanchez Gil) who's been winning in Spain including a TT, plus Nozal and Galdeano. They should have a very strong team.

If memory serves me, Ullrich only lost the '98 tour because of that one bad cold, wet day on the penultimate mountain top finish when going downhill was more of problem for him then going up hill. I believe he lost over 5 minutes to Pantani that day, but matched his pace the next day with the two of them finishing together at the mountain top. On the mountain top finishes prior to those Ullrich was controlling his main rivals as Pantani was multiple minutes down at that point, and Ullrich "let" him ride away. Ullrich was strong enough at least to climb with Pantani that year, and put lots of time to him in the TTs. But for that one off day he would have one the Tour.

I think at least 5minutes he lost! Jan definitely doesn't like the cold... Maybe that's why he likes to bulk up in the winter? :)

spends it in South Afrca to avoid it. Isn't a German who doesn't like the cold seem a tad odd? Also read Thor Husvolds (sp?) comments from yesterays cycling news where LA and USPS pulled another Vuelta-esque echelon and ripped the peloton to shreds and killed some guys GC hopes. I just have this feeling that there's gonna be some angry legs in blue this year and I'm sure LA will use Heras' defection and last years 'close call' as fuel. (he seems to need a chip on his shoulder).
Thor commented "I know they are just 'training' but ......" was quite impressed, and took the stage. Between he and Magnus we have the Big Nordic Guys cycling fan club in the making. I'm happy anytime anyone over 175 wins anything.

broken arm, bad crash. Max Von Hees took the stage. he's got 6 weeks or so to heal before tour, otherwise looks like somebody is getting a shot. They've got 2 strong teams right now in 2 events, I'm sure they'll do oaky.

I think at least 5minutes he lost! Jan definitely doesn't like the cold... Maybe that's why he likes to bulk up in the winter? :)

I just went and looked it up, Ullrich loss 8:57 on that day. He had tactically conceded approximtely 2 minutes to Pantani on two previous mountain days, and entered the fateful stage to Les Deux Alpes over 3 minutes ahead of Pantani on GC. He lost the tour by 3:27 after taking a couple minutes back on Pantani in the final TT. I also seem to remember a flat at a critical time (the base of a climb or on the way up?) when Pantani attacked or right after he attacked, this started the whole disasterous chase. I remember having the clear impression that Ullrich was the strongest rider in the race.

agreed but remember him just dying in the cold. he looked absolutely miserable. was fun watching Pantani climb that day, I'll hold that memory over most the others. 1 bad day can
kill you in the tour, it gives ya more respect to those who've done it multiple times, being able to not make any mistakes over multiple years.

broken arm, bad crash. Max Von Hees took the stage. he's got 6 weeks or so to heal before tour, otherwise looks like somebody is getting a shot. They've got 2 strong teams right now in 2 events, I'm sure they'll do oaky.

Now they're saying Pena didn't break his arm, and might even ride today? But also reports that Valverde is going to Liberty Seguros. They should have a very strong team, but it still comes down to someone putting time into Ullrich/Lance in the mountains and TTs to beat them.

Euskatel: (v) to ride an opponent's draft the entire climb, doing absolutely no pulling, then launching past the exhausted, stunned sucker, thereby robbing him of his poduim finish for that stage. (First entered cycling vocabulary during the 2003 TdF) :-D
That said, Mayo and Zubeldia are certainly excellent climbers. Mayo has definitely put his stamp on things recently and is a force to be reckoned with. He has a decent chance of an individual TdF win.
I don't know if anyone else ever uses the term "to Euskatel" someone's a$$. OwMyNads and I devised this little joke last year shortly after the Tour. When we were drunk from the effort and somewhat delirious, it seemed funny at the time. Actually it is still funny.

On the two days in '98 where JU lost significant time to Pantani, he flatted at the base of the final climb both times. The first was lost to the camera I beleive. JU may be strong as a bull, but restarting and ripping thru the peleton to show your face at the front and then swimming in the lactic acid build up...JU is just not a smart rider. He needs a Riis or Bruneel on his radio.

Yes, JU has problems with the cold/wet stages. Could the 2004 Tour be over if it rains on LaMongie? That is almost LA's trademark...first mountain finish, it's cold and wet, while other's legs are adjusting from the change in pedaling action, while the climbers who have no body fat or body mass are riding hard just to try and stay warm...hit em while they are all down. They cycling gods won't let a 6th victory...it will not be raining July 16th.

It was fun last year to watch JU work and work up the mountain with Mayo and Zubeldia right on his wheel. LA off the front and gonna get the 20 second win bonus...JU trying to control the time gap. I forget who I was watching with, but we knew that the 2 EEs were gonna try to jump JU for the 2nd and 3rd place time bonus and leave JU cold. I do hope that JU 'pays them back' someday and takes a couple of cheap seconds to ruin their day.

Postal and CSC will pull a USPS Vuelta Echelon on a windy early stage in Belgium and shatter some GC's hopes in the first week. those 'wheel sucking' :) E.E. riders could be the victim. I don't think what E.E. does in the mountains is anything different than what almost every lower $$ team does. they can't afford high $ roulers and climbing dom's, so they use Postals, ONCE's (last year) whoever. It's where USPS doesn't get enough credit, in their ability to control tempo on so many stages, look at how teams in the Giro (which is by no means as hard) can't dominate the front in the same way. (Fassa excluded on sprint stages)

Now I REALLY think Mayo can win the Tour. Assumptions:

Mayo loses 1:45 to Lance in TTT and 2:00 to Lance in long ITT
Mayo picks up 2:00 on Alpe de Huez ITT and another minute or 2 from various Mt stage attacks. They finish the tour equal on time and Mayo wins because he has better stage placings and a win on L Alpe!

-Nik