1 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel 7.51
2 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak 0.01
3 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor 0.02
4 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Phonak 0.03
5 Michael Rogers (Aus) Quick.Step-Davitamon 0.06

Wow. This year's TDF predictions are getting interesting...

Ullrich better be on form for the mountains, or these top 3 could be the TDF podium (not that order, though).

Phonak has 5 out of the top 10. These guys are ready to rock in July.

Mayo is looking incredible. And there is no reason things can't end up in this order in Paris.

Phonak has 5 out of the top 10. These guys are ready to rock in July.

Mayo is looking incredible. And there is no reason things can't end up in this order in Paris.

Believe me, I'd love to Mayo to beat Armstrong this year at the Tour, but Mayo and Armstrong finished in the same spots at last year's Dauphine prologue so at this point there's really not much reason to be more hopeful than last year. Let's see what happens in the mountains.

Believe me, I'd love to Mayo to beat Armstrong this year at the Tour, but Mayo and Armstrong finished in the same spots at last year's Dauphine prologue so at this point there's really not much reason to be more hopeful than last year. Let's see what happens in the mountains.

Ya that was only a Prologue. Dont start counting out LA yet. Short TT/Prologues arent really LA's thing. Not enough time for the V8 to warm up.

Believe me, I'd love to Mayo to beat Armstrong this year at the Tour, but Mayo and Armstrong finished in the same spots at last year's Dauphine prologue so at this point there's really not much reason to be more hopeful than last year.

Mayo spent Saturday competing and barely missing out on victory in the brutally difficult Classique des Alpes. Armstrong spent the day watching TV while lying down. Mayo is in awesome climbing condition. So is Sevilla--surprisingly.

is silly, otherwise McGee would have won Romandie and the Giro. But yes, Mayo looks great. I think Tyler may have rubbed off what he's learned about training etc.. on his teammates. I think the model established by USPS (Team, training, etc..) is going to be the standard for teams with GT aspirations.

Prediction: The TDF podium will be the Dauphine podium, but with Ullrich substituting Mayo. I think Tyler is the real deal as long as he doesn't crash. Mayo is gonna get spanked in the long ITT, lose 2 minutes in the TTT, but will do great on the L'Alpe Duez TT.

Prediction: The TDF podium will be the Dauphine podium, but with Ullrich substituting Mayo. I think Tyler is the real deal as long as he doesn't crash. Mayo is gonna get spanked in the long ITT, lose 2 minutes in the TTT, but will do great on the L'Alpe Duez TT.

I wouldn't count Heras out. He just won the Bizkleta in Spain and rode a decent TT, and Liberty Seguros should be able hold their own in the TTT if not put some time into Postal.

I wouldn't count Heras out. He just won the Bizkleta in Spain and rode a decent TT, and Liberty Seguros should be able hold their own in the TTT if not put some time into Postal.


That would be a huge dissapointment to Postal to lose time to Liberty Seguros in the TTT. I think Ekimov would sooner die out on the course from exhaustion and abandon after the stage, than lose time to LS in the TTT. They have some strong TT to be sure, Igor et al... What will be cool is to see how much time (if any) Heras can put on Lance, Jan tyler on L alpe ITT.

-Nik

I think Ekimov would sooner die out on the course from exhaustion and abandon after the stage, than lose time to LS in the TTT.

Eki will probably get over it since Postal is used to losing time to O.N.C.E.

everyone seems to forget the ONCE connection to LS and their domination in the TTT. They've won every year but last if memory serves me right over recent times. They'll be as fast as anyone. I'm just imagining a Saeco-esque meltdown between Jan and Vino. what if Vino is on and Jan isn't will they end up with a unhappy Simoni/Cunego swap?

everyone seems to forget the ONCE connection to LS and their domination in the TTT. They've won every year but last if memory serves me right over recent times. They'll be as fast as anyone. I'm just imagining a Saeco-esque meltdown between Jan and Vino. what if Vino is on and Jan isn't will they end up with a unhappy Simoni/Cunego swap?


I really don't have much faith in Vino in the high mountains, I think it's because he just doesn't look like someone who should be able to climb :-) And to the best of my recollection didn't he gain time last year on 2 stages because essentially, the favorites were marking each other, and tactically he got away. For some reason I just can't see him a serious overall threat despite his 3rd place last year.

he won't be able to make breaks as easily as he will be marked. Last year he did damage control in the high mtns, but made some fantastic attacks on the lesser climbs (where he gained most time, especially Beloki's crash stage) where he benefiited from the chaos from that crash. I doubt he'll contend either unless Jan faulters, but is an interesting concept as Cunego was supposed to die in the high mtns as well. without the massive help he got last year from his team reeling in Tylers escapehe'd have finished off the podium. I think Hamilton is the man to watch right now. He and his team seem to be firing on all cyclinders.

Yes, don't they look strong. Has anyone seen any blubs out there about Phonak practicing the TTT or riding the course itself?

For the TTT, it seems that a team has to do homework to do well. While Tmobile has a strong team on paper, they have been fairly mediocre...even in 2003, Bianchi put time into Tmobile. Saiz always drills his teams well for the TTT. Credit Ag also did thier homework a few years ago when they put in a good ride. As strong as CSC and Phonak look on paper, until they put the time in drilling the TTT, I'm left thinking that they will lose out.

I think Hamilton is the man to watch right now. He and his team seem to be firing on all cyclinders.

Until today, when he got dropped on the final climb and had to catch back up on the descent! He attributed it to the heat and not racing for awhile. We'll see, he could be right or may just be a bad day, or may be he peaked too early and can't hold his top form all the way through the Tour.

thanx for the 4-1-1. didn't realize, doesn't sound good. we'll have to see what happens in the next few days.

everyone seems to forget the ONCE connection to LS and their domination in the TTT. They've won every year but last if memory serves me right over recent times. They'll be as fast as anyone. I'm just imagining a Saeco-esque meltdown between Jan and Vino. what if Vino is on and Jan isn't will they end up with a unhappy Simoni/Cunego swap?

Out of the 2003 ONCE TDF team here is who is NOT there now:
Note: all strong TT guys.

Jose Azevedo - gone! Postal
Jorge Jaksche - gone! CSC
Josheba Beloki - gone! Brioches and Eclairs
Mikal Praivar - Isle Bares ( I think)

These are just the ones I know of so that is why I though Once will not be able to be as strong as years past in the TTT.

I do agree that Manolo Saiz will drill the sh** out of them but no Jose and Joseba is a gig loss any way you slice it.

Call me crazy, but drilling the team to ride harmoniously seems more important than the cumulative horse power of each rider. Rabo and Mapei/Quickstep could be argued to have the strongest one day riders and they've never done a decent TTT. Telekom has had very strong tour type riders and they have not done great. Gerolsteiner should theoritically have the strongest TTT ability, with Totschnig, Rich and Peschel all very strong (if not specialists) at ITT. But they did not do that well in 2003.

Maybe I'm a victim of the media also...when cyclingnews mentions that a team practiced the TTT a week before the Tour starts, I might just focus on checking thier results and it always seems good. Also, maybe chicken and egg...if a team is focusing on the TTT, it will pre-ride the course etc etc.

But, Oldschool points out some important riders. Instead of LS riding for the win, they may be fighting for 3-5th place...we're probably more concerned about time than placing, and I don't think that Heras will lose much (what? half minute) to the Postal camp here.
It may be more important between LS and EE in the TTT anyway...