Wow, Armstrong has got to be upset with that performance! He can't be happy with that at all!

Hamilton looked great and Mayo, wow, what a ride!

Wow. The TdF 2004 edition is going to be a smokin' race! Maybe even better than last year, and that is saying alot.

Why I like the the Mount V MTT results

1) LA did not win
I'm not anti-LA, but it is a bit boring win he dominates everything

2) LA plan this year is to come into the Tour pre-peak, ride into better form during the first two weeks. So, he should still be building. With this result, he still has room to grow

3) 1999 time for LA was 57:52, today 57:49...he has actually improved 3 seconds...not that 1999 was his strongest or best year, but the younger have power and the older have endurance

4) so what if the Ventoux kicks LA's butt...it will only serve to remotivate him in the next couple weeks

5) Hammy did a great ride! keep on track and ride well

6) Hammy beat Sevilla (still got that paranoid chip on my shoulder about Sevilla usurping instead of riding teammate) and also beat LA.

7) Levi did a real good ride! let's see an improvement on your 2002 8th place in July

8) Team support. Top 10 has double USPS, double Rabo, double Phonak
Postal has Floyd and Azevedo showing well (Beltran a bit off ?!)
Phonak A squad is split and still got 2nd and 3rd

Strong teams will make the Tour much more interesting.

9) Mayo! can he double in MTT? The L'Alpe looks tempting. In 2003, he was allowed to slip the group. He can confirm with the win on July 21.

Once the young get the confidence, they are that more dangerous. This win (and if he gets the overall) will encourage him to attack more in July.

10) Tour 04 is setting up to be more spectacular than ever. 23 days til the Prolog and then we don't have to worry about teases like this.

which I can't reconcile. 1 is that Armstrong was sagging the climb a little bit. It's not the tour, it's hot, let's let mayo et al. burn themselves out a little bit. My second, contradictory thought is this (I love to play devil's advocate with myself): Armstrong clearly does not have the form he once had, will be worried about this result as he most likely targeted this stage to do well, and is not going to get #6.

Armstrong is a master tactician - I believe he may be holding back a little to let Phonak and EE do all the work in this race. Come the tour, they may be a little tired. Armstrong and the blue train burned themselves trying to win here last year so they've learned the lesson. Also, let Mayo think he can win the tour. Over-confidence is always the downfall of many a great champion. I'm sure Lance will be paying close attention to Mayo and Hamilton now. (Oh, and also Ullrich.)

He got his butt kicked. Beltran did a worse time than Victor Hugo Pena and barely beat Hincapie. The team is looking weak.

Phonak has 5 out of the top 15 places.

And Mayo says he still hasn't reached his peak.

Final in Paris:

1. Mayo
2. Ullrich
3. Hamilton

Any chance that he's "bluffing" his fit level and puropsely not cranking up his effort on that ITT? a) He's done the "bluff" thing before, b) he mentioned on one edition of the Lance Chronicles that he wasn't interested in "going into the Red."

Any thoughts?

I'm a little suspicious that he had a bit of an off day or he was bluffing a bit only because on any given day, he doesn't lose 2:00 to anyone on any type of ITT. Unless of course, he's not at a good fitness level and, in which case....What a Great TdF it'll be.

BT

you must really hate him to think he won't even podium. I think Hamilton will beat Mayo in the Tour as his team is stronger, he can do a flat ITT better and the TTT will hurt EE. To think Jan (whose form is the most 'off' of anyone to date) will podium and Lance will not is the worse case of inverse-homerism I've seen. Jan is showing some form in the Tour of Germany but it is the Tour of Germany and doesn't have the level of competition the the D.L. has. IMHO if he was 'serious' about winning the tour he would have rode the D.L. as todays stage is the best prep for A.dH TT. I don't know (or care) if LA was sagging, bluffing, whatever I just know Iban had a great day. This whole concept of 'riding into form' the first weeks of the Tour is what led to Big Mig's defeat, I wouldn't suggest it as a DS, trainer or coach.

Riding into form during the first week of the Tour is risky. It can happen....it can also backfire. (Didn't Mig want to finish off his form and lose a couple kilos in the sunny first week...but then it rained?)

I don't think that LA was sandbagging or bluffing. But, I don't think that this is a catastrophe. It will make Mayo and Hammy more confident that they can break LA when they hit the mountains next month. The young sharks are starting to smell blood.

I'm with ATP here, you can't possibly rule out Armstrong from the win, much less the podium for cripes sake based on a TT SIX WEEKS away from crunch time in Le Tour.

This has got to raise some red flags in the Armstrong Camp, but I wouldn't call the mortician just yet!

As for the Team, I am surprised about Beltran, but the team has plenty of guys to pick up the slack. Landis rode a storming Mtn TT today and Noval was excellent as well and has to be on the inside track for a Tour spot while Beltran has to be worried. Noval will be much better in the TTT which is gaining in importance in the Postal vs. Euskaltel battle...

One interesting thing about the TT today is that Armstrong's time is actually 3 seconds better than his personal best. Now, that's not a whole lot and conditions certainly can account for that and then some, but if you're a LA fan content yourself that he does not appear to be far off his form. If you're an anti-LA fan, you've got to be excited by the fact that someone did put 2' into LA on a ride he himself said was important.

I don't agree with this rope-a-dope thinking. To what purpose? Why give rivals confidence? It's not like they are going to forget about LA and not mark him come the Tour, no matter what. That said I could see it being the case that he did blow himself apart on this, but kept within some strict guidelines. I could see this being the case b/c at 32 you just don't recover as quickly from those kind of efforts as you do when you're 26 like Mayo.

One interesting thing about the TT today is that Armstrong's time is actually 3 seconds better than his personal best. Now, that's not a whole lot and conditions certainly can account for that and then some, but if you're a LA fan content yourself that he does not appear to be far off his form.

The problem with this reasoning is that Armstrong's personal best time on Ventoux came after riding nearly 200k prior to the ascent, not starting at the base of the climb...

The problem with this reasoning is that Armstrong's personal best time on Ventoux came after riding nearly 200k prior to the ascent, not starting at the base of the climb...


....but his bike is nowlighter and faster, they say the tarmac was just replaced for the race making it much much faster and smoother... the more I read on VeloNews aboyt Tyler's time splits the moore I think this is a break through ride for him that is getting lost in the Mayo story - TYLER BEAT LANCE by quite a margin - and his team ain't going tolose 2 minutes to Postl in the TTT nor will Tyler cede too much time in the long ITT - he just might crash, that's all :)

Wow, Armstrong has got to be upset with that performance! He can't be happy with that at all!

Hamilton looked great and Mayo, wow, what a ride!

I'm sure he's not happy about it, but I wonder if he is truly upset about it. I'm sure he got the splits on Mayo and the other guys and figured out he wasn't going to win the stage, and so why bother putting huge effort into a losing cause? I'm not saying he pulled a rope-a-dope, but it's wise to save some for the real show in July. Mayo was going to spank him today and I'm sure Lance realized that long before it actually happened. Ventoux is a very different climb than Alpe d'Huez, and a winning performance here does not necessarily give anyone an advantage there.

12345

Mayo lost 5.03 last year in the TT that Armstrong finished second to Ullrich...lost 19 seconds in the prologue, 3+ minutes in the TTT. Unless he finds wings in the mountains and LA cracks on a stage or two, I don't think he can do it in the mountains alone.

Hamilton, on the other hand...

more should be coming on this, but the oln board had hearsay quoting bruneel ...that at the second time check, it was clear that a chance at the win was gone and LA let up a bit from there on....

Something about a press conference tonight also. Either way, the 3 seconds was against the 1999 MTT, not his 2002 chase of Virenque...too hard to compare the MTT vs part of a stage. My point is that LA still rode a respectable time and that this is not a disaster.

While the DL can be a good indicator, thier legs are fairly fresh right now. In the Tour, the legs will be well stressed before the road goes up. Unless the leader has seven minutes in hand, that last week will be relentless and the long ITT a killer on time gaps.

He got his butt kicked. Beltran did a worse time than Victor Hugo Pena and barely beat Hincapie. The team is looking weak.

Phonak has 5 out of the top 15 places.

And Mayo says he still hasn't reached his peak.

Final in Paris:

1. Mayo
2. Ullrich
3. Hamilton

Well, I am a Lance fanboy and I think you are getting a little ahead of yourself (as someone else in this thread said the inverse-homerism in your post is unbelieveable). Lances performance does give me some concern but I think he will fine tune his fitness come Tour time (and that is not taking into account his mental toughness). I don't think the team looks weak at all (3 riders in the top 15 and 4 in top 20), Phonak has just been incredible (And I thought Tyler had made a mistake leaving CSC!). If someone beats Lance this year, I think it will be Hamilton. I have been saying that for a while. My podium (maybe wishful thinking enters here, but oh well) is........
1. Lance
2. Tyler
3. Jan
Mayo just misses. I think he is peaking now, and I believe (and have since the end of D/L last year) that Lance will allow Mayo to burn himself out in the Dauphine this year going for the win.

Another thought: ASO really screwed up with the time loss limit on the TTT, Mayo should thank his lucky stars for that piece of work. Without it we wouldn't be speculating about Mayos' chances.

you must really hate him to think he won't even podium. I think Hamilton will beat Mayo in the Tour as his team is stronger, he can do a flat ITT better and the TTT will hurt EE. To think Jan (whose form is the most 'off' of anyone to date) will podium and Lance will not is the worse case of inverse-homerism I've seen.

Armstrong is not a sportsman. He is motivated by spite, revenge, jealousy, etc. I think he will crack in the mountains under the pressure of the real climbers this year. And when he does he won't have the motivation to continue putting out 100%. He'll come up with some (many) excuses and try to get a stage win. No podium.

Jan has a history of trying even though he is destined to lose. Podium.

I actually think the podium will be Mayo/Ullrich/Hamilton with no particular order in mind. But the long TT will probably be Mayo's undoing, and Ullrich will have trouble handling sharp attacks by the climbers.

I haven't really had a lot of faith in Hamilton in the high mountains of a big stage race. I always saw him as an Indurain type of rider who can hang in the mountains and do a fantastic ITT. But I think I'll have to reacess that. His current power to weight ratio must be incredible. He has a very real shot at the top of GC.

My new predictions are:

1. Hamilton
2. Ullrich
3. Mayo
7. Armstrong

Well, I am a Lance fanboy and I think you are getting a little ahead of yourself ...

Looks like someone has had their heart broken.

Postal's climbing support is no where to be found--except for Azevedo. Landis cannot be counted on in the high mountains and Beltran is missing in action. The team is looking shaky.

Don't worry, though. I'm sure Armstrong will have a dozen excuses for you to choose from.

Man, did I lose a month or something? How can you possibly be counting LA out six weeks away? Today was a warm up race, not the TDF. If today had been the MTT, LA would have dug deep like he does in every TDF when the chips are rough and done something else. Does he really have to win this race to win the TDF? Is it a prerequisite? No. Unless Mayo can figure out how to not lose 8 minutes to LA in the TTT and ITT, I don't see him as a contender. Not to mention he has no team support. As for Hamilton, he is a domestique, not a team leader. Leaving CSC was the worst mistake he could have made. Phonak has gone too strong for the last two months and won't be fresh. Not to mention the fact they are a first year team. How do you think they will fare in their first TTT. I see them losing the full 2.5 minutes to the blue train. I don't think he has the team support of the blue train either later in the race. This isn't the TDF people. The whole blue train is assembled to win the TDF, not Paris-Roubaix, not L-B-L, not the Giro, and NOT this race!

Everyone seems to like yelling LA fanboy. I see this as his race to lose, not needing to prove himself worthy of winning. I am starting to get sick of playing doubting Thomas because he isn't winning in June. This one race is his buisness. Hamilton and Mayo don't have the luxury of training a whole year for one event. Postal permits this where Phonak and EE have other comittments their riders must meet. If you want to judge tour re****s based on past victories, didn't Hamilton win LBL last year? He came nowhere near the win this year so he must be off right? Here is my podium picks:

LA
JU
Christoph Mureau
Hamilton will be top 10 due to some flukey crash like a rain jacket in the rear wheel(again)
Mayo will be top 10 due to lack of team support and terrible ITT and TTT results

Man, did I lose a month or something? How can you possibly be counting LA out six weeks away?...As for Hamilton, he is a domestique, not a team leader.

When did they move the Tour to August?

Once a domestique, always a domestique? Someone should have told Bjarne Riis about that. And Lemond. And Indurain. And Pantani. And Ullrich. And...

Your crap about Hamilton and Phonak is so wrong it's funny.

When did they move the Tour to August?

Once a domestique, always a domestique? Someone should have told Bjarne Riis about that. And Lemond. And Indurain. And Pantani. And Ullrich. And...

Your crap about Hamilton and Phonak is so wrong it's funny.

Alp d'Huez is six weeks away.

And you're right, Phonak is gonna rock in the Tour...

1999 Dauphine Ventoux TT: Lance finished 5th behind Vaughters, Vinokourov, Belli and Beloki.

2000 Dauphine: Lance finished 11th behind Tyler on the Ventoux stage. Granted, Tyler was Postal's designated GC man and Lance wasn't going full steam.

2000 Tour: Lance rides away from everybody on the Ventoux stage-- everybody except for Pantani, to whom he gifts the stage win.

2002 Tour: At the end of a 221 km stage, Lance rides the fastest time up Ventoux and finishes third on the stage. According to cyclingnews.com, this time was faster than Vaughters' ITT time, though he did have the benefit of teammates pacing him up the mountain.

Lance has never been dominant on Ventoux at the Dauphine, but has delivered good performances at the tour. However, I will acknowledge that Armstrong has never lost 2 minutes on Ventoux, either. In any case, I think it's much too early to write off Big Tex. It's shaping up to be another epic race, with or without Armstrong.

well, before the D/L begins, lance and bruynell was all talking about the ventoux tt as the most important stage and as a really important chance to test how lance is riding, they called it a real test. then, he looses, not a big deal, but then he looses by 1.58sc, almost two minutes, now thats getting serious. and he got 5º, not 2º. its not only iban or tyler that are getting confidence, theres lots of guys smilling now.

how do you know if mayo is on his top form now? he already stated before the D/L that hes not at his top form now. i think he learned a lot last tour and hes not stupid as ullrich is to do the same mistake twice. in my opinion theres two things ullrich needs to do if he wants to win the tour;
1- have a expenrienced man behind him like bruynell or hiis
2- stop living like a rockstar and start being a real pro rider.

. If today had been the MTT, LA would have dug deep like he does in every TDF when the chips are rough and done something else? As for Hamilton, he is a domestique, not a team leader. Leaving CSC was the worst mistake he could have made. Phonak has gone too strong for the last two months and won't be fresh. Not to mention the fact they are a first year team. How do you think they will fare in their first TTT. I see them losing the full 2.5 minutes to the blue train. I don't think he has the team support of the blue train either later in the race. This isn't the TDF people. The whole blue train is assembled to win the TDF, not Paris-Roubaix, not L-B-L, not the Giro, and NOT this race!



sorry but or you are just joking or you are reall crazy. lance is not a magician, he is all about winning and he will do it if he can. as for tyler and mayo, csc team and phonak... im not even going to coment about what you wrote because its a joke right?

well, before the D/L begins, lance and bruynell was all talking about the ventoux tt as the most important stage and as a really important chance to test how lance is riding, they called it a real test. then, he looses, not a big deal, but then he looses by 1.58sc, almost two minutes, now thats getting serious. and he got 5º, not 2º. its not only iban or tyler that are getting confidence, theres lots of guys smilling now.

how do you know if mayo is on his top form now? he already stated before the D/L that hes not at his top form now. i think he learned a lot last tour and hes not stupid as ullrich is to do the same mistake twice. in my opinion theres two things ullrich needs to do if he wants to win the tour;
1- have a expenrienced man behind him like bruynell or hiis
2- stop living like a rockstar and start being a real pro rider.

The TDF Team Time trial is gonna make the Tour very interesting to watch. Face it, Mayos team was over 3 minutes down last year, BUT this year, the max a team can lose is 2:30. SO, its time to sit up, wave only lose 2:30.

Lance lost Ventoux, he knows it, Brunyell knows it, the team knows it etc etc However, remember again what another person here has posted, the Dauphine and the Ventoux are not very friendly to Lance.

The Alpe De Huez TT will be critical, BUT look at the stage right after the TT. Thats right, its ugly and long and lets face it, THAT is where I agree with Bob Roll, the Tour could be won or lost there.

Is Lance out of his prime? Hell yes. 2001 was the year that in reality, I think he was unbeatable. Is he going to do something special in this years Tour? You got me. BUT, this tour could be the best yet in may years....

The TDF Team Time trial is gonna make the Tour very interesting to watch. Face it, Mayos team was over 3 minutes down last year, BUT this year, the max a team can lose is 2:30. SO, its time to sit up, wave only lose 2:30.

Lance lost Ventoux, he knows it, Brunyell knows it, the team knows it etc etc However, remember again what another person here has posted, the Dauphine and the Ventoux are not very friendly to Lance.

The Alpe De Huez TT will be critical, BUT look at the stage right after the TT. Thats right, its ugly and long and lets face it, THAT is where I agree with Bob Roll, the Tour could be won or lost there.

Is Lance out of his prime? Hell yes. 2001 was the year that in reality, I think he was unbeatable. Is he going to do something special in this years Tour? You got me. BUT, this tour could be the best yet in may years....


..or else they will be watching the Tour from Le Grande Hotel because they will be eliminated - Teams will still have to finish within a percentage of the winning teams time - so they can't lollygag (don't know if that's the correct word) too much.

I do like all the heated opinions that have finally started to get thrown around on this board. The best part is nobady really can be proved right or wrong for about 45 days when meaninful tour results will start to come in. Although, I guess every year some contenders get washed out every year from crashes, splits in the field, doping scandals etc...

So let the wild speculation (and it IS WILD SPECULATON) continue.....

-Nik

The Alpe De Huez TT will be critical, BUT look at the stage right after the TT. Thats right, its ugly and long and lets face it, THAT is where I agree with Bob Roll, the Tour could be won or lost there.

Armstrong and his handlers seem absolutely terrified he won't be properly rested before the Tour or he'll overcook himself trying for victory in a race other than the Tour. They also decided to change his training schedule this year from what worked for the five previous years. These are probably related. They know that LA is having problems recovering as well as he did when he was younger.

I think when the climber put the screws to him on the Alpe there is a good chance he'll crack in the following stage. Although Mayo may not take the overall, he will be the instrument of Armstrong's destruction.

Are you feeling ok?

I agree that Mt V was not a disaster for LA. June is not July. LA wants to be still building form. Mayo can concentrate on something like this.

But, disagree;
Hammy is supposed to be the leader of the team. I don't know what has happened over in the Phonak camp, but they seemed to have come together as a team (similar to CSC) and that is a huge help. Hammy rode for a teammate in Romandie stage win, and that will help the team repay the leader. Also, I don't think that Tyler was expected for results...other than #1) try to defend LBL (decent finish especially with few racing days in the legs) #2) Romandie (which he did win) and #3) TdF. Looks to me like he was given pretty much free range to dedicate the whole year to the Tour.

(And I'm the one who keeps a chip on the shoulder about Sevilla riding for himself and usurping TH)

As much as I think that the French riders are due. Moreau in 3rd? I thought I was crazy looking for a top 5 from him. With his bronchitis hitting, I'd write him off (but he may get a prescription whereas Beloki didn't...different topic)

I still say that the TTT is more important about riding as a Team and training for the stage...not just raw horse power. Has Phonak pre-rode the course? I've not heard anything about that. I don't know who the director is, but so far, he has recruited quality riders to improve a decent former div 2 team and gotten them to ride together and really turn up the heat in May and June. With Phonak crowding the top of the results in TTs and MTTs, it looks like the director understands the importance of the team competition and riding the TTT last to know what other have done.

Phonak could blow up from going too hard. But I'd bet that they run USPS and LS very competitively in the TTT. I did not watch the TTT much before...while a bit more interesting that an ITT, still boring and you get almost as much on the live updates. But, yes, this year is one to watch...maybe every stage.

And, ATPJunkie, if you're out there, whacha think? I agree, a windy day up north and LS and USPS could eschelon...CSC should be smart enough to watch for it...maybe Phonak, but EE would never catch that. It's almost that you cannot afford to look away from the TV on any day... Is it July yet?

We can speculate all we want about how well Phonak is riding now, how Mayo hasn't peaked yet but is riding incredible, how Lance is old...but you can't overlook (and I think some of you have) that Lance has found a way, in each of the last five (need I remind that they were consecutive) years to win. Whether he's had to dig deeper, surround himself with a better cast of characters, or whatever - the fact remains that he has won. That cannot be refuted nor discounted. Add to that the experience and wisdom (race tactics, mental toughness, Tour prep) that come with being reigning champ and you'd have a hard time arguing against his chances this year.

Unless you're a blatant Lance-hater... :p \

Can't wait for the tour to start!

some will lose GC hopes in Belgium. As far as EE if their team doesn't get stronger they will again be rendered impotent in the Tour. Remember Tyler's break? Both Mayo and Zubledia lost GC positions as they had NO help. without T-Mob chasing for Vino they would have lost even more. No way can a tour be won IMHO without a TEAM. Phonak is a team and Tyler was allowed to build it. I see them as the most serious contender as they are unified, and all know who the boss is. They are following the winning formula which I think will better the T-Mob and CSC models. I'm sure after the Tour Phonak will build under Oscar for the Vuelta....sound familiar? great spanish climber helps team leader in Tour to be given the helm in his home race. As far as someone calling Tyler a dom.....4th in the Tour, 1st L-B-L, twice first Tour of Romandie and 2nd in the Giro.....please next time share your acid with the rest of us.

..or else they will be watching the Tour from Le Grande Hotel because they will be eliminated - Teams will still have to finish within a percentage of the winning teams time - so they can't lollygag (don't know if that's the correct word) too much.

I do like all the heated opinions that have finally started to get thrown around on this board. The best part is nobady really can be proved right or wrong for about 45 days when meaninful tour results will start to come in. Although, I guess every year some contenders get washed out every year from crashes, splits in the field, doping scandals etc...

So let the wild speculation (and it IS WILD SPECULATON) continue.....

-Nik

I didnt know about the time percentage rule still being in place as well as the 2:30 max time penalty. Still, the 2:30 max time loss sucks rocks. like the speculation as well.

One day we may see another super dominating performance at the TDF, when that will be who knows. Funny how at one time folks were just ape over Mancebo and how he would be the next revelation.

Now, its Mayo.

[QUOTE=atpjunkie]some will lose GC hopes in Belgium. As far as EE if their team doesn't get stronger they will again be rendered impotent in the Tour. Remember Tyler's break? Both Mayo and Zubledia lost GC positions as they had NO help. without T-Mob chasing for Vino they would have lost even more. No way can a tour be won IMHO without a TEAM. Phonak is a team and Tyler was allowed to build it. I see them as the most serious contender as they are unified, and all know who the boss is. They are following the winning formula which I think will better the T-Mob and CSC models. I'm sure after the Tour Phonak will build under Oscar for the Vuelta....sound familiar? great spanish climber helps team leader in Tour to be given the helm in his home race. As far as someone calling Tyler a dom.....4th in the Tour, 1st L-B-L, twice first Tour of Romandie and 2nd in the GiroQUOTE]


...but NOT the brown acid! :)

yes German liquiform L-25 please! just a footnote Hawaiian Surfer Michael Ho won the Pipleline Masters with a broken right wrist and ....he was ....yup, you guessed it. sorry for the digression, I think I'm having a flashback.

Has there been any coverage on OLN ? Tried searching their site but didnt find any listings.

Has there been any coverage on OLN ? Tried searching their site but didnt find any listings.

I read somewhere that the rights were too expensive to buy if they weren't sure Lance would ride. This year if you recall, Lance at first said he wasn't going to ride the DL - the only live coverage is in French on the official website (use google to find it) I don't know the url by heart nor do I know enough French.

-Nik

Looks like someone has had their heart broken.

Postal's climbing support is no where to be found--except for Azevedo. Landis cannot be counted on in the high mountains and Beltran is missing in action. The team is looking shaky.

Don't worry, though. I'm sure Armstrong will have a dozen excuses for you to choose from.

Been away from the computer for a few days, actually riding :). Anyway, no heartbreaking happening here, just laughter at the way alot of American cyclists think they are cool by not liking Lance. (I suppose they are suffering with their own little inferiority complex and it makes them feel better to like "real" european cycling heroes.) Obviously you didn't see the rest of my post, so let me repeat. 3 in the top 15 and 4 in the top 20 do not make a weak team. And I still say that more than anything that ridiculous time loss limit in the TTT is the only reason we are considering Mayo's chances.