After reading today's cyclingnews, it seems like the 60K ITT is going to be hilly and rolling with some actual 4 or 5 k moderate climbs. It seems to me Mayo (assuming he has improved a bit on ITT skills) might not lose too much to Lance at all. Until today, I was under the impression that it was pancake flat and Jan and LA would hammer eveyone.

Now, I am not so sure.

-Nik

I was looking for the older report I read on the TT. The first 15-20k were supposed to be rolling and have some climbs. But, then the last 45k were supposed to be more 'traditional'...maybe not flat, but not as hilly.

I view this as a two different TTs and the last 40k or so is where JU, LA, Millar, Tyler etc etc will put the time in. Also, if the climbers over cook themselves in the first hilly part, they could be REALLY blown and struggling the last 45k.

Cyclingnews' still held the description that it is a course for the 'hard men' and I don't count Mayo or Heras as hard men. They follow wheels on the flat and only attack when there is a mountain to grind against (admittedly very well). With a rolling stage, they may not get in thier climbing rythem to make time.

Mayo I say is too young. Everyone's legs will be very tired by this time. In 2003, he was fading in the final week. The Besancon TT will magnify this effect and I'm looking for surprisingly large time gaps (for those few that bother to ride it hard).

But, that is why I'm anxiously awaiting the profiles of every stage.

they judge fromthe mt vont itt mayo and hamilton avg 350-380 watts for the climb
armstrong 420-450watts for climb level the road and figure it out.The 15kg weight diffrence wont matter as much and armstrong will be lighter by then.Also the climbers will be more beat up by the tour with its longer and faster stages.
Also armstrong is as strong right now as he was in 1999 just look at the itt results.then you really have to wonder if he went all out,he already said the lalp duez will have diffrent results!!!!!

That will tell us if the stage will truly be one for the "hard men" If Bernard Hinault has anything to do with it I would imagine he doesn't wan't Lance to break his record of TDF victories maybe he made it really hilly to favor the climbers? I guess though with that reasoning, he couldhave just made it a short 20k ITT and really take diesels out of it.

I was really just trying to stir debate and make all the Lance lovers nervous. I like the guy myself, I just would love to see Tyler or Jan win the tour this year, but above all I would love to see an exciting TDF again.

-Nik

I'm with you Nik. Above all, I want a spectacular race. Like last year, but with more players.

So, let's stir it up more....(I don't normally troll...)

Beltran does not look like he is in shape..that leaves CheChu and Azevedo for the high mountain support. Azevedo is not a replacement for Heras. When the mountain is high and steep, LA will soon be isolated.

Postal team will have too many diesels on thier Tour team. Pavel, Hincapie, Benoit, Eki, Pena etc would normally be the flat land support. They are also very important for the TTT. USPS needs to max the TTT gaps, so they will be included. But if you look at the route, USPS may only get to defend the lead on the very last day. Until then, a great climber on a good TTT team may wear the yellow jersey for a week.

Tyler has gotten his crash out of the way, so he will stay upright during the Tour.

Hinault does not want a six time winner. If a fan does not punch LA, look for Hinault to be standing on a mountain side with a musette bag! Or a tainted water bottle. Afterwards, don't be surprised to see him pushing Moreau up the hill himself.

Cosmic fate did not allow Merckx, Indurain or Hinault win 6, why will it let LA? It will be rainy on the flat stages but hot and humid in the mountains. If it were to rain at LaMongie and we see LA deliver his signature killer punch, the tour is over. But, it will be hot and sunny.

Ullrich has learned to play poker and will surprise. He has already started ruling his team with an iron fist. Beloki will emerge as the replacement to Vino to put another "chief" back into Tmobile. (maybe they skip the pink and wear celeste also!)

McGee continues his climbing form and wins a mountain stage only to be DQ'd for holding onto DeDe (the devil german dude who shows at each race) and being pulled up the mountain.

(ok, the first couple are half truths that might be important, but I've gone too far now...is it July yet?)

<< If a fan does not punch LA, look for Hinault to be standing on a mountain side with a musette bag! Or a tainted water bottle. >>

The devil guy was at the TD Swisse this year too - there were lots of pics of him cheering on Der Kaiser - BTW, I was going to post the picture of him in the TD Swisse tent - if that guy is overweight than so is Callista Flockart!!!!!!!

-Nik


I'm with you Nik. Above all, I want a spectacular race. Like last year, but with more players.

So, let's stir it up more....(I don't normally troll...)

Beltran does not look like he is in shape..that leaves CheChu and Azevedo for the high mountain support. Azevedo is not a replacement for Heras. When the mountain is high and steep, LA will soon be isolated.

Postal team will have too many diesels on thier Tour team. Pavel, Hincapie, Benoit, Eki, Pena etc would normally be the flat land support. They are also very important for the TTT. USPS needs to max the TTT gaps, so they will be included. But if you look at the route, USPS may only get to defend the lead on the very last day. Until then, a great climber on a good TTT team may wear the yellow jersey for a week.

Tyler has gotten his crash out of the way, so he will stay upright during the Tour.

Hinault does not want a six time winner. If a fan does not punch LA, look for Hinault to be standing on a mountain side with a musette bag! Or a tainted water bottle. Afterwards, don't be surprised to see him pushing Moreau up the hill himself.

Cosmic fate did not allow Merckx, Indurain or Hinault win 6, why will it let LA? It will be rainy on the flat stages but hot and humid in the mountains. If it were to rain at LaMongie and we see LA deliver his signature killer punch, the tour is over. But, it will be hot and sunny.

Ullrich has learned to play poker and will surprise. He has already started ruling his team with an iron fist. Beloki will emerge as the replacement to Vino to put another "chief" back into Tmobile. (maybe they skip the pink and wear celeste also!)

McGee continues his climbing form and wins a mountain stage only to be DQ'd for holding onto DeDe (the devil german dude who shows at each race) and being pulled up the mountain.

(ok, the first couple are half truths that might be important, but I've gone too far now...is it July yet?)

are out on letour.fr

The 60K tt Besancon profile does not contain much flat. But, it does not look like it has hills to favor a climber. More like those who have the big wattage and roll the big gear well. from 4.5k to 9k is the 'steepest' roller, gaining about 175 meters...I'd go back to the thread on figuring out %grade and pull out a calculator, but I'm too lazy today (stage 1 has a 4.4k climb, 195 meter gain saying it's 4.4%...so what, maybe 4%?)

I can guess why you would ditch the new TT bike, if it is really an issue of reduced drag, but loss of power transfer. The 17ks of uphill warrent keeping all the power you can.

I'd hate to be the rider starting right before JU. I'd hate to be the rider starting in front of that. Maybe even the rider starting....

are out on letour.fr

The 60K tt Besancon profile does not contain much flat. But, it does not look like it has hills to favor a climber. More like those who have the big wattage and roll the big gear well. from 4.5k to 9k is the 'steepest' roller, gaining about 175 meters...I'd go back to the thread on figuring out %grade and pull out a calculator, but I'm too lazy today (stage 1 has a 4.4k climb, 195 meter gain saying it's 4.4%...so what, maybe 4%?)

I can guess why you would ditch the new TT bike, if it is really an issue of reduced drag, but loss of power transfer. The 17ks of uphill warrent keeping all the power you can.

I'd hate to be the rider starting right before JU. I'd hate to be the rider starting in front of that. Maybe even the rider starting....


It will be very up and down - it would seem to favor Lance and Jan maybe more than I thought - I wonder if Mayo will not do as bad as everyone is saying though.

BTW, are you surprised/saddened by Phonak leaving Alexandre Moos off the TDF :) team?


Niko

I have not followed Moos lately. I'm speculating (since ATPJunkie likes to remind us arm chair directors of that) that he rode his races hard and needs a rest. I hope Elminger gets in a break one day and gets a good chance...he seemed to fight some noble losing battles during the classics.

I was a bit surprised that Zulle AND Camerzind are going to be watching from home...only one Swiss rider on the Swiss team. I first thought Zulle's experiance would be a great help to TH. But, other than crashing, what is Zulle gonna do for TH? It's not like Tyler is a rookie or unexperianced.

I wonder who is gonna attend the captain meetings? Or, if Phonak holds the Jersey, who is gonna sit on the front of the race and try to discourage attacks? It's usually someone very experianced and who the entire peleton respects (but not a GC rider with a shot). I image Eki has done this for USPS since Andreu retired. Maybe Jalabert?

nice disclaimer!

atp (board cop)

but it's fun to speculate anyway...

MartyMoose (just bored)

p.s. I went back thru the Tour long TTs for the past couple of years and looked at 1) flatness, 2) preceding stages until a mountain stage...to gauge how tired the legs would be and 3) time gaps to any 'serious' climber who also was somewhat in the GC hunt. I can make some generalizations and extrapolate into speculation for this year, if anyone wants to hear that...it won't be as interesting what I did Tuesday...review of the TTT results of the Tour since 2000 and watching for trends and speculating about the 2004 tour...