Here's mine. He'll be waiting at the top, smiling down at the rest of his comrades...(R.I.P. Marco):

If Armstrong has one saving grace, its being able to conquer L'Alpe. His style adapts well to the acceleration and rhythm changes of the switchbacks. Ulrich is more a power rider better suited to steady hard efforts. Advantage goes to Lance on that stage. Watch out for Mayo though if he is in contention at that point.

Heras,

He then loses the Tour to Ullrich in the final TT.

Hamilton will win the TT, but the gap between Tyler, Lance, Jan and Mayo will be less than 45 seconds. Heras will lose time in the 1st week, so his Alpe result won't matter.

I doubt the pirate would have won. The only white powder up there is during ski season and the race is in july. As for my ITT favorite I will go with virenque. He is looking to make his mark on the tour this year as he is saying it might be his last. What better way to do it than win a this stage. He has the climbing ability, and it starts at the climb. He usually gets worked over by the time the big climbs start due to his team, so this should be right up his alley.

[QUOTE=Dwaynebarry]Heras,

Don't think he'll place higher than 5th overall, though

Yes, I know that he will probably take the day off and not ride hard....but I have to put a darkhorse out there.

Virenque will suicide break early on stages 13, 15 and 17 for early mountain points. He does not have a shot at stage 16, so he won't try. He will take advantage of the GC favorites conserving strength the day before the MTT. He will try to sweep the mountain points on stage 15.

CheChu, ride stage 16 for yourself!

Ulrich is more a power rider better suited to steady hard efforts.

And this isn't condusive to winning this kind of a stage?
I'm probably going to be the only one that says this but I'm going out on a limb and picking ullrich to win the alpe itt. Here's my reasoning.
On the big slopes ullrich is always in contention steadily ticking away. He never gets the jump and pulls away from the pure climbers because acceleration isn't in his bag of tricks. When someone dances away from him he rarely follows but often catches them with steady prolonged effort. This will be exactly what's needed to win this stage. He is a great climber but rarely wins on major mountain stages because he can't accelerate. Acceleration isn't what's going to win this stage steady tempo riding will.
My pick is Ullrich.

Virenque will suicide break early on stages 13, 15 and 17 for early mountain points. He does not have a shot at stage 16, so he won't try. He will take advantage of the GC favorites conserving strength the day before the MTT. He will try to sweep the mountain points on stage 15.

Right. My man Virenque will take it easy on Alpe d'Huez. He may take a shot at stage 10 since that is on Bastille day and has quite a few mountains points. That is a good stage for a break to stay away; it is the first in the mountains and the peloton will want to ease into the Tour's climbing. Stage 17 will also be a good day for him to clinch the jersey.

I'll pick Heras or Mayo for the win on the Alpe. Although the grade doesn't absolutely smile on them. The old saying goes, "You cannot win the Tour on Alpe d'Huez but you can lose it." Of course there has never been a time trial on it, so maybe the old saying won't hold true. The Alpe is not as steep as the Ventoux during the meat of the climb. The switchbacks will allow a pure climber to burn himself out for the next stage by sprinting around them.

I don't think Ullrich will lose any time to LA. Maybe he loses a little to Hamilton.

One or two of the riders who do well on the Alpe will be destroyed during stage 17.

From an article earlier this month at cyclingnews.com - Dr. Ferrari:

"This year, the Dauphiné uphill time trial on Ventoux (21.6 km, 1620 m of difference in altitude) did bring forward some interesting results, as usual, and even some surprises.

In the hardest part of the ascent (9.8 km at 9.2 percent gradient), Mayo and Hamilton expressed a VAM of 1860 m/h; Armstrong made 1810 m/h (difference of 2.7 percent). Not considering the influence of the wind (somehow always present on this climb), and guessing a body weight of 60 kg for Mayo and Hamilton, both of them were able to push on this distance a power output of about 370-380 watts, while Lance (75 kg) generated approximately 450-460 watts."

So with Alpe 1/2 the distance as Ventoux, and a probable 3% drop in LA's weight, and his 10% greater power output (as noted above)..... ummm, I kinda think LA's gonna be able to control his placing-

Ullrich to climb with Lance? Nope. Ullrich has never put Lance in trouble on a full climb. Won't be this year either.

Lots of really fit riders rollin' in - should be a good one. Let's see who's protected the most and then who wants to suffer when it counts.

Anyone heard how Bottero's fitness is? Now there's a guy who can grind it out. Tough SOB, he is. His name doesn't come up much in the T-Mobile thing - he'll have a big role now with Vino out - oops, gettin' off the subject of the ITT...

he's picking Lance. This course suits his riding, Mayo and Tyler will be there as well. I don't see Jan having a good day, not his kind of climb. can't lay down the power with all those switchbacks. I hope Jan does well but I'm just not seeing it.

Mayo's chances will be hurt by his lack of team in the previous and following stages.

Heras has shown that, while riding as a captain and if sufficiently motivated, can outclimb most of the world. I watch his time trial at Abantos every so often and am blown away by his output, all after several days of attacking to gain back time on Nozal. Don't know if he'll take the win but he will contend.

I honestly think that LA will only win the day if he needs to, based on what advantage/deficit he has after the Pyrénées. There are several hard days after the Alpe d'Huez and I doubt Bruyneel is going to have him tap reserves if he doesn't need to. Placing top five and keeping your rivals in check is more likely. As for the Ventoux ITT, I don't think LA's performace was a bluff or a show of weakness. It was a training race, postal did nothing to suggest that they were there to perform, the Landis interview was pretty honest about that.

Great thread. I dig reading everyone's insight even though none of us really have a clue what will happen. But I guess I'll see you all on a new thread the afternoon of the 21st.

should do well unless he doesn't get the suport in the Mtns. yes his comeback in the vuelta was awesome but once again it like the Giro lacks the 'bite' of the tour. Personally if I was Johann I'd let Heras get a controllable lead in the Pyr. and let Saiz drive his team into the ground and then attack in the Alps. The Team strategy is what always keeps me intrigued. I think Johann and Bjane are the 2 most savvy DS's out there. I'm still calling for echelon nightmares if there's wind in Belgium. I think if there is some GC contenders may have their hopes dashed before the touch French soil

Here's mine. He'll be waiting at the top, smiling down at the rest of his comrades...(R.I.P. Marco):

a whining psycho with epo running out of his ears between coke snorts...figures

a whining psycho with epo running out of his ears between coke snorts...figures

Wow. Incredibly disrespectful.

i agree with Craghop that one or 2 of the riders that do well on the L Alpe will lose touch with the leaders on the following days insanely tough stage.

My rationale for Heras winning is also based on his NEED to put more time into rivals for long ITT and for the possibility that he is down on time from the TTT - although I know many of you feel that Manolo Saiz's teams will always drill the TTT, I still think they just don't have the wattage firepower they used to with Beloki and Jasche etc...

If any of the pure climbers are out of contention by the L Alpe TT then i would pick on eof those becasue they would be able to bury themself, have a spot in history, to make up for losing the GC/podium etc..
-Nik

Wow. Incredibly disrespectful.

sorry. no respect for cheaters and druggies.

sorry. no respect for cheaters and druggies.

Try to show a little class--if you have any.

Wow. Incredibly disrespectful.

Nothing new for bill105. But I doubt it's a sincere moral position on his part against drugging in cycling, he just likes to troll anything I post - he does it all the time on the "Politics Only" board.

**Yawn** :rolleyes:

I see him finishing 3-5 in the overall but I like him in the uphill ITT.

[QUOTE=Dwaynebarry]Heras,

Don't think he'll place higher than 5th overall, though