This is just speculation but I'm curious to hear the opinions.
Shimano is a very solid and reliable company. They're constantly innovating, creating and putting out new products. They set their own deadlines and they meet them. It's no secret that Shimano runs a 3 year product cycle and, well, it's time for Dura-Ace mechanical to get a full update.
So... what are they doing? 12 speed? Maybe. There's been technical drawings and such of it, but it doesn't seem like road bikes really need it or could benefit much from it. Wouldn't that now take a wider hub than before? Isn't 11 speed maxing out what we have now? Oh that's right... disc brakes and wider hub spacing, the 142 thru axle. Will disc brakes lead to all hubs getting wider? Will all road bikes be on thru axles soon even if they have caliper brakes just to standardize things?
Power meter? Maybe. Shimano's long since had a power meter and they hold many patents for it. It's on their fitting bikes and they've been designing it for many years. Let's face it, if you can benefit from the weight advantage of Dura-Ace you can benefit from and should be using the pacing tool that is a power meter.
Dropping mechanical? Is there really any improvement they can make on the shifting? Will they really release a whole new Dura-Ace with the exact same shifting? Will they only update things for the new disc brake standard? Can they actually improve on the shifting with a new front derailleur design or something (not needed imo)?
Trade mechanical for hydraulic? With the disc brakes being hydraulic already and Rotor proving it can be done will they make a hydro shifting group? This is a maybe for sure. Hydro rim brakes, hydro derailleurs, that's lots of new stuff worthy of a group launch. Any Di2 designed frame will be able to run hydraulic lines so no worries there. This is a real possibility but quite far fetched.
A switch to carbon? Will They go the route of Campy and just try to make everything carbon twill weave that they can? Will they shun the Duralumin alloy in favor of good ol' carbon fiber? I really doubt this. I think they'll stick to what they're doing now in terms of the types of materials they use. Full carbon fiber Shimano brakes? Doubt it but you never know.
Will they re-invent the disc brake just as it's been standardized and accepted? The pro peloton has a standard now for disc brakes, it's fully agreed upon, inked, sealed, all that. It's 142mm rear hub with thru axle and 100mm front with thru axle, both thru axles being 12mm. Zero need for a 15mm up front in a road bike. Also a new brake mounting and design standard, the flat mount. So anyway even though there is a new standard in place the UCI refuses to call it a standard. They've coined the term "mutually agreed upon specification" or some bullshit like that. Why is it not a real standard? Because manufacturers don't fully agree on it. Is it just Specialized who are foaming at the mouth with their junk SCS system nobody will use or support? Or is Shimano letting the UCI know that there's a big change coming? Will the new flat mount standard be used to make a radically new design for road disc brakes? Fully covered carbon rotors or something? Maybe a whole new sealed desgin or something?
What do you think Shimano is going to do this year? What will the new Dura-Ace be?
Shimano is a very solid and reliable company. They're constantly innovating, creating and putting out new products. They set their own deadlines and they meet them. It's no secret that Shimano runs a 3 year product cycle and, well, it's time for Dura-Ace mechanical to get a full update.
So... what are they doing? 12 speed? Maybe. There's been technical drawings and such of it, but it doesn't seem like road bikes really need it or could benefit much from it. Wouldn't that now take a wider hub than before? Isn't 11 speed maxing out what we have now? Oh that's right... disc brakes and wider hub spacing, the 142 thru axle. Will disc brakes lead to all hubs getting wider? Will all road bikes be on thru axles soon even if they have caliper brakes just to standardize things?
Power meter? Maybe. Shimano's long since had a power meter and they hold many patents for it. It's on their fitting bikes and they've been designing it for many years. Let's face it, if you can benefit from the weight advantage of Dura-Ace you can benefit from and should be using the pacing tool that is a power meter.
Dropping mechanical? Is there really any improvement they can make on the shifting? Will they really release a whole new Dura-Ace with the exact same shifting? Will they only update things for the new disc brake standard? Can they actually improve on the shifting with a new front derailleur design or something (not needed imo)?
Trade mechanical for hydraulic? With the disc brakes being hydraulic already and Rotor proving it can be done will they make a hydro shifting group? This is a maybe for sure. Hydro rim brakes, hydro derailleurs, that's lots of new stuff worthy of a group launch. Any Di2 designed frame will be able to run hydraulic lines so no worries there. This is a real possibility but quite far fetched.
A switch to carbon? Will They go the route of Campy and just try to make everything carbon twill weave that they can? Will they shun the Duralumin alloy in favor of good ol' carbon fiber? I really doubt this. I think they'll stick to what they're doing now in terms of the types of materials they use. Full carbon fiber Shimano brakes? Doubt it but you never know.
Will they re-invent the disc brake just as it's been standardized and accepted? The pro peloton has a standard now for disc brakes, it's fully agreed upon, inked, sealed, all that. It's 142mm rear hub with thru axle and 100mm front with thru axle, both thru axles being 12mm. Zero need for a 15mm up front in a road bike. Also a new brake mounting and design standard, the flat mount. So anyway even though there is a new standard in place the UCI refuses to call it a standard. They've coined the term "mutually agreed upon specification" or some bullshit like that. Why is it not a real standard? Because manufacturers don't fully agree on it. Is it just Specialized who are foaming at the mouth with their junk SCS system nobody will use or support? Or is Shimano letting the UCI know that there's a big change coming? Will the new flat mount standard be used to make a radically new design for road disc brakes? Fully covered carbon rotors or something? Maybe a whole new sealed desgin or something?
What do you think Shimano is going to do this year? What will the new Dura-Ace be?