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  1. #1
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    Thumbs up The "Peloton bike" success story

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/p...132256225.html

    The New York City-based Peloton, which now has over 900 employees, is worth more than $4 billion..
    This really surprises me. When I heard of this bike, I thought was a gimmicky thing that would come and go like all in-house exercise machines of the past. But in a matter of 5 years, this co goes from zero to $4 billion. That's pretty amazing entrepreneurial. This success story echos that of Zwift's.

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    A lot of people need a place to hang dry their clothes.
    Oh my, a troll who doesn't know the difference between your and you're. What will they think of next?

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by aclinjury View Post
    This really surprises me. When I heard of this bike, I thought was a gimmicky thing that would come and go like all in-house exercise machines of the past. But in a matter of 5 years, this co goes from zero to $4 billion. That's pretty amazing entrepreneurial. This success story echos that of Zwift's.
    They hit the gamification/exercise market at exactly the right time, in general. They also hit at a good time in terms of people who had been going to spin classes looking for an at home version. The timing for their product could not have been better

    I see they are planning an IPO in 2019. I would roughly guess (without running any numbers) they have until 2025 at the latest before growth in sales starts to tank. Once the sales growth slows, even if it is still growing, I would not want to be holding that stock.

    In general, sports/exercise booms are short lived, leaving a core behind when most move on to other things. Money can be made on the core (there are over 8000 jazzercise franchises still out there); fortunes can be made in the boom, and lost by those who don't see the crash coming.
    .
    Stout beers under trees, please.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by aclinjury View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/p...132256225.html



    This really surprises me. When I heard of this bike, I thought was a gimmicky thing that would come and go like all in-house exercise machines of the past. But in a matter of 5 years, this co goes from zero to $4 billion. That's pretty amazing entrepreneurial. This success story echos that of Zwift's.
    Even gimmicky can be successful




    Still, as an outdoorsy open roady kinda guy I was/am biased. Good for them and those who benefit from their use.

  5. #5
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    I'll sign up for a thigh master class right now!
    BANNED

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    They hit the gamification/exercise market at exactly the right time, in general. They also hit at a good time in terms of people who had been going to spin classes looking for an at home version. The timing for their product could not have been better

    I see they are planning an IPO in 2019. I would roughly guess (without running any numbers) they have until 2025 at the latest before growth in sales starts to tank. Once the sales growth slows, even if it is still growing, I would not want to be holding that stock.

    In general, sports/exercise booms are short lived, leaving a core behind when most move on to other things. Money can be made on the core (there are over 8000 jazzercise franchises still out there); fortunes can be made in the boom, and lost by those who don't see the crash coming.
    Planet Fitness franchises are supposed to be highly profitable with some locations having thousands of members registered-at $10 a month, many will keep on (auto)paying long after they stop going.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bremerradkurier View Post
    Planet Fitness franchises are supposed to be highly profitable with some locations having thousands of members registered-at $10 a month, many will keep on (auto)paying long after they stop going.
    I was a Planet Fitness member for a few years. Every January the place would get crowded with a bunch of new people. That would start to fade and by March or so it was back to normal. I imagine many of those folks continued to pay with the hope that they would "get back into". I would guess the Planet Fitness business model is based on a large percent of members not showing up

  8. #8
    tlg
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    I was a Planet Fitness member for a few years. Every January the place would get crowded with a bunch of new people. That would start to fade and by March or so it was back to normal. I imagine many of those folks continued to pay with the hope that they would "get back into". I would guess the Planet Fitness business model is based on a large percent of members not showing up
    Yes you're correct.
    My wife owns a yoga studio. There's always a large increase after "New Years Resolutions" and "Spring Bikini season". Then it drops off.
    She always pushes memberships and it's inevitable that many will stick on autopay for months and never come.
    Custom Di2 & Garmin/GoPro mounts 2013 SuperSix EVO Hi-MOD Team * 2004 Klein Aura V

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Yes you're correct.
    My wife owns a yoga studio. There's always a large increase after "New Years Resolutions" and "Spring Bikini season". Then it drops off.
    I noticed the reverse phenomenon at my neighborhood Cold Stone Creamery.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by aclinjury View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/p...132256225.html



    This really surprises me. When I heard of this bike, I thought was a gimmicky thing that would come and go like all in-house exercise machines of the past. But in a matter of 5 years, this co goes from zero to $4 billion. That's pretty amazing entrepreneurial. This success story echos that of Zwift's.
    For how they spam out the airwaves with TV ads...I'd think they would.

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    I was a Planet Fitness member for a few years. Every January the place would get crowded with a bunch of new people. That would start to fade and by March or so it was back to normal. I imagine many of those folks continued to pay with the hope that they would "get back into". I would guess the Planet Fitness business model is based on a large percent of members not showing up
    Almost all gym memberships are.

    It why they love New Year's Resolutions. Because those resolving always fail after 3-4 weeks and quit showing up--but paid for the whole year.
    "Refreshingly Unconcerned With The Vulgar Exigencies Of Veracity "

  11. #11
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    The problem with products like Peloton, captive market, and should they ever go out of business, you have a very stupid expensive $200 fancy looking exercise bike. That thing is 2k+. It is just your plain ordinary exercise bike, with a manual tension knob.....

    I'm sorry, to me, this product falls under the "a sucker born every minute" or "a fool and his money are easily parted" category.

  12. #12
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    The first time I saw a Peloton store, in a high-rent mall in California, I had to stop in and look. A few stationary bikes and some branded accessories were all they had. I wondered how they managed to make their lease.

    I'm not the spin class type. Hell, I get pissed when Zwift has too many riders on it. But I recognize some people are really into this sort of thing, and the convenience factor is pretty high for those with busy lives. With the right visual presentation and quality control, it will do well for a while. Then one of the Walmart kids will buy it and...

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alaska Mike View Post
    With the right visual presentation and quality control, it will do well for a while. Then one of the Walmart kids will buy it and...
    Elon Musk is gonna buy them, then network them all to power his Hyperloop.

  14. #14
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    I think there is actually a market for this. Personally I know at least 2 former avid cyclists (who rode high end bikes) and have taken to in-house stationary bikes. One person quit because he was sick of dealing with other cyclists and cars, he was a bit of an unfriendly guy though. Another person who quit was a female who was a strong avid cyclist, but an on-road accident (she hit a construction cone) knock her unconscious for a few minutes and she had to be admitted to the hospital. Afterwards, she never got back on the road but she still does a lot of spin class and last I heard she got a stationary bike to get on Zwift, just won't get on the road again.

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    No Zwift, though. Which is a shame. They need to open up the connectivity a bit.

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    Kind of wondering how often Peleton users have forgotten or purposely had the webcam on while topless or nude Peleton-ing.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bremerradkurier View Post
    Kind of wondering how often Peleton users have forgotten or purposely had the webcam on while topless or nude Peleton-ing.
    I don't know but this is exactly why I gave up nude indoor training

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    I don't know but this is exactly why I gave up nude indoor training
    Peleton would need to spin it off to avoid sullying their corporate image, but nude streamed live Peleton-but-not-Peleton classes marketed to adults could be a gold mine.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    I don't know but this is exactly why I gave up nude indoor training
    And we are all very thankful for that

    Quote Originally Posted by Bremerradkurier View Post
    Peleton would need to spin it off to avoid sullying their corporate image, but nude streamed live Peleton-but-not-Peleton classes marketed to adults could be a gold mine.
    Porneton

  20. #20
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    I assume if you own one of those bikes, you have to pay a monthly fee for the on-line classes. So instead of getting people once for the machine, they keep making money as long as you use it. I've taken spinning classes, and it is a pretty good work out, but I much prefer riding a real bike outside.

    They sure have a big advertising budget.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Almost all gym memberships are.

    It why they love New Year's Resolutions. Because those resolving always fail after 3-4 weeks and quit showing up--but paid for the whole year.
    Yeah, my wife and I continue to pay our "family" gym membership all year even though I typically don't go between June and October. For what we would save by dropping the membership for that time it's worth it to keep in the event I want to go on a rainy day or if she decides to take a morning class. In the fall-winter-spring we go a few times per week.

    I heard second-hand that Planet Fitness is a little bit different business model, even in the gym industry. They actually target people who they suspect won't go to the gym for very long or often - so in addition to getting income from members who don't show up, their equipment doesn't get worn out as frequently as other gyms'. Apparently they don't supply free weights which dissuades clients who are more dedicated (and harder on equipment) and allows them to run those adds suggesting there's no muscle heads at the gym - in turn attracting less fit, less dedicated members.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by ljvb View Post
    And we are all very thankful for that



    Porneton
    *Naughtybit*-erium

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    I don't know but this is exactly why I gave up nude indoor training
    Quote Originally Posted by Bremerradkurier View Post
    Peleton would need to spin it off to avoid sullying their corporate image, but nude streamed live Peleton-but-not-Peleton classes marketed to adults could be a gold mine.
    The reality.. if one was that way inclined, would be fine...ish for woman.. for guys, it would be very uncomfortable.. stuff flapping around whacking into the seat... I guess woman may have a bound chest to deal with, but at least when I cycle, my upper body is pretty stationary as opposed to my lower body...

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by dir-t View Post
    Yeah, my wife and I continue to pay our "family" gym membership all year even though I typically don't go between June and October. For what we would save by dropping the membership for that time it's worth it to keep in the event I want to go on a rainy day or if she decides to take a morning class. In the fall-winter-spring we go a few times per week.

    I heard second-hand that Planet Fitness is a little bit different business model, even in the gym industry. They actually target people who they suspect won't go to the gym for very long or often - so in addition to getting income from members who don't show up, their equipment doesn't get worn out as frequently as other gyms'. Apparently they don't supply free weights which dissuades clients who are more dedicated (and harder on equipment) and allows them to run those adds suggesting there's no muscle heads at the gym - in turn attracting less fit, less dedicated members.
    Planet Fitness advertising makes it very clear that are trying to attract non-hardcore customers. There are all kinds of placards around about "No Judgement Zone" and similar themes. They have an alarm that they sound off ("Lunk Alarm") if someone does a lot of grunting or drops a heavy weight. The PF I went to did have some free weights, squat cages, etc, but there are less muscle heads than you might see at other gyms. People that a super-ripped tend to want to go places to be seen and PF is not that place

  25. #25
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    I think we can take any and all valuations made in the past 2 years and coming year or so with a grain of salt. Tesla worth more than Toyota and GM? some cannibis startup Tilray valued at 20 BILLION already?? 's like 1998 all over again I think. Then we had a lost decade (actually lost 12 years) after that, folks.

    people might try the spin class scene. then do one ride outside in the fresh air and breeze and sensation of speed and down hill thrills and whoah, scrue the BO stinkhole ...
    Faith is pretending to know things you don't know

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