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  1. #1
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    Alabama Special Election polls - Moore vs. Jones

    Polls now show a statistical dead heat:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ones-6271.html
    “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” -- Aaron Levenstein

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  2. #2
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    It is Alabama. No way in hell a democrat can win there, IRL. Not unless demographics drastically change. If the GOP ticket was the zombie of Josef Stalin himself, he'd win easily.


    I'd love to be surprised. But don't expect it from Alabama.
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    It is Alabama. No way in hell a democrat can win there, IRL. Not unless demographics drastically change. If the GOP ticket was the zombie of Josef Stalin himself, he'd win easily.


    I'd love to be surprised. But don't expect it from Alabama.
    +1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    It is Alabama. No way in hell a democrat can win there, IRL. Not unless demographics drastically change. .....

    ..or if they re-enfranchised every black person who ever has had a felony conviction. Alabama makes a lot of things that would be a misdemeanor just about everywhere else a felony (grand theft is anything over $200...), AND they remove your voting rights for life as well! Also, unpaid court fees will disenfranchise you, too. I once saw a statistic somewhere (which I don't know if it's true or not...) that said fully 1/3 blacks were not allowed to vote in Alabama.

    I suspect that they will vote Moore into office, thereby confirming the image they have as a bunch of stupid, knuckle-dragging bigots that the rest of us think of them as being.
    Last edited by No Time Toulouse; 1 Week Ago at 02:56 PM.
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    I'm just shocked it's close.

    I expected peedo bible-thumper Moore to be up 10 points by now, as his rabid supporters 'doubled down' on him after the allegations came to light.
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    So what, the rest of America can just boycott Alabama if they feel so strongly about it. 2018 ad slogans already being printed, "Mitch McConnell stands side by side with pedophile Ray Moore. Say no Moore to Mitch vote Blue across the ticket!"
    Seriously Trump admitted to sexually abusing women on tape and they still voted the wanker in to represent their country on the world stage. What's a little fiddling with kids 40 yrs ago?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by SystemShock View Post
    I'm just shocked it's close. .
    Wouldn't count too much on that. Remember how accurate the polls were for Trump's win ....
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  8. #8
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    I wouldn't come to any conclusions yet. It's just surprising how Doug Jones has closed the gap on what was a 22 point lead back in Sept. And the gap was closing BEFORE the allegations on Moore.

    So will the polls continue to move away from Moore, or will this be a case of voters with short memories? The latter was true for Trump - they either bought the "locker room talk" excuse or the shock value faded as James Comey's announcement took front and center.

    This could be different. We're talking about underage sex as in statutory rape. Sure, there are those on the fringe who point to Biblical references. And there will be those who are turned off by this behavior, but look at the picture in strict Democrat vs. Republican terms. But the last time I checked, pedophilia was still largely frowned upon by the vast majority of the population - even those with very backwards opinions about women.

    Let's also not forget that Trump's win in the general election was less a vote for Trump as it was a vote against Hillary Clinton. It was a contest of who was the worse candidate. The backlash to the Trump presidency is already being seen in NJ, NYC and especially in VA. If you had told me a year ago that Bill deBlasio would be re-elected mayor of NYC, I would have told you you were crazy.

    Only time will tell.
    “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” -- Aaron Levenstein

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  9. #9
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    Oh goody! Moore is as frivolous a lawsuit threatening as Trump...The WaPo must be quivering in the boots. Not.
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  10. #10
    feh
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    37% of Alabama evangelicals are more likely to vote for Moore since he has been accused of being a child molester, while only 28% said the allegations made them less likely to vote for him.


    Electoral-vote.com


    Ah, yes. Evangelicals - they're such good people.
    Last edited by feh; 1 Week Ago at 08:30 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RL7836 View Post
    Wouldn't count too much on that. Remember how accurate the polls were for Trump's win ....
    They were actually quite accurate- the popular vote was within 2% of the poll aggregations.

    The reason pollsters got the overall call wrong is there wasn't much quality polling in the midwestern states that ended up deciding the election.

    I suspect the current polling out of Alabama isn't great, so it's hard to draw any definitive conclusions. I still expect Alabama to elect a child molester to the Senate just based on past behavior.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    They were actually quite accurate- the popular vote was within 2% of the poll aggregations.

    The reason pollsters got the overall call wrong is there wasn't much quality polling in the midwestern states that ended up deciding the election.
    Polls can forecast the popular vote pretty well....the problem is that the POTUS isn't elected by the People but by the States. And the State contests are almost all winner-take-all, and often the important contests are decided by narrow margins with the error range of polling.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Polls can forecast the popular vote pretty well....the problem is that the POTUS isn't elected by the People but by the States. And the State contests are almost all winner-take-all, and often the important contests are decided by narrow margins with the error range of polling.
    That's very true. The margins were quite slim in the states that decided things. However, I would say that many pundits and pollsters just assumed that the Midwest would go blue just based on past behavior- rather than adequate data.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    That's very true. The margins were quite slim in the states that decided things. However, I would say that many pundits and pollsters just assumed that the Midwest would go blue just based on past behavior- rather than adequate data.
    Pollsters, like the HRC camp, assumed the Blue Wall would hold...rather than crumble.

    Pollsters also assumed that a popular/electoral split was highly unlikely, simply as a matter of fact....rather than an event that is increasingly probable (blue voters getting increasingly concentrated in small population centers--and farmland getting depopulated and more red). During high-election season I emailed Silver to ask about it...in a column a week later he dismissed a popular/electoral split as simply being very very unlikely, so much so, as to not bother worrying about it.

    Surprise surprise.
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  15. #15
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    Polls: in hindsight, it's been easy to look back & say how accurate they were with his orangeness. Whether the issue is one of overall accuracy or small margins within key states, leading up to the election, most reasonable people would have concluded that the election was a runaway for Clinton. I wonder how many lazy Hillary-leaning folks stayed home because they thought it was a waste of time voting?

    Back on topic: I doubt there will be many Bama voters on either side staying home based on what the polls say.
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  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by RL7836 View Post
    Polls: in hindsight, it's been easy to look back & say how accurate they were with his orangeness. Whether the issue is one of overall accuracy or small margins within key states, leading up to the election, most reasonable people would have concluded that the election was a runaway for Clinton. I wonder how many lazy Hillary-leaning folks stayed home because they thought it was a waste of time voting?

    Back on topic: I doubt there will be many Bama voters on either side staying home based on what the polls say.
    As mentioned elsewhere, Alabama has lots of disenfranchised voters---due to "felony" being a bar set lower than anywhere else in the USA.

    I'll bet it will be a typical election 50% +/-5% of registered eligible voters won't show up. I suppose we could make a betting thread--with winner/margin-of-win/voter-turn-out come December. Might be fun.
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  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    During high-election season I emailed Silver to ask about it...in a column a week later he dismissed a popular/electoral split as simply being very very unlikely, so much so, as to not bother worrying about it.
    And that was the main problem. None of my Clinton supporting friends were "worrying about it". They were like "That crazy Trump will never get elected". And then there were the Trump voters who didn't like him, but couldn't stand Clinton.

    While it may be self-satisfying to say to these people "I told you so", it may be more productive to say "Want to help us fight?"
    “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” -- Aaron Levenstein

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    Quote Originally Posted by SystemShock View Post
    I'm just shocked it's close.

    I expected peedo bible-thumper Moore to be up 10 points by now, as his rabid supporters 'doubled down' on him after the allegations came to light.
    .
    Well, it's not like he was molesting little boys or anything, it was just little girls. And, they weren't even related!! No biggie in the bible belt apparently.

    The reactions have been horrifying.

  19. #19
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    Worth noting is that while Trump enjoyed a 2 to 1 margin in AL, look how the counties voted. There is a blue stripe (much of it deep blue) west to east through the Montgomery area. One thing is certain, the state is divided:

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama
    “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” -- Aaron Levenstein

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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lombard View Post
    Worth noting is that while Trump enjoyed a 2 to 1 margin in AL, look how the counties voted. There is a blue stripe (much of it deep blue) west to east through the Montgomery area. One thing is certain, the state is divided:

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama
    It is rather a funny split at first glance. Because most states split partisan line in step with population density. Alabama doesn't....Usually the more people in a county (AKA more urban/metropolitan)--the more it trends toward being blue. But not here.

    Compare the density outright:

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/uni...on-density#map

    Versus the density by race:

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/uni...percentage#map

    and Alabama White Population Percentage, 2013 by County


    Anyone else see the correlation that I see?
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  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    It is rather a funny split at first glance. Because most states split partisan line in step with population density. Alabama doesn't....Usually the more people in a county (AKA more urban/metropolitan)--the more it trends toward being blue. But not here.

    Compare the density outright:

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/uni...on-density#map

    Versus the density by race:

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/uni...percentage#map

    and Alabama White Population Percentage, 2013 by County


    Anyone else see the correlation that I see?
    Covered in detail here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-senate-race/
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  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    It is rather a funny split at first glance. Because most states split partisan line in step with population density. Alabama doesn't....Usually the more people in a county (AKA more urban/metropolitan)--the more it trends toward being blue. But not here.

    Compare the density outright:

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/uni...on-density#map

    Versus the density by race:

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/uni...percentage#map

    and Alabama White Population Percentage, 2013 by County


    Anyone else see the correlation that I see?
    Yep. It sure looks like party lines = racial lines. There is some of that in most states to an extent, but is exaggerated here.
    “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” -- Aaron Levenstein

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    "Education is what you get when you read the fine print. Experience is what you get when you don't. -- Pete Seeger



  23. #23
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    Hmm..McConnell is showing an odd amount of backbone saying Moore should bow out.

    Alex Petri's comedic take:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...=.1bbaf6be0fa9

    Quote Originally Posted by WaPo Compost Blog
    The new GOP motto is the sorority classic: “Right or wrong, do it strong.” Still, it makes me wonder: Is anything enough? Suppose it were to surface between now and the election that Moore was guilty of murder and cannibalism.


    Here is my best guess of the Republican response:



    McCain would instantly come forward to say that he disapproved of murderers and the man should step down. Everyone would ignore him. Someone would snipe that, as a former member of the armed forces, he had no standing for disapproving of murder.



    Mitch McConnell and the rest of the leadership would observe that, IF TRUE, it was certainly bad, but note that the victim of said murder had been oddly silent for the past 30 years and that they were reserving judgment until they could question him further.



    The Alabama GOP would announce that even these tepid denunciations were FAR TOO MUCH and they would not listen to McConnell if he told them to pour water on themselves because they were on fire. Furthermore, in the Bible, Cain murdered Abel, and no one had told Cain he could not hold elected office, which just showed that there was precedent in the Good Book for this sort of thing. Also, what is Christianity, if not the belief that you can devour someone’s body under the right circumstances? Some theologians would angrily object that this was not at all the message, but they would be immediately ignored.



    Breitbart would publish an exposé saying that this was not a regular murder; it was a nice murder that anyone would be honored to have happen to them, and that unlike killers who just tossed their victims into lakes in garbage bags, the judge had lovingly and respectfully buried his eight victims and planted a garden over them, and that the sautéed liver resulting from his act had been absolutely delicious. Also, it was all a lie. (Somehow it would maintain both of these things at once.)



    “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” Trump would say. “And if I could, why not Roy?”



    Fox News would air a long special linking Bill Clinton to Jeffrey Dahmer, for no ostensible reason.



    Roy Moore would be elected.
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  24. #24
    feh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Hmm..McConnell is showing an odd amount of backbone saying Moore should bow out.

    Alex Petri's comedic take:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...=.1bbaf6be0fa9
    I don't think it's about backbone. I think McConnell just doesn't want another wild card w/ an R by his name.
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  25. #25
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    Glad McConnell is stepping up, but I have to believe that it is pure political calculus that has lead him to condemn Moore. He cannot afford to loose an Alabama senate seat to the Democrats and hope to pass a tax bill - or really any bill for that matter. If he can get rid of Moore in favor of a generic Republican, there will be little question of victory.

    If his condemnation fails to get Moore out of the race, it could still paradoxically increase Moore's chances of victory by bolstering his bona fides as "anti-establishment." Even better, McConnell will have ammunition if Democrats try to link Moore to the GOP in general- he can claim the party officially disowned him, so Moore's not their problem (but McConnell certainly won't mind using Moore's vote to pass their favorite legislation).

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