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  1. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by le duke View Post
    I know it won't put a warm body in a Senate seat, but really, the fact that Doug Jones is polling slightly behind, even with, or slight ahead of Roy Moore is a miracle in it's own right.

    Even before the Roy Moore child molester allegations came out, they were running relatively closely. Hell, Richard Shelby won Alabama's other seat by 28% last year.

    Now, will the polling data actually be reflected in votes cast? I don't know. But, if so, that bodes well for Democrats nationally. Trump and Moore are dragging the Grand Ol' Pedophiles down.

    In single-winner-take-all representative government...polling behind makes you and your ideas/policies nothing more than an historical footnote on a Wikipedia entry.
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  2. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    In single-winner-take-all representative government...polling behind makes you and your ideas/policies nothing more than an historical footnote on a Wikipedia entry.
    Right now, the RCP average is a statistical dead heat. One poll shows Moore up, next poll shows Jones up, rinse, repeat. The only thing we can really conclude is that we won't know until Dec. 12.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ones-6271.html
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  3. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lombard View Post
    Right now, the RCP average is a statistical dead heat. One poll shows Moore up, next poll shows Jones up, rinse, repeat. The only thing we can really conclude is that we won't know until Dec. 12.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ones-6271.html
    If I had to make a prediction, barring any new big shoes to drop... Moore by 3 points.

    'Cuz... Alabama.

    Would LOVE to be proven wrong.

    Words that should never be said, but may well be: "Keep your 14 year-old daughters away from the United States Senator."

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  4. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by SystemShock View Post
    If I had to make a prediction, barring any new big shoes to drop... Moore by 3 points.

    'Cuz... Alabama.

    Words that should never be said, but will be: "Keep your 14 year-old daughters away from the United States Senator."

    .

    .
    I'm thinking we need an election eve betting thread. Winner, margin, and whether he'll be seated.

    In the style of Brexit, it would not be legally binding and mean absolutely nothing--other than to voluntarily get egg on each other's faces.
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  5. #255
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    I'm thinking we need an election eve betting thread. Winner, margin, and whether he'll be seated.

    In the style of Brexit, it would not be legally binding and mean absolutely nothing--other than to voluntarily get egg on each other's faces.
    He'll be seated " the voters of Alabama have spoken". They supported a confessed sexual predator into the white house, what's a little kiddie fiddling if her mother said it was okay. I think Alabama voted to limit the number of blacks that could vote once so they do have a crappy record of being contemptible. Sometimes voters are wrong despite their numbers. Shame the US no longer has a moral compass.

  6. #256
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwisimon View Post
    Shame the US no longer has a moral compass.
    Hey, the 'US' is not Alabama. And thank god for that.

    And more of us voted against the Big Orange Crapstain than voted for him. Three million more, in fact. The national popular vote actually wasn't all that close.

    But, the Electoral College is a strange, strange thing.

    .
    Monk: I want to go like my Dad did – peacefully, in his sleep, not screaming in terror like his passengers.

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  7. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by SystemShock View Post
    But, the Electoral College is a strange, strange thing.

    .
    good points, could the next wave election be run on a platform of overturning the electoral college? It is a most undemocratic ideal for a country that sings about how great it is at any gathering of over 100 ppl.

  8. #258
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    ... the result of a conspiracy involving the Washington Post, George Soros, the DNC, Mitch McConnell, mainstream Republicans, homosexuals, transgender people & criminals

    Welcome to bizzaro world.


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  9. #259
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwisimon View Post
    good points, could the next wave election be run on a platform of overturning the electoral college? It is a most undemocratic ideal for a country that sings about how great it is at any gathering of over 100 ppl.
    Nope. The Electoral College is in the Constitution, and changing it requires a super-majority of states to be on board.
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  10. #260
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Nope. The Electoral College is in the Constitution, and changing it requires a super-majority of states to be on board.
    wow they really screwed the pooch trying to be nice to a bunch of slavers. Something about giving a sucker a chance rings true perhaps. So a super majority is 2/3rds represented by the senate, or senate and congress?

  11. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwisimon View Post
    wow they really screwed the pooch trying to be nice to a bunch of slavers. Something about giving a sucker a chance rings true perhaps. So a super majority is 2/3rds represented by the senate, or senate and congress?
    There are a few paths...but both are unlikely:

    https://usconstitution.net/constam.html

    Getting rid of the E.C. is ridiculously hard...which is why in 200 years of people hating it (since Day ONE of the USA actually)...it has never happened...Indeed, the very people who created it were the first to see it was a dumb idea. Instead Congress and States have changed how the E.C. reps are delegated over a dozen times, and still hated the results each time.



    The irony being...45 states are not even contests in the College. Due to FPTP voting and representation (that I've complained mightily about), almost all states are automatic Red or automatic Blue. So what? Well, it means tactically speaking--those states and their citizens are irrelevant. Candidates can usually safely ignore those states rest assured that those states will go their way anyway without any actual policy favors granted. Which is why States like Iowa or Hawaii or Kansas only get any political attention during primaries and is utterly forgotten come the General.

    Actual real numbers? In the 2012 Election after-the-primaries, only 18 out of 50 states even got a single candidate visit, and none of the low-population density states...Romney and Obama spent 2/3 of their official campaign visits and campaign funds in spent in just 4 states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. AKA, anything called a "Swing State". What does this mean? The Electoral College does NOT make candidates more interested in small states, a common delusion among the pro-E.C. crowd.

    The E.C., tactically, focuses the candidates attention on only a few narrow actual-contests to the detriment of basically all Americans.
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  12. #262
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwisimon View Post
    wow they really screwed the pooch trying to be nice to a bunch of slavers. Something about giving a sucker a chance rings true perhaps. So a super majority is 2/3rds represented by the senate, or senate and congress?
    It goes further than that. For something to become an amendment, it not only has to get 2/3 of the U.S. House and Senate, but must get 3/4 of all the State legislatures. That is what killed the ERA Amendment back in the 1970s - it passed the U.S. House and Senate, but couldn't get enough states on board.

    And no Republican will ever vote to get rid of the Electoral College, because they know it only helps them.
    Last edited by Lombard; 1 Week Ago at 05:51 AM.
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  13. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lombard View Post
    It goes further than that. For something to become an amendment, it not only has to get 2/3 of the U.S. House and Senate, but must get 2/3 of all the State legislatures. That is what killed the ERA Amendment back in the 1970s.

    And no Republican will ever vote to get rid of the Electoral College, because they know it only helps them.
    Well...

    It yes and no. It "helps" them in that it makes it much easier for GOP candidates to win given demographics of land area. It doesn't help them at all, because GOP candidates don't give a rat's @$$ about those small states, the millisecond the primary results are declared. They don't campaign in them, they don't visit them, they don't spend money on them...and once elected they forget where Iowa even is, unless their shareholders in Canada want to build a pipeline.
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  14. #264
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lombard View Post

    And no Republican will ever vote to get rid of the Electoral College, because they know it only helps them.
    yes but the way Republican supporters aren't having sex and the Democratic supporters are it's only a generation or two and then it might just swing.

  15. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwisimon View Post
    yes but the way Republican supporters aren't having sex and the Democratic supporters are it's only a generation or two and then it might just swing.
    Demographics.

    There are red states. There are no blue states; only red states with large blue cities. So what? People who vote dem live in the cities, or move into the cities. Result? The democrats pack themselves into confined areas---leaving the House in Congress even more red-packed. Meanwhile the red-voting folks stay put.


    Also...funny thing about the Electoral College...

    It is mathematically possible for a candidate to lose the popular vote by 78% and still win POTUS outright via 51% EC with no parliamentary provisions or gags--by simply gaming the E.C. and its stupid FPTP system. That is right, a POTUS candidate can only net 22% of the popular vote and still win.
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  16. #266
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    It is mathematically possible for a candidate to lose the popular vote by 78% and still win POTUS outright via 51% [Electoral College] with no parliamentary provisions or gags--by simply gaming the E.C. and its stupid FPTP system.

    That is right, a POTUS candidate can only net 22% of the popular vote and still win.
    That is so remarkably unlikely that it may as well be considered impossible for all practical purposes.

    Even Trump's EC win while losing the popular vote by 2.1% was something that hadn't remotely been accomplished for 140 years, when Samuel Tilden lost the EC (by 1 vote!) to Rutherford B. Hayes, despite winning the popular vote by 3 percentage points (the most ever while losing in Presidential history, AFAIK).

    So, I wouldn't want to calculate the odds of winning the EC while losing the popular vote by a 78% to 22% margin, but the number must contain a great many zeroes.

    Of course, none of this means the EC is great... it isn't. But we are stuck with it, for reasons already mentioned in the thread.

    .
    Monk: I want to go like my Dad did – peacefully, in his sleep, not screaming in terror like his passengers.

    System: Fake news?? Trump's a Fake President, for God's sake.

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  17. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by SystemShock View Post
    That is so remarkably unlikely that it may as well be considered impossible for all practical purposes.

    Even Trump's EC win while losing the popular vote by 2.1% was something that hadn't remotely been accomplished for 140 years, when Samuel Tilden lost the EC (by 1 vote!) to Rutherford B. Hayes, despite winning the popular vote by 3 percentage points (the most ever while losing in Presidential history, AFAIK).

    So, I wouldn't want to calculate the odds of winning the EC while losing the popular vote by a 78% to 22% margin, but the number must contain a great many zeroes.

    Of course, none of this means the EC is great... it isn't. But we are stuck with it, for reasons already mentioned in the thread.

    .
    The fact that it is at all possible (without parliamentary games) shows how broken it is. All you need to do for the 78/21 popular split to succeed--is win all the low-value states by 50%+1 vote. That is how it works. And that has been the basis of the GOP election strategy for years, win the "rural" states and damn the metropolitan-dominated states. Again I point it out to show how ridiculous the EC is--not as a statement of likelihood.


    Look at it this way...from 1800s until 1996, the EC winner and the popular winner only broke rank once. Since Y2K it has happened twice. And odds are it is going to be frequent from here on. Trump will probably win 2020, the only real question is whether he scores a majority of the population.
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  18. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwisimon View Post
    yes but the way Republican supporters aren't having sex and the Democratic supporters are it's only a generation or two and then it might just swing.
    Who says they aren't having sex. They just aren't ADMITTING to having sex. There is a big difference.
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  19. #269
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    A Racist Flyer Might Cost Doug Jones the Election.................

    Interesting article about the ineptitude of the Democratic party. They're up against a piece of poo again, and again, they might lose. Maybe ads like this aren't the best idea.

    https://www.theroot.com/a-racist-fly...cau-1821065764

  20. #270
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Look at it this way...from 1800s until 1996, the EC winner and the popular winner only broke rank once.
    Technically, three times... 1824, 1876, and 1888.

    Though you can put an asterisk on 1824, since the popular vote winner (Andrew Jackson) did not receive a majority of the popular vote, four different candidates won electoral votes, and the whole thing got thrown to the House to decide, IIRC.

    There'd likely be rioting in the streets if we had an election like that today.


    Since Y2K it has happened twice. And odds are it is going to be frequent from here on.
    Could be. Nate Silver has written about how the GOP has an 'electoral college advantage' currently, though even with that, I would ascribe Hillary's loss to running a very poor campaign both messaging-wise and strategy-wise as well (i.e. ignoring the Rust Belt states in the closing weeks in favor of 'reaching' for places like Arizona and Georgia).

    Oh, and Russia. And Comey. But her and her own campaign's ineptitude opened the door towards making a loss even possible.


    Trump will probably win 2020, the only real question is whether he scores a majority of the population.
    Given Trump's consistent unpopularity – his approval ratings have pretty much settled in the high 30s– I can't really see him as a shoo-in. Though, yes, if the Dems run another stiff vs him in 2020, they could find a way to 'do just enough to lose' again, a la 2000 and 2016.

    I'm not sure Bernie is the solution, either. It's pretty damn hard to sell $21 trillion in tax increases over 10 years to moderates and independents, i.e. the exact ppl you need to win over in order to win.




    .
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    Last edited by SystemShock; 1 Week Ago at 12:33 PM.
    Monk: I want to go like my Dad did – peacefully, in his sleep, not screaming in terror like his passengers.

    System: Fake news?? Trump's a Fake President, for God's sake.

    Plat: I'd rather fellate a syphilitic goat than own a Cervelo.

    EJD: Modern-day conservatism isn't conservatism, it's reaction rooted in deep pessimism that isn't in keeping with the American character.

    Seam: Saw Bjork poop onstage back in the day. It blew my teenage mind.


  21. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcb View Post
    Interesting article about the ineptitude of the Democratic party. They're up against a piece of poo again, and again, they might lose. Maybe ads like this aren't the best idea.

    https://www.theroot.com/a-racist-fly...cau-1821065764
    I don't know that that flyer is racist per se, but it certainly is dumb and ham-handed.

    And the author of the article does make a great many good points. Though, as an African-American, if he truly thinks the Democratic party is 'trash', then he should imagine what life will be like if Trump and all the White Nationalists he panders to get to re-shape America fully to their liking.

    It is a tiny bit like complaining that the firefighter who carried you out of a burning building banged your head on the doorsill. Yes, technically you're right, and maybe he's even a clumsy idiot... but the alternative to him not being there would be a lot worse.

    At least until 'merica gets a truly viable third party... which, it does not seem able to do, either now or anytime soon.

    .
    Monk: I want to go like my Dad did – peacefully, in his sleep, not screaming in terror like his passengers.

    System: Fake news?? Trump's a Fake President, for God's sake.

    Plat: I'd rather fellate a syphilitic goat than own a Cervelo.

    EJD: Modern-day conservatism isn't conservatism, it's reaction rooted in deep pessimism that isn't in keeping with the American character.

    Seam: Saw Bjork poop onstage back in the day. It blew my teenage mind.


  22. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by SystemShock View Post
    That is so remarkably unlikely that it may as well be considered impossible for all practical purposes.

    Even Trump's EC win while losing the popular vote by 2.1% was something that hadn't remotely been accomplished for 140 years, when Samuel Tilden lost the EC (by 1 vote!) to Rutherford B. Hayes, despite winning the popular vote by 3 percentage points (the most ever while losing in Presidential history, AFAIK).

    So, I wouldn't want to calculate the odds of winning the EC while losing the popular vote by a 78% to 22% margin, but the number must contain a great many zeroes.

    Of course, none of this means the EC is great... it isn't. But we are stuck with it, for reasons already mentioned in the thread.

    .
    FYI the GOP has only won 1 popular for president since 1990 and that was in 2004.

    W Bush lost the popular vote in 2000.

  23. #273
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    Quote Originally Posted by timeless View Post
    FYI the GOP has only won 1 popular for president since 1990 and that was in 2004.

    W Bush lost the popular vote in 2000.
    I am aware.
    Monk: I want to go like my Dad did – peacefully, in his sleep, not screaming in terror like his passengers.

    System: Fake news?? Trump's a Fake President, for God's sake.

    Plat: I'd rather fellate a syphilitic goat than own a Cervelo.

    EJD: Modern-day conservatism isn't conservatism, it's reaction rooted in deep pessimism that isn't in keeping with the American character.

    Seam: Saw Bjork poop onstage back in the day. It blew my teenage mind.


  24. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by SystemShock View Post
    I don't know that that flyer is racist per se, but it certainly is dumb and ham-handed.

    And the author of the article does make a great many good points. Though, as an African-American, if he truly thinks the Democratic party is 'trash', then he should imagine what life will be like if Trump and all the White Nationalists he panders to get to re-shape America fully to their liking.

    It is a tiny bit like complaining that the firefighter who carried you out of a burning building banged your head on the doorsill. Yes, technically you're right, and maybe he's even a clumsy idiot... but the alternative to him not being there would be a lot worse.

    At least until 'merica gets a truly viable third party... which, it does not seem able to do, either now or anytime soon.

    .
    Eh, I didn't think he pandered to white nationalists at all. He simply points out that the Republican party does a better job of speaking about a variety of issues to potential swing voters than the Democrats do in Alabama.

    It's always harder to look in the mirror than it is to point fingers though so carry on.........

  25. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcb View Post
    Eh, I didn't think he pandered to white nationalists at all. He simply points out that the Republican party does a better job of speaking about a variety of issues to potential swing voters than the Democrats do in Alabama.

    It's always harder to look in the mirror than it is to point fingers though so carry on.........

    Sigh. Re-read what I said.

    I said TRUMP panders to White Nationalists, not the article author.

    .

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