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  1. #1
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    Keystone XL = Game Over for Climate?

    A good analysis at Real Climate on the important issue of oil/tar sands development. "Game Over" being 2C of warming and the desire for a stable climate.

    RealClimate: Keystone XL: Game over?

    "A good introduction to the work can be found in this National Research Council report on Climate Stabilization targets, of which I was a co-author. Here’s all you ever really need to know about CO2 emissions and climate:

    The peak warming is linearly proportional to the cumulative carbon emitted
    It doesn’t matter much how rapidly the carbon is emitted
    The warming you get when you stop emitting carbon is what you are stuck with for the next thousand years
    The climate recovers only slightly over the next ten thousand years
    At the mid-range of IPCC climate sensitivity, a trillion tonnes cumulative carbon gives you about 2C global mean warming above the pre-industrial temperature.

    This graph gives you an idea of what the Anthropocene climate looks like as a function of how much carbon we emit before giving up the fossil fuel habit, without even taking into account the possibility of carbon cycle feedbacks leading to a release of stored terrestrial carbon The graph is from the NRC report..."




    In summary:

    In order to hold global warming to 2 degrees C, cumulative carbon emissions need to be held to 1 trillion tons of carbon (1000 GtC).

    We have already emitted 500 GtC.
    Conventional oil proved reserves adds 139 GtC.
    Natural gas proved reserves adds 100 GtC.

    Then 261 GtC of potential emissions remain from all other fossil fuel sources to stop at 1000 GtC.

    Athabasca oil sands deposit has about 230 GtC in place. Estimates of how much is economically recoverable are between 10% to 70%. Energy is used to extract the oil adding 23% to 41% to the carbon emissions. This energy currently comes from natural gas (already counted above) but in the future it might come from coal, which has not been counted yet.

    There are 634 GtC of economically recoverable coal in the ground at 2005 prices and technology.


    "Jim Hansen has said that if the Athabasca Oil Sands are tapped, it’s “essentially game over” for any hope of achieving a stable climate. The same news article quotes Bill McKibben as saying that the pipeline represents “the fuse to biggest carbon bomb on the planet.”

    "So the pipeline itself is really just a skirmish in the battle to protect climate, and if the pipeline gets built despite Bill McKibben’s dedicated army of protesters, that does not mean in and of itself that it’s “game over” for holding warming to 2C. Further, if we do hit a trillion tonnes, it may be “game-over” for holding warming to 2C (apart from praying for low climate sensitivity), but it’s not “game-over” for avoiding the second trillion tonnes, which would bring the likely warming up to 4C. The fight over Keystone XL may be only a skirmish, but for those (like the fellow in this arresting photo ) who seek to limit global warming, it is an important one. It may be too late to halt existing oil sands projects, but the exploitation of this carbon pool has just barely begun. If the Keystone XL pipeline is built, it surely smooths the way for further expansions of the market for oil sands crude. Turning down XL, in contrast, draws a line in the oil sands, and affirms the principle that this carbon shall not pass into the atmosphere."


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    Last edited by Art853; 10-13-2012 at 09:51 AM.

  2. #2
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    Activists are battling the Keystone XL project in Texas. 21 people have been arrested.

    "Here, among the woods and farmland, what might be one of the last pitched battles over the Keystone XL oil pipeline has been unfolding for weeks now, since construction of the controversial project’s southern leg began in August.

    As bulldozers and diggers churn up a 50-foot-wide path for the pipeline — this portion will run from Cushing, Okla., to the Gulf Coast — a small group of environmental activists have taken to the towering trees in its way.

    And with the blessing of some landowners who live here, and whose property the pipeline will cross, the protesters have fashioned a web of tree houses, structures and pulleys in a last-ditch effort to keep the enormous project from rumbling forward.

    “Initially, a lot of the environmental movement on a national scale had kind of written this fight off,” said Ron Seifert, a spokesman for the Tar Sands Blockade, a group of environmental activists who have gathered near Winnsboro and contend that the oil sands crude that the pipeline will carry is especially toxic."

    "This year, after saying TransCanada must reroute the project around environmentally delicate areas in Nebraska, President Obama encouraged the company to submit a fresh application to the State Department.

    And he embraced the less controversial southern portion of Keystone XL, which received final permits from the Army Corps of Engineers this summer.

    A particularly crushing blow for opponents came in August, when a Lamar County judge ruled that TransCanada could use eminent domain to condemn private land to build the pipeline."

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/us...l?ref=business

  3. #3
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    thanks for continuing to post on this issue.

    I think most people have been preoccupied by the election lately (myself included).
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    How I wished during those sleepless hours that I belonged to a different nation, or better still, to none at all.....- W.G. Sebald
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  4. #4
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    I wonder how all those 'small govt. freedom loving' Texans feel about having their homes sold out from under them (eminent domain) to a foreign country
    one nation, under surveillance with liberty and justice for few

    still not figgering on biggering

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by atpjunkie View Post
    I wonder how all those 'small govt. freedom loving' Texans feel about having their homes sold out from under them (eminent domain) to a foreign country
    I would imagine they are pretty pissed... that's the only explanation I can come up with as to why they'd invite a bunch of dirty hippies on to their land.
    * posted by Creakybot 2013 all rights reserved.
    * not actually waterproof.

  6. #6
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    I still haven't figured out how this is a benefit when the oil won't even stay in North America.

  7. #7
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    Just a little unit nazi:

    tonnes /= (dose not equal) tons

    US tons = 2000 lb
    tonnes = 1000 kg, but tonnes is a misuse of the metric/ SI system and should not be used. Megagram, Mg, should be used instead.
    Last edited by Killroy; 10-15-2012 at 04:51 AM.

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  9. #9
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    but see

    Quote Originally Posted by Creakyknees View Post
    I would imagine they are pretty pissed... that's the only explanation I can come up with as to why they'd invite a bunch of dirty hippies on to their land.
    they become Darryl Hannah loving, protesting tree huggers as soon as it crosses their property

    funny how that seems to be the case every time
    one nation, under surveillance with liberty and justice for few

    still not figgering on biggering

  10. #10
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  11. #11
    Cowboy up
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    Global warming and the increasing heat and drought is going to effect all of Texas, not just the landowners that the Keystone XL pipeline is crossing. Property and home values will be impacted.

    Texas farmers and ranchers suffered over $5 billion in loses in 2011 due to heat and drought.

    Drought costs Texas farmers, ranchers record $5.2 billion - Houston Chronicle

    Southwest headed for permanent drought



    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?TX,S

  12. #12
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    Picking a singular event, such as the 2012 drought, is statistically insignificant.

    Remember the dust bowls of the 30's? They did not last now did they?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by atpjunkie View Post
    they become Darryl Hannah loving, protesting tree huggers as soon as it crosses their property

    funny how that seems to be the case every time
    I'd climb a tree with her.

  14. #14
    Cowboy up
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    Rising global temperatures as a result of global warming pollutants such as CO2 are increasing drought and heat waves.

    The Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, has conducted a global analysis of drought.

    [The] figure for moderate drought, currently at 25 per cent of the Earth’s surface, rising to 50 per cent by 2100, the figure for severe drought, currently at about 8 per cent, rising to 40 cent, and the figure for extreme drought, currently 3 per cent, rising to 30 per cent.

    "Extreme drought, in which agriculture is in effect impossible, will affect about a third of the planet..."

    The Century of Drought | ThinkProgress
    The century of drought - Environment - The Independent

  15. #15
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    Well, if ThinkProgress says it's true....

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue CheeseHead View Post
    Picking a singular event, such as the 2012 drought, is statistically insignificant.

    Remember the dust bowls of the 30's? They did not last now did they?
    You bring up a goo point.

    The dust bowl was the result of unsustainable raping natural resources coupled with a bad drought and economic time.

    Sound familiar. Today's consumption of oil is unsustainable and the return on investment of Keystone XL oil is horrible. Long term foreseeable are the better option. Keystone XL is a pipe to nowhere.

  17. #17
    Fecal indicator
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    [QUOTE=Hello Kitty;4143686][url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html]Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released..QUOTE]

    yeah, that article is thoroughly 'fact-checked'...for hack journalism anyway.

    check the photo caption that describes 'smoke from a power plant'...while it does show two stacks with emissions, the majority of the picture is of steam from cooling towers.
    eff all y'all...

  18. #18
    Ricardo Cabeza
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    Quote Originally Posted by atpjunkie View Post
    I wonder how all those 'small govt. freedom loving' Texans feel about having their homes sold out from under them (eminent domain) to a foreign country
    not too good, which is why they tend to fight back:

    Trans-Texas Corridor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Whenever the legislators endeavour to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience, and are left to the common refuge which God hath provided for all men against force and violence - John Locke

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  19. #19
    xxl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snakebit View Post
    I'd climb a tree with her.
    Ditto.

    And me being a gentleman, why, I'd insist she go first.

  20. #20
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    :Al Gore voice: Well, you see Glooooobal waarming is a result of the...excessssive use of a fossil fuels. If you will just offsssset the carbon burned with carbon credits everything will be ok. Just make the check out to Al Gore Carbon credit fund....god bless

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by russd32 View Post
    :Al Gore voice: Well, you see Glooooobal waarming is a result of the...excessssive use of a fossil fuels. If you will just offsssset the carbon burned with carbon credits everything will be ok. Just make the check out to Al Gore Carbon credit fund....god bless
    its really time to get over the Al Gore nonsense. The science is settled, it doesn't really matter if you liked the spokesperson from the 1990's. It's happening with or without your opinion...
    Not banned yet.

  22. #22
    Ricardo Cabeza
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    Quote Originally Posted by bahueh View Post
    The science is settled
    ah yes. and how many times have we heard that line of bullshit?

    spontaneous generation
    transmutation of species
    miasma theory of disease
    telegony
    vitalism
    phlogiston theory
    geocentric universe
    flat earth
    rain follows the plow
    catastrophism
    four bodily humours
    phrenology
    Piltdown man
    blank slate
    Clovis first
    Whenever the legislators endeavour to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience, and are left to the common refuge which God hath provided for all men against force and violence - John Locke

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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by bahueh View Post
    its really time to get over the Al Gore nonsense. The science is settled, it doesn't really matter if you liked the spokesperson from the 1990's. It's happening with or without your opinion...
    We rejected Al and his nonsense once so he stated a new make Al richer scheme and sold that boatload.

  24. #24
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    which is why

    Quote Originally Posted by Art853 View Post
    Global warming and the increasing heat and drought is going to effect all of Texas, not just the landowners that the Keystone XL pipeline is crossing. Property and home values will be impacted.

    Texas farmers and ranchers suffered over $5 billion in loses in 2011 due to heat and drought.

    Drought costs Texas farmers, ranchers record $5.2 billion - Houston Chronicle

    Southwest headed for permanent drought



    State Drought Monitor
    I say we should let Texas secede
    one nation, under surveillance with liberty and justice for few

    still not figgering on biggering

  25. #25
    Cowboy up
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    Quote Originally Posted by atpjunkie View Post
    I say we should let Texas secede
    I like Texas. We get our baseball championships from them.

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