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  1. #1
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    Remember the Solid Bump in the Polls...

    that Romney got immediately after the first debate?

    Sorry, Barry, no such bump for you. Gallup's first 7 day rolling average poll to include the day after debate 2 had Obama slipping 1 more point.

    The downward trend continues.

  2. #2
    RoadBikeReview Member
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    actually, the downward trend stopped according to Nate Silver.
    give it time. predictions might just come back to bite you.
    Not banned yet.

  3. #3
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    The Mittster

    just needs to have another good debate. Then we can sit back and count the votes. With any luck Barry will be sent packing back to Chicagoland and we can get down to the serious business of turning this country around. Worst case scenario is that if the Kenyan wins again we have another 4 years to endure - hell 4 years ain't nothing. The republicans in the House can pretty much keep him in line. I'll just be glad when all of the election crap is over.
    +1 for the NRA!

    Guns save lives.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by bahueh View Post
    predictions might just come back to bite you.
    Ain't that the truth!

    Obama 2008: "If you don't have any fresh ideas, you use stale tactics to scare the voters"

    "If you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters," he proclaimed, "If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from." -- Obama

  5. #5
    RoadBikeReview Member
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    Both camps look pretty disperate --- no wonder given the intellect of the American voter.
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by jarbiker View Post
    just needs to have another good debate. Then we can sit back and count the votes. With any luck Barry will be sent packing back to Chicagoland and we can get down to the serious business of turning this country around. Worst case scenario is that if the Kenyan wins again we have another 4 years to endure - hell 4 years ain't nothing. The republicans in the House can pretty much keep him in line. I'll just be glad when all of the election crap is over.
    and you don't think the Senate Democrats will turn Romney into an ineffective blob?
    Not banned yet.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue CheeseHead View Post

    Sorry, Barry, no such bump for you. Gallup's first 7 day rolling average poll to include the day after debate 2 had Obama slipping 1 more point.
    The way to measure trends in a 7 day rolling average is to compare 7 full days before an event to 7 full days after.

    A good way to look for trends it to wait 3-4 days before making a call. When about half the sample has turned over.

    Trying to read a trend from 1/7th of the effect of a debate, when it takes a couple days to settle in, is not very grounded, methodologically.
    .
    Stout beers under trees, please.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    Both camps look pretty disperate
    Obama has given up on independents and is now playing to his base with these petty attacks "binders full of women" is all they got...really??

    With 19 days to go and one more debate the trend is not Obama's friend.

    Romney's October surge heightens the drama in Wisconsin - JSOnline

    Review & Outlook: A President Without a Plan - WSJ.com

    Y'all can get all huffy call me names and go elitist but nevertheless the truth is out there and the American public realizes we can not have four more years of this incompetent empty suit.

    November 7th is gonna be a riot on here!

  9. #9
    waterproof*
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    If Obama came to me offering binders full of women, I'd listen to his offer.
    * posted by Creakybot 2013 all rights reserved.
    * not actually waterproof.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    Both camps look pretty disperate --- no wonder given the intellect of the American voter.
    Finally we agree on something. There is no way that 47% of a rational population would still favor a guy who has a four year record that makes Jimmy Carter look like a winner. Do we really have that many who continue to support a proven loser?

    With rational polling of a mostly intelligent population, BO would garner maybe 20% of the vote. It is, after all, possible to be both rational and a lazy ef-off simultaneously. Members of the culture of entitlement need politicians to give them a free lunch in order to survive. Nothing ignorant about their understanding of how to milk the system.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Creakyknees View Post
    If Obama came to me offering binders full of women, I'd listen to his offer.
    Damn straight, even if they were tree huggers.

  12. #12
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    Proof

    Quote Originally Posted by Hello Kitty View Post
    Obama has given up on independents and is now playing to his base with these petty attacks "binders full of women" is all they got...really??

    With 19 days to go and one more debate the trend is not Obama's friend.

    Romney's October surge heightens the drama in Wisconsin - JSOnline

    Review & Outlook: A President Without a Plan - WSJ.com

    Y'all can get all huffy call me names and go elitist but nevertheless the truth is out there and the American public realizes we can not have four more years of this incompetent empty suit.

    November 7th is gonna be a riot on here!
    "no wonder given the intellect of the American voter."
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwiftSolo View Post
    Finally we agree on something. There is no way that 47% of a rational population would still favor a guy who has a four year record that makes Jimmy Carter look like a winner. Do we really have that many who continue to support a proven loser?

    With rational polling of a mostly intelligent population, BO would garner maybe 20% of the vote. It is, after all, possible to be both rational and a lazy ef-off simultaneously. Members of the culture of entitlement need politicians to give them a free lunch in order to survive. Nothing ignorant about their understanding of how to milk the system.
    damn you're a broken record.
    why don't you just cut and paste yourself and get it over with...I mean why take the time writing the same crap over and over and over again?
    Not banned yet.

  14. #14
    What did you say? Huh?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snakebit View Post
    Damn straight, even if they were tree huggers.
    I think you meant "especially" rather than "even"...at least I thought your post contained c0d3.
    Man. You are all stuped.
    ~RUFUSPHOTO

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    The way to measure trends in a 7 day rolling average is to compare 7 full days before an event to 7 full days after.

    A good way to look for trends it to wait 3-4 days before making a call. When about half the sample has turned over.

    Trying to read a trend from 1/7th of the effect of a debate, when it takes a couple days to settle in, is not very grounded, methodologically.
    Technically today we are at 2/7ths. One would think that if Obama had gotten a bump we would have seen a similar change to what we saw when Romney got his bump.

    I will stand corrected in one sense, Obama did not drop, he remained at 45%, but Romney gained to 52%.

    Big Bird and Binders are not issues that will save Obama.

  16. #16
    gazing from the shadows
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue CheeseHead View Post
    Technically today we are at 2/7ths.
    I just looked at gallup. Data through the 17th. The debate was on the 16th. One day post debate sample.
    .
    Stout beers under trees, please.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue CheeseHead View Post
    One would think that if Obama had gotten a bump we would have seen a similar change to what we saw when Romney got his bump.
    On the comparable day after the first debate gallup moved one point in Obama's favor.

  18. #18
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    Don't you have to wait about 3-4 days to see any real effect of an event? That's been my understanding.

  19. #19
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    .
    .
    .

    I love the approach some posters have to information; "It's out there somewhere!"

    (as they're commenting on an internet forum--ie, plugged into the largest information source on the planet)

  20. #20
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    If four Americans get killed, it's not OPTIMAL

    So these deaths are a big joke to Obama!

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by bricoleur View Post
    .
    .
    .

    I love the approach some posters have to information; "It's out there somewhere!"

    (as they're commenting on an internet forum--ie, plugged into the largest information source on the planet)
    Ain't choo plugged in too?

  22. #22
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    Yawn. Obama just has to Ohio and one additional battleground state plus hold all of his leads elsewhere - electoral college VICTORY!

    Romney can take the remaining battleground states and it doesn't matter.

    Intrade has Obama at 68%. Silver backs that up.

    Keep wishing conservatives.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hello Kitty View Post
    ...so these deaths are a big joke to Obama!
    Nothing compared to the "47%" extended testimony by Mittens! About equal to the "binders full of women, " though. Romney meant "binders full of women's resumes." Obama was saying his RESPONSE to these killings was not optimal, not the relative importance of what happened! Why would anyone say, "If four Americans get killed, its not optimal?" Don't make no sense!

    Typical right wing press, or in this case tabloid journalism.
    Last edited by Fredrico; 10-18-2012 at 06:34 PM.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lazy Spinner View Post
    Yawn. Obama just has to Ohio and one additional battleground state plus hold all of his leads elsewhere - electoral college VICTORY!

    Romney can take the remaining battleground states and it doesn't matter.

    Intrade has Obama at 68%. Silver backs that up.

    Keep wishing conservatives.
    Electoral maps vary. RCP flipped in the last day or two to have Romney ahead.

  25. #25
    cheers
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    I just looked at gallup. Data through the 17th. The debate was on the 16th. One day post debate sample.
    Yup. And on top of that, Gallup apparently has a track record of being pretty far off, too:

    Gallup vs. the World - FiveThirtyEight
    .
    Monkhouse: I want to die like my Dad did, peacefully, in his sleep... not screaming in terror like his passengers.

    SystemShock: I kicked Lance in the nuts. Err, nut.

    Platypius:
    I'd rather fellate a syphilitic goat than own a Cervelo.

    AM999: Romney 320 Electoral votes, Obama 218. Colorado profs' [prediction] model, 100% accurate since 1980.

    Seamus: Saw Bjork poop onstage back in the day,it blew my teenage mind


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