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  1. #1
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    Top 10 Reasons Trump Will Be Re-Elected in 2020

    The top 10 reasons, not in any order of weight/importance:

    1---A complete inability of Democrats to put a candidate forward that is electable and/or develop any coherent response to what/who is the Donald

    2---The 2018 November elections don't pan out for the Democrats, and both the House and the Senate remain under Republican control

    3---Nationwide voter apathy will continue, where nearly half the voting age population once again doesn't vote

    4---The U.S. dollar begins to slide even more, but not to the point of igniting any sort of inflation and/or causing our worldwide U.S. gov't debt holders (think China, Japan, Germany, etc) to unload that massive trove of future-worthless junk. But the slide is deep enough that worldwide companies begin locating factories (even more than they currently have) across the Southwest, Midwest and West. Those companies suppliers also follow them. A regional western U.S. job boom takes hold, all unrelated to Silicon Valley. As this boom takes it baby steps, its importance is not failed to be seen by all

    5---More people (the voting block in the United States, all sides) than is cared to admit secretly likes it when Trump acts xenophobic and racist and sexist. That is, ultimately, who they/we are inside, just too afraid to look ourselves in the mirror and admit it. The trash talking, bullying and taunting of POTUS continues throughout 2018-2020, a behavior much like what is exhibited here in this "Politics" section of the RBR forum. The behavior and wiki-fed inability to understand the difference between information, knowledge and meaning, will cement the reasons why compromise is not again soon on the horizon in the United States

    6---Trump's pick of Mike Pompeo actually begins to bear fruit as the State Department starts acting with more clarity & focus (and even morale) than it has over the past two decades, and foreign nations have a better idea of how the administration will react in any situation

    7---Melania leaves the Donald, despite his continual whining about how his sins of the past do not reflect the man of today, and voter sympathy comes into play. Related to Melania leaving, Trump in late 2019---with the approval of his fan base--- starts dating his true love, Karen McDougal, a woman who turns out to be a surprisingly well-liked and well-spoken Net/TV/cable person & America's uneducated throng (which is vast majority) is enamored

    8---Wall Street, sensing another opportunity to keep the greed, raping and pillaging continuing, keeps the stock markets in the mid-20,000s, thereby making Americans think they are actually wealthier (through company-sponsored 401Ks) than they actually are

    9---Trump, having made most of the U.S. media his "personal b!tches", sees a big drop in negative coverage. Thus, he begins appearing on other cable & news channels besides the Fox in the lair. Even on CNN

    10---Everything to do with Mueller's probe, no matter how salient & true, proving the unscrupulous, unprincipled, illegal, complete lying nature of the man who is currently POTUS, ends up doing nothing (in the eyes of voters) other than burnishing the image that the Donald can withstand anything & survive. This development will cause many irreparable mental harm. Then, after the 2020 re-election of the Donald, voters across the whole spectrum, loathing themselves immensely, will begin engaging in copious amounts of self-flagellation (like what exists in this "Political" forum on RBR). Concomitantly, the ancient tradition of Seppuku/Harakiri explodes across the United States of America.



    I figure if all the above is put to digital paper here, then we all know it CANNOT possibly come true.

    I feel unburdened now, lol



    [Edit: Swap Stormy for Karen? Hmmmmm.......not sure what to do there]
    Last edited by BelgianHammer; 05-06-2018 at 11:44 PM.

  2. #2
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    That idiot Reagan won twice, so did Curious George. Trump probably will as well.

    The thing to remember about the Dow Jones that evidently no one knows, and no one on financial networks who knows wants to admit....it doesn't account for inflation, so Wall Street can do or say nothing and the number will continue to go up. For example in 1918 the DJIA was about 100--today it is 25,000ish--a 250x gain right? WOW!...... Not so fast...because the DJIA does not account for inflation. Using 1918 constant dollars the DJIA today is about 1,300. Still a 13x increase--but not even on the same planet of appearances.
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  3. #3
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    But you are ignoring the fact that the DJIA does not account for dividends. The stocks in the index pay out about 2% annually. Factor that in over 100 years and you have an additional 7X increase. Combine that with the 13x increase and you get about a 90x overall gain.

    https://finance.zacks.com/dow-jones-...ends-4893.html

    Just another thing "that evidently no one knows". ;)
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlanE View Post
    But you are ignoring the fact that the DJIA does not account for dividends. The stocks in the index pay out about 2% annually. Factor that in over 100 years and you have an additional 7X increase. Combine that with the 13x increase and you get about a 90x overall gain.

    https://finance.zacks.com/dow-jones-...ends-4893.html

    Just another thing "that evidently no one knows". ;)
    Which only further proves my point about how useless the DJIA is as a monolithic economic indicator. TR when started (they only started tracking it in 1993) was only 120% of the DJIA, today it is 200% of DJIA....and thanks to Trump's tax cuts and paying out more dividends it is going to be even more skewed.
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  5. #5
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    When you are making up stories about the future, throw in some zombies or aliens next time.
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  6. #6
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    Nos 1 and 5 are all you need. No. 3 is related to 1. You also left out foreign interference.

    The thing to remember is that voters will eschew their own economic interest in the name of stigginit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Which only further proves my point about how useless the DJIA is as a monolithic economic indicator. TR when started (they only started tracking it in 1993) was only 120% of the DJIA, today it is 200% of DJIA....and thanks to Trump's tax cuts and paying out more dividends it is going to be even more skewed.

    This is and always has been true. Problem being, 99.99% of the public who tries to save & possibly invest for their retirement will never understand this. If you study and break Wall Street down, it is nothing more than what cryptocurrencies so clearly show today: it's not a "weighing" machine, it is a "voting" one.

    Regarding dividends, though, AlanE has a major point. It took me nearly a decade back in the 80s to get myself to understand the power of dividends, along with capital growth (no matter how ephemeral) and, well, what Wall Street has pushed as 'capital growth" since the early 1990s. But dividends? Yes, they did and changed the picture...especially if you kept buying a wide range of the biggies (even the crapper-of-the-moment GE) who paid attention to not only enriching themselves through stock grants, but also keeping the dividends somewhat alive.

    Dang, I remember back in the early to late 70s when banks paid us 8-12% on any sort of deposit. The the massive "voting" machine of money, once Reagan got in there, changed everything and we've been off to the races ever since. The canary in the coal mine today, though, is what we are witnessing with cryptocurrencies. They'll be no power in the universe that can help us when it is finally decided that all that U.S. debt held around the world can never possibly be repaid...and maybe not even 50c of it on the dollar.

    Until then the Grand Party we've been throwing since the early 80s goes on.

    Sure hope our POTUS doesn't get an idea that the U.S. Treasury should look into the viability of any sort of cryptocurrency, because that will hasten, and brutalize, what is going to happen to the U.S. Imagine, cryptocurrencies used to buy stocks. Lol, it wold become the ultimate self-reinforcing circle that will definitely signal it's time to vacate. Wall Street will not stop until they see if this can happen. It's in their (indeed in our all) nature.

    Had any brains I'd start a cryptocurrency called "Trum", based on you know who. It would probably, in a few years, begin to rival & compete with ETH and BTC.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    When you are making up stories about the future, throw in some zombies or aliens next time.
    Qui,

    Wait?! That orange=haired persona in the WH isn't a zombie and/or alien? No way, say it ain't true.

    The Donald is da alien-zombified bomb (literally)

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    When you are making up stories about the future, throw in some zombies or aliens next time.
    Hate to pick on this specific post, since I usually enjoy QQQ's material, but this is exactly why Trump won in the first place: Nobody actually took him seriously. Republicans are already single-issue voters, so Dems need to do the same if they want to win.
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by BelgianHammer View Post
    This is and always has been true. Problem being, 99.99% of the public who tries to save & possibly invest for their retirement will never understand this. If you study and break Wall Street down, it is nothing more than what cryptocurrencies so clearly show today: it's not a "weighing" machine, it is a "voting" one.

    Regarding dividends, though, AlanE has a major point. It took me nearly a decade back in the 80s to get myself to understand the power of dividends, along with capital growth (no matter how ephemeral) and, well, what Wall Street has pushed as 'capital growth" since the early 1990s. But dividends? Yes, they did and changed the picture...especially if you kept buying a wide range of the biggies (even the crapper-of-the-moment GE) who paid attention to not only enriching themselves through stock grants, but also keeping the dividends somewhat alive.

    Dang, I remember back in the early to late 70s when banks paid us 8-12% on any sort of deposit. The the massive "voting" machine of money, once Reagan got in there, changed everything and we've been off to the races ever since. The canary in the coal mine today, though, is what we are witnessing with cryptocurrencies. They'll be no power in the universe that can help us when it is finally decided that all that U.S. debt held around the world can never possibly be repaid...and maybe not even 50c of it on the dollar.

    Until then the Grand Party we've been throwing since the early 80s goes on.

    Sure hope our POTUS doesn't get an idea that the U.S. Treasury should look into the viability of any sort of cryptocurrency, because that will hasten, and brutalize, what is going to happen to the U.S. Imagine, cryptocurrencies used to buy stocks. Lol, it wold become the ultimate self-reinforcing circle that will definitely signal it's time to vacate. Wall Street will not stop until they see if this can happen. It's in their (indeed in our all) nature.

    Had any brains I'd start a cryptocurrency called "Trum", based on you know who. It would probably, in a few years, begin to rival & compete with ETH and BTC.

    That has probably been happening for a long while. In fact...computationally speaking, BTC in particular the main guns still left mining are those with server farms, which basically means "people" whose name ends with "inc."....the computational difficulty is so high and the yield so low that it is only worth it if you have server farms now for many cryptocurrencies.....and for the cryptocurrencies that isn't the case for--they're not viable, just pump-and-dump get-rich-quick schemes.

    It was before you started posting here in PO, but for several months RoadBikeReview in 2017 was compromised by some enterprising coder who inserted BTC mining scripts into RBRs webpage and was using unknowing and unwitting RBR poster's computers to do mining.
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  11. #11
    tlg
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    Quote Originally Posted by BelgianHammer View Post
    2---The 2018 November elections don't pan out for the Democrats, and both the House and the Senate remain under Republican control
    Actually, I think that'd be worse for Trump's chance of re-election. If Republicans remain in control after midterms, and this episode of White House Apprentice continues for two more long agonizing years, Trump won't even run for re-election.

    Trump's best chance is for Democrats to gain control, then spend the next two years doing nothing but bicker with him. Then Trump get's to play the victim, which is does so well.
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by old_fuji View Post
    Hate to pick on this specific post, since I usually enjoy QQQ's material, but this is exactly why Trump won in the first place: Nobody actually took him seriously.
    What I don't take seriously is when people make up future events as causes to predict other future events. More speculation is likely to take the predictions further from the actual events, not closer to them.

    Why might Trump be reelected? How many presidents have lost when running for a second term? Not many, and there are good reasons for that. Reasons that don't require speculating on what happens over the next couple of years. There are many advantages from being POTUS when running for POTUS.

    2018 will shape how things play out going towards 2020. It will shape who tries to run, it will shape the landscape they run in, it will shape the events of those 2 years depending on who controls congress. Any predictions about 2020 before we have even an idea of what goes down in November is just blowing smoke, and so not worth much serious consideration at all.
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by BelgianHammer View Post
    The top 10 reasons, not in any order of weight/importance:

    1---A complete inability of Democrats to put a candidate forward that is electable and/or develop any coherent response to what/who is the Donald

    Even more reasons for the DNC to hire Frank Luntz.

    The Democrats are terrible are messaging to 60% of the adult American population, i.e., those without a higher education degree, who in MHO seem to reaction more to simply words like, abortion, guns, taxes. Hillary, then to non-emotional logic.

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/educati...ial-challenges
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BelgianHammer View Post
    Qui,

    Wait?! That orange=haired persona in the WH isn't a zombie and/or alien? No way, say it ain't true.

    The Donald is da alien-zombified bomb (literally)
    Top 10 Reasons Trump Will Be Re-Elected in 2020-trump-alien-roswell-dym0pk3x4ae2lxo.jpg

    Your list can be summed up as: We dumb, dumb as hell.
    Just because you won't listen to reason does not mean I have to listen to idiocy.

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  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by BelgianHammer View Post
    The top 10 reasons, not in any order of weight/importance:

    1---A complete inability of Democrats to put a candidate forward that is electable and/or develop any coherent response to what/who is the Donald
    I think the main risk for the Democrats is that they will put forward an uninspiring and undefined candidate. There is a tendency for the out of power party to put forward candidates that are "safe" but uninspired. Romney in 2012 and Kerry in 2004 were prime examples of this tendency. Such candidates tend to only be defined by what they aren't (the incumbent) rather than what they are. That's a poor recipe to for getting your base out and getting the attention of swing voters who might be convinced to defect from the incumbent.

    As a more moderate type, my concern is that when they do find a candidate that inspires people, it's going to be a populist Democrat rather than another Obama type. Back when the McCain v Obama matchup was finalized, I was happy that no-matter what happened we'd have a good president (although McCain's pick of Palin made me question that assessment). With Clinton v Trump, it was acceptable vs. ghastly. I'm afraid my choices will be degrading to bad v. ghastly the next go-around.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    I think the main risk for the Democrats is that they will put forward an uninspiring and undefined candidate. There is a tendency for the out of power party to put forward candidates that are "safe" but uninspired. Romney in 2012 and Kerry in 2004 were prime examples of this tendency. Such candidates tend to only be defined by what they aren't (the incumbent) rather than what they are. That's a poor recipe to for getting your base out and getting the attention of swing voters who might be convinced to defect from the incumbent.

    As a more moderate type, my concern is that when they do find a candidate that inspires people, it's going to be a populist Democrat rather than another Obama type. Back when the McCain v Obama matchup was finalized, I was happy that no-matter what happened we'd have a good president (although McCain's pick of Palin made me question that assessment). With Clinton v Trump, it was acceptable vs. ghastly. I'm afraid my choices will be degrading to bad v. ghastly the next go-around.
    I wonder, as 2019/2020 rolls around, who actually can withstand Trump's withering persona/attacks/etc and still be able to stand above him in the mosh-pit that is American politics? Trump is a lot of things, but he's been spooky-good at controlling the stage. What he's done to mass media I would have bet major $$$ years ago could never happen in America & American politics. Of course he didn't do it all by himself. Trump needed a base with the mindset to accept his shtick, but still, the man has put virtual hammerlock on all media. It is scary to watch how outfits like NYT and WPO have morphed over the past 16-18 months.

    Who out there can stand with Trump, on a stage, and appeal to all voters in such a way that Trump becomes like Jimmy Carter, when Ronald Reagan look him & the American public in the eye and famously said: "There you go again....

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    I think the main risk for the Democrats is that they will put forward an uninspiring and undefined candidate.

    With Clinton v Trump, it was acceptable vs. ghastly
    Well Neal you where not alone in your past election assessment. Watch the "MAGIC" of Frank Luntz to dumb-down the message so EVERYONE gets it.



    I understand some well-educated and astute individuals dislike Frank Luntz, but its not about liking ... it about WINNING. Most Americans are not well-educated and based whom they will vote for on emotions ... not logic.

    Its about WINNING!
    Last edited by troutmd; 05-07-2018 at 07:52 AM.
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  18. #18
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    #11. They finally investigate the Obama administration with people who are unbiased and expose how corrupt the democrats really are.
    If you don't follow the liberal flock, you are called a troll.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terrasmak View Post
    #11. They finally investigate the Obama administration with people who are unbiased and expose how corrupt the democrats really are.
    Oh yes, Obama really was history's greatest monster.

    Such insight, much keen.
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by BelgianHammer View Post
    The top 10 reasons, not in any order of weight/importance:

    1---A complete inability of Democrats to put a candidate forward that is electable and/or develop any coherent response to what/who is the Donald

    2---The 2018 November elections don't pan out for the Democrats, and both the House and the Senate remain under Republican control

    3---Nationwide voter apathy will continue, where nearly half the voting age population once again doesn't vote

    4---The U.S. dollar begins to slide even more, but not to the point of igniting any sort of inflation and/or causing our worldwide U.S. gov't debt holders (think China, Japan, Germany, etc) to unload that massive trove of future-worthless junk. But the slide is deep enough that worldwide companies begin locating factories (even more than they currently have) across the Southwest, Midwest and West. Those companies suppliers also follow them. A regional western U.S. job boom takes hold, all unrelated to Silicon Valley. As this boom takes it baby steps, its importance is not failed to be seen by all

    5---More people (the voting block in the United States, all sides) than is cared to admit secretly likes it when Trump acts xenophobic and racist and sexist. That is, ultimately, who they/we are inside, just too afraid to look ourselves in the mirror and admit it. The trash talking, bullying and taunting of POTUS continues throughout 2018-2020, a behavior much like what is exhibited here in this "Politics" section of the RBR forum. The behavior and wiki-fed inability to understand the difference between information, knowledge and meaning, will cement the reasons why compromise is not again soon on the horizon in the United States

    6---Trump's pick of Mike Pompeo actually begins to bear fruit as the State Department starts acting with more clarity & focus (and even morale) than it has over the past two decades, and foreign nations have a better idea of how the administration will react in any situation

    7---Melania leaves the Donald, despite his continual whining about how his sins of the past do not reflect the man of today, and voter sympathy comes into play. Related to Melania leaving, Trump in late 2019---with the approval of his fan base--- starts dating his true love, Karen McDougal, a woman who turns out to be a surprisingly well-liked and well-spoken Net/TV/cable person & America's uneducated throng (which is vast majority) is enamored

    8---Wall Street, sensing another opportunity to keep the greed, raping and pillaging continuing, keeps the stock markets in the mid-20,000s, thereby making Americans think they are actually wealthier (through company-sponsored 401Ks) than they actually are

    9---Trump, having made most of the U.S. media his "personal b!tches", sees a big drop in negative coverage. Thus, he begins appearing on other cable & news channels besides the Fox in the lair. Even on CNN

    10---Everything to do with Mueller's probe, no matter how salient & true, proving the unscrupulous, unprincipled, illegal, complete lying nature of the man who is currently POTUS, ends up doing nothing (in the eyes of voters) other than burnishing the image that the Donald can withstand anything & survive. This development will cause many irreparable mental harm. Then, after the 2020 re-election of the Donald, voters across the whole spectrum, loathing themselves immensely, will begin engaging in copious amounts of self-flagellation (like what exists in this "Political" forum on RBR). Concomitantly, the ancient tradition of Seppuku/Harakiri explodes across the United States of America.



    I figure if all the above is put to digital paper here, then we all know it CANNOT possibly come true.

    I feel unburdened now, lol



    [Edit: Swap Stormy for Karen? Hmmmmm.......not sure what to do there]
    Sure, why not? Trillions of possible futures, this possibly being one of them. Although since all possible futures have percentage likelihood of being true, I give this one a .0003 chance of actually occurring.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by thatsmybush View Post
    Oh yes, Obama really was history's greatest monster.

    Such insight, much keen.
    Like I said --- many voter decide on their emotions, not logic.
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    Well Neal you where not alone in your past election assessment. Watch the "MAGIC" of Frank Luntz to dumb-down the message so EVERYONE gets it.


    Its about WINNING!
    Frankly, that's my biggest concern. By capitulating to the Trump wing, the Republicans seem to have decided that WINNING is more important than good governance or policy. I fear the Democrats will soon trod the same path. The problem with dumbing down the messaging is that after doing it long enough, you no longer have smart policy dumbed down so the masses can understand it. You just have dumb policy.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    Frankly, that's my biggest concern. By capitulating to the Trump wing, the Republicans seem to have decided that WINNING is more important than good governance or policy. I fear the Democrats will soon trod the same path. The problem with dumbing down the messaging is that after doing it long enough, you no longer have smart policy dumbed down so the masses can understand it. You just have dumb policy.
    The GOP long ago capitulated it's principles ... Reagan destroyed the party with:

    *** budget-busting spending,

    *** trickledown lies,

    ***deregulating that ultimately cause the 2008 meltdown while destroying both-sides-of-the-story journalism (ending the Fairness Doctrine) and,

    *** paper-tiger Middle East yammering that emboldened the Bin Laden's of the world (Beruit - we don't negotiate with terrorists, Iran-Contragate, etc.).

    The highbrow elitism from the liberal left and its mind-numbing stupidity of abandoning 60% of the voters is what elected Trump. If you want more of this, which I suspect is not the case, then keep supporting the status quo.

    As I have written here recently I feel strongly the Democrats have a better product to sell --- and unfortunately they can't sell it because of their flaccid messaging/marketing tendencies.
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  24. #24
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    Here's my concern: Like has happened after past large tax cuts, the economy always 'improves' for a year or 2, until the long-term effects take hold and cause a recession. Huge deficits take a while to cause damage, and the average American voter is too stupid to understand that.
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  25. #25
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    The Democratic candidate will win in 2020. The main reason Trump kinda' won was that the DNC underestimated him and HRC didn't campaign in the right places leading up to the election. They won't make that mistake again. As long as the D candidate is at least OK she/he will win.

    Best case scenario is that Trump figures out that his life was actually better before he was the Pres and declines to run again. I know that's not going to happen but it'd be nice.
    Last edited by dcb; 05-07-2018 at 05:11 PM.

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