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  1. #1
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    Paris-Roubaix Predictions

    4/6/12 EDIT:Startlist is here.

    So, last week we saw arguably saw Cancellara impact the way the race ended even after he left the course. That shattered collarbone and early bow will most assuredly factor into the team strategies this week.

    While my children will be hunting eggs a mythical rabbit has hidden around the house, i will be trying to watch Boonen battle the rest of the peloton. Cancellara had troubles with being a marked rider in the past, but Boonen has a secret weapon: Chavanel. I am not saying Chavanel will win, but if Boonen is marked and can't get free, I suspect they will put Chavanel out there. Boonen would miss the hat trick, and his fourth Cobble, but it IS a team sport.

    Pippo has come under heavy criticism for the way he rode, or didn't ride, the final few kilometers once it was a race of three. I am not sure he will survive the number of sectors here, and P-R is a race of attrition.

    Speaking of surviving sectors, will Thor be a factor? A few years back he almost had a win in his back jersey pocket when he joined the Hincapie Over the Bar Cobble Scar Club. and he has been off form most of the season. Of course there is another BMC rider who has shown he might have the mustard...

    We also signs of life from an off-form Gilbert. Will he be able to put it together?

    Once I get that start list, I will post more. But let's hear what y'all think! Who will rise from the ashes this Easter Sunday and kiss the cobble?
    Last edited by weltyed; 04-06-2012 at 06:12 AM.
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  2. #2
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    Gilbert will not be at the start of Paris-Roubaix. He is training for the Ardennes classics instead.

  3. #3
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    Pretty sure Taylor Phinney has replaced Gilbert. Would be nice to see TP poke his face at the pointy end once or twice.

  4. #4
    warrrrrrrgh!!!
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    Quick step sure is awesome right now...
    I hate you all

    j/k lol kthxbye!

  5. #5
    the fist
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    Boonen still looks good. It is my personal hope Thor will come correct for BMC.

    I havent seen the start list but Flecha didnt look horrible in Flanders.

    If the rains come, it will be whomever can stay at the front of the race.
    FlexiSexual

  6. #6
    the fist
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnHenry View Post
    Boonen still looks good. It is my personal hope Thor will come correct for BMC.

    I havent seen the start list but Flecha didnt look horrible in Flanders.

    If the rains come, it will be whomever can stay at the front of the race.
    Found the provisional start list:


    My longshots Devolder or Rojas
    FlexiSexual

  7. #7
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    Peter Sagan is looking very strong, I would have maybe picked him but he's only on the provisional start list. Boonen, of course, can have an off day like at Flanders and still win, plus he's got the experience. Pozzato was in amazing form too, and says his time has come. How about an outsider, maybe Iglinsky for Astana? very strong lately.

  8. #8
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    I don't know how much help Benenati will be but I will go out on a limb and say Pozzato

  9. #9
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    I'll go with Thor Hushovd but but my long-shot sentimental favorite would be Hincapie.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rokh On View Post
    I don't know how much help Benenati will be but I will go out on a limb and say Pozzato
    difficult to bet against Boonen, but I think Sagan win could be very exciting.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnHenry View Post
    Found the provisional start list:


    My longshots Devolder or Rojas
    Devolder hasn't done squat since he was backing Boonen. I had hopes for him but I think he's a quality support rider who can get it done if his captain is marked.
    Formerly Gripped. Now new and improved.

  12. #12
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    Picking boonen is too obvious.....i'm going with pozzato.

  13. #13
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    Boonen

  14. #14
    The Dropped 1
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    Hard to bet against Boonen. So much going right for him right now. With rain and being marked might be tough. Not sure Sagan has learned enough this season to take it unless it's a bunch sprint and he can get around Boonen, Flecha, etc.

    I'll be going for Boonen, but it could be a random guy left from a breakaway again. Always exciting.

  15. #15
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    I'll go with Sagan again. Hope he's starting it.
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  16. #16
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    Ballan looked the strongest last week but has no sprint. He's my pick to solo in velodrome.

  17. #17
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    Boonen. He's got the legs and experience plus a good team to back him up. He's the man to beat but there are other sprinters who fancy they can beat him in the velodrome. Chavanel is strong too and might benefit from a marked Boonen like Devolder did in '08 and '09 Flanders.

    BMC has got to be smarting about the (non) success of their dynamic duo. Thor has been there before and has a strong team. They have extra motivation and Ballan is no slouch either.

    Garmin also wants a win. Haussler hasn't lived up to his resurgence talk. Farrar has ridden the race respectably in the past. They have 2011 winner Vansummeren. Don't count them out -- though I expect Farrar rather than any of the others.

    I think this is Sagan's first P-R? He's a non-factor.

    Let's not forget that Rast was 4th last year and has Bennati along for the ride. Don't count him out. Even without Cancellara they are pretty dangerous.

    And lastly, there is Sky. They are bringing Sutton, Boasson Hagen, and Flecha. That is a stacked team right there.

    Plus others with a chance since anything can happen in a wet P-R. My pick is Boonen.
    Formerly Gripped. Now new and improved.

  18. #18
    LA CHEVRE
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    Logic says Boonen but Pippo should be good too, he's not as good a sprinter but he seemed stronger in De Ronde... I'm going with Pippo!

    I'd like Thor to be up there but I doubt he'll podium, Ballan will probably be the top rider for BMC again.

    Vansummeren was near the front in De Ronde until he botched that corner... but he wont be gifted the win this year, maybe top 5, best Garmin rider followed by Sep. Farrar in Roubaix? I don't think he has what it takes.

    I'm a big fan of Sagan, and I think he has the form, the power, the speed, but winning Paris-Roubaix the first time he races it? Top 10.

    DAN GEROUS

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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Gerous View Post
    Logic says Boonen but Pippo should be good too, he's not as good a sprinter but he seemed stronger in De Ronde... I'm going with Pippo!
    Forgot about Pippo. Dang. What was I thinking. Not sure if he makes it in a nasty race. If there are early splits, I predict he gets isolated in a hurry. He's still a big threat and won't be marked like Boonen.
    Formerly Gripped. Now new and improved.

  20. #20
    LA CHEVRE
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    Quote Originally Posted by wtfbbq View Post
    Forgot about Pippo. Dang. What was I thinking. Not sure if he makes it in a nasty race. If there are early splits, I predict he gets isolated in a hurry. He's still a big threat and won't be marked like Boonen.
    Well, Pippo can stick to Boonen's wheel like no others, I doubt he will be caught behind in a split.

    DAN GEROUS

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  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Gerous View Post
    Well, Pippo can stick to Boonen's wheel like no others, I doubt he will be caught behind in a split.
    I meant left with no help early. Though that might not matter so much since it is often a race of attrition and a little luck. Stay at the front, don't get left behind in the splits, don't have a mechanical or flat at the wrong time.

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  22. #22
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    I don't care who wins, I just want lots of mud for a change.

  23. #23
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    There Will Be Mud

    Quote Originally Posted by Retro Grouch View Post
    I don't care who wins, I just want lots of mud for a change.


    My pick is Boonen but I totally hope there will be mud.

  24. #24
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    i dont think pippo can beat boonen at p-r. the ronde had those cobbled climbs. they had boonen on the ropes on that last lil climb. i still believe if that climb had been 10 more meters boonen would have been cooked. but p-r doesnt have the same cobbled climbs. they have long, grinding sectors of cobbles through dust or mud. i dont see pippo winning a flat out race over those roads.

    now that i said that, he is sure to win. you heard it here, folks.
    I don't normally "do people." - Dr. Roebuck

  25. #25
    the fist
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    I might upgrade Flecha from longshot, if the weather goes straight to hell.
    FlexiSexual

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