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Tour de France 2015

5K views 53 replies 28 participants last post by  RRRoubaix 
#1 ·
#2 ·
Contador wins on guts alone.
Nibali second by a whisker.
Quintana third (blown up by the cobbles.)
Fragile Froome and his fragile mental capacity will end up fourth (if he stays in the race at all and doesn't break something on the cobbles.)
Pinot 5th, reaffirming he has the grit to be a GC guy for the Tour.
Barguil 6th (yes, Warren movin on up.)
TJ 7th.
Bardet 8th after he misses a major move or two.
Talansky 9th (he's not that good, he gets lucky here and there this year.)
Valverde 10th.
 
#3 · (Edited)
Some of that I can agree with and some I can't. To say Talansky is "not that good" is a bit of a stretch to me. He beat Contador for Du Dauphine last year, has a number of quality wins and podiums on his palmares and has been top 10 at the TdF, but I do think it's very fair to say that he hasn't done anything to prove that he can finish higher than 10th at the TdF yet. My pre race podium and guesses go someting like this:

1st- Contador: He looks so good and so strong this year, but we will find out in week two or three whether that Giro win took too much out of him.

2nd- Nairo Quintana: He finished 2nd on a similar course in 2013 and he already beat some of the other big boys in March.

3rd- Froome: The du Dauphine final stage was big for him and his psyche. He will have a really strong team that knows how to win this thing and he's not afraid to attack anyone, including the top two. If they slip and he is healthy, he will pounce.

Other contenders:

The Champ- Nibali will be in play, but I just don't see him riding away from my top three this year if they can stay upright and out of harm's way. He will have his moments and make his attacks as he has a strong engine, but I think he is the odd man out in this head to head battle royale.

The French: Pinot and Bardet should excite French fans this year and be a threat for stages, the young rider jersey, and/or the overall.

The Americans- Tejay and Talansky both could be primed for top 10 finishes, but I am not sure they can do much more than that. If we could combine them into one racer, we might have a great grand tour racer.

The oldies but goodies: I never count out Valverde, Hesjedal, and Rodriguez. They are great fighters and savvy attackers. They all have looked good at various points in the season and could surprise if given the opportunity.

The entertainers and stage hunters: One of my favorites, Kwiatkowski will show well in the World Champ's kit, Katusha will win stages with their depth as will AG2R, and Movistar.

My long shot pick and the team I would love to see do well: I would love to see anyone from MTN Qhubeka win stages or take a jersey. Louis Meintjes is probably their best hope, but Daniel Teklehaimanot has shown that he can surprise us from time to time and Steve Cummings is a beast, particularly given his age.
 
#4 ·
As far as the green jersey goes, the pressure will be on my man Cav to show that he can beat the likes of a finally more on form Sagan, Kittel, a coming into his own Degenkolb, Kristoff, Greipel, who looks like he is ready today, Bouhanni and the always dangerous Michael Matthews. Sprints are so hectic in the TdF and many of these guys have been so up and down this season that i truly can't call this one. My hope is that Cav or the Giant boys pull off the most wins and take home the green jersey.
 
#13 ·
I'm not sure why you're thinking Cav has a shot at the green jersey.... IMO, calling the green jersey the Sprinter's jersey is unfair because the true sprinters don't really care about it. In order to win the green jersey, you have to be in position to get points at the mid stage sprints and the true sprinters (Cav, Kittel, Greipel) don't really seem to care about them all. They'd rather focus on save their energy for the stage winning sprints. The green jersey is won by guys like Sagan or maybe Degenkolb or even Matthews... guys that have some firepower, but also have enough climbing ability to get over some of the hills and be in position to win points at the mid stage sprints...
 
#6 ·
Green jersey pick: Kristoff.
White: Pinot
Polka Dot: Probably someone like Arredondo or another absolutely pure climber.
 
#7 ·
Hesjedal worked too hard at the Giro, can't see him being in the mix in the top 10, but can see him being Talansky's lieutenant and going for a stage win.

My bet is Quintana, then Contador and only because I'm thinking Quintana is going to be fresher. Froome in third, Nibali in fourth.
 
#8 ·
I agree with this. Quintana just seems to have no issue in the mountains. Berty is going to still have the Giro in those legs. Froome is a big dude. There are serious climbs this year, and the one stage that should have been OK for him just got a lot harder today. With the road being closed from Galiber to Alp d'Huez, it is being re-routed. I heard speculation it will go up Glandon instead of Galibier. Having ridden both in 2012, I can tell you that a pure climber is going to like that stage a lot more now. Glandon is a real beast of a climb. While Galibier is steep up that side as well, the descent down the backside and the roll to d'Huez is mostly downhill. The new routing wont give that 30 mile coast to the bottom of Alpe d'Huez. It comes right at the end of the tour, and could seriously put a hurt on Froome and Contador.
 
#11 ·
Forget Quintana. "The best climber since Marco Pantani" doesn't have the guts to attack. See Route du Sud. He's comfortable surrounded by team mates. The favourites are certainly Contador and the praying mantis. With some luck both crash out and meet again at the Vuelta, the most entertaining tour each year. No idea why Berti with nine Grand Tours under his belt still does the TdF to himself, it's not made for him. Insipid flat stages; the biscuit takes the one with a max elevation of 6 metres, gentle climbs and too few of them, cobbles, no mountain time trial. Don't rule out Nibali. He has the chance to pull a substantial advantage on the cobbles, and the characteristic mountain stages of the TdF, up the gently inclined slopes and down the steep ones play in his favour. I wish they'd climb Alpe d'Huez once from the other side, but there are no parking lots for a million spectators and so it's never going to happen.
 
#19 ·
here are my picks.

1.Contador
2.Quintana
3.Van Guarderen

I think Froome will crash out at some point.... and i think that Nibali's form will be found out. He'll lose time in the first 2 weeks but start to come back and get a top 10.
 
#21 ·
I should point out that my earlier post in response to rob's about Froome on the cobbles was facetious...I was really pointing out that the cobbles are no more likely to do him in than anyone else, seeing as they haven't done him in before. Granted, Nibali may make time on the others on the cobbles, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because the others crash on them.
 
#31 ·
Nibali won last year by default. He was just the best of the rest.
I think it will be with Croome and AC.
Not sure if Quintana is ready but he and Nibali will make for some interesting mountain stages!

Sagan for the green though he will need some help from the pure sprinters to take points from a motivated Cav.

Pinot for white.

No idea for polka dot. It seems like that is about being in the right places at the right times the last few TDF's.

I am just hoping the tour is not decided on crashes or illness. I want to see the best teams put their guys in a position to win and watch them battle man on man. LA changed the tour forever by building teams to win. I don't think one man's heroics will win a tour again with a weak team.
If someone can than my hat is off to them as long as they piss and sample clean.
 
#38 ·
Nibali won last year by default. He was just the best of the rest.
I think it will be with Croome and AC.
Not sure if Quintana is ready but he and Nibali will make for some interesting mountain stages!
.
Nibali won last year because he was the best, period. On the stages that were his rival's undoing (cobblestones), he was beating classics specialists (Cancellara). The way he decimated the remaining rivals in the mountains showed that nobody would have been able to contain him, though it's fair to consider how easily he would've been able to ride in this manner with SKY and Saxo riding for a leader.

To win the TdF, one has to be among the "rest". The race always has attrition. It'll be interesting to see who comes out of the 1st week in position to challenge.
 
#35 · (Edited)
Cav's goal is to win stages. He has been talking about beating Merckx's record of stage wins for five or six years. Consistently high placings in a hilly Tour will take too much energy from him. Better to save energy for sprint finishes he can win.

A green jersey means nothing to him compared to winning a stage and crossing the line with a victory salute. If Cav wins the green jersey not many non-cyclists will care. If he wins the sprint on the Champs Elysees it will be on the front page of most papers in Europe and every paper in the UK.

For GC? Froome, Contador, Quintana. Froome is rested, on form, confident, and has a superb team, probably the best team overall. Contador might be tired but he is such a cool poker player you can never tell. He is also the closest anyone has come to Merckx or Hinault in mental toughness. Quintana is fresh and has a good team. He will have much more confidence than in 2013.

Nibbler and the Frenchies were lucky the two real contenders crashed out last year. SaxoTinkoff had no real plan B, and Sky blew themselves up trying to support Little Ricky so everyone else was doubly lucky.
 
#36 · (Edited)
Cav's goal is to win stages. He has been talking about beating Merckx's record of stage wins for five or six years. Consistently high placings in a hilly Tour will take too much energy from him. Better to save energy for sprint finishes he can win.

A green jersey means nothing to him compared to winning a stage and crossing the line with a victory salute.

For GC? Froome, Contador, Quintana. Froome is rested, on form, confident, and has a superb team, probably the best team overall. Contador might be tired but he is such a cool poker player you can never tell. He is also the closest anyone has come to Merckx or Hinault in mental toughness. Quintana is fresh and has a good team. He will have much more confidence than in 2013.

Nibbler and the Frenchies were lucky the two real contenders crashed out last year. SaxoTinkoff had no real plan B, and Sky blew themselves up trying to support Little Ricky so everyone else was doubly lucky.
He has actually made it clear that winning another green jersey (2011) is a major goal this year. That is because the changes to the points rules make it a real possibility to do both for the first time in years. You get major bonuses for wins on flat stages. They are calling it the anti-Sagan rule.

Mark Cavendish eyes Peter Sagan's Green Jersey in the Tour de France | Other Sport | Sport | Daily Express
 
#41 ·
I see Froome losing time to the others during the first week. He's just not a strong guy on the flats and can't handle a bike like the others. He also looks too lean already and I suspect he'll suffer a bonk at least one day in the mountains.

I see Nibali gaining time on the cobbled stage and coming out ahead of the GC favorites before the big mountain stages arrive. This will favor him as I don't see him arriving in top form until week 2 of the TdF.

Quintana is my pick for the win. He's prepared well by riding some of the cobbled classics this spring and he's just back from living at altitude in Colombia. He's smart and very mature for such a young rider.

Contador is a great champion but I just think by week 3 the fatigue will be too much against a fresher Quintana.
 
#42 ·
I see Froome losing time to the others during the first week. He's just not a strong guy on the flats and can't handle a bike like the others. He also looks too lean already and I suspect he'll suffer a bonk at least one day in the mountains.

...
No problem, Porte will be there to bring him an illegal gel or two.
 
#43 ·
How deep in the climbing bench for Movistar and Astana? I really haven't been keeping up as well on cycling news sites this year to know. Nibbles seem to have a good team last year, but given the lack of competition, that's not a very useful indicator. I wonder if Spanish pride will work out for part of the race with Movistar and TS working together (especially in the Pyrenees).
 
#44 ·
I'm picking AC. Nibali won't hold in the climbs. Quintana is dangerous but will be broken by other climbers. Froome maybe if Porte is able to marshall him up the hills. Everybody says Quintana is the best climber but if I remember Froome spanked him when he won his tour. Also when Quintana won the Giro he played possum till that one climb where there was controversy. AC is the better at strategy during races and will be keen on Quintanas tactics. Should be real exciting if we see a four man dual up the mountains. Get the DVR fired up. Ohhh yea!!!
 
#51 ·
I'm hoping for Contador to take the win but he might be too tired from his Giro efforts.

I think this is a good Tour for Quintana because of the dearth of TT miles. For the same reason, it's a bad Tour for Froome.

I think the podium will be Contador, Nibbles and Quintana. Not necessarily in that order.
 
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