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  1. #76
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    You guys think that eating whatever is funny, wait one year. They'll be no cattle in the fields, they will be slayed to eat.
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  2. #77
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    I just want to leave a few thoughts...

    1. There isnít a value in drawing comparisons to flu. Yes, flu is bad and it kills lots of people. So does every unnamed virus. They kill young people too. If you have never hung out with ER nurses, I encourage it at some point after this.
    2. This virus is novel. We donít have any history of exposure, so we have no acquired immunodefenses. So, thatís bad. Thatís why old people are so vulnerable. Typically older people that still have some life in them also have a huge library of exposures.
    3. This virus most resembles SARS. It is (somewhat) less lethal but spreads much more efficiently. But it most resembles SARS. You should be afraid of that. Your Doctor is.
    4. The most widely used intervention against this will be hope. Let that sink in.
    5. Economic impact canít be judged without adding in the impact of of a few million funerals. If we stop quarantine this will accelerate this dramatically.
    6. We have absolutely no clue what we are dealing with. We arenít testing. This is the biggest public health failure in history.

    So, on the upside....

    1. Droplet precautions has held up under further research on Covid19. Thats good. Itís why we are still posting on a cycling forum.
    2. Surface communicability is coming into focus.
    3. Cluster transmission is consistent with both of the above and is holding. Sadly, Iím in a cluster. We will see.
    4. Masks protect people from your sneezes. They do nothing to protect you from the virus. I know, I live with this every single day. Gloves? Stop.
    5. This virus is spread by hand contact. Thatís that. Unless someone sneezes in your face. Droplet precautions work. PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR HANDS!!

    if you have questions, donít hesitate. Accuracy matters. I will do my best. I am not an ID doc, immunologist or epidemiologist. I do get daily briefings as a front line healthcare worker.
    Last edited by PBL450; 5 Days Ago at 03:36 PM.
    To date, philosophers have merely interpreted the world in various ways. The point however is to change it.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBL450 View Post
    I just want to leave a few thoughts...

    1. There isnít a value in drawing comparisons to flu. Yes, flu is bad and it kills lots of people. So does every unnamed virus. They kill young people too. If you have never hung out with ER nurses, I encourage it at some point after this.
    2. This virus is novel. We donít have any history of exposure, so we have no acquired immunodefenses. So, thatís bad. Thatís why old people are so vulnerable. Typically older people that still have some life in them also have a huge library of exposures.
    3. This virus most resembles SARS. It is (somewhat) less lethal but spreads much more efficiently. But it most resembles SARS. You should be afraid of that. You Doctor is.
    4. The most widely used intervention against this will be hope. Let that sink in.
    5. Economic impact canít be judged without adding in the impact of of a few million funerals. If we stop quarantine this will accelerate this dramatically.
    6. We have absolutely no clue what we are dealing with. We arenít testing. This is the biggest public health failure in history.

    So, on the upside....

    1. Droplet precautions has held up under further research on Covid19. Thats good. Itís why we are still posting on a cycling forum.
    2. Surface communicability is coming into focus.
    3. Cluster transmission is consistent with both of the above and is holding. Sadly, Iím in a cluster. We will see.
    4. Masks protect people from your sneezes. They do nothing to protect you from the virus. I know, I live with this every single day. Gloves? Stop.
    5. This virus is spread by hand contact. Thatís that. Unless someone sneezes in your face. Droplet precautions work. PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR HANDS!!

    if you have questions, donít hesitate. Accuracy matters. I will do my best. I am not an ID doc, immunologist or epidemiologist. I do get daily briefings as a front line healthcare worker.
    Like SARS, COVID-19 origins are found in Chinas Wet Markets, and if these wet markets are allowed to continue, it's just a matter of time before we see this sort of issue arise again.

    Where's the outrage?
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  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by duriel View Post
    You guys think that eating whatever is funny, wait one year. They'll be no cattle in the fields, they will be slayed to eat.
    Ain't nothin' funny about wet markets, especially when they look to be the root problem that caused this out break.
    Too old to ride plastic

  5. #80
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    While we as Americans have very little influence on whether wet markets in China stay open, we should have a great deal of influence on whether our government has prepared to handle a pandemic such as this. Your vote counts, make sure to choose well.
    Life is short... enjoy the ride.

  6. #81
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    I have no idea what a wet market is, so ah ... sorry?
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  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by duriel View Post
    I have no idea what a wet market is, so ah ... sorry?
    Wet market is essentially the predecessor to today's supermarket where perishable goods such as meats and produces are sold.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    I'm not necessarily advocating opening up everything right now. However you can't really compare Italy to the US. Italy has a much older population demographic than the US and has a medical system that atrophy'd under their austerity measures. They don't have much in the way of big business to help respond with help creating medical capability.
    Can't compare Italy to the US

    The U.S. trajectory is exceeding all other countries. So much for your old age and medical system theory.


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  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Can't compare Italy to the US

    The U.S. trajectory is exceeding all other countries. So much for your old age and medical system theory.


    I dont see what the trajectory has to due with mortality rate.

    Some other data more related to mortality

    Population over 70: Italy 17.2%; US 10.9%
    Critical care beds per 100.000 people: Italy 12.5; US 34.7; China 2.3

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    I dont see what the trajectory has to due with mortality rate.

    Some other data more related to mortality

    Population over 70: Italy 17.2%; US 10.9%
    Critical care beds per 100.000 people: Italy 12.5; US 34.7; China 2.3
    Seems not many people do get the connection because I keep hearing about morality rate compared to the flu as if mortality rate is a good measure of how bad something could be. Mortality rate is a small piece of how bad something is and I don't know why so many people are so blind to that.

    Trajectory, rate of contagion or whatever you want to call it is a very important measure.

    What trajectory has to do with mortality rate is that both need to be looked at to tell a story.


    What is worse? 100 people get something with a 50% mortality rate or 1,000,000 get something with a 1% mortality rate.

    Hint: 50% mortality rate of 100 is 50 and 1% of a million is 10,000. Not to mention hospitals being flooded with a million vs 100.

    Obviously I pulled the number out of my butt for a hypothetical but I think it's pretty clear mortality rate along means jack squat so I don't know why people keep talking about it alone.

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Can't compare Italy to the US

    The U.S. trajectory is exceeding all other countries. So much for your old age and medical system theory.


    You just showed a perfect example of the general population making a false narrative using data without appropriate context! Tell me about the sampling plan for each of those curves? What's the criteria for testing? Is China sharing all their data?
    What's the mortality rate and recovery rate? Have you run any kind of statistical analysis to be able to compare the data and what confidence about that comparison? You can't because you don't have enough information to do anything other than make some pretty graphs. Come back with a more complete analysis if you want to make a convincing case about something.
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  12. #87
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    Guys, trump just held a small press conference in his office - he showed an updated map... I mean comparison chart:

    Last edited by OldZaskar; 5 Days Ago at 04:43 AM.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    You just showed a perfect example of the general population making a false narrative using data without appropriate context!
    False narrative? Like your claim you can't compare Italy to the U.S.?
    I didn't see your statistical analysis of the data. Just your made up claims about age and medical systems.

    If you got a problem with the data... take it up with Johns Hopkins.
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  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    I dont see what the trajectory has to due with mortality rate.
    The U.S. death trajectory is exceeding all other countries too. We need to stop acting like F'ing morons.

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  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Strongbow View Post
    Seems not many people do get the connection because I keep hearing about morality rate compared to the flu as if mortality rate is a good measure of how bad something could be. Mortality rate is a small piece of how bad something is and I don't know why so many people are so blind to that.

    Trajectory, rate of contagion or whatever you want to call it is a very important measure.

    What trajectory has to do with mortality rate is that both need to be looked at to tell a story.


    What is worse? 100 people get something with a 50% mortality rate or 1,000,000 get something with a 1% mortality rate.

    Hint: 50% mortality rate of 100 is 50 and 1% of a million is 10,000. Not to mention hospitals being flooded with a million vs 100.

    Obviously I pulled the number out of my butt for a hypothetical but I think it's pretty clear mortality rate along means jack squat so I don't know why people keep talking about it alone.
    I think we agree that controlling the trajectory is important to avoid overwhelming the medical system. I dont think anyone has disputed that. But knowing the true mortality rate is important to how we deal with this long term. Unless there is an effective treatment or a vaccine, most of us will get this thing and knowing whether it is .5% of us will die or 2% of us will die makes a big difference in how we move forward. With so many asymptomatic people running around, its very possible that the real mortality rate is much lower than early data from China and Italy shows

    My oldest daughter is is quarantine right now (she lives in CO) They did not have a test to give her but are assuming she has it. She actually hopes she does because sh e wants to get in over now

  16. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by duriel View Post
    I have no idea what a wet market is, so ah ... sorry?



    here ya go
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  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    False narrative? Like your claim you can't compare Italy to the U.S.?
    I didn't see your statistical analysis of the data. Just your made up claims about age and medical systems.

    If you got a problem with the data... take it up with Johns Hopkins.
    You obviously don't know how to interpret data - take a statistics class or 2 and come back with comment after posting your grades from those classes. I don't have any problem with the data, just the implied interpretation you make from it. Maybe start your comment by telling us what conclusion you draw from the graphs and why. And then answer the questions I asked you vs just ignoring them because you can't. You really are showing a great case here, but it's not the one you intend I think....
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  18. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBL450 View Post
    I just want to leave a few thoughts...

    1. There isnít a value in drawing comparisons to flu. Yes, flu is bad and it kills lots of people. So does every unnamed virus. They kill young people too. If you have never hung out with ER nurses, I encourage it at some point after this.
    2. This virus is novel. We donít have any history of exposure, so we have no acquired immunodefenses. So, thatís bad. Thatís why old people are so vulnerable. Typically older people that still have some life in them also have a huge library of exposures.
    3. This virus most resembles SARS. It is (somewhat) less lethal but spreads much more efficiently. But it most resembles SARS. You should be afraid of that. You Doctor is.
    4. The most widely used intervention against this will be hope. Let that sink in.
    5. Economic impact canít be judged without adding in the impact of of a few million funerals. If we stop quarantine this will accelerate this dramatically.
    6. We have absolutely no clue what we are dealing with. We arenít testing. This is the biggest public health failure in history.

    So, on the upside....

    1. Droplet precautions has held up under further research on Covid19. Thats good. Itís why we are still posting on a cycling forum.
    2. Surface communicability is coming into focus.
    3. Cluster transmission is consistent with both of the above and is holding. Sadly, Iím in a cluster. We will see.
    4. Masks protect people from your sneezes. They do nothing to protect you from the virus. I know, I live with this every single day. Gloves? Stop.
    5. This virus is spread by hand contact. Thatís that. Unless someone sneezes in your face. Droplet precautions work. PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR HANDS!!

    if you have questions, donít hesitate. Accuracy matters. I will do my best. I am not an ID doc, immunologist or epidemiologist. I do get daily briefings as a front line healthcare worker.
    Thanks, glad to see someone with an actual clue weigh in.

    I hope you decide to just cut/paste that everywhere it's a fitting response. Armchair quarterbacks can then decide if they believe you, and many won't, or if what you said will magically become moot on Easter.

  19. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    You obviously don't know how to interpret data - take a statistics class or 2 and come back with comment after posting your grades from those classes.
    Meh. Still waiting for your statistical analysis of the data. Not your made up claims about age and medical systems. Why do you keep ignoring? Been asking. STILL waiting.
    Throw in your grades too. lmao



    I don't have any problem with the data, just the implied interpretation you make from it
    What interpretation did I make?
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  20. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    The U.S. death trajectory is exceeding all other countries too. We need to stop acting like F'ing morons.

    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Meh. Still waiting for your statistical analysis of the data. Not your made up claims about age and medical systems. Why do you keep ignoring? Been asking. STILL waiting.
    Throw in your grades too. lmao



    What interpretation did I make?
    Grades - 2 Semesters of Statistics in college prior to graduating with a Bachelor of Science in Chem E. I'm not going to find my report cards from 35 years ago. Add on additional training and hands on use in my professional career in multiple roles.

    Here's what DaveG posted 2 hours ago (which I guess you didn't read) for statistics which is basically what I saw
    "
    Population over 70: Italy 17.2%; US 10.9%
    Critical care beds per 100.000 people: Italy 12.5; US 34.7; China 2.3"

    If you really want to understand what is going on do some more research, google is an easy tool - but use it open with open mind and not just searching for information to support your argument

    At this point, it's painfully obvious you just want to argue and don't want to try to understand or participate in a meaningful dialog - No point in having any more conversation about it with you from what I can see so I'll move on and happy to discuss the situation with others as it unfolds. Tell yourself you won the argument so you can enjoy your day!
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  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    At this point, it's painfully obvious you just want to argue and don't want to try to understand or participate in a meaningful dialog - No point in having any more conversation about it with you from what I can see so I'll move on and happy to discuss the situation with others as it unfolds.
    I understand perfectly....Been asking you to back up your claim that Italy's death rate is related to their older population and medical system. You obfuscate.


    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    I'm not necessarily advocating opening up everything right now. However you can't really compare Italy to the US. Italy has a much older population demographic than the US and has a medical system that atrophy'd under their austerity measures.
    No point in having any more conversation about it
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  22. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    What is going on in Italy...that is us in a week or so. They too cannot test anyone, and people have been ignoring quarantines....and guess what. Complete medical collapse/freefall. But at least your stocks will not crash?
    Actually, based on the various markers that are out there, we are almost exactly 3 weeks behind Italy. If our experiences match theirs, we will be around 3,000 deaths per day around April 12 (otherwise known as Easter Sunday, the day Trump says he wants everyone back to work, back in church, back in bars and restaurants, etc.)

  23. #98
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    Sobering Thought...

    Quote Originally Posted by velodog View Post
    Like SARS, COVID-19 origins are found in Chinas Wet Markets, and if these wet markets are allowed to continue, it's just a matter of time before we see this sort of issue arise again.

    Where's the outrage?
    Yes, this is so right and so important! This is bad. But if it was SARS and it aerosolized efficiently weíd have half a billion dead already. Is that just a matter of time? Iíve been an advocate of mandatory quarantine for certain international travel for decades. China had an outbreak of pneumonic plague a few years ago.


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    To date, philosophers have merely interpreted the world in various ways. The point however is to change it.

  24. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBL450 View Post
    I just want to leave a few thoughts...

    1. There isnít a value in drawing comparisons to flu. Yes, flu is bad and it kills lots of people. So does every unnamed virus. They kill young people too. If you have never hung out with ER nurses, I encourage it at some point after this.
    2. This virus is novel. We donít have any history of exposure, so we have no acquired immunodefenses. So, thatís bad. Thatís why old people are so vulnerable. Typically older people that still have some life in them also have a huge library of exposures.
    3. This virus most resembles SARS. It is (somewhat) less lethal but spreads much more efficiently. But it most resembles SARS. You should be afraid of that. You Doctor is.
    4. The most widely used intervention against this will be hope. Let that sink in.
    5. Economic impact canít be judged without adding in the impact of of a few million funerals. If we stop quarantine this will accelerate this dramatically.
    6. We have absolutely no clue what we are dealing with. We arenít testing. This is the biggest public health failure in history.

    So, on the upside....

    1. Droplet precautions has held up under further research on Covid19. Thats good. Itís why we are still posting on a cycling forum.
    2. Surface communicability is coming into focus.
    3. Cluster transmission is consistent with both of the above and is holding. Sadly, Iím in a cluster. We will see.
    4. Masks protect people from your sneezes. They do nothing to protect you from the virus. I know, I live with this every single day. Gloves? Stop.
    5. This virus is spread by hand contact. Thatís that. Unless someone sneezes in your face. Droplet precautions work. PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR HANDS!!

    if you have questions, donít hesitate. Accuracy matters. I will do my best. I am not an ID doc, immunologist or epidemiologist. I do get daily briefings as a front line healthcare worker.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Strongbow View Post
    Thanks, glad to see someone with an actual clue weigh in.

    I hope you decide to just cut/paste that everywhere it's a fitting response. Armchair quarterbacks can then decide if they believe you, and many won't, or if what you said will magically become moot on Easter.
    PBK450 - Nicely written... as ex-Operations Manager in the Healthcare field, specialized in Environmental Services and cleaning and sanitizing hospital ER's and Surgical units
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  25. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by ROAD&DIRT View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PBL450 View Post
    I just want to leave a few thoughts...

    1. There isnít a value in drawing comparisons to flu. Yes, flu is bad and it kills lots of people. So does every unnamed virus. They kill young people too. If you have never hung out with ER nurses, I encourage it at some point after this.
    2. This virus is novel. We donít have any history of exposure, so we have no acquired immunodefenses. So, thatís bad. Thatís why old people are so vulnerable. Typically older people that still have some life in them also have a huge library of exposures.
    3. This virus most resembles SARS. It is (somewhat) less lethal but spreads much more efficiently. But it most resembles SARS. You should be afraid of that. You Doctor is.
    4. The most widely used intervention against this will be hope. Let that sink in.
    5. Economic impact canít be judged without adding in the impact of of a few million funerals. If we stop quarantine this will accelerate this dramatically.
    6. We have absolutely no clue what we are dealing with. We arenít testing. This is the biggest public health failure in history.

    So, on the upside....

    1. Droplet precautions has held up under further research on Covid19. Thats good. Itís why we are still posting on a cycling forum.
    2. Surface communicability is coming into focus.
    3. Cluster transmission is consistent with both of the above and is holding. Sadly, Iím in a cluster. We will see.
    4. Masks protect people from your sneezes. They do nothing to protect you from the virus. I know, I live with this every single day. Gloves? Stop.
    5. This virus is spread by hand contact. Thatís that. Unless someone sneezes in your face. Droplet precautions work. PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR HANDS!!

    if you have questions, donít hesitate. Accuracy matters. I will do my best. I am not an ID doc, immunologist or epidemiologist. I do get daily briefings as a front line healthcare worker.



    PBK450 - Nicely written... as ex-Operations Manager in the Healthcare field, specialized in Environmental Services and cleaning and sanitizing hospital ER's and Surgical units
    Oh wow! The unknown hero! People have no earthly idea how freaking important you are! You have EVERYONES back! I have a friend who does healthcare water systems, from rooftop towers to ice makers, you name it... You save more lives than docs!
    To date, philosophers have merely interpreted the world in various ways. The point however is to change it.

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