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  1. #1
    Cleavage Of The Tetons
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    Sobering Thought...

    But I bet more than a few ‘boutique’ manufacturers don’t survive this crisis.
    Something to ponder.
    I mean, who is going to need some ceramic speed jockey wheels in ‘20?

    (Etc)

  2. #2
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    Yep. The economic carnage of this will blow up so many small businesses. I have always gone out of my way to support local small businesses and I will definitely be redoubling my efforts going forward. LBS are not essential and are shuttered in NJ.
    To date, philosophers have merely interpreted the world in various ways. The point however is to change it.

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    Maybe NC will follow Cuomo's lead - and recategorize bike shops as essential. Either way, yeah... bike shops are going get hurt bad over the next 6-12 months.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    But I bet more than a few ‘boutique’ manufacturers don’t survive this crisis.
    Something to ponder.
    I mean, who is going to need some ceramic speed jockey wheels in ‘20?

    (Etc)
    I plan to hoarding all the available ceramic jockey wheels. Then, when they are no longer available, and will leave everyone in the dust

  5. #5
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    PA Governor Wolf listed bike shops as allowed to remain open for bicycle repairs and maintenance.
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  6. #6
    Cleavage Of The Tetons
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    Kudos, Industry 9.
    Innovate or die.
    I will certainly consider some in the future now if they produce a quiet microspline hub!

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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldZaskar View Post
    Maybe NC will follow Cuomo's lead - and recategorize bike shops as essential. Either way, yeah... bike shops are going get hurt bad over the next 6-12 months.
    They are allowed to operate in Ohio. My prediction - this shutdown won't last more than a month - just not sustainable. The cure will be worse than the disease.
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  8. #8
    Cleavage Of The Tetons
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    They are allowed to operate in Ohio. My prediction - this shutdown won't last more than a month - just not sustainable. The cure will be worse than the disease.
    I think it makes sense to adjust the lock down at a more granular level. It doesn't makes sense to have the same level of lock-down in Albany as there is in NYC. Once we get more hospital capacity and a more effective treatment (assuming there is one), there will be pressure to get back to work. This is not sustainable and if the only way it ends if most of us get it, its futile to destroy the economy for a losing battle. In the 1918 pandemic, people who would have otherwise survived died due to malnutrition caused by the chaos. At this point I am almost ready to say infect me now and get it over with

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Yeah, there are more pivoting to both help out and keep the lights on and employees in pay.

    https://bikerumor.com/2020/03/23/bik...d-19-pandemic/

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    They are allowed to operate in Ohio. My prediction - this shutdown won't last more than a month - just not sustainable. The cure will be worse than the disease.


    This isn't a cure...it is slowing the complete gridlock and collapse of the hospitals in the USA to maybe an almost-manageable extreme rush-hour; which is all but inevitable if we value dollars over lives...which seems to be the decision of some. Your assessment is easy to reach...when you're not in need of medical care. We have 900,000 non-ICU hospital beds in the USA...and in normal times 65% of them are full. And that is before medical supplies outright run out.

    Remind me about the "cure" being worse than the disease...when you're in a bike accident and need an ER, and they're out of supplies and room.


    What is going on in Italy...that is us in a week or so. They too cannot test anyone, and people have been ignoring quarantines....and guess what. Complete medical collapse/freefall. But at least your stocks will not crash?
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    The cure will be worse than the disease.
    Cool talking point. Where'd ya get it? Oh... right.


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    .... someone should tell the POS there is no I in we.
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    This isn't a cure...it is slowing the complete gridlock and collapse of the hospitals in the USA to maybe an almost-manageable extreme rush-hour; which is all but inevitable if we value dollars over lives...which seems to be the decision of some. Your assessment is easy to reach...when you're not in need of medical care. We have 900,000 non-ICU hospital beds in the USA...and in normal times 65% of them are full. And that is before medical supplies outright run out.

    Remind me about the "cure" being worse than the disease...when you're in a bike accident and need an ER, and they're out of supplies and room.


    What is going on in Italy...that is us in a week or so. They too cannot test anyone, and people have been ignoring quarantines....and guess what. Complete medical collapse/freefall. But at least your stocks will not crash?
    I have to spread the rep around it appears! This ^^.
    To date, philosophers have merely interpreted the world in various ways. The point however is to change it.

  15. #15
    Cleavage Of The Tetons
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    They are allowed to operate in Ohio. My prediction - this shutdown won't last more than a month - just not sustainable. The cure will be worse than the disease.
    I guess...if you believe being broke is worse than being dead.

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    All of the local bike shops in my area are closed. Most have signs up saying they can meet by appointment only (by emailing them) for bike sales or service.

    The huge local bike club sent out an email saying they expect to be bankrupt in a very short period of time because no one is signing up for their bike rides. They even sent an email out begging for donations to 'SAVE' them (seriously, this pissed me off!).

    There are more people out on bikes that I've seen in years. The MUT's are technically county and city parks, and for the time being, they are being allowed to stay open, but as soon as these bikes start to break down and need parts and servicing, I suspect it will taper off.

    My GF called me yesterday wanting her bikes prepped for a ride (been in the garage all winter - tires need air, etc...) so her and her adult daughter, who is in town because her college is shut down, can go for a bike ride. I asked her what helmet the daughter was going to wear and she responded that she'd stop by the bike shop and get one (nope - you won't).

    She ended up ordering her one on Amazon.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    This isn't a cure...it is slowing the complete gridlock and collapse of the hospitals in the USA to maybe an almost-manageable extreme rush-hour; which is all but inevitable if we value dollars over lives...which seems to be the decision of some. Your assessment is easy to reach...when you're not in need of medical care. We have 900,000 non-ICU hospital beds in the USA...and in normal times 65% of them are full. And that is before medical supplies outright run out.

    Remind me about the "cure" being worse than the disease...when you're in a bike accident and need an ER, and they're out of supplies and room.


    What is going on in Italy...that is us in a week or so. They too cannot test anyone, and people have been ignoring quarantines....and guess what. Complete medical collapse/freefall. But at least your stocks will not crash?
    That free fall could also be the complete collapse of our economy down the road. Money dries up, food and other critical goods become scarce. Even if you have money there is nothing to buy. Law and order falls apart. Looting. What if the lock down lasts 3 months, 6 months, a year? What happens then? I think we need to maintain the lock-down until we add more medical capacity and tests, but then we focus on the hot spots and ease up on the areas that have a low infection rate. Continue to protect our seniors and folks with medical conditions. Its completely possible this doesn't end until most of us get it, and for the majority the disease is not that bad that bad. The lock-down buys us time, but it may have no effect of the total number of folks that eventually get COVID

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    That free fall could also be the complete collapse of our economy down the road. Money dries up, food and other critical goods become scarce. Even if you have money there is nothing to buy. Law and order falls apart. Looting. What if the lock down lasts 3 months, 6 months, a year? What happens then? I think we need to maintain the lock-down until we add more medical capacity and tests, but then we focus on the hot spots and ease up on the areas that have a low infection rate. Continue to protect our seniors and folks with medical conditions. Its completely possible this doesn't end until most of us get it, and for the majority the disease is not that bad that bad. The lock-down buys us time, but it may have no effect of the total number of folks that eventually get COVID
    So, yes to some and no to much. Keep perspective. The people issuing guidance right now are MDs and public health folk, throw in the immunoviroligists. It is uniquely the MDs that are driving this response, and I get it. I’m a healthcare, frontline worker. I work with docs all day, every day. They are so committed to saving lives above all else. They tell the families of those lost. It’s fuc*ing really hard. And it’s fuc*ing really hard on a good day. Throw in a pandemic. They DO NOT WANT TO BE MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT WHO TO LET DIE BECAUSE OF RESOURCE SHORTAGES! “You, well you are 23, you get the next vent. You, at 66, sorry, you die.” This is where we are at right now. That is why we are trying so hard to flatten the curve. Yes, we are going to get this. I’ll skip viral reproduction, adaptation and the host relationship because that’s a whole other conversation... Dragging this out has very important impacts on the mortality of our population. It’s cluster spreading. We understand that, standard healthcare droplet precautions are still efficacious. New England Journal of Medicine confirmed this today. The Brits initially thought they could safely establish herd immunity by ignoring this. They were wrong. They changed course. Some countries are still going to try this. Sucks to be old or compromised in those countries.
    To date, philosophers have merely interpreted the world in various ways. The point however is to change it.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBL450 View Post
    So, yes to some and no to much. Keep perspective. The people issuing guidance right now are MDs and public health folk, throw in the immunoviroligists. It is uniquely the MDs that are driving this response, and I get it. I’m a healthcare, frontline worker. I work with docs all day, every day. They are so committed to saving lives above all else. They tell the families of those lost. It’s fuc*ing really hard. And it’s fuc*ing really hard on a good day. Throw in a pandemic. They DO NOT WANT TO BE MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT WHO TO LET DIE BECAUSE OF RESOURCE SHORTAGES! “You, well you are 23, you get the next vent. You, at 66, sorry, you die.” This is where we are at right now. That is why we are trying so hard to flatten the curve. Yes, we are going to get this. I’ll skip viral reproduction, adaptation and the host relationship because that’s a whole other conversation... Dragging this out has very important impacts on the mortality of our population. It’s cluster spreading. We understand that, standard healthcare droplet precautions are still efficacious. New England Journal of Medicine confirmed this today. The Brits initially thought they could safely establish herd immunity by ignoring this. They were wrong. They changed course. Some countries are still going to try this. Sucks to be old or compromised in those countries.
    PBL, if you are on the front lines you have my respect, and I hope you have what you need to stay safe. In no way am I advocating ending the lock-down near term. We need to get more PPE and more ICU capacity in the near term. Once that happens though we need to think about the long term strategy. No matter what we do (unless we have a cure or vaccine) we just can't save everyone, no matter how many hospital beds and ventilators we have. Yes, that is harsh but its the reality. There are difficult choices ahead

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    That free fall could also be the complete collapse of our economy down the road. Money dries up, food and other critical goods become scarce. Even if you have money there is nothing to buy. Law and order falls apart. Looting. What if the lock down lasts 3 months, 6 months, a year? What happens then? I think we need to maintain the lock-down until we add more medical capacity and tests, but then we focus on the hot spots and ease up on the areas that have a low infection rate. Continue to protect our seniors and folks with medical conditions. Its completely possible this doesn't end until most of us get it, and for the majority the disease is not that bad that bad. The lock-down buys us time, but it may have no effect of the total number of folks that eventually get COVID
    Believe it or not, Dump* is already considering the alternative... lifting restrictions to ensure the economy survives, even if the citizenry does not.

    And why now. The virus will severely impact cities with high population density (urban centers that likely wouldn't vote Republican in November). Rural communities with greater isolation and less population density, where many still think this is all just a hoax or blown out of proportion will be much less likely to be affected.
    Given his penchant for nicknames, and his aversion to reading, I've decided to shorten Donald J. Trump to it's essence: Dump*

    I was "social distancing" before it was cool.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Opus51569 View Post
    Rural communities with greater isolation and less population density, where many still think this is all just a hoax or blown out of proportion will be much less likely to be affected.
    This is true for Nov, but after that, the rural communities will just be spooling up and they have the least infrastructure to handle any of this. That will be 2021+.

    So, then we really will run out of food. The way it is now the farmers can still run, the truck roll, and we limit the ...dead. But if the farmers are in lockdown in 2021 growing season, you had better have your stuff in order.
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  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    This isn't a cure...it is slowing the complete gridlock and collapse of the hospitals in the USA to maybe an almost-manageable extreme rush-hour; which is all but inevitable if we value dollars over lives...which seems to be the decision of some. Your assessment is easy to reach...when you're not in need of medical care. We have 900,000 non-ICU hospital beds in the USA...and in normal times 65% of them are full. And that is before medical supplies outright run out.

    Remind me about the "cure" being worse than the disease...when you're in a bike accident and need an ER, and they're out of supplies and room.
    How long would you keep areas locked down? The virus could be with us for a long time.
    Last edited by Srode; 6 Days Ago at 03:39 AM.
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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Opus51569 View Post
    Believe it or not, Dump* is already considering the alternative... lifting restrictions to ensure the economy survives, even if the citizenry does not.
    all of the local / city / state lockdowns are not the result of the US government, it's mayors and governers that are making those decisions. The president just chose to close the borders to non-essential travel and is supporting the States choices and requests. If lockdowns are lifted, it will be at the local / state level where it originated.
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  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Opus51569 View Post
    Believe it or not, Dump* is already considering the alternative... lifting restrictions to ensure the economy survives, even if the citizenry does not.

    And why now. The virus will severely impact cities with high population density (urban centers that likely wouldn't vote Republican in November). Rural communities with greater isolation and less population density, where many still think this is all just a hoax or blown out of proportion will be much less likely to be affected.
    I think its premature to lift the restrictions until we see the impact (hopefully positive) that it had, but those decisions aren't being made by the POTUS. As Srode already pointed out the restrictions are being done at the state and local level. I doubt there is any chance of highly affected states lifting the measures near term

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldZaskar View Post
    Cool talking point. Where'd ya get it?
    Francis Bacon I believe originated the phrase.
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