Corona virus numbers - Page 2
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  1. #26
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    The downside of the current "flatten the curve" approach is that unless there is a vaccine, it will lengthen the time of the crisis. At some point we will have to make a decision. Go back to work and accept that people will get sick or hunker down and completely destroy what is left of the economy. Things like treatment options and infection rate will be part of the equation

  2. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    The downside of the current "flatten the curve" approach is that unless there is a vaccine, it will lengthen the time of the crisis. At some point we will have to make a decision. Go back to work and accept that people will get sick or hunker down and completely destroy what is left of the economy. Things like treatment options and infection rate will be part of the equation

    The upside...it lessens the instant overwhelm of medical personnel and equipment. The US has a total of 900,000 hospital beds nationwide. And nationwide we have about 100,000 ICU beds....and normally those beds are 65% full or so. And that is just beds, never mind extra needed/wanted equipment in limited supply.

    The alternative to "flatten the curve", and giving time to maybe get more equipment/personnel/space active.....


    Is a complete and utter LA-at-rush-hour traffic jam of all medical facilities in the US for who knows how long as everything is swamped and overrun. Remember, much of the US landmass doesn't have a hospital within 2 hours drive. "Go back to work" almost inevitably means Option B and lots of people dying for lack of supplies/space...because the Dow Jones Average is more important than lives.
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  3. #28
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    I don’t trust Fox, but this is sobering.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavir...an-hour-in-nyc

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    There is clearly a different reaction to the disease among different people so while no one may be totally immune there is something that makes them less susceptible. Korea did not test "everyone". They did test a lot more folks than other countries (270,000 tested out of 51 million people) and that seemed to help. The also put in measures that might be impossible to implement in the US and other western nations as they involved tracking people using the phone and other measures that might be considered extreme government intrusion. The reality is this lock-down does not stop the disease, it just slows it down. There is no guarantee that less people will get sick overall. But with more time comes possible treatments and slowing of the need for medical care. A likely scenario is that a high percentage of us will eventually get this thing no matter what
    Agreed--Korea did not test everyone, but they followed proper epidemiological protocols--started with known cases, tracked down all who had been exposed and tested everyone they could confirm had been exposed. (At least until Patient 31 got loose and personally infected and estimated 1000 people and blew the lid off containment.)

    The US did not do this, except in the first outbreak in New Rochelle where they traced a whole (first large) series of infections in NY to a single carrier who infected people both at work and at a Jewish gathering. Some of the same work was done in Washington State--but once it became multiple points of origin, the health departments were no longer able to trace these chains of infection.

    Rough numbers:

    Jan 20 - the day that both the US and S. Korea identified their 1st COVID-19 patient.

    Between then and Mar 15, South Korea tested ~270,000 people, set up a stringent isolation program, and implemented a program to track the carrier vectors which suppressed the rate of infection substantially. The US tested 25,000 and set up an isolation program driven by individual state mandate. We continue to double the infection rate every <2.5 days.
    Let's be clear--if you have sufficient exposure, you will be infected. At that point there are clearly different reactions to the disease as far as severity is concerned--which may be what you are saying--on which everyone agrees.

    Now the two questions are--

    (!) at that point, will you be infected and asymptomatic? (and no good science on this);
    (2) will the disease progress to the point that you will require going on a ventilator etc, and/or will it be fatal?

    On these questions--there is evidence from China that the young are both more likely to be asymptomatic (although still carriers of the infection), AND if they get it, they are less likely to succumb to the illness.

    The strongest correlation (although the causality is NOT clear) is that fatalities skew older, and seem to be related to pre-existing conditions, especially hypertension, ie high blood pressure.

    The best short video is this interview with Anthony Fauci--answering the common questions about the COVID-19:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXY76TKNy2Y
    Last edited by paredown; 03-23-2020 at 02:42 PM.
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  5. #30
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    early in the 20th century, US forest service was hell bent on putting out fires until we realized the "normal" of fires... but we still build in fire zones.

    Politicians ask science to give time frames that are arbitrary... In 30 days the virus will say "you needed 32 days".


    News anchors on TV sitting apart to in separate studios to linked for home. The rise of "Skynet" for robotics in the workforce with our rush for a cure creating a zombie apocalypse... and an invasion from space of killer klowns. A wash if it get rids us of POTUS??? Go 2020!!!!
    Last edited by Akirasho; 03-21-2020 at 12:31 PM.

  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.
    No genetic component that anyone is aware of. As I stressed in my other post--no one has antibodies for this because it is new; ergo, anyone who is exposed sufficiently will be infected. Full stop.

    I suspect the German numbers will climb as their serious cases progress. But has been the case (as reported by the news) that Italy did have severe shortages of ventilators, and were having to triage by simply not putting the very old (and those with underlying conditions--ie the least likely to survive) on ventilators. Maybe Germany had more available, or their epidemic is progressing slower?
    Last edited by paredown; 03-21-2020 at 12:52 PM.
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  7. #32
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    On the seriousness of the asymptomatic population, this report from Italy put the percentage of people infected but WHO SHOW NO SYMPTOMS between 50 and 70%:

    "Coronavirus: "Il 50-75% dei casi a Vo' sono asintomatici. Una formidabile fonte di contagio" is the headline; roughly "50-75% of cases in Vo 'are asymptomatic. A formidable source of contagion"

    https://www.repubblica.it/salute/med...C12-P3-S2.4-T1
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  8. #33
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    Anyone interested in the numbers--updated frequently--a 17 year old kid in Bellevue WA, got interested when the virus was confined to China (Dec?) and built a website to track the number of infections worldwide. It is the single best source for current stats (!) and everyone is using it.

    He shows Germany at 21,890 cases, 77 fatalities 209 recovered and only 2 serious cases--which really impressive.

    https://ncov2019.live/
    Last edited by paredown; 03-21-2020 at 02:50 PM.
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  9. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    No genetic component that anyone is aware of. As I stressed in my other post--no one has antibodies for this because it is new; ergo, anyone who is exposed sufficiently will be infected. Full stop.

    I suspect the German numbers will climb as their serious cases progress. But has been the case (as reported by the news) that Italy did have severe shortages of ventilators, and were having to triage by simply not putting the very old (and those with underlying conditions--ie the least likely to survive) on ventilators. Maybe Germany had more available, or their epidemic is progressing slower?
    It is not true that anyone exposed will necessarily get sick. That's not true of any virus. This one isn't the first new virus; and other new viruses haven't made every single person to contact it infected. Even if this one infects a higher percentage, it won't infect everyone who contacts it.
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  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    It is not true that anyone exposed will necessarily get sick. That's not true of any virus. This one isn't the first new virus; and other new viruses haven't made every single person to contact it infected. Even if this one infects a higher percentage, it won't infect everyone who contacts it.
    It's a complicated question--IRL, you are correct--the closest there is to a real population's (high) rate of infection was the cruise ship--where the infection rate was about 1 in 6 (from memory, lost the link). But even there, the questions of who was directly exposed, for how long, who washed their hands etc etc all bear on the issue of who gets infected.

    I think my statement still stands though--the theoretical infection rate is 100%--since we have no antibodies to combat this infection (novel; new) everyone potentially can be infected. And yes, we have had other new viruses--but from what I can glean from reading and listening to the talking heads--we have never had one this virulent, at least since the "Spanish" flu.

    And that story is instructive--because there were no antibodies for it (and no treatment), it continued to circle the globe ( I seem to recall the estimate was three times?) and infect more people in areas where it had already been active, since there was no basic immunity in any population--just because you might have missed it the first time, you might not be so lucky the second or third time. And there is at least some who believe that a precursor version--but less virulent--had been in the wild some twenty or so years before, so that some portion of the population did have immunity.

    Unless they come up with a vaccine this is likely to be the case with this one as well, I think. (My one friend who is a Doc is already pushing herself to the limit at Montefiore in the Bronx, so I can't have my usual chat with an expert to clarify my thinking...)

    A few other tidbits--one is that this is the type of virus that contains pattern checking, r proof-reading--so less likely to mutate in the wild and become more treatable. It also appears that if you are infected, you are casting off infection to those around you almost immediately--even if it takes you the average 4 days to show symptoms. That's true of those who remain asymptomatic through the whole infection I believe.

    The third bit is--whatever the official number, because of the lag in testing what is being reported is much, much lower--conversely, as the testing ramps up, the number of cases will appear to grow like crazy (as we have just seen in NY)--but you are now seeing the official numbers catching up to the real numbers out in the wild as the testing ramps up. Best discussion of that is here:

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
    Last edited by paredown; 03-23-2020 at 02:50 PM.
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  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    It is not true that anyone exposed will necessarily get sick. That's not true of any virus. This one isn't the first new virus; and other new viruses haven't made every single person to contact it infected. Even if this one infects a higher percentage, it won't infect everyone who contacts it.
    He said "who is exposed sufficiently"

    So off course he's correct. That's what sufficiently means. As I would be correct in saying I'll win the Boston marathon if I train sufficiently. Am I willing and able physically? Hell no. But I said 'sufficiently' so I'm correct.


    Maybe he's an attorney. It's classic wording to try an deliver a certain message but actually saying nothing in case you get called on it.

  12. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Strongbow View Post
    He said "who is exposed sufficiently"

    So off course he's correct. That's what sufficiently means. As I would be correct in saying I'll win the Boston marathon if I train sufficiently. Am I willing and able physically? Hell no. But I said 'sufficiently' so I'm correct.


    Maybe he's an attorney. It's classic wording to try an deliver a certain message but actually saying nothing in case you get called on it.
    Not an attorney--just an unemployed historian.

    My concern in emphasizing the fact that anyone of us can potentially be infected is that I have been seeing a lot of carelessness IRL on the part of people who have not grasped the seriousness of this epidemic. The kids at the beaches being the most obvious--but it is much more widespread than that.

    My current pet peeve--people are using the blue disposable gloves (Good)--and then doffing them outside stores and tossing them on the ground--WTF? Who do they think will have to pick those up and dispose of them?
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  13. #38
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    Cruise ship story is here:

    As of February 22, 2020, two days after the scheduled two-week quarantine came to an end, a total of 621 symptomatic and asymptomatic people including one quarantine officer, one nurse and one administrative officer tested positive for COVID-19 out of the 3711 passengers and crew members on board.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...68042720300063
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  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    Snip
    My current pet peeve--people are using the blue disposable gloves (Good)--and then doffing them outside stores and tossing them on the ground--WTF? Who do they think will have to pick those up and dispose of them?
    ^^^
    How many novice even know how to remove them?


  15. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    Not an attorney--just an unemployed historian.

    My concern in emphasizing the fact that anyone of us can potentially be infected is that I have been seeing a lot of carelessness IRL on the part of people who have not grasped the seriousness of this epidemic. The kids at the beaches being the most obvious--but it is much more widespread than that.

    My current pet peeve--people are using the blue disposable gloves (Good)--and then doffing them outside stores and tossing them on the ground--WTF? Who do they think will have to pick those up and dispose of them?
    I get your point.

    I can offer one anecdote that might make you feel a little better: I am definitely NOT the type of person that has historically paid a lot of attention fear of virus, germs ect. And at age 54 changing habits of no longer one of my strong point.

    And I definitely 100% 'get it' now.

    I live in downtown Boston is a crowded (usually) neighborhood and it looks obvious that my fellow residents and would-be tourists 'get it' also for the most part.

  16. #41
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    moved below...nope can't do that:

    FWIW--another data point on transmission rates--a party in Connecticut with 50 guests on March 5th, and more than half of the guests test positive for the Covid-19 virus. (And as the Brits are saying, this is not casual contact but extended exposure--they are saying 2 hrs of contact). And this group probably singlehandedly vaulted this little town in CT into the lead for the most cases in the state:

    "Westport, a town of 28,000 on the Long Island Sound, did not have a single known case of the coronavirus on the day of the party. It had 85 on Monday, up more than 40-fold in 11 days."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/u...arty-zero.html
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  17. #42
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    Hawaii has a rough road ahead. An isolated population in the middle of a vast ocean. It is sobering to read how few ventilators the state has for a population of 1.4 million residents. I am not even counting the tourists that remain on the island.

    So far, 48 COVID cases and counting.

    https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/03/ar...or-a-pandemic/

    Hawaii’s hospitals own a collective 561 ventilators, with the bulk of them on Oahu.

    Neighbor islands have the shortest stock of ventilators: Kauai County has 18 ventilators, Maui County has 27, and Hawaii Island has 39.

  18. #43
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    A little something extra to be outraged about...

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/christopher...igin=flipboard

    'cuz we didn't have enough yet.

    Then there's governor Tate Reeves in Mississippi, substituting bible study and prayers for leadership...

    https://hillreporter.com/gop-governo...s-mayors-62154
    Last edited by Opus51569; 03-23-2020 at 03:50 PM.
    Given his penchant for nicknames, and his aversion to reading, I've decided to shorten Donald J. Trump to it's essence: Dump*

    I was "social distancing" before it was cool.

  19. #44
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    More reading--this is important (and clearly I overstated the claim that everyone exposed will get the disease.) Unfortunately the body of this paper concentrates on the differential response among patients who do--the severity of the infection, but is interesting nonetheless:

    Scientists and clinicians have learned much of coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, and its pathogenesis [1]: not all people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 are infected and not all infected patients develop severe respiratory illness. Accordingly, SARS-CoV-2 infection can be roughly divided into three stages: stage I, an asymptomatic incubation period with or without detectable virus; stage II, non-severe symptomatic period with the presence of virus; stage III, severe respiratory symptomatic stage with high viral load [2]. From the point of view of prevention, individuals at stage I, the stealth carriers, are the least manageable because, at least on some occasions, they spread the virus unknowingly: indeed, the first asymptomatic transmission has been reported in Germany [3]. The role of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in disseminating the infection remains to be defined.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41418-020-0530-3
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  20. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    More reading--this is important (and clearly I overstated the claim that everyone exposed will get the disease.) Unfortunately the body of this paper concentrates on the differential response among patients who do--the severity of the infection, but is interesting nonetheless:



    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41418-020-0530-3
    I was seeing on the news today that doctor's are working on a test that can tell if you have HAD (past tense) the virus. That would be helpful in that those folks could be released from some of the restrictions. I could also substantially lower the real mortality rate

  21. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by bradkay View Post
    It's the classic stereotype exemplified by this old joke:

    European Heaven
    The police are British
    The mechanics are Germans
    The cooks are Italian
    The lovers are French
    And it's organized by the Swiss

    European Hell
    The police are German
    The mechanics are French
    The cooks are British
    The lovers are Swiss
    And it's organized by the Italians


    Bad stereotyping, I know...
    The perfect war ...

    American equipment
    German troops
    British officers
    French food
    And the Italians for the enemy

  22. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by pmf View Post
    The perfect war ...

    American equipment
    German troops
    British officers
    French food
    And the Italians for the enemy
    Wouldn't the French for the enemy be better? Not a single shot would need to be fired

  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    Wouldn't the French for the enemy be better? Not a single shot would need to be fired
    Gil would like a word with you...

    Donald Trump has never had a wife he didn't cheat on.

    Donald Trump has never won a popular vote in a governmental election.

    There are over 13 million covid cases in the United States (as of Thanksgiving), eleven months after Donald Trump said it was "totally under control," and that "it's gonna be just fine."

  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by pmf View Post
    The perfect war ...

    American equipment
    German troops
    British officers
    French food
    And the Italians for the enemy
    Reminds me of a joke that starts...."Stormtroopers or Red-Shirts, who would win?"
    "We are doomed to live in very interesting times"

  25. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by xxl View Post
    Gil would like a word with you...

    Damm Fine Painting !
    Got any Test Kit's ,Bed's, or Ventilator's ? This is a serious Pandemic !

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