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  1. #51
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    Last day at work for me today New Zealand is going into total lock down for 4 weeks , must stay at home but you can go out to supermarkets for food etc we can exercise outside,alone or with the people we live/ isolated with. must stay 2 meters away from anybody else.We can go out to Exercise walking, running, cycling,as long as we keep 2 meters way from others . I can see I'll be getting in a lot of solo rides in the next 4 weeks .The Government will be paying us 80% of our wages so we should be ok .As of today 25/3/2020 we have 205 cases of Coronavirus we may see the number rise for a week or so and then flatten out ,we have moved fast and should get it cleared up fast we have a lot in our favor being an isolated island country with a small population .will keep you posted on how things go down here

  2. #52
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    The accelerating pandemic it took 67 days to reach the first 100,000 cases and four days to hit the latest 100,000, according to the World Health Organization
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    Wouldn't the French for the enemy be better? Not a single shot would need to be fired
    I didn't make it up, but to me, the last two are interchangeable.

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Ok, I'm confused on the reporting on the Corona virus. They say all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy. But they are reporting 41,035 cases in Italy at the moment. And 80-85% of cases are mild, so wouldn't require hospitalization. That leaves 8,207 cases requiring hospitalization (going with 20%). In a country with 60 million people.

    Are there really that few hospitals in Italy that they're already overrun with patients? Or is it actually like 3 hospitals in one area, and not the whole country as they're reporting?
    In addition to what everyone else has said, add to it that the average time on a ventilator in ICU in normal times is 3-5 days... A convid-19 patient averages between 11-21 days on the ventilator in the ICU

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  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    The accelerating pandemic it took 67 days to reach the first 100,000 cases and four days to hit the latest 100,000, according to the World Health Organization
    True, but that is to be expected as testing ramps up
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  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    True, but that is to be expected as testing ramps up
    Also to be expected...because in the USA people are being stupid and engaging in normal activity.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    True, but that is to be expected as testing ramps up
    We have not ramped up testing nearly enough. Or in enough places in force. There's a lot of uncertainty in the relationship between increased actual cases and increased positive tests.

    Focus on the death numbers, because there those are solid. Track the rate of growth of the deaths. That's the number to pay attention to.

    I am thinking two orders of magnitude above where we are now. By the end of the year.
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  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    We have not ramped up testing nearly enough. Or in enough places in force. There's a lot of uncertainty in the relationship between increased actual cases and increased positive tests.

    Focus on the death numbers, because there those are solid. Track the rate of growth of the deaths. That's the number to pay attention to.

    I am thinking two orders of magnitude above where we are now. By the end of the year.
    I'm working on learning data visualization and have the live COVID19 dataset opened in Tableau ATM....John Hopkins just issued an addendum to their COVID19 data effective today I think that they are no longer tracking "recovered" persons, due to issues with data consistency. The used to have "infected", "dead", and "recovered".
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  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    We have not ramped up testing nearly enough. Or in enough places in force. There's a lot of uncertainty in the relationship between increased actual cases and increased positive tests.

    Focus on the death numbers, because there those are solid. Track the rate of growth of the deaths. That's the number to pay attention to.

    I am thinking two orders of magnitude above where we are now. By the end of the year.
    Here in NJ the State COVID website has started publishing negative tests results. So now we know there are ~6800 positives and ~14000 negatives. The numbers in northern NJ close to NYC are escalating very rapidly. Here in the southern half the numbers are still small, but not enough to let our guard down

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    We have not ramped up testing nearly enough. Or in enough places in force. There's a lot of uncertainty in the relationship between increased actual cases and increased positive tests.

    Focus on the death numbers, because there those are solid. Track the rate of growth of the deaths. That's the number to pay attention to.

    I am thinking two orders of magnitude above where we are now. By the end of the year.
    Tracking just death rates won't work. More people are have died from the flu than coronavirus this season, so if we only track death numbers, we'd not even know we had a pandemic. (But, as far as we know, many more people have had the flu)
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  11. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Tracking just death rates won't work.
    I did not say that. I said track the RATE of GROWTH of deaths, or more accurately the rate of growth of the death rate. The rate of change over time.

    Positive tests are useful information, especially in areas where LOTS of tests are being done. NYC for example. But I stand by my statement that if you want to know what is going on nationally and what to expect, you will be a lot more accurate by looking at death data and not positive test data.

    This uses that approach, https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...rch-25-update/ and does not require graduate level epidemiology to follow.
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  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    I did not say that. I said track the RATE of GROWTH of deaths, or more accurately the rate of growth of the death rate. The rate of change over time.

    Positive tests are useful information, especially in areas where LOTS of tests are being done. NYC for example. But I stand by my statement that if you want to know what is going on nationally and what to expect, you will be a lot more accurate by looking at death data and not positive test data.

    This uses that approach, https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...rch-25-update/ and does not require graduate level epidemiology to follow.
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  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    I did not say that. I said track the RATE of GROWTH of deaths, or more accurately the rate of growth of the death rate. The rate of change over time.

    Positive tests are useful information, especially in areas where LOTS of tests are being done. NYC for example. But I stand by my statement that if you want to know what is going on nationally and what to expect, you will be a lot more accurate by looking at death data and not positive test data.

    This uses that approach, https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...rch-25-update/ and does not require graduate level epidemiology to follow.
    Agree, the rate of deaths or even rate of hospitalization, provides good data on the trend of the disease. I am hoping we see a data point soon that shows a slowing of the current rate

  14. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    Agree, the rate of deaths or even rate of hospitalization, provides good data on the trend of the disease. I am hoping we see a data point soon that shows a slowing of the current rate
    The reason the media isn't reporting the numbers, with regards to deaths and hospitalizations, is because those numbers aren't impressive... and don't serve the media's purpose of fearmongering.

    There have been a total worldwide number of 24,000 fatal cases due to coronavirus within the last few months. the overwhelming majority being of old people with pre-existing conditions who were going to die anyway very shortly.

    The normal world-wide death-rate is about 60 million deaths each year; that's 5 million each month...and the demographic of people dying is the same...old people with pre-existing conditions.

    This whole thing has been blown way out of proportion.
    Last edited by M-theory; 03-26-2020 at 05:01 PM.

  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    Every year roughly 1% of the world population dies. Italy and Germany have populations of 60 million and 83 million respectively. The yearly death rate for those countries is about 600,000 and 830,000 people respectively. That's under normal circumstances.

    So far the 'total' death count in Italy due to the coronavirus has been 7,500, and last I heard it's starting to abate. Meanwhile, the monthly death rate in Italy, under normal circumstances is 50,000. So an increased death rate of merely 15% has the entire health care system overwhelmed?
    And Italy is the worst case scenario.

    The reason the media isn't reporting the numbers, with regards to deaths and hospitalizations, is because those numbers aren't impressive... and don't serve the media's purpose of fearmongering.

    There have been a total worldwide number of 24,000 fatal cases due to coronavirus within the last few months. the overwhelming majority being of old people with pre-existing conditions who were going to die anyway very shortly.

    The normal world-wide death-rate is about 60 million deaths each year; that's 5 million each month...and the demographic of people dying is the same...old people with pre-existing conditions.

    This whole thing has been blown way out of proportion.
    The fundamental flaw in you if/then statement...and undermines all the rest you say....Is that you can be hospitalized and not die. There are of course others.


    I will agree...you're blowing your own expertise way out of proportion.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    The fundamental flaw in you if/then statement...and undermines all the rest you say....Is that you can be hospitalized and not die. There are of course others.


    I will agree...you're blowing your own expertise way out of proportion.
    Ah yes, the predictable snarky comment. 'There are of course others', yes there are, but the numbers themselves would indicate not that many. Most people are asymptomatic. And it's the same demographic that's normally in and out of the hospital system...with pre-existing conditions.

    I can understand a shortage of ventilators, something specific to this particular disease, and easily remedied, but sorry if I'm not convinced about the rest.

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    Ah yes, the predictable snarky comment. 'There are of course others', yes there are, but the numbers themselves would indicate not that many. Most people are asymptomatic. And it's the same demographic that's normally in and out of the hospital system...with pre-existing conditions.

    I can understand a shortage of ventilators, something specific to this particular disease, and easily remedied, but sorry if I'm not convinced about the rest.
    Your remarks are unbelievably callous. Did you just come back from spring break?

  18. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    Ah yes, the predictable snarky comment. 'There are of course others', yes there are, but the numbers themselves would indicate not that many. Most people are asymptomatic. And it's the same demographic that's normally in and out of the hospital system...with pre-existing conditions.

    I can understand a shortage of ventilators, something specific to this particular disease, and easily remedied, but sorry if I'm not convinced about the rest.
    See Post #3 up thread, as well as a few of the following ones. Read the whole thread, it has been said before--there's lots of good info. You got Snark for a response, because you felt you didn't read what was already said about why caution was justified--and make proclamations about overreacting.

    Lots of people can be asymptomatic....but people who get sick--get very sick, and don't get well overnight. Equipment supplies are short, as well. Companies are offering to jump in and make ventilators--but the tooling time for such industrial medical-grade efforts is measured in months not days or even weeks...when the need is immediate.

    It doesn't help that people blow the danger off and go about their business...like Rand Paul, who went about for a solid week doing his normal daily life--being a carrier and spreading the disease all the while. He and his Dear Old Dad, being lead cheerleaders about it all being a "liberal hoax". COVID19 has a sense of irony.
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  19. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    Ah yes, the predictable snarky comment. 'There are of course others', yes there are, but the numbers themselves would indicate not that many.
    Odd that someone with a user name that references a theory of physics, in the heavy math even for physics areas of superstring theory, has problems with simple math.

    Are you familiar with R0?

    That is the basic reproduction number of a disease. For the flu, that is 1.3, meaning that people with the flu will give it to 1.3 people on average. After a chain of 10 transmissions, that first case has grown to about 14.

    The R0 for the novel corona virus is usually put at 2.5, but a recent high quality evaluation in the UK puts it more like 3.0, and if it is 3.0 then one case, after a chain of 10 transmissions, becomes..... around 59,000 people.

    If it is 2.5, then the chain of ten produces just under 10,000 cases. So, 14, compared to 10,000 or 60,000. Three orders of magnitude difference there. I hope you can see why social distancing measures, to break the chains of transmission, are more important for the corona virus than for influenza viruses. Lowering the number of transmissions from each case lowers the R0.

    The mortality rate for Covid19 is at least 10x higher than the flu. Using 0.1% and 1.0% as the estimates. So, an order of magnitude more deadly.

    The disease spreads WAY faster, and is WAY more deadly.

    I give you those numbers. I can't make you think about them or understand what they mean, only you can do that work.
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Odd that someone with a user name that references a theory of physics, in the heavy math even for physics areas of superstring theory, has problems with simple math.

    Are you familiar with R0?

    That is the basic reproduction number of a disease. For the flu, that is 1.3, meaning that people with the flu will give it to 1.3 people on average. After a chain of 10 transmissions, that first case has grown to about 14.

    The R0 for the novel corona virus is usually put at 2.5, but a recent high quality evaluation in the UK puts it more like 3.0, and if it is 3.0 then one case, after a chain of 10 transmissions, becomes..... around 59,000 people.

    If it is 2.5, then the chain of ten produces just under 10,000 cases. So, 14, compared to 10,000 or 60,000. Three orders of magnitude difference there. I hope you can see why social distancing measures, to break the chains of transmission, are more important for the corona virus than for influenza viruses. Lowering the number of transmissions from each case lowers the R0.

    The mortality rate for Covid19 is at least 10x higher than the flu. Using 0.1% and 1.0% as the estimates. So, an order of magnitude more deadly.

    The disease spreads WAY faster, and is WAY more deadly.

    I give you those numbers. I can't make you think about them or understand what they mean, only you can do that work.
    You're a gullible fool pretending to be wise, using simple statistics of epidemiology, the premises of which, in this instance, are inherently flawed, because there is an agenda behind all of the data of which you are being fed. In Germany, where the testing is more extensive the death rate is lower than 0.5%, and even that's inflated. In Italy, the numbers are statistical nonsense, same here in the U.S. where they are primarily testing only people with symptoms...and not the vast majority of those who are asymptomatic.

    I can't make you believe that this was all planned as an excuse to crack-down and repeal all of our basic freedoms, all within just a few days. You won't believe when I tell you that Bill Gates ran a simulation scenario of a corona virus pandemic in 2010 that followed the exact trajectory of the present outbreak. With exactly the same media coverage...with the media lauding China for it's authoritarian lockdown of it's citizens...as an example/model for the rest of the world. I can't convince you that, without just cause, 2.5 billion people are presently under 'house arrest', with forced vaccinations yet to come. I can't convince you that, without good cause. the entire world economy has been shut down, tens of millions of people unemployed overnight now hoping for a Govt handout just to survive.

    And all of this due to contrived statistics for what may otherwise have passed for a normal flu season.

    I can only hope that you'll have a more open mind when the crackdowns impacts you and yours. Till then, I will pray for your enlightenment.

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    You're a gullible fool pretending to be wise, using simple statistics of epidemiology, the premises of which, in this instance, are inherently flawed, because there is an agenda behind all of the data ...
    OIC. Conspiracy. And ignoring the well developed science that focuses on disease spread to hang on to your paranoid world view.

    Sorry, I don't argue with people who have certain issues that may or may not rise to the clinical level.

    Have a nice day.
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  22. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    You're a gullible fool pretending to be wise, using simple statistics of epidemiology, the premises of which, in this instance, are inherently flawed, because there is an agenda behind all of the data of which you are being fed. In Germany, where the testing is more extensive the death rate is lower than 0.5%, and even that's inflated. In Italy, the numbers are statistical nonsense, same here in the U.S. where they are primarily testing only people with symptoms...and not the vast majority of those who are asymptomatic.

    I can't make you believe that this was all planned as an excuse to crack-down and repeal all of our basic freedoms, all within just a few days. You won't believe when I tell you that Bill Gates ran a simulation scenario of a corona virus pandemic in 2010 that followed the exact trajectory of the present outbreak. With exactly the same media coverage...with the media lauding China for it's authoritarian lockdown of it's citizens...as an example/model for the rest of the world. I can't convince you that, without just cause, 2.5 billion people are presently under 'house arrest', with forced vaccinations yet to come. I can't convince you that, without good cause. the entire world economy has been shut down, tens of millions of people unemployed overnight now hoping for a Govt handout just to survive.

    And all of this due to contrived statistics for what may otherwise have passed for a normal flu season.

    I can only hope that you'll have a more open mind when the crackdowns impacts you and yours. Till then, I will pray for your enlightenment.
    I'll trade you some ammo for toilet paper.

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    I can't make you believe that this was all planned as an excuse to crack-down and repeal all of our basic freedoms, all within just a few days.

    You won't believe when I tell you that Bill Gates ran a simulation scenario of a corona virus pandemic in 2010 that followed the exact trajectory of the present outbreak.
    I can't convince you that, without just cause, 2.5 billion people are presently under 'house arrest', with forced vaccinations yet to come.
    I can't convince you that, without good cause. the entire world economy has been shut down, tens of millions of people unemployed overnight now hoping for a Govt handout just to survive.
    I'm ready.... make me believe. Surely you have evidence to convince me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    I'm ready.... make me believe. Surely you have evidence to convince me.
    Thinking M might have more fun with that in Politics Only. As will others.
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  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Thinking M might have more fun with that in Politics Only. As will others.
    Damn it, Hoo, don't encourage them! We don't have nearly enough tinfoil in PO to go around as it is (several members have started hoarding).
    More Americans wanted Hillary Clinton to be President than wanted Donald Trump.

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