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  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by xxl View Post
    Damn it, Hoo, don't encourage them! We don't have nearly enough tinfoil in PO to go around as it is (several members have started hoarding).
    I'm just doing my part to keep you busy, since you probably obey the lockdown THEY want you to follow.
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  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    You're a gullible fool pretending to be wise, using simple statistics of epidemiology, the premises of which, in this instance, are inherently flawed, because there is an agenda behind all of the data of which you are being fed. In Germany, where the testing is more extensive the death rate is lower than 0.5%, and even that's inflated. In Italy, the numbers are statistical nonsense, same here in the U.S. where they are primarily testing only people with symptoms...and not the vast majority of those who are asymptomatic.

    I can't make you believe that this was all planned as an excuse to crack-down and repeal all of our basic freedoms, all within just a few days. You won't believe when I tell you that Bill Gates ran a simulation scenario of a corona virus pandemic in 2010 that followed the exact trajectory of the present outbreak. With exactly the same media coverage...with the media lauding China for it's authoritarian lockdown of it's citizens...as an example/model for the rest of the world. I can't convince you that, without just cause, 2.5 billion people are presently under 'house arrest', with forced vaccinations yet to come. I can't convince you that, without good cause. the entire world economy has been shut down, tens of millions of people unemployed overnight now hoping for a Govt handout just to survive.

    And all of this due to contrived statistics for what may otherwise have passed for a normal flu season.

    I can only hope that you'll have a more open mind when the crackdowns impacts you and yours. Till then, I will pray for your enlightenment.
    who says there's no humorous side to pandemics...?

    you, sir, are an absolute hoot!
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  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by pmf View Post
    I'll trade you some ammo for toilet paper.
    This was my first laugh for the day--thanks!
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  4. #79
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    Add to Len's comment--from Andrew Cuomo's briefing today--it also seems (according to his summary of what is happening in NYC)--the longer you are on a ventilator, the less likely it seems that you will recover...

    I think M-theory should come to NY and volunteer--I don't think you can exaggerate this pandemic. And as far as treatment--the simple explanation is that hospitals get overwhelmed because of the sheer numbers--multiple stories in the NYTimes talk about EMT workers having to triage on the spot, deciding who goes to the hospitals and who doesn't, medical professionals sleeping in their cars to avoid transmitting the virus to their families, deaths among health care professionals, people dying in corridors before they can get placed into rooms etc...

    Probably the best part of Cuomo's briefing was that they have hammered out an agreement to integrate the response between the private and public hospital systems, and between upstate and downstate--and hopefully can do load balancing, as well as supplies and equipment sharing between all hospitals.

    Fingers crossed moreons--NY is first, and it will be a bumpy ride. Stay safe, and we'll see you down the road.

    Here's a NYTimes picture of the line for walk-ins--well enough to walk in!!!--at Elmhurst in Queens--who have been overwhelmed for over a week..
    Elmhurst.jpg
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  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    Add to Len's comment--from Andrew Cuomo's briefing today--it also seems (according to his summary of what is happening in NYC)--the longer you are on a ventilator, the less likely it seems that you will recover...

    I think M-theory should come to NY and volunteer--I don't think you can exaggerate this pandemic. And as far as treatment--the simple explanation is that hospitals get overwhelmed because of the sheer numbers--multiple stories in the NYTimes talk about EMT workers having to triage on the spot, deciding who goes to the hospitals and who doesn't, medical professionals sleeping in their cars to avoid transmitting the virus to their families, deaths among health care professionals, people dying in corridors before they can get placed into rooms etc...

    Probably the best part of Cuomo's briefing was that they have hammered out an agreement to integrate the response between the private and public hospital systems, and between upstate and downstate--and hopefully can do load balancing, as well as supplies and equipment sharing between all hospitals.

    Fingers crossed moreons--NY is first, and it will be a bumpy ride. Stay safe, and we'll see you down the road.

    Here's a NYTimes picture of the line for walk-ins--well enough to walk in!!!--at Elmhurst in Queens--who have been overwhelmed for over a week..
    Elmhurst.jpg
    Moving folks that are hospitalized for reasons other than COVID to hospitals outside the city might make sense. One the free up beds but also to reduce their chance of exposure. I believe that is the plan with USNS Comfort. I think the folks in cities that have not yet been hit hard should be looking very carefully at what is happening in NYC. To be honest if I had some symptoms, but didn't feel that bad, I dont think I go wait in line with folks that have been exposed to find out if I had it. If you didn't have it before getting in that line, you have it now

  6. #81
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    Yes--the plan is to use the emergency hospital that the Army Core built inside the Javits Convention Center, and the recently arrived US hospital ship Mercy as overflow hospitals for non-Covid cases. Hopefully that can limit exposure to Covid for those folks.

    For now it sounds like they may bring some medical professionals from upstate into New York--and maybe load balance later.
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  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtox View Post
    who says there's no humorous side to pandemics...?

    you, sir, are an absolute hoot!

    Thanks!

    Numerous experts throughout the world have said exactly what I've alluded to in my earlier posts...that the number of deaths are entirely consistent with NORMAL death rates that occur every year.

    Here's an article that should really tickle your funny bone. And note the credentials of the author.

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/484548-coro...e-die-outcome/

    From the article, 'people are dying with coronavirus, not of it' and from NHS consultant Dr. John Lee "we have yet to see statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world."

    I could spout a lot more numbers and stats from other sources. But after 20 years of a fraudulent 'War on Terror', I would have hoped people would be a bit more skeptical of the main stream narrative. Oh well, apparently not.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    Thanks!

    Numerous experts throughout the world have said exactly what I've alluded to in my earlier posts...that the number of deaths are entirely consistent with NORMAL death rates that occur every year.

    Here's an article that should really tickle your funny bone. And note the credentials of the author.

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/484548-coro...e-die-outcome/

    From the article, 'people are dying with coronavirus, not of it' and from NHS consultant Dr. John Lee "we have yet to see statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world."

    I could spout a lot more numbers and stats from other sources. But after 20 years of a fraudulent 'War on Terror', I would have hoped people would be a bit more skeptical of the main stream narrative. Oh well, apparently not.

    Oh. Boy. Opeds courtesy of the Russia Today--AKA propaganda a la Putin.
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  9. #84
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    RT is pure lies Mtheory

    what is not lies is the Imperial College in UK's research group. They released a report yesterday showing their calculated estimations of infections across 11 nations in Europe:


    A new report out of the Imperial College in London research group has come to the following conclusions:

    Among 11 nations in Europe:
    - between 7 million and 43 million people have already been infected with this virus - within these 11 countries, not globally
    - this amounts to between 2% and 12% of the population of these countries.
    - social distancing for 3 weeks has likely averted 59,000 deaths within these 11 countries.
    - this puts the goal of herd immunity much closer to achievable than is generally thought possible up till now.
    - this is based on epidemiological science, however. Using calculated estimates based on samples and projections, not census-like testing. But these are real experts in a prestigious research group, in conjunction with the WHO and other global health orgs.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...30-03-2020.pdf

    Dr Campbell's take on this explosive report:
    https://youtu.be/c1aoULlMpn0
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  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Oh. Boy. Opeds courtesy of the Russia Today--AKA propaganda a la Putin.
    I'm not saying he would fit right in with some of the characters in Politics Only, but I ain't not sayin' it either.
    In the time of battle you don't rise to the occasion you resort to the level of your conditioning...

  11. #86
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    The link was broken when I tried it. I did watch the video though. I did not hear an explanation of how you reach herd immunity which just small percent of the populations exposed. Did the paper discuss that?

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    The link was broken when I tried it. I did watch the video though. I did not hear an explanation of how you reach herd immunity which just small percent of the populations exposed. Did the paper discuss that?
    the mention of 'herd immunity' is my conjecture. I did not mean to say anywhere has anything close to herd immunity, but instead that places like Europe now have likely had a significant fraction of their population infected, up to 12%. They would need more like 50 or 70% to be properly herd-immune. But that is a lot closer to herd immunity that the official 'known COVID19' numbers which suggest only a fraction of 1% of the populations infected. If the virus continues to slowly spread at such a rate, say 10% of the population per month, then they would reach herd immunity later this year, instead of the suggested 2 years or so.

    The story out of Israel today is that in some ultra orthodox communities, up to 40% of the residents have been infected. Will be interesting to observe the outcomes of that over the next month or so. As foolhardy and deadly as their anti-social-distancing behaviour is, they might just show what % herd immunity is to be with this virus.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...ring/#comments
    Last edited by BCSaltchucker; 04-03-2020 at 11:37 AM.
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  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCSaltchucker View Post
    the mention of 'herd immunity' is my conjecture. I did not mean to say anywhere has anything close to herd immunity, but instead that places like Europe now have likely had a significant fraction of their population infected, up to 12%. They would need more like 50 or 70% to be properly herd-immune. But that is a lot closer to herd immunity that the official 'known COVID19' numbers which suggest only a fraction of 1% of the populations infected. If the virus continues to slowly spread at such a rate, say 10% of the population per month, then they would reach herd immunity later this year, instead of the suggested 2 years or so.

    The story out of Israel today is that in some ultra orthodox communities, up to 40% of the residents have been infected. Will be interesting to observe the outcomes of that over the next month or so. As foolhardy and deadly as their anti-social-distancing behaviour is, they might just show what % herd immunity is to be with this virus.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...ring/#comments
    Sweden seems to be attempting the "ride it out and we'll all be immune" plan. Their numbers are escalating like the rest of Europe; this will be an interesting comparison.

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCSaltchucker View Post


    A new report out of the Imperial College in London research group has come to the following conclusions:

    Among 11 nations in Europe:
    - between 7 million and 43 million people have already been infected with this virus - within these 11 countries, not globally
    - this amounts to between 2% and 12% of the population of these countries.
    - social distancing for 3 weeks has likely averted 59,000 deaths within these 11 countries.
    - this puts the goal of herd immunity much closer to achievable than is generally thought possible up till now.
    - this is based on epidemiological science, however. Using calculated estimates based on samples and projections, not census-like testing. But these are real experts in a prestigious research group, in conjunction with the WHO and other global health orgs.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...30-03-2020.pdf

    Dr Campbell's take on this explosive report:
    https://youtu.be/c1aoULlMpn0
    I watched the video with Dr. Cambell. His conclusion that Italy's death rate is from anywhere from 0.2% to 1.16%, while closer to the truth, is still a bit on the high end. Yes he corrects for the infection rate, but... he is still erroneously taking at face value the number of deaths attributed to having been caused by the coronavirus.

    Dr John Lee's article in 'The Spectator' makes clear that the number of deaths attributed to the virus are grossly exaggerated, easily by a factor of 3x.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...vid-19-deaths-

    Using his reasoning regarding number of deaths, and Cambell's reasoning regarding infection rates, the more accurate death rate due to coronavirus in Italy would have a range from 0.07% to .39%...quite a bit closer to seasonal flu that in years past might have gone unnoticed. And that's in Italy where the average age of coronavirus death is 78 to 81, depending upon the news source, very close to average life expectancy of an Italian citizen anyway.

    (BTW, the article in RT was merely a commentary on Dr. John Lee's article in 'The Spectator' , and there weren't any lies. You, and others on this board, would do well by expanding your sources of news-information. )

  15. #90
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    Duplicate Post...See above..
    Last edited by M-theory; 04-03-2020 at 03:43 PM.

  16. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-theory View Post
    I watched the video with Dr. Cambell. His conclusion that Italy's death rate is from anywhere from 0.2% to 1.16%, while closer to the truth, is still a bit on the high end. Yes he corrects for the infection rate, but... he is still erroneously taking at face value the number of deaths attributed to having been caused by the coronavirus.

    Dr John Lee's article in 'The Spectator' makes clear that the number of deaths attributed to the virus are grossly exaggerated, easily by a factor of 3x.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...vid-19-deaths-

    Using his reasoning regarding number of deaths, and Cambell's reasoning regarding infection rates, the more accurate death rate due to coronavirus in Italy would have a range from 0.07% to .39%...quite a bit closer to seasonal flu that in years past might have gone unnoticed. And that's in Italy where the average age of coronavirus death is 78 to 81, depending upon the news source, very close to average life expectancy of an Italian citizen anyway.

    (BTW, the article in RT was merely a commentary on Dr. John Lee's article in 'The Spectator' , and there weren't any lies. You, and others on this board, would do well by expanding your sources of news-information. )

    Why am I not surprised....The Spectator. A minor-league right-wing british periodical who's biggest claim to any credulity was that Boris Johnson was its editor. Makes sense, I mean you have the entire medical field saying one thing....but you have feel good stories in tabloids that tell you what you want to hear and already agree with anyway.
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  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Why am I not surprised....The Spectator. A minor-league right-wing british periodical who's biggest claim to any credulity was that Boris Johnson was its editor. Makes sense, I mean you have the entire medical field saying one thing....but you have feel good stories in tabloids that tell you what you want to hear and already agree with anyway.
    Marc--did you see this takedown in the New Yorker of Richard Epstein--who had a similar bone-headed article in Reason:

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...administration
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  18. #93
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    Hi Guys
    down the bottom of the world in New Zealand it looks like going into lock-down early is paying off ,we have just got to the half way point of our 4 week lock down and the numbers are dropping, 3 days ago we had 67 new cases yesterday 54 new cases and today 9/4/2020 29 cases here are our latest numbers :1239 cases
    14 in hospital
    1 death
    317 recovered
    we are all hoping that the numbers of new infections keep falling and in 2 weeks we can get back to work and our new normal what ever that will be .Our government had bought in new boarder controls from today ,anybody arriving at our boarder will be put into quarantine for 14 days this should be easy to do as most people arrive buy air.
    will update you later as we progress to a covid 19 free country .Must go for a ride now on our beautiful quite roads :-})

  19. #94
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    My local situation is looking good.

    Metro area of around 100k spanning 2 counties, 1.5 hours from a larger population center with not much in between, people got serious about measures about 2 weeks ago (I'll skip how I know that). But lots of lesser measures before that, including the local schools being closed.

    Current cases 39, with no new cases the past 4 days. Something like 1500 tests done.

    I think we got it shut down just in time to keep it out of our community, in terms of community spread. But it also came here late, which was a huge advantage.

    I still want 10 more days of 0 cases to be sure.
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  20. #95
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    When it comes to numbers, I think the fact that epidemiologists will have GPS phone data, and so change in mobility data, will bring about the most advancement in epidemiology since John Snow took off the Broad Street pump handle.

    That'll help the estimates... next time.
    .
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  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    My local situation is looking good.

    Metro area of around 100k spanning 2 counties, 1.5 hours from a larger population center with not much in between, people got serious about measures about 2 weeks ago (I'll skip how I know that). But lots of lesser measures before that, including the local schools being closed.

    Current cases 39, with no new cases the past 4 days. Something like 1500 tests done.

    I think we got it shut down just in time to keep it out of our community, in terms of community spread. But it also came here late, which was a huge advantage.

    I still want 10 more days of 0 cases to be sure.
    I'm looking at the COVID19 JHU data for my state in my copy of Tableau, where Mr. Potato Head hasn't declared stay-at-home....Upward goes the trend. Of course, most people cannot get tested, and are being told if symptomatic to stay at home and presume you have it.



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  22. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    I'm looking at the COVID19 JHU data for my state in my copy of Tableau, where Mr. Potato Head hasn't declared stay-at-home....Upward goes the trend. Of course, most people cannot get tested, and are being told if symptomatic to stay at home and presume you have it.



    the scaling on that graph is pretty obnoxious

  23. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    When it comes to numbers, I think the fact that epidemiologists will have GPS phone data, and so change in mobility data, will bring about the most advancement in epidemiology since John Snow took off the Broad Street pump handle.

    That'll help the estimates... next time.

    Your post might just win the Award for Most Apt Comparison of the Day.

    Mr. Snow's advancement was met with politically-inspired resistance in his day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_S...al_controversy
    More Americans wanted Hillary Clinton to be President than wanted Donald Trump.

    Donald Trump has never had a wife he didn't cheat on.

    There are 2.6 million covid cases in the United States (as of June 30), five months after Donald Trump said it was "totally under control," and that "it's gonna be just fine."

  24. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finx View Post
    the scaling on that graph is pretty obnoxious
    Guilty as charged, but it was a quick and dirty for my own edification/looking as the default is to 1000s, because the overall dataset and filters/presentation is better at showing high-populated areas--and works well for it...it just gets a bit kludgy for low-density farmland. Debating keeping my registration for Tour de Nebraska, and that exponential trend of growth in confirmed cases is telling me I should probably get my money back now....

    To put it in perspective...many of the entire counties in Nebraska have fewer citizens than entire apartment buildings or college dorms. Arthur county, for example has a total of 460 people living in it as of the last census.
    Last edited by Marc; 04-10-2020 at 09:21 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Current cases 39, with no new cases the past 4 days. Something like 1500 tests done.

    I think we got it shut down just in time to keep it out of our community, in terms of community spread. But it also came here late, which was a huge advantage.

    I still want 10 more days of 0 cases to be sure.
    So, my county, still no new cases. The other county? 3 new cases, over the last 3 days (I did not look for three days).

    So I reset my clock to day 0.
    .
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