Corona virus numbers

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  • 03-19-2020
    Jwiffle
    Corona virus numbers
    Ok, I'm confused on the reporting on the Corona virus. They say all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy. But they are reporting 41,035 cases in Italy at the moment. And 80-85% of cases are mild, so wouldn't require hospitalization. That leaves 8,207 cases requiring hospitalization (going with 20%). In a country with 60 million people.

    Are there really that few hospitals in Italy that they're already overrun with patients? Or is it actually like 3 hospitals in one area, and not the whole country as they're reporting?
  • 03-19-2020
    DrSmile
    I can tell you that here in New Jersey (population 8 million) there are only 1,983 adult intensive care unit hospital beds. Most of those are probably not in isolation wards, but are probably being converted into that as we speak. If 5% of the population falls very ill as expected that would leave 398,000 without beds. More importantly there are not enough necessary medical devices like ventilators available to cover that many beds, so basically people will be left to die if those numbers turn out to be accurate.
  • 03-19-2020
    Marc
    It isn't like hospital beds were empty before COVID19 hit.


    Real actual numbers.... In 2017 Italy had 3.17 hospital beds per 1,000 people. With a 78% occupancy rate. And 12 ICU beds per 100,000 people.

    Real actual numbers. In 2016 (latest numbers I've seen), the USA has 2.77 hospital beds per 1,000 people. 64% occupancy, and 34.7 ICU beds per 100,000



    As you can see...it doesn't take much to overwhelm hospitals when, on average, a majority or supermajority of those beds are full on a Normal Thursday (not during a pandemic). It isn't like any hospital system anywhere keeps hundreds or thousands of empty idle rooms "just in case of pandemic". Particularly in the US where everything is driven by profit-making, AKA scarcity (something is only profitable if it is scarce)....and scarcity is exactly the problem faced during a pandemic (or the US health debacle in general really, story for another time and forum).

    Source data from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._hospital_beds
  • 03-19-2020
    Finx
    Most people that require hospitalization also require respiratory support, and not every bed in every ICU has this.
  • 03-19-2020
    rideit
    To sum up, Jwiffle, we are *probably* fvcked.
  • 03-20-2020
    QuiQuaeQuod
    Well explained, Lounge! Good info, good use of the info.




    A week ago I knew we would hit 10k, and I hoped we could keep it down to 100k.

    Today I know we will hit 100k, and I HOPE we can keep it down to 1-2 million.

    I wish I could rule out 100 million. I don't expect it as of right now, but I can't rule it out.

    BUT, don't freak out about the number spike the next week... increased testing is going to make graphs super scary. When you see that, know that MOST people are doing the right thing now, and that means FEWER new cases this week and going forward, even as the overall numbers spike. Peak spread is over, peak panic has yet to kick in.
  • 03-20-2020
    Marc
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Well explained, Lounge! Good info, good use of the info.




    A week ago I knew we would hit 10k, and I hoped we could keep it down to 100k.

    Today I know we will hit 100k, and I HOPE we can keep it down to 1-2 million.

    I wish I could rule out 100 million. I don't expect it as of right now, but I can't rule it out.

    BUT, don't freak out about the number spike the next week... increased testing is going to make graphs super scary. When you see that, know that MOST people are doing the right thing now, and that means FEWER new cases this week and going forward, even as the overall numbers spike. Peak spread is over, peak panic has yet to kick in.

    Local news last night....

    Nebraska state officials advised that any Joe Schmo who has the (proper) symptoms....stay home and don't bother going to the hospital--just presume you are positive...because Nebraska doesn't have enough tests for frontline workers, and unless your needs are ICU/ER level you are not even going to get tested.
  • 03-20-2020
    NZ 59
    Down the bottom of the world in New Zealand we have 39 cases as of today, boarders were closed today .All the cases have just returned to NZ from over seas ,and so far we have been able to track who they have been in contact with so those people can self isolate for 14 days ,all sports have stopped ,no groups of more than 100 people can be in the same place ... churches are streaming services , lots of company's have staff working from home .We should come out of this okish we are 1200km from our nearest neighboring country , being so isolated from the rest of the world has it's benefits will be interesting to see how it plays out .
  • 03-20-2020
    Jwiffle
    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.
  • 03-20-2020
    xxl
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.

    Italy is one of the oldest countries in Europe, so that is one effect...or would be, if Germany weren't also one of the oldest (cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._age_structure)

    There is a significant community of Chinese textile workers in Italy, since the 1990s. Traveling into and out of the country as people would normally do may have had something to do with transmission (one could check for clusters within Italy, since these workers have tended to be insular).
  • 03-20-2020
    Jay Strongbow
    "Ok, I'm confused on the reporting on the Corona virus. They say all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy. But they are reporting 41,035 cases in Italy at the moment. And 80-85% of cases are mild, so wouldn't require hospitalization. That leaves 8,207 cases requiring hospitalization (going with 20%). In a country with 60 million people."

    People are not doing home testing resulting in "only" 8,207 showing up for a bed. And for every confirmed case who knows how many other other people have showed up. Really hard to fathom not understanding how hospitals are being stretched.


    "Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically?"

    Death in not immediate. There would be no "testing" if it was. Germany could have better health care or something about the average person's genes or it could be the spread started later there. Or if the average age of the person to get it is younger.
  • 03-20-2020
    No Time Toulouse
    I would think that probably EVERYTHING in Germany works better than it does in Italy.
  • 03-20-2020
    bradkay
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    I would think that probably EVERYTHING in Germany works better than it does in Italy.


    It's the classic stereotype exemplified by this old joke:

    European Heaven
    The police are British
    The mechanics are Germans
    The cooks are Italian
    The lovers are French
    And it's organized by the Swiss

    European Hell
    The police are German
    The mechanics are French
    The cooks are British
    The lovers are Swiss
    And it's organized by the Italians


    Bad stereotyping, I know...
  • 03-20-2020
    DaveG
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.

    There have been many articles about this. One, as was mentioned, is they have an older population. They also have a high percentage of smokers which causes more cases to go severe. And then there is how quickly it spread. While I was probably in the "not that big a deal" camp" 2 weeks ago I think the more drastic actions are fully necessary. Its possible that there is no way to stop it and we just slow it down. The Spanish flu ended after it infected one third of the world population and just ran out of susceptible people to infect.
  • 03-20-2020
    J.R.
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jay Strongbow View Post
    "Ok, I'm confused on the reporting on the Corona virus. They say all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy. But they are reporting 41,035 cases in Italy at the moment. And 80-85% of cases are mild, so wouldn't require hospitalization. That leaves 8,207 cases requiring hospitalization (going with 20%). In a country with 60 million people."

    People are not doing home testing resulting in "only" 8,207 showing up for a bed. And for every confirmed case who knows how many other other people have showed up. Really hard to fathom not understanding how hospitals are being stretched.


    "Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically?"

    Death in not immediate. There would be no "testing" if it was. Germany could have better health care or something about the average person's genes or it could be the spread started later there. Or if the average age of the person to get it is younger.

    I can't find it now, but I'm pretty sure I saw somewhere that in Italy they were only testing people who needed medical care/hospitalization.
  • 03-20-2020
    Akirasho
    A does not lead to B.

    The systems in much counties are fragile and operate under "best conditions" not Worst case... fragile.
  • 03-20-2020
    rideit
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    There have been many articles about this. One, as was mentioned, is they have an older population. They also have a high percentage of smokers which causes more cases to go severe. And then there is how quickly it spread. While I was probably in the "not that big a deal" camp" 2 weeks ago I think the more drastic actions are fully necessary. Its possible that there is no way to stop it and we just slow it down. The Spanish flu ended after it infected one third of the world population and just ran out of susceptible people to infect.

    What I never understood about that is why it didnít like the other 2/3rds.
  • 03-20-2020
    DaveG
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    What I never understood about that is why it didnít like the other 2/3rds.

    Some people had a natural immunity to it. I remember watching a documentary about Bubonic plague. There were some folks that did not get it or had a mild form even when they lived with family member that had it and died. They were ably examine chromosomes from descendants of theses people. What they found was the folks that survived had some sort of chromosome mutation that matched people today that have an immunity to AIDS. They claimed that maybe 10% of Europeans are immune to AIDS due to this. Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out
  • 03-20-2020
    bradkay
    "Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out"

    Maybe nature is making a big mistake... considering how the human race has been treating nature.
  • 03-21-2020
    Akirasho
    1 Attachment(s)
    Example:

    This is how many IV pumps I needed last year. I taxed the hospital's supply of machines.Attachment 327271Attachment 327271

    Hospitals have far lest respirator capacity.
  • 03-21-2020
    Finx
    I was going to start a new thread for this, but this seems like a good place.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...bruary/608521/

    It's a long article, but worth a read.

    I think he may be sensationalizing a bit, but it demonstrates , well, a lot of things. Lot's good takeaways.

    BTW, if you are looking for a good source for reliable (but somewhat technical) info about the virus and it's spread, check out Trevor Bedford on Twitter (he's one of the primary sources of data for that article).
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    Some people had a natural immunity to it. I remember watching a documentary about Bubonic plague. There were some folks that did not get it or had a mild form even when they lived with family member that had it and died. They were ably examine chromosomes from descendants of theses people. What they found was the folks that survived had some sort of chromosome mutation that matched people today that have an immunity to AIDS. They claimed that maybe 10% of Europeans are immune to AIDS due to this. Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out

    No--no "immunity"--this is a brand new virus--hence "novel corona virus". Brand new. This is the reason why it is so virulent--there are NO built up antibodies--in anyone, anywhere. As of now, it is not clear if you can get reinfected--it appears that you may be protected for a short period after beating an infection, but the jury's still out on that one. (And "plague" was bacteria--different ball game entirely).

    What is happening though is a fairly large group are getting infected--but remaining asymptomatic--but of course the virus goes through the same cycle in their bodies as with those who show symptoms--AND--they are contagious for the whole time just like those showing symptoms. And the percentage can be high--I have read a number as high as 70%!!!!

    This is the real weakness in testing only those with symptoms which is what they started with in New York--you leave a ton of people walking around showing no symptoms who are busy infecting others like crazy.

    Korea--who look to be one of the few countries who controlled their epidemic--tested EVERYONE who was known to have been exposed to the virus. And quarantined everyone who was infected. And were able to trace outbreaks and who infected people had been in contact with.

    Not so in the US, where public officials had their collective heads up their collective asses for months.

    New York started testing in earnest ONLY THIS WEEK--and there are now 20,000 cases--and they are still only testing those with symptoms or those that KNOW they have come in contact with someone infected.

    That leaves a hoard of asymptomatic zombie carriers EVERYWHERE.
  • 03-21-2020
    DaveG
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    No--no "immunity"--this is a brand new virus--hence "novel corona virus"--this one is brand new. This is the reason why it is so virulent--there are NO built up antibodies--in anyone. As of now, it is not clear if you can get reinfected--it appears that you may be protected for a short period after beating an infection, but the jury's still out on that one.

    What is happening though is a fairly large group are getting infected--but remaining asymptomatic--but of course the virus goes through the same cycle in their bodies as with those who show symptoms--AND--they are contagious for the whole time just like those showing symptoms. And the percentage can be high--I have read a number as high as 70%!!!!

    This is the real weakness in testing only those with symptoms which is what they started with in New York--you leave a ton of people walking around showing no symptoms who are busy infecting others like crazy.

    Korea--who look to be one of the few countries who controlled their epidemic--tested EVERYONE. And quarantined everyone who was infected. And were able to trace outbreaks and who infected people had been in contact with.

    Not so in the US, where public officials had their collective heads up their collective asses for months.

    New York started testing in earnest ONLY THIS WEEK--and there are now 20,000 cases--and they are still only testing those with symptoms or those that KNOW they have come in contact with someone infected.

    That leaves a hoard of asymptomatic zombie carriers EVERYWHERE.

    There is clearly a different reaction to the disease among different people so while no one may be totally immune there is something that makes them less susceptible. Korea did not test "everyone". They did test a lot more folks than other countries (270,000 tested out of 51 million people) and that seemed to help. The also put in measures that might be impossible to implement in the US and other western nations as they involved tracking people using the phone and other measures that might be considered extreme government intrusion. The reality is this lock-down does not stop the disease, it just slows it down. There is no guarantee that less people will get sick overall. But with more time comes possible treatments and slowing of the need for medical care. A likely scenario is that a high percentage of us will eventually get this thing no matter what
  • 03-21-2020
    DaveG
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bradkay View Post
    "Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out"

    Maybe nature is making a big mistake... considering how the human race has been treating nature.


    In 4 billion years or so the Sun will become a red giant and incinerate the Earth, so we were already on borrowed time
  • 03-21-2020
    rideit
    Once again, though, only 1/3 of the planet contracted the Spanish Flu, and there were (?) ~ 50 million deaths. Took 18 months to do that.
  • 03-21-2020
    DaveG
    The downside of the current "flatten the curve" approach is that unless there is a vaccine, it will lengthen the time of the crisis. At some point we will have to make a decision. Go back to work and accept that people will get sick or hunker down and completely destroy what is left of the economy. Things like treatment options and infection rate will be part of the equation
  • 03-21-2020
    Marc
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    The downside of the current "flatten the curve" approach is that unless there is a vaccine, it will lengthen the time of the crisis. At some point we will have to make a decision. Go back to work and accept that people will get sick or hunker down and completely destroy what is left of the economy. Things like treatment options and infection rate will be part of the equation


    The upside...it lessens the instant overwhelm of medical personnel and equipment. The US has a total of 900,000 hospital beds nationwide. And nationwide we have about 100,000 ICU beds....and normally those beds are 65% full or so. And that is just beds, never mind extra needed/wanted equipment in limited supply.

    The alternative to "flatten the curve", and giving time to maybe get more equipment/personnel/space active.....


    Is a complete and utter LA-at-rush-hour traffic jam of all medical facilities in the US for who knows how long as everything is swamped and overrun. Remember, much of the US landmass doesn't have a hospital within 2 hours drive. "Go back to work" almost inevitably means Option B and lots of people dying for lack of supplies/space...because the Dow Jones Average is more important than lives.
  • 03-21-2020
    rideit
    I donít trust Fox, but this is sobering.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavir...an-hour-in-nyc
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    There is clearly a different reaction to the disease among different people so while no one may be totally immune there is something that makes them less susceptible. Korea did not test "everyone". They did test a lot more folks than other countries (270,000 tested out of 51 million people) and that seemed to help. The also put in measures that might be impossible to implement in the US and other western nations as they involved tracking people using the phone and other measures that might be considered extreme government intrusion. The reality is this lock-down does not stop the disease, it just slows it down. There is no guarantee that less people will get sick overall. But with more time comes possible treatments and slowing of the need for medical care. A likely scenario is that a high percentage of us will eventually get this thing no matter what

    Agreed--Korea did not test everyone, but they followed proper epidemiological protocols--started with known cases, tracked down all who had been exposed and tested everyone they could confirm had been exposed. (At least until Patient 31 got loose and personally infected and estimated 1000 people and blew the lid off containment.)

    The US did not do this, except in the first outbreak in New Rochelle where they traced a whole (first large) series of infections in NY to a single carrier who infected people both at work and at a Jewish gathering. Some of the same work was done in Washington State--but once it became multiple points of origin, the health departments were no longer able to trace these chains of infection.

    Rough numbers:

    Quote:

    Jan 20 - the day that both the US and S. Korea identified their 1st COVID-19 patient.

    Between then and Mar 15, South Korea tested ~270,000 people, set up a stringent isolation program, and implemented a program to track the carrier vectors which suppressed the rate of infection substantially. The US tested 25,000 and set up an isolation program driven by individual state mandate. We continue to double the infection rate every <2.5 days.
    Let's be clear--if you have sufficient exposure, you will be infected. At that point there are clearly different reactions to the disease as far as severity is concerned--which may be what you are saying--on which everyone agrees.

    Now the two questions are--

    (!) at that point, will you be infected and asymptomatic? (and no good science on this);
    (2) will the disease progress to the point that you will require going on a ventilator etc, and/or will it be fatal?

    On these questions--there is evidence from China that the young are both more likely to be asymptomatic (although still carriers of the infection), AND if they get it, they are less likely to succumb to the illness.

    The strongest correlation (although the causality is NOT clear) is that fatalities skew older, and seem to be related to pre-existing conditions, especially hypertension, ie high blood pressure.

    The best short video is this interview with Anthony Fauci--answering the common questions about the COVID-19:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXY76TKNy2Y
  • 03-21-2020
    Akirasho
    early in the 20th century, US forest service was hell bent on putting out fires until we realized the "normal" of fires... but we still build in fire zones.

    Politicians ask science to give time frames that are arbitrary... In 30 days the virus will say "you needed 32 days".


    News anchors on TV sitting apart to in separate studios to linked for home. The rise of "Skynet" for robotics in the workforce with our rush for a cure creating a zombie apocalypse... and an invasion from space of killer klowns. A wash if it get rids us of POTUS??? Go 2020!!!!
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.

    No genetic component that anyone is aware of. As I stressed in my other post--no one has antibodies for this because it is new; ergo, anyone who is exposed sufficiently will be infected. Full stop.

    I suspect the German numbers will climb as their serious cases progress. But has been the case (as reported by the news) that Italy did have severe shortages of ventilators, and were having to triage by simply not putting the very old (and those with underlying conditions--ie the least likely to survive) on ventilators. Maybe Germany had more available, or their epidemic is progressing slower?
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    On the seriousness of the asymptomatic population, this report from Italy put the percentage of people infected but WHO SHOW NO SYMPTOMS between 50 and 70%:

    "Coronavirus: "Il 50-75% dei casi a Vo' sono asintomatici. Una formidabile fonte di contagio" is the headline; roughly "50-75% of cases in Vo 'are asymptomatic. A formidable source of contagion"

    https://www.repubblica.it/salute/med...C12-P3-S2.4-T1
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    Anyone interested in the numbers--updated frequently--a 17 year old kid in Bellevue WA, got interested when the virus was confined to China (Dec?) and built a website to track the number of infections worldwide. It is the single best source for current stats (!) and everyone is using it.

    He shows Germany at 21,890 cases, 77 fatalities 209 recovered and only 2 serious cases--which really impressive.

    https://ncov2019.live/
  • 03-21-2020
    Jwiffle
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    No genetic component that anyone is aware of. As I stressed in my other post--no one has antibodies for this because it is new; ergo, anyone who is exposed sufficiently will be infected. Full stop.

    I suspect the German numbers will climb as their serious cases progress. But has been the case (as reported by the news) that Italy did have severe shortages of ventilators, and were having to triage by simply not putting the very old (and those with underlying conditions--ie the least likely to survive) on ventilators. Maybe Germany had more available, or their epidemic is progressing slower?

    It is not true that anyone exposed will necessarily get sick. That's not true of any virus. This one isn't the first new virus; and other new viruses haven't made every single person to contact it infected. Even if this one infects a higher percentage, it won't infect everyone who contacts it.
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    It is not true that anyone exposed will necessarily get sick. That's not true of any virus. This one isn't the first new virus; and other new viruses haven't made every single person to contact it infected. Even if this one infects a higher percentage, it won't infect everyone who contacts it.

    It's a complicated question--IRL, you are correct--the closest there is to a real population's (high) rate of infection was the cruise ship--where the infection rate was about 1 in 6 (from memory, lost the link). But even there, the questions of who was directly exposed, for how long, who washed their hands etc etc all bear on the issue of who gets infected.

    I think my statement still stands though--the theoretical infection rate is 100%--since we have no antibodies to combat this infection (novel; new) everyone potentially can be infected. And yes, we have had other new viruses--but from what I can glean from reading and listening to the talking heads--we have never had one this virulent, at least since the "Spanish" flu.

    And that story is instructive--because there were no antibodies for it (and no treatment), it continued to circle the globe ( I seem to recall the estimate was three times?) and infect more people in areas where it had already been active, since there was no basic immunity in any population--just because you might have missed it the first time, you might not be so lucky the second or third time. And there is at least some who believe that a precursor version--but less virulent--had been in the wild some twenty or so years before, so that some portion of the population did have immunity.

    Unless they come up with a vaccine this is likely to be the case with this one as well, I think. (My one friend who is a Doc is already pushing herself to the limit at Montefiore in the Bronx, so I can't have my usual chat with an expert to clarify my thinking...)

    A few other tidbits--one is that this is the type of virus that contains pattern checking, r proof-reading--so less likely to mutate in the wild and become more treatable. It also appears that if you are infected, you are casting off infection to those around you almost immediately--even if it takes you the average 4 days to show symptoms. That's true of those who remain asymptomatic through the whole infection I believe.

    The third bit is--whatever the official number, because of the lag in testing what is being reported is much, much lower--conversely, as the testing ramps up, the number of cases will appear to grow like crazy (as we have just seen in NY)--but you are now seeing the official numbers catching up to the real numbers out in the wild as the testing ramps up. Best discussion of that is here:

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
  • 03-21-2020
    Jay Strongbow
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    It is not true that anyone exposed will necessarily get sick. That's not true of any virus. This one isn't the first new virus; and other new viruses haven't made every single person to contact it infected. Even if this one infects a higher percentage, it won't infect everyone who contacts it.

    He said "who is exposed sufficiently"

    So off course he's correct. That's what sufficiently means. As I would be correct in saying I'll win the Boston marathon if I train sufficiently. Am I willing and able physically? Hell no. But I said 'sufficiently' so I'm correct.


    Maybe he's an attorney. It's classic wording to try an deliver a certain message but actually saying nothing in case you get called on it.
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jay Strongbow View Post
    He said "who is exposed sufficiently"

    So off course he's correct. That's what sufficiently means. As I would be correct in saying I'll win the Boston marathon if I train sufficiently. Am I willing and able physically? Hell no. But I said 'sufficiently' so I'm correct.


    Maybe he's an attorney. It's classic wording to try an deliver a certain message but actually saying nothing in case you get called on it.

    Not an attorney--just an unemployed historian.

    My concern in emphasizing the fact that anyone of us can potentially be infected is that I have been seeing a lot of carelessness IRL on the part of people who have not grasped the seriousness of this epidemic. The kids at the beaches being the most obvious--but it is much more widespread than that.

    My current pet peeve--people are using the blue disposable gloves (Good)--and then doffing them outside stores and tossing them on the ground--WTF? Who do they think will have to pick those up and dispose of them?
  • 03-21-2020
    paredown
    Cruise ship story is here:

    Quote:

    As of February 22, 2020, two days after the scheduled two-week quarantine came to an end, a total of 621 symptomatic and asymptomatic people including one quarantine officer, one nurse and one administrative officer tested positive for COVID-19 out of the 3711 passengers and crew members on board.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...68042720300063
  • 03-21-2020
    EverydayRide
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    Snip
    My current pet peeve--people are using the blue disposable gloves (Good)--and then doffing them outside stores and tossing them on the ground--WTF? Who do they think will have to pick those up and dispose of them?

    ^^^
    How many novice even know how to remove them?

    https://www.fairview.org/hlimg/krames/377297.jpg
  • 03-22-2020
    Jay Strongbow
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    Not an attorney--just an unemployed historian.

    My concern in emphasizing the fact that anyone of us can potentially be infected is that I have been seeing a lot of carelessness IRL on the part of people who have not grasped the seriousness of this epidemic. The kids at the beaches being the most obvious--but it is much more widespread than that.

    My current pet peeve--people are using the blue disposable gloves (Good)--and then doffing them outside stores and tossing them on the ground--WTF? Who do they think will have to pick those up and dispose of them?

    I get your point.

    I can offer one anecdote that might make you feel a little better: I am definitely NOT the type of person that has historically paid a lot of attention fear of virus, germs ect. And at age 54 changing habits of no longer one of my strong point.

    And I definitely 100% 'get it' now.

    I live in downtown Boston is a crowded (usually) neighborhood and it looks obvious that my fellow residents and would-be tourists 'get it' also for the most part.
  • 03-23-2020
    paredown
    moved below...nope can't do that:

    FWIW--another data point on transmission rates--a party in Connecticut with 50 guests on March 5th, and more than half of the guests test positive for the Covid-19 virus. (And as the Brits are saying, this is not casual contact but extended exposure--they are saying 2 hrs of contact). And this group probably singlehandedly vaulted this little town in CT into the lead for the most cases in the state:

    "Westport, a town of 28,000 on the Long Island Sound, did not have a single known case of the coronavirus on the day of the party. It had 85 on Monday, up more than 40-fold in 11 days."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/u...arty-zero.html
  • 03-23-2020
    Retro Grouch
    Hawaii has a rough road ahead. An isolated population in the middle of a vast ocean. It is sobering to read how few ventilators the state has for a population of 1.4 million residents. I am not even counting the tourists that remain on the island.

    So far, 48 COVID cases and counting.

    https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/03/ar...or-a-pandemic/

    Quote:

    Hawaiiís hospitals own a collective 561 ventilators, with the bulk of them on Oahu.

    Neighbor islands have the shortest stock of ventilators: Kauai County has 18 ventilators, Maui County has 27, and Hawaii Island has 39.
  • 03-23-2020
    Opus51569
    A little something extra to be outraged about...

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/christopher...igin=flipboard

    'cuz we didn't have enough yet.

    Then there's governor Tate Reeves in Mississippi, substituting bible study and prayers for leadership...

    https://hillreporter.com/gop-governo...s-mayors-62154
  • 03-24-2020
    paredown
    More reading--this is important (and clearly I overstated the claim that everyone exposed will get the disease.) Unfortunately the body of this paper concentrates on the differential response among patients who do--the severity of the infection, but is interesting nonetheless:

    Quote:

    Scientists and clinicians have learned much of coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, and its pathogenesis [1]: not all people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 are infected and not all infected patients develop severe respiratory illness. Accordingly, SARS-CoV-2 infection can be roughly divided into three stages: stage I, an asymptomatic incubation period with or without detectable virus; stage II, non-severe symptomatic period with the presence of virus; stage III, severe respiratory symptomatic stage with high viral load [2]. From the point of view of prevention, individuals at stage I, the stealth carriers, are the least manageable because, at least on some occasions, they spread the virus unknowingly: indeed, the first asymptomatic transmission has been reported in Germany [3]. The role of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in disseminating the infection remains to be defined.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41418-020-0530-3
  • 03-24-2020
    DaveG
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    More reading--this is important (and clearly I overstated the claim that everyone exposed will get the disease.) Unfortunately the body of this paper concentrates on the differential response among patients who do--the severity of the infection, but is interesting nonetheless:



    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41418-020-0530-3

    I was seeing on the news today that doctor's are working on a test that can tell if you have HAD (past tense) the virus. That would be helpful in that those folks could be released from some of the restrictions. I could also substantially lower the real mortality rate
  • 03-24-2020
    pmf
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bradkay View Post
    It's the classic stereotype exemplified by this old joke:

    European Heaven
    The police are British
    The mechanics are Germans
    The cooks are Italian
    The lovers are French
    And it's organized by the Swiss

    European Hell
    The police are German
    The mechanics are French
    The cooks are British
    The lovers are Swiss
    And it's organized by the Italians


    Bad stereotyping, I know...

    The perfect war ...

    American equipment
    German troops
    British officers
    French food
    And the Italians for the enemy
  • 03-24-2020
    DaveG
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmf View Post
    The perfect war ...

    American equipment
    German troops
    British officers
    French food
    And the Italians for the enemy

    Wouldn't the French for the enemy be better? Not a single shot would need to be fired
  • 03-24-2020
    xxl
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    Wouldn't the French for the enemy be better? Not a single shot would need to be fired

    Gil would like a word with you...

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Lafayette.PNG
  • 03-24-2020
    Marc
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmf View Post
    The perfect war ...

    American equipment
    German troops
    British officers
    French food
    And the Italians for the enemy

    Reminds me of a joke that starts...."Stormtroopers or Red-Shirts, who would win?"
  • 03-24-2020
    rudge66
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by xxl View Post

    Damm Fine Painting !
    Got any Test Kit's ,Bed's, or Ventilator's ? This is a serious Pandemic !