Corona virus numbers
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  1. #1
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    Corona virus numbers

    Ok, I'm confused on the reporting on the Corona virus. They say all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy. But they are reporting 41,035 cases in Italy at the moment. And 80-85% of cases are mild, so wouldn't require hospitalization. That leaves 8,207 cases requiring hospitalization (going with 20%). In a country with 60 million people.

    Are there really that few hospitals in Italy that they're already overrun with patients? Or is it actually like 3 hospitals in one area, and not the whole country as they're reporting?
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    I can tell you that here in New Jersey (population 8 million) there are only 1,983 adult intensive care unit hospital beds. Most of those are probably not in isolation wards, but are probably being converted into that as we speak. If 5% of the population falls very ill as expected that would leave 398,000 without beds. More importantly there are not enough necessary medical devices like ventilators available to cover that many beds, so basically people will be left to die if those numbers turn out to be accurate.
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    It isn't like hospital beds were empty before COVID19 hit.


    Real actual numbers.... In 2017 Italy had 3.17 hospital beds per 1,000 people. With a 78% occupancy rate. And 12 ICU beds per 100,000 people.

    Real actual numbers. In 2016 (latest numbers I've seen), the USA has 2.77 hospital beds per 1,000 people. 64% occupancy, and 34.7 ICU beds per 100,000



    As you can see...it doesn't take much to overwhelm hospitals when, on average, a majority or supermajority of those beds are full on a Normal Thursday (not during a pandemic). It isn't like any hospital system anywhere keeps hundreds or thousands of empty idle rooms "just in case of pandemic". Particularly in the US where everything is driven by profit-making, AKA scarcity (something is only profitable if it is scarce)....and scarcity is exactly the problem faced during a pandemic (or the US health debacle in general really, story for another time and forum).

    Source data from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._hospital_beds
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    Most people that require hospitalization also require respiratory support, and not every bed in every ICU has this.

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    To sum up, Jwiffle, we are *probably* fvcked.

  6. #6
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    Well explained, Lounge! Good info, good use of the info.




    A week ago I knew we would hit 10k, and I hoped we could keep it down to 100k.

    Today I know we will hit 100k, and I HOPE we can keep it down to 1-2 million.

    I wish I could rule out 100 million. I don't expect it as of right now, but I can't rule it out.

    BUT, don't freak out about the number spike the next week... increased testing is going to make graphs super scary. When you see that, know that MOST people are doing the right thing now, and that means FEWER new cases this week and going forward, even as the overall numbers spike. Peak spread is over, peak panic has yet to kick in.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Well explained, Lounge! Good info, good use of the info.




    A week ago I knew we would hit 10k, and I hoped we could keep it down to 100k.

    Today I know we will hit 100k, and I HOPE we can keep it down to 1-2 million.

    I wish I could rule out 100 million. I don't expect it as of right now, but I can't rule it out.

    BUT, don't freak out about the number spike the next week... increased testing is going to make graphs super scary. When you see that, know that MOST people are doing the right thing now, and that means FEWER new cases this week and going forward, even as the overall numbers spike. Peak spread is over, peak panic has yet to kick in.
    Local news last night....

    Nebraska state officials advised that any Joe Schmo who has the (proper) symptoms....stay home and don't bother going to the hospital--just presume you are positive...because Nebraska doesn't have enough tests for frontline workers, and unless your needs are ICU/ER level you are not even going to get tested.
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    Down the bottom of the world in New Zealand we have 39 cases as of today, boarders were closed today .All the cases have just returned to NZ from over seas ,and so far we have been able to track who they have been in contact with so those people can self isolate for 14 days ,all sports have stopped ,no groups of more than 100 people can be in the same place ... churches are streaming services , lots of company's have staff working from home .We should come out of this okish we are 1200km from our nearest neighboring country , being so isolated from the rest of the world has it's benefits will be interesting to see how it plays out .

  9. #9
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    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.
    Italy is one of the oldest countries in Europe, so that is one effect...or would be, if Germany weren't also one of the oldest (cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._age_structure)

    There is a significant community of Chinese textile workers in Italy, since the 1990s. Traveling into and out of the country as people would normally do may have had something to do with transmission (one could check for clusters within Italy, since these workers have tended to be insular).
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    "Ok, I'm confused on the reporting on the Corona virus. They say all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy. But they are reporting 41,035 cases in Italy at the moment. And 80-85% of cases are mild, so wouldn't require hospitalization. That leaves 8,207 cases requiring hospitalization (going with 20%). In a country with 60 million people."

    People are not doing home testing resulting in "only" 8,207 showing up for a bed. And for every confirmed case who knows how many other other people have showed up. Really hard to fathom not understanding how hospitals are being stretched.


    "Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically?"

    Death in not immediate. There would be no "testing" if it was. Germany could have better health care or something about the average person's genes or it could be the spread started later there. Or if the average age of the person to get it is younger.

  12. #12
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    I would think that probably EVERYTHING in Germany works better than it does in Italy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    I would think that probably EVERYTHING in Germany works better than it does in Italy.

    It's the classic stereotype exemplified by this old joke:

    European Heaven
    The police are British
    The mechanics are Germans
    The cooks are Italian
    The lovers are French
    And it's organized by the Swiss

    European Hell
    The police are German
    The mechanics are French
    The cooks are British
    The lovers are Swiss
    And it's organized by the Italians


    Bad stereotyping, I know...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jwiffle View Post
    Well, I guess I didn't realize hospitals were already so full. Wonder why the disease is not affecting the Germans so much? 14,000 cases, only 31 deaths, putting the percentage down with the regular flu. But crazy high percentage of deaths in Italy. Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically? Even here in the US, the death rate is only like 1/8 of in Italy.
    There have been many articles about this. One, as was mentioned, is they have an older population. They also have a high percentage of smokers which causes more cases to go severe. And then there is how quickly it spread. While I was probably in the "not that big a deal" camp" 2 weeks ago I think the more drastic actions are fully necessary. Its possible that there is no way to stop it and we just slow it down. The Spanish flu ended after it infected one third of the world population and just ran out of susceptible people to infect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Strongbow View Post
    "Ok, I'm confused on the reporting on the Corona virus. They say all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy. But they are reporting 41,035 cases in Italy at the moment. And 80-85% of cases are mild, so wouldn't require hospitalization. That leaves 8,207 cases requiring hospitalization (going with 20%). In a country with 60 million people."

    People are not doing home testing resulting in "only" 8,207 showing up for a bed. And for every confirmed case who knows how many other other people have showed up. Really hard to fathom not understanding how hospitals are being stretched.


    "Germany just have better health care, or just more resistant genetically?"

    Death in not immediate. There would be no "testing" if it was. Germany could have better health care or something about the average person's genes or it could be the spread started later there. Or if the average age of the person to get it is younger.
    I can't find it now, but I'm pretty sure I saw somewhere that in Italy they were only testing people who needed medical care/hospitalization.

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    A does not lead to B.

    The systems in much counties are fragile and operate under "best conditions" not Worst case... fragile.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    There have been many articles about this. One, as was mentioned, is they have an older population. They also have a high percentage of smokers which causes more cases to go severe. And then there is how quickly it spread. While I was probably in the "not that big a deal" camp" 2 weeks ago I think the more drastic actions are fully necessary. Its possible that there is no way to stop it and we just slow it down. The Spanish flu ended after it infected one third of the world population and just ran out of susceptible people to infect.
    What I never understood about that is why it didn’t like the other 2/3rds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    What I never understood about that is why it didn’t like the other 2/3rds.
    Some people had a natural immunity to it. I remember watching a documentary about Bubonic plague. There were some folks that did not get it or had a mild form even when they lived with family member that had it and died. They were ably examine chromosomes from descendants of theses people. What they found was the folks that survived had some sort of chromosome mutation that matched people today that have an immunity to AIDS. They claimed that maybe 10% of Europeans are immune to AIDS due to this. Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out

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    "Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out"

    Maybe nature is making a big mistake... considering how the human race has been treating nature.
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    Example:

    This is how many IV pumps I needed last year. I taxed the hospital's supply of machines.Pump-0817190746-02.jpgPump-0817190746-02.jpg

    Hospitals have far lest respirator capacity.

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    I was going to start a new thread for this, but this seems like a good place.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...bruary/608521/

    It's a long article, but worth a read.

    I think he may be sensationalizing a bit, but it demonstrates , well, a lot of things. Lot's good takeaways.

    BTW, if you are looking for a good source for reliable (but somewhat technical) info about the virus and it's spread, check out Trevor Bedford on Twitter (he's one of the primary sources of data for that article).

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    Some people had a natural immunity to it. I remember watching a documentary about Bubonic plague. There were some folks that did not get it or had a mild form even when they lived with family member that had it and died. They were ably examine chromosomes from descendants of theses people. What they found was the folks that survived had some sort of chromosome mutation that matched people today that have an immunity to AIDS. They claimed that maybe 10% of Europeans are immune to AIDS due to this. Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out
    No--no "immunity"--this is a brand new virus--hence "novel corona virus". Brand new. This is the reason why it is so virulent--there are NO built up antibodies--in anyone, anywhere. As of now, it is not clear if you can get reinfected--it appears that you may be protected for a short period after beating an infection, but the jury's still out on that one. (And "plague" was bacteria--different ball game entirely).

    What is happening though is a fairly large group are getting infected--but remaining asymptomatic--but of course the virus goes through the same cycle in their bodies as with those who show symptoms--AND--they are contagious for the whole time just like those showing symptoms. And the percentage can be high--I have read a number as high as 70%!!!!

    This is the real weakness in testing only those with symptoms which is what they started with in New York--you leave a ton of people walking around showing no symptoms who are busy infecting others like crazy.

    Korea--who look to be one of the few countries who controlled their epidemic--tested EVERYONE who was known to have been exposed to the virus. And quarantined everyone who was infected. And were able to trace outbreaks and who infected people had been in contact with.

    Not so in the US, where public officials had their collective heads up their collective asses for months.

    New York started testing in earnest ONLY THIS WEEK--and there are now 20,000 cases--and they are still only testing those with symptoms or those that KNOW they have come in contact with someone infected.

    That leaves a hoard of asymptomatic zombie carriers EVERYWHERE.
    Last edited by paredown; 03-21-2020 at 12:30 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paredown View Post
    No--no "immunity"--this is a brand new virus--hence "novel corona virus"--this one is brand new. This is the reason why it is so virulent--there are NO built up antibodies--in anyone. As of now, it is not clear if you can get reinfected--it appears that you may be protected for a short period after beating an infection, but the jury's still out on that one.

    What is happening though is a fairly large group are getting infected--but remaining asymptomatic--but of course the virus goes through the same cycle in their bodies as with those who show symptoms--AND--they are contagious for the whole time just like those showing symptoms. And the percentage can be high--I have read a number as high as 70%!!!!

    This is the real weakness in testing only those with symptoms which is what they started with in New York--you leave a ton of people walking around showing no symptoms who are busy infecting others like crazy.

    Korea--who look to be one of the few countries who controlled their epidemic--tested EVERYONE. And quarantined everyone who was infected. And were able to trace outbreaks and who infected people had been in contact with.

    Not so in the US, where public officials had their collective heads up their collective asses for months.

    New York started testing in earnest ONLY THIS WEEK--and there are now 20,000 cases--and they are still only testing those with symptoms or those that KNOW they have come in contact with someone infected.

    That leaves a hoard of asymptomatic zombie carriers EVERYWHERE.
    There is clearly a different reaction to the disease among different people so while no one may be totally immune there is something that makes them less susceptible. Korea did not test "everyone". They did test a lot more folks than other countries (270,000 tested out of 51 million people) and that seemed to help. The also put in measures that might be impossible to implement in the US and other western nations as they involved tracking people using the phone and other measures that might be considered extreme government intrusion. The reality is this lock-down does not stop the disease, it just slows it down. There is no guarantee that less people will get sick overall. But with more time comes possible treatments and slowing of the need for medical care. A likely scenario is that a high percentage of us will eventually get this thing no matter what

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by bradkay View Post
    "Maybe nature does this so the human race can't be wiped out"

    Maybe nature is making a big mistake... considering how the human race has been treating nature.

    In 4 billion years or so the Sun will become a red giant and incinerate the Earth, so we were already on borrowed time

  25. #25
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    Once again, though, only 1/3 of the planet contracted the Spanish Flu, and there were (?) ~ 50 million deaths. Took 18 months to do that.

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