Epidemiology probability question. - Page 2
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  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    .....

    The chance of TWO false positives for the same person at the 1% (1/100) false positive rate is... 1/10,000. So double test 10,000 people, you get 101 double positives, one of which is false. 1/101 = very slightly over 99% sure any given double positive is a true positive.

    Not really a LITTLE better, imo.
    Whoa, hold on there! If your false positive is just due to randomness, then, yes, that's true. But, if it's due to some other issue (such as another virus which the test thinks is Covid), then the chance of a second false positive would be probably close to 100%, depending on a lot of secondary issues as to the reason why this virus causes a positive reading.
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  2. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by duriel View Post
    I am talking about cov19.
    And it you read the paper marc posted, without a thorough evaluation, many people give false results due to too many things not associated with the test. Like maybe if you had coffee that morning.
    You understand that if people can't get this example math right, I don't consider them remotely qualified to have an informed opinion, right? Did you get it right? No.

    But feel free to put the link here, and I will give it whatever attention I think it deserves.

    There are a lot of tests. Tests for the virus are not the same as tests for antibodies. And many of the antibody tests (over 160 hit the market) are not approved, and have known problems. But post the link and I will look.
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  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    Whoa, hold on there! If your false positive is just due to randomness, then, yes, that's true. But, if it's due to some other issue (such as another virus which the test thinks is Covid), then the chance of a second false positive would be probably close to 100%, depending on a lot of secondary issues as to the reason why this virus causes a positive reading.
    Yes. But in the example, the rate is known.

    You are talking about the "specificity" of a test. Establishing specificity is done through lab testing initially. If a test targets a specific protein, for example, they might test "negative" samples with viruses that have a similar protein. If that triggers a positive, bad test.

    Low specificity produces a lot of false positives.

    Sensitivity is about picking up the virus when it is there. Low sensitivity means more false negatives.

    Both sensitivity and specificity are important to establish as accurately as possible, of course.
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  4. #29
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    I think you want to talk in general.
    Everyone else here wants to talk about Cov19, get it? No!
    No one is interested in that purely scientific study theoretical if it doesn't apply. And it doesn't. They don't have the tests, the tests they have are crap, and most people don't know that.
    I don't think they should say they have tests if they don't have a means to process them, that is part of the test. They have partial tests, and they don't really work.

    Coming up with some theoretical discussion is just not appropriate, as it doesn't apply to what is happening now.
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  5. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by duriel View Post
    I think you want to talk in general.
    Everyone else here wants to talk about Cov19, get it? No!
    No one is interested in that purely scientific study theoretical if it doesn't apply. And it doesn't. They don't have the tests, the tests they have are crap, and most people don't know that.
    I don't think they should say they have tests if they don't have a means to process them, that is part of the test. They have partial tests, and they don't really work.

    Coming up with some theoretical discussion is just not appropriate, as it doesn't apply to what is happening now.
    No link? Just an attack? Guess you really don't want to talk about Covid, hmmmm?

    Seems SOME people were interested in this thread topic, so I would say your evaluation is counter to the evidence at hand. So let's add evidence based reasoning to the issues you have with the use of probability.

    There's another thread for covid, I posted this for my own reasons. Play, or don't. I don't care.

    Speaking about the other thread, I stopped paying much attention a while ago. Because I don't really see much of value to me going on in it. Yet I still told you to give me a link (which I presume was somewhere in there) which I would look at.

    I know more about Covid than you, which I should. I've read a lot about it. I also have the background in epi to understand what I read. Which you don't.

    That seems to bother you.

    Have fun with that feeling. Or maybe you might consider that when someone knows things you don't, you could learn from them. That's how I treat the MANY people who know more about stuff than I do, on many topics. YMMV.
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  6. #31
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    Is there a point to this thread, or is it just a math exercise?

  7. #32
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    Seems like one of those math exercises designed to trick people. Most likely the majority of us may have learned the math portion at some point in our lives, but never ever needed, and we are being asked to recall something useless to most. I'm not being facetious, that's just how I see it.

    This stuff pops up on Facebook all time now, along with those word picture math problems that ask you how many parrots are in the picture, then hide one in the image that is about 3 by 4 pixels wide and harass you when you guess wrong and show your inferiority. I'm not afraid to use a calculator or Google something if I don't recall it, in the good old days we could consult a reference book and no one thought you were the lesser for it.

    Probably a touchy subject for me because my boss will always ask me off the wall stuff and then show his superiority by saying "OMG you don't know the formula for the volume of a pentagonal prism?!".

    I did Google this question, and the answer is interesting, of course I would have never guessed the answer, I would have had to look it up. I would expect a professional that needs this specific knowledge everyday to be able to rattle an answer off.
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  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    Is there a point to this thread, or is it just a math exercise?
    To get adults thinking about risk in adult ways, and if they don't know the answer find out what it is.
    "Refreshingly Unconcerned With The Vulgar Exigencies Of Veracity "

  9. #34
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    No, according to Qui, this is not about cov19, there is another thread for that.
    This is just to show us how smart he is and that he is smarter than U about something that doesn't really apply in the real world.
    He makes assumptions that are not valid, they do not exist in the real world as it pertains to cov19.
    Now if you use say the 1918 flu epidemic, the theory could be applied, but at this time it is too late.
    I'm so dumb. Happy now?
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  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    Is there a point to this thread, or is it just a math exercise?
    The point is to show how morons won't listen to people who know stuff, and won't believe what they say even when it is laid out in very simple steps.

    It's a moron trap, and I have bagged my limit.
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  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by nOOky View Post
    Seems like one of those math exercises designed to trick people. Most likely the majority of us may have learned the math portion at some point in our lives, but never ever needed, and we are being asked to recall something useless to most. I'm not being facetious, that's just how I see it.
    I get your take, given your boss.

    Chances are people did NOT learn this math in school. Not that it is above what people did learn in school, but the application is ... not intuitive. The only place I have see this kind of thing is in medical school and public health/epi curricula.

    It is relevant to you, if you ever have a test and want to know how accurate it is. Now you know that just knowing it is "99% accurate" is not enough. That gives you some power to control your own health care. Not a lot, but a little. Might have a common cancer, might have a rare cancer? Different story for interpreting the results of testing.

    Plus, let's face it, there have been people all over the internet talking like experts. Including on this board. Including about Covid testing and the accuracy or lack of accuracy thereof. I was interested to see if anyone who has been talking big would get it... or even know enough to google their way to an answer.
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  12. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by duriel View Post
    This is just to show us how smart he is...
    Knowing this does not require you be smart. It just requires you know how to set up the problem. And once you see one problem, you know how to set up all the similar problems. I make no claim that knowing this means anything other than I came across it in a class. I did not figure it out on my own. I got a problem like this very wrong the first time I saw one.

    It does mean that I am not ignorant in the area.

    However, being stupid does tend to get in the way of understanding such simple things. And insecurities do tend to lead to people lashing out when they are made to feel stupid.
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  13. #38
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    Qui, are you PBL450?
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  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by duriel View Post
    Qui, are you PBL450?
    Middle school level, and weak even at that level.

    Trolling, another thing you are really bad at.

    As you look for chances in the future, which you will since I am clearly living rent free in your head now, try to bring a better game.
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  15. #40
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    chances are 100% I probably don't have the disease.

    Chances are 100% it rained here this weekend, probably somewhere else too.
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  16. #41
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    looks like I stumbled upon the latest episode of Pedantic Theater...
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  17. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    The point is to show how morons won't listen to people who know stuff, and won't believe what they say even when it is laid out in very simple steps.

    It's a moron trap, and I have bagged my limit.
    If someone posts a more difficult math problem that no one else can solve, does that mean everyone should listen to what that person has to say about epidemiology?

  18. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    If someone posts a more difficult math problem that no one else can solve, does that mean everyone should listen to what that person has to say about epidemiology?
    Is the math problem related to epidemiology? Are they willing to show their work and explain it in simple language? Are other things they say about epi solid when you check on them? If all that is true, I would listen to them.

    There is a difference between saying you can't solve a math problem, getting math wrong trying to solve it, and rejecting the correct answer when provided in simple language and sticking with your wrong answer.

    What you decide to do in each of those cases in terms of evaluating credibility is up to you.
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  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Is the math problem related to epidemiology? Are they willing to show their work and explain it in simple language? Are other things they say about epi solid when you check on them? If all that is true, I would listen to them.
    So, it seems the underlying point of this thread is to establish conditions under which someone can be considered an authority on epidemiology. The only person who meets those conditions, unsurprisingly, is the person who established the conditions.

  20. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    So, it seems the underlying point of this thread is to establish conditions under which someone can be considered an authority on epidemiology. The only person who meets those conditions, unsurprisingly, is the person who established the conditions.
    You should put your mind reading skills to a more profitable end, if you have that much faith in your abilities.

    There are many points to this thread. I would not say the point of this thread at the start was to establish authority at all. It was more to demonstrate how simple information that people have heard about is not so simple as it first seems. Now admittedly I expected certain people to act in certain ways, but that was not the goal, just a byproduct.

    I don't need to establish my authority, because I don't rely on my authority to make my points. I explain them, and answer questions about them.

    The only time I have mentioned my qualifications is when someone said "I have as much training as you do on epidemiology I'm sure. " Which I contradicted. In detail.

    You should not listen to me because of my degrees, or training. But you might go read the start of the "how much longer" thread and see what I said. And then make your own judgement about how much, or if, you should give weight to what I say on the topic. Just as you should do with every other source of information you come across.
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  21. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    I would not say the point of this thread at the start was to establish authority at all. It was more to demonstrate how simple information that people have heard about is not so simple as it first seems.
    That would have been a reasonable answer to my initial question, but it sure isn't how you first responded:

    The point is to show how morons won't listen to people who know stuff, and won't believe what they say even when it is laid out in very simple steps.

    It's a moron trap, and I have bagged my limit.
    Nice ...

  22. #47
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    Doesn't matter....If you test positive, you need to be executed, to protect our leader.
    If your opinion differs from mine, ..........Too bad.
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  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    That would have been a reasonable answer to my initial question, but it sure isn't how you first responded:
    Don't mistake trolling during a thread for the motivation that started the thread.

    But good quality on that quote choice for your post. You show skill. Unlike some others.
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  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Don't mistake trolling during a thread for the motivation that started the thread.
    Motivation aside, a troll is still a troll.

  25. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    Motivation aside, a troll is still a troll.
    See how much better you do when you don't try to read minds and just focus on what is written?
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