How much longer can we quarantine without problems? - Page 3
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  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Scorcho View Post
    As stated above, C19 is not going away, will we have C19 season every year just like the flu season?
    Yes, it's all but inevitable.

    If so do we plan on closing down the country for 3 months every winter?
    Of course not. Like the flu, there will be a vaccine and herd immunity.
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  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Yes, it's all but inevitable.
    Sticking around, sure. Waves, possible. But seasonality is still a bit of a question.
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  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Of course not. Like the flu, there will be a vaccine and herd immunity.
    As far as I can tell, the flu vaccine and herd immunity is still good for 40-60k deaths a year. I don't think anyone can has predicted how this is going to turn out.

    I suspect that similar to 9/11, our country and the world will be forever changed. We will do things differently after this is all over.

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    Jay, you seem to be unclear about the concept of a 'rhetorical question' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhetorical_question).
    um, sure, except I quoted and responded to a statement not a question:

    "And yet, numbers like this are overall fairly insignificant. I've taken risks in my life before that were probably 100x worse than that! Between skiing and (especially) auto racing, both are endeavors where I've personally known people who died doing them."

    So my understanding of a rhetorical question is a moot point because that ain't a question.

    And I knew fully well what you statement said when I responded. It's plain as day.

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Scorcho View Post
    As far as I can tell, the flu vaccine and herd immunity is still good for 40-60k deaths a year.
    Well as far as the CDC, the CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

    That's between 1,000 and 5,083 deaths per month.

    Even with much of the country on lockdown, COVID-19 has 9,000 deaths per month.


    See the difference.

    Not sure where your 'happy medium' is.
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  6. #56
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    I would assume most of you are from the USA,so more or less you should be at your 2nd week of lockdown/quarantine.

    I'm from Italy,we've been on lockdown for more than a month and we are due to face another 3 weeks,so I guess I can say a thing or two about this miserable condition.

    The first week is quite weird,sort of funny and disorhienting,one actually appreciate to be more at home finding stuff you've been neglecting for long. The 2nd and the 3rd weeks were acually the worst,I was talking about this with my wife this morning.
    We've both faced some mild depression symptoms and have been pretty tense with each other. Right now I can honestly teel we've sort of got used to it. It plays a HUGE role the fact that we have a big garden and I'm able to come to drive to work.
    All in all I have to say people in italy took it somehow seriously, but this weekend we are going to see a spike in people leaving the hous. Easter sunday and " Pasquetta",the day right after Easter,are days of the year when by traditiond people take day trips all over the nation. Police forces will have a very busy weekend.
    In 3 weeks by now government will start to ease down a bit on lockdown rules. One thing sure is we will have to wear masks for the whole summer,period.

    Now,I talk with friends in Orlando,FL and Las Vegas almost every day,especially the latter since that's where I've spent a few years living at. Rumors are both of those resort towns won't be opening again before september. Both Disney and Vegas are ready to open in June 1st but that's not going to happen. And that's where **** is about to hit the fan real bad,no matter if it's Italy or Las Vegas people will seriously begin to starve. I'm afraid we havent'seen anything yet.
    Last edited by Devastazione; 04-11-2020 at 12:59 AM.

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    In general terms, anyone with antibodies can go out safely any time.

    Given a disease with an incubation period of X, that is infectious for Y days after it incubates, and has zero reinfections in the same person.... if everyone isolates for 2X+2Y days we can ALL go back right away. (Two cycles in lock down allows for reinfection IN a house but not OUT of the house.)

    Everyone won't. So once new case rates are "low enough" then people who have shown antibodies OR who are negative can get out. The negative people will be taking a risk, the level of which is determined by the "low enough" level that is chosen. But everyone needs to distance and wash hands and stay home when feeling any symptoms. And for any new positive there needs to be contact tracing.

    The earlier you go, the more risk to the negative people. The longer the lockdown, the safer negative people will be.

    There will be a growing case load if we do that, but the hope would be to keep any growth at a low level until the vaccine.

    The speed of getting to "low enough" depends on how well people curtail transmission.

    Widespread testing speeds the whole process up. It doesn't have to be all at once, but a big push followed by medical testing at points of contact would do wonders for opening (and closing future hot spots when the emerge and are still small).

    That pretty much covers it, at the simplest level.
    You keep swinging at it and missing, you didn't answer the question at all. What you did was explain how a study is done and a predicted outcome on some assumptions, but not a thought on how to move forward or when. Unfortunately a common problem in academia, focus on the math / science and lose sight of the bigger picture/purpose for the study. A quote comes to mind
    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    A lot of people can read Shakespeare, how much they take from it varies.
    How about "A fool thinks himself to be wise, a wise man knows himself to be a fool"

    If you actually put a proposal on a realistic time line that also compares mortality rates with options analysis and your contribution becomes a little more meaningful and vs academic. And by realistic obviously if you want everyone tested a time line for that and include a global view/assumptions for travel in and out of the US. If we aren't going to test everyone include some confidence limits based on how many people have had it and haven't been tested, and also how many currently have it and are asymptomatic.

    When you are done with this you can compare it to the short and long term economic and societal impact of following the various timelines in your analysis and you have made a more meaningful contribution to the conversation. Including what you think should be done and why get's you bonus points.

    Next show that to the people that have no food in their house to feed their family, and no money to buy food who has no food pantries around them to get handouts and see how they feel about your analysis. If they feel good and agree to follow the proposal we are set......

    Bottom line is that you have to be able to get people to follow a lead or it's worthless and at this point people are beginning to lose faith in the epidemiological studies that have been directing our country and the world. The studies are starting to look like a weather forecast for yesterday to the general public. The WHO started that ball rolling with a dismissive attitude toward this virus months ago, confidence inspiring right?
    Last edited by Srode; 04-11-2020 at 02:09 AM.
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  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    The WHO started that ball rolling with a dismissive attitude toward this virus months ago, confidence inspiring right?
    Thank you for your contribution, which I barely bothered to skim. It is clear that you are getting information from ideological sources, not scientific ones, and so I consider you a lost cause.

    Have a nice day.
    Last edited by QuiQuaeQuod; 04-11-2020 at 03:39 AM.
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  9. #59
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    Crap.

    Now I am reading that there may only be short term immunity from novel coronavirus infection.

    That is... bad. If true. But if true, it makes stopping the spread through lock down EVEN MORE critical.
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  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Thank you for your contribution, which I barely bothered to skim. It is clear that you are getting information from ideological sources, not scientific ones, and so I consider you a lost cause.

    Have a nice day.
    I guess you chose to more than skim reread after 7 minutes and edited your response? LOL

    Seriously, I respect your credentials and your focus on the numbers and analysis but there really is much more to this than modeling, decisions now are shaping our country for generations to come in many ways and that is well beyond the scope of your comments so far. I am also genuinely interested in your views beyond the numbers and science when you care to share them. We may differ in our views, but I do read / listen to others views.
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  11. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    I guess you chose to more than skim reread after 7 minutes and edited your response? LOL
    I had left your whole response in my original reply. I decided to cut it down upon looking at it... which I did after doing other things.

    The quoted bit above belies the rest of your post.

    Have a nice day.
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  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    I had left your whole response in my original reply. I decided to cut it down upon looking at it... which I did after doing other things.

    The quoted bit above belies the rest of your post.

    Have a nice day.
    Hmmmm, there wasn't anything quoted in the post I saw but moving on - the intent of that comment if you digest the entire post puts it into context.
    Public perception of information shapes how people respond to leader's direction and that perception is in part based on what many consider (science supported in reality or not) to be a blown prediction. The general public's attention span / appetite for exhaustive explanations to changing predictions is going to fade, is fading. The goal line keeps changing as the world learns more and at some point people give up and move on to preserve themselves in the way they see fit. That response is what will determine the answer to the question "How much longer can we quarantine without problems" in my mind, not the studies.
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  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Crap.

    Now I am reading that there may only be short term immunity from novel coronavirus infection.

    That is... bad. If true. But if true, it makes stopping the spread through lock down EVEN MORE critical.
    Doing some more digging. Seems there is evidence that coronaviruses in general tend to produce short term immunity. Need to look more into that when I have some time.

    Interesting that this bit of info did not go public earlier. Once I knew to look, I found some virology and epi journal abstracts. In any case, the experts knew this, and seem to have kept it pretty close to the vest until stories of "reactivation" started coming out.
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  14. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Doing some more digging. Seems there is evidence that coronaviruses in general tend to produce short term immunity. Need to look more into that when I have some time.

    Interesting that this bit of info did not go public earlier. Once I knew to look, I found some virology and epi journal abstracts. In any case, the experts knew this, and seem to have kept it pretty close to the vest until stories of "reactivation" started coming out.
    so this has what impact on hopes for an effective vaccine?
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  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    There are lots being developed. Lots of them, and testing is going faster than I expected. Still, to prove it safe and effective, a year at the fastest is my best guess. I expect 1.5 years will see one ready. 90% sure.
    Just saw the most optimistic estimate yet, from a vaccine developer out of Oxford. September. Then months to manufacture millions of doses. If everything goes perfectly. So call that November 2020.

    That works for me as a fastest possible date.
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  16. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srode View Post
    so this has what impact on hopes for an effective vaccine?
    It means it won't be a one time vaccine.

    It will be used when developed but it will have to be given to everyone (90%+) in a relatively short time period (a year or whatever time of immunity is provided) to do the most good. And if we get future outbreaks, or threats of outbreaks, likely a once a year/whatever time frame immunity is provided shot each time.

    Could turn into a once a year shot. Good pragmatic reasons for that.


    IF it provokes short term immunity. Too early to tell.
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  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devastazione View Post
    I would assume most of you are from the USA,so more or less you should be at your 2nd week of lockdown/quarantine.

    I'm from Italy,we've been on lockdown for more than a month and we are due to face another 3 weeks,so I guess I can say a thing or two about this miserable condition.
    I think it's been three weeks in Boston, and I'm not sure "lockdown" is exactly what's going on here. I'm still going on bike rides and walks.

    Saying it's surreal is about all I can say personally. I'm not miserable, happy or anything really other that definitely 'a bit off.'

    It's been really hard on some of my co-workers and friends though. Most are fortunate enough to still hold their jobs so far, but with them and a spouse home working sharing a house set up for one computer and young kids who'd otherwise be at school not really grasping what's going one it's been trying times for them.

    Not being able to do anything for my 80-something year old parents is the hardest part for me so far. Well, technically there's nothing stopping me but it would be dumb for me to come into contact with them.
    But they are doing well on their own and have neighbors who are really helpful so that's more on principal of what I would like to do not that they "need" my help.

  18. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Not sure where your 'happy medium' is.
    I am also not sure.

    Somewhere between complete economic meltdown, starvation, riots in the streets and 9,000 deaths per month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Scorcho View Post
    riots in the streets
    Some shops have the windows boarded up in anticipation of possible civil unrest.

    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Scorcho View Post
    I am also not sure.

    Somewhere between complete economic meltdown, starvation, riots in the streets and 9,000 deaths per month.
    And yet somehow....the Chinese were able to go 3 months without starvation, riots in the streets, or 9,000 deaths per month.

    It is almost like if people would just calm down and stay home this would get over with far faster with fewer problems---than doing the barest possible minimum and valuing their own paycheck more than human lives..
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  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    And yet somehow....the Chinese were able to go 3 months without starvation, riots in the streets, or 9,000 deaths per month.
    That we know of.

  22. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Scorcho View Post
    I am also not sure.

    Somewhere between complete economic meltdown, starvation, riots in the streets and 9,000 deaths per month.
    Make no sense. You want less than 9,000 deaths. AND less restrictions.

    How do you propose that's gonna work?
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  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by bvber View Post
    That we know of.
    And yet, my state governor is wanting the "economy restarted", when cases are growing at an exponential rate. In fact, my Mr. Potato Head billionaire governor never declared a stay-at-home order and has patted himself on the back for it.

    We may as well admit it, the about 50% of the US is too dumb and lazy to fight a virus. Literally no one else is worse at this.
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    ^ My point was, how much do you or should you trust the Chinese government.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    How much longer can we quarantine without problems?
    Given the level of vitriolic commentary contained in this thread not typically found in the lighthearted Lounge, I believe we have your answer.

    Any RBR moderator not connected to a ventilator should really move this topic to the PO forum.
    Last edited by Retro Grouch; 04-11-2020 at 07:42 AM.

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