How much longer can we quarantine without problems?
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  1. #1
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    How much longer can we quarantine without problems?

    The term "quarantine" comes from Italian, meaning the 40 days isolation for houses where the plague had visited. Probably was a good isolation period for a malady as deadly as bubonic plague was. Wuhan was locked-down for 76 days. Some parts in Europe have been isolated for a month now, and the 'social fabric' is starting to fray a bit.

    I'm wondering just how long this is going to go on, and what is the criteria for full or partial lifting of restrictions? While NYC has been hit hard, you'd be hard-pressed to find a location more likely for this to happen, considering how crowded NYC is. Also, as far as pandemics go, this one seems to be less detrimental overall than the plagues of yore; the plague of Justinian killed between 1/3 and 1/2 of the population in his empire, but Covid-19 seems to be killing about 1.5% of those who are infected, and only causing minor symptoms in about 50%.

    If we're lucky, a vaccine can be produced soon, but I doubt we'll see anything before summer. In the meantime, how long can we hold out before we all start going crazy?
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  2. #2
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    It kind of depends on your personality type and environment you find yourself in. As an introvert, this situation is not as impactful. Thankfully, my spouse is also introverted, so we are not in constant conflict. I also live is a rural environment where the solice an open space is conducive to our wellbeing. On the other hand, if I was an urbanite trapped in a studio apartment, I would probably be losing it by now.

  3. #3
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    People already are crazy. Here in Farmlandia....people aren't taking it seriously and are treating it like an unneeded vacation due to something being blown way out of proportion--because it doesn't immediately effect them. In Nebraska our Mr. Potato Head governor is blind to the fact people in the places that voted for him think the whole thing is a hoax.


    Unsurprisingly, my State of Nebraska is starting to look like an acne-ridden teenager.
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    I suspect this is going to be a much longer haul than just a month or two. Like it or not, this is going to be a way of life for a while.

    I’ve complained for years about the upkeep and heating bills on my barn of a house, but it sure is nice to have a little extra space right now. That and enough land to roam a bit. I mostly work from home anyways so that’s not a problem. What I really miss is jamming with my garage band.


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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Retro Grouch View Post
    It kind of depends on your personality type and environment you find yourself in. As an introvert, this situation is not as impactful. Thankfully, my spouse is also introverted, so we are not in constant conflict. I also live is a rural environment where the solice an open space is conducive to our wellbeing. On the other hand, if I was an urbanite trapped in a studio apartment, I would probably be losing it by now.
    Yep. I'm not a social person and haven't been for quite a while. I'm a homebody. When I was able to ride, before all this craziness, I rode solo, so rollers in the garage isn't that bad. We're lucky though in that the shutdowns haven't affected us economically yet. For those people who just lost their job, the end to this shutdown can't come soon enough.
    Given his penchant for nicknames, and his aversion to reading, I've decided to shorten Donald J. Trump to it's essence: Dump*

    I was "social distancing" before it was cool.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    The term "quarantine" comes from Italian, meaning the 40 days isolation for houses where the plague had visited. Probably was a good isolation period for a malady as deadly as bubonic plague was. Wuhan was locked-down for 76 days. Some parts in Europe have been isolated for a month now, and the 'social fabric' is starting to fray a bit.

    I'm wondering just how long this is going to go on, and what is the criteria for full or partial lifting of restrictions? While NYC has been hit hard, you'd be hard-pressed to find a location more likely for this to happen, considering how crowded NYC is. Also, as far as pandemics go, this one seems to be less detrimental overall than the plagues of yore; the plague of Justinian killed between 1/3 and 1/2 of the population in his empire, but Covid-19 seems to be killing about 1.5% of those who are infected, and only causing minor symptoms in about 50%.

    If we're lucky, a vaccine can be produced soon, but I doubt we'll see anything before summer. In the meantime, how long can we hold out before we all start going crazy?
    I think it will be in waves. I think in another month or two you will see, CA, NY, NJ, Michigan starting to come to the new "normal". I assume we will still still be using distancing and extensive hand washing and maybe masks, but folks will start going back to work. Then the waves moves inward toward the states not badly effected now. I think it will be easier to control there simply because you dont have the population density. Hopefully by then we will understand a bit more about treatment options. You can see from the data that while Korea did an exemplary job of slowly the virus, they still have new cases everyday; around 20-30 per day. So the chance of just ending this seems slim. I am interested to see what happens in China (assuming we get factual data) now that the quarantine is lifted there

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    T

    I'm wondering just how long this is going to go on, and what is the criteria for full or partial lifting of restrictions?
    Afikoman?

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Retro Grouch View Post
    It kind of depends on your personality type and environment you find yourself in. As an introvert, this situation is not as impactful. ....
    I'm not certain how much of an introvert I am. While I tend to dislike having to deal with people, I do enjoy the small luxuries that come with society that are being denied us all now, things like restaurants, and the money that work brings in. I've got maybe 5 years before retirement, and right now was the time I'd planned to work as many hours as possible, not sit on my butt for 2 months! If I couldn't go out and ride, I fear I'd lose it by now.
    "L'enfer, c'est les autres"

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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
    You can see from the data that while Korea did an exemplary job of slowly the virus, they still have new cases everyday; around 20-30 per day. So the chance of just ending this seems slim. I am interested to see what happens in China (assuming we get factual data) now that the quarantine is lifted there
    What goes on in Sweden should be looked into as well. So far, they (without lock down) aren't doing any worse than nations with the lock down.

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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by bvber View Post
    What goes on in Sweden should be looked into as well. So far, they (without lock down) aren't doing any worse than nations with the lock down.
    As of yesterday:

    Sweden, 68.7 deaths per million. Germany, 28.3 deaths per million. And Sweden's death rate has spiked in the last 3 days in a way that Germany's has not.

    BTW, they both got hit at about the same time, hitting the 1 death per TEN million mark 2 days apart. Sweden hit that 2 days ahead of Germany.
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  12. #12
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    Long as it takes. I think it is working.

    I was going a bit nuts as well, been doing a lot of projects.

    I didn't know that I was as social as I apparently am. The things we learn about ourselves.

    Anyhow, I am going back to work. So there's that. I learned that yesterday.

    I'll keep my distance and wash my damn hands, of course.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    The term "quarantine" comes from Italian, meaning the 40 days isolation for houses where the plague had visited.
    That's cool then that we quarantined over lent.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    As of yesterday:

    Sweden, 68.7 deaths per million. Germany, 28.3 deaths per million. And Sweden's death rate has spiked in the last 3 days in a way that Germany's has not.

    BTW, they both got hit at about the same time, hitting the 1 death per TEN million mark 2 days apart. Sweden hit that 2 days ahead of Germany.
    But think about those who would be non conformant and died if they were not eating and drinking and not smoking or non-exercising and non conformant? Hundred of billions of billions. #Cheerios

  15. #15
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    Cadence?



  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    As of yesterday:

    Sweden, 68.7 deaths per million. Germany, 28.3 deaths per million. And Sweden's death rate has spiked in the last 3 days in a way that Germany's has not.

    BTW, they both got hit at about the same time, hitting the 1 death per TEN million mark 2 days apart. Sweden hit that 2 days ahead of Germany.
    It will be interesting to see how it plays out there. Sweden's approach seems reckless but until recently their numbers were about the same as the other locked-down European counties. Finland has partially shut down its border with Sweden so obviously they are concerned. I am hoping we learn much more before a second wave hits (if that even happens)

  17. #17
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    Simple answer: Until there is a proven vaccine.
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  18. #18
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    I’m a social introvert. I live alone, I work alone, I quite often recreate alone, my days have changed little. I miss seeing my friends in person, I miss riding with them, but I can manage. I miss restaurants and breweries, but I’m a good cook and I enjoy it, so, again, I can manage. I still spend time with my SO, who lives 20 minutes away, and that’s about it. We’ve considered the risk as worth it and mandatory. I could do this for a long time. My income however.....

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    As of yesterday:

    Sweden, 68.7 deaths per million. Germany, 28.3 deaths per million. And Sweden's death rate has spiked in the last 3 days in a way that Germany's has not.

    BTW, they both got hit at about the same time, hitting the 1 death per TEN million mark 2 days apart. Sweden hit that 2 days ahead of Germany.
    And yet, numbers like this are overall fairly insignificant. I've taken risks in my life before that were probably 100x worse than that! Between skiing and (especially) auto racing, both are endeavors where I've personally known people who died doing them.
    "L'enfer, c'est les autres"

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    Simple answer: Until there is a proven vaccine.
    And a good 5 BILLION (plus or minus) can be manufactured, distributed, and given to the populace. That is not an ‘end of summer’ task.
    Last edited by rideit; 04-09-2020 at 09:12 PM.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by EverydayRide View Post
    Afikoman?
    That’s just for the kiddos.
    The adults aren’t ‘supposed’ to pursue other forms of entertainment for the night...(unless you are performing a mitzvoh, nudge nudge, wink wink)

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by No Time Toulouse View Post
    And yet, numbers like this are overall fairly insignificant. I've taken risks in my life before that were probably 100x worse than that!
    The other risks you take are stable, the risk of Covid-19 goes up EVERY DAY as infections spread. Shutting down the US a week later than happened and we would have had a million dead.

    Tell the families of those who are dead the risk is insignificant, I dare you.
    .
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  23. #23
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    Lots of interesting ways to look at it:
    Kudlow says 4 to 8 weeks more. There's a school of thought that much of the West coast already has Community immunity and it started much earlier there but was attributed to a severe flue season. There's a school of thought that says the curves are very incorrect based on the numbers aren't matching what is being seen her or around the world with hospitalization/death rates not being anywhere near as high as they projected even with Quarantine. With then exception of New York city and New Orleans and maybe a couple other places, its starting to look like there isn't a shortage of hospital beds anywhere, not even close. States that aren't doing anything officially to quarantine aren't having a huge problem supporting a case this approach isn't warranted across the country perhaps only in hot spots.

    In the meantime, there is a gaping hole in the economic relief packages that are leaving too many people uncovered and before they starve they will resort to crime to feed themselves. With police in parts of the country not dealing with non-violent crime to prevent potential exposure, this could become more normal and result in people taking the law into their own hands. We are seeing an increase is grocery store shoplifting etc here now.

    My assessment, another 4 to 8 weeks is going to not be supported by the general public in many places and there's a fair chance some state governments are going start to lose control of their residents before that. A quarantine that was supported and was politically correct at the beginning may become unattractive and a liability.

    What we really need now is quick access to antibody testing as a means to screen people to go back to work in the near term. Of course even this isn't a perfect solution since some have been reinfected, but it's probably the best we can get short term with vaccines and treatments probably months down the road at best
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  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    Tell the families of those who are dead the risk is insignificant, I dare you.
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  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuiQuaeQuod View Post
    The other risks you take are stable, the risk of Covid-19 goes up EVERY DAY as infections spread. Shutting down the US a week later than happened and we would have had a million dead.

    Tell the families of those who are dead the risk is insignificant, I dare you.
    Furthering your point, risk is more than simply statistical occurrence. Almost no one dies from shark attacks, yet folks get out of the water when one is spotted.
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