Calculated Risk: Economy is looking good for 2013 - Page 2
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  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJBiker72 View Post
    I am not sure the economy will get back to normal this way.
    In that case we don't need to worry about rates going up and probably don't need to be concerned about the GSEs getting called out
    Quote Originally Posted by NJBiker72 View Post
    At best we have been kicking the can down the road.
    People underrate the value of kicking the can. It can be a fantastic strategy.

  2. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM999 View Post
    What were the rates of changes from Jan 2008 to this October ??
    Not just looking at home prices, but home construction, new housing starts for the country as a whole have been climbing for about a year:



    NAHB: Housing Starts, Housing Forecast
    Fredke commented in your thread. You won't believe what happens next!

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fredke View Post
    At some point the sun will expand and incinerate the earth.
    Is the plan to kick the can that far???

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    In that case we don't need to worry about rates going up and probably don't need to be concerned about the GSEs getting called out
    People underrate the value of kicking the can. It can be a fantastic strategy.
    As long as you don't like your kids.

  5. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJBiker72 View Post
    As long as you don't like your kids.
    No. In fact, in some cases precisely because I do like my kids

  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJBiker72 View Post
    Is the plan to kick the can that far???
    Doing otherwise is foolish if that's possible

  7. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fredke View Post
    At some point the sun will expand and incinerate the earth.
    And that's the culmination of the "Southern Strategy."

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    Doesn't matter
    Pretty much. The emphasis on what the president does toward confience is just plain stupid. And even if for some inane reason people do think that the president plays some massive role in inspiring confidence, its completely ridiculous to exclude the role that conservatives have played in striking against that.
    What does matter ?? How much newly printed money is required and where and/or how should it be injected into the economy ??

    IMO the president is the most capable person in the country to inspire confidence. Barry is not showing any leadership but keeps promoting the idea that "the election is over and "I" won" therefore you must do as I say. His inability to address the national debt problem will continue to erode confidence in the economy leading many to conclude (at least half of the voters) that nothing will be done until it is much too late. We will be downgraded again because of this inaction whilst Shrub will continue to take the blame.

  9. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM999 View Post
    IMO the president is the most capable person in the country to inspire confidence.
    Not this president.

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    So let's say I grant this claim. that means in 14% of cases housing isn't the way out.
    Better monetary policy
    But the other 2 were in 37 - 38 and 45 - 46. The first was caused by a decline in nonresidential fixed investment and the second by winding down the defense industry after WWII.

    So how does this "better monetary policy" differ from what is being done now with the completed QE2 and the ongoing QE3 ??

  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fredke View Post
    Not just looking at home prices, but home construction, new housing starts for the country as a whole have been climbing for about a year:



    NAHB: Housing Starts, Housing Forecast
    That's a step in the right direction but the economy is actually slowing down - 2012 is worse that 2011 is worse than 2010. And 2013 IMO will be worse than 2012 - due to uncertainty over the tax situation in 2013 corporations/people may be front loading income into 2012. Since 2012 is very low growth that does not bode well.

  12. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starliner View Post
    I'm optimistic and also feel California will set the example. The passing of Prop 30 will help California's economy, and ripples will spread beyond its borders.
    It will help the public employee unions but will not help the California economy. I live here but possibly NFL - not for long.

  13. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJBiker72 View Post
    Not this president.
    Yup - I was thinking of FDR and Reagan.

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    That and tight money
    So wait, it isn't housing but consumer confidence that is holding things up? (we might then question the goals of one side consistently hammering on the message of how terrible things are...)
    Yes we might. That is what caused the sub-prime house of cards to collapse in 2007. Liberals were hell bent of destroying consumer confidence so that their candidate could win the election. In my life (which is rather long) I had never witnessed such an effort to claim recession long before we witnessed even the first sign of a quarter of negative economic growth.

    It's not likely that very many folks are going to buy into the liberal notion that we need to spend our way out of financial trouble. Unless and until reality sets in or the republican house forces responsibility, it is doubtful that either business or consumer confidence will return significantly anytime soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SwiftSolo View Post
    Yes we might. That is what caused the sub-prime house of cards to collapse in 2007. Liberals were hell bent of destroying consumer confidence so that their candidate could win the election. In my life (which is rather long) I had never witnessed such an effort to claim recession long before we witnessed even the first sign of a quarter of negative economic growth.

    It's not likely that very many folks are going to buy into the liberal notion that we need to spend our way out of financial trouble. Unless and until reality sets in or the republican house forces responsibility, it is doubtful that either business or consumer confidence will return significantly anytime soon.
    Not consumer confidence. Business confidence.

  16. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM999 View Post
    What does matter ??
    1)money supply; 2)results
    Quote Originally Posted by AM999 View Post
    IMO the president is the most capable person in the country to inspire confidence. Barry is not showing any leadership but keeps promoting the idea that "the election is over and "I" won" therefore you must do as I say. His inability to address the national debt problem will continue to erode confidence in the economy leading many to conclude (at least half of the voters) that nothing will be done until it is much too late. We will be downgraded again because of this inaction whilst Shrub will continue to take the blame.
    What a completely meaningless game. There's no content to the supposed "leadership" that Obama is supposed to show, other than holding him responsible for the fact that you don't like him(so much for the party of personal responsibility).

  17. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwiftSolo View Post
    That is what caused the sub-prime house of cards to collapse in 2007.
    No, it isn't
    Quote Originally Posted by SwiftSolo View Post
    In my life (which is rather long) I had never witnessed such an effort to claim recession long before we witnessed even the first sign of a quarter of negative economic growth.
    So what? There were clear signs of downward pressure.

  18. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    No, it isn't
    So what? There were clear signs of downward pressure.
    I am not questioning that the sub prime collapse was inevitable. I'm simply pointing out that the serious negativism of the liberals was the breeze it took to make it happen when it did.

    Yes there was signs of downward pressure. Consumer confidence was declining as a result of all the liberal negativism.

  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwiftSolo View Post
    I am not questioning that the sub prime collapse was inevitable. I'm simply pointing out that the serious negativism of the liberals was the breeze it took to make it happen when it did.
    Great. I reject your claim as nonsensical and inconsistent with the actual series of events
    Quote Originally Posted by SwiftSolo View Post
    Yes there was signs of downward pressure. Consumer confidence was declining as a result of all the liberal negativism.
    As with everything, liberals(and by that you mean everyone who isn't an approved conservative) are at fault

  20. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    ...

    Pretty much. The emphasis on what the president does toward confience is just plain stupid. And even if for some inane reason people do think that the president plays some massive role in inspiring confidence, its completely ridiculous to exclude the role that conservatives have played in striking against that.




    not 'confidence' per se, but related:


    Is ‘Uncertainty’ Really That Big a Deal? - Kate Mackenzie | FT Alphaville

    .
    .

  21. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    1)money supply; 2)results
    What a completely meaningless game. There's no content to the supposed "leadership" that Obama is supposed to show, other than holding him responsible for the fact that you don't like him(so much for the party of personal responsibility).
    How much more money is needed to enable good results ?? Where does this money come from and how does it stimulate the economy ?? How do you define "results" ??

    A good and effective leader gets things done without regard for who takes credit. And this is hardly a "meaningless game."

  22. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by coreyb View Post
    Great. I reject your claim as nonsensical and inconsistent with the actual series of events
    As with everything, liberals(and by that you mean everyone who isn't an approved conservative) are at fault
    I reject your rejection of the actual facts as nonsensical.

    Actually, liberals represent less than 25% of the population but because they are mostly on the government tit (one way or another) they have a lot of free time to influence politics. Not too hard to see that many of them spend their "work day" effing off here on PO.

  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM999 View Post
    How much more money is needed to enable good results ?? Where does this money come from and how does it stimulate the economy ?? How do you define "results" ??
    Enough to return growth in the money supply back to(or at least near) trend. It flows through normal channels, and stimulates the economy both by meeting demand for safe assets and in affecting the expectations channel. Results would be a noticeable increase in nominal spending moving back toward trend
    Quote Originally Posted by AM999 View Post
    A good and effective leader gets things done without regard for who takes credit. And this is hardly a "meaningless game."
    You're right, its contentless partisanship. I was just trying to be polite

  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwiftSolo View Post
    I reject your rejection of the actual facts as nonsensical.

    Actually, liberals represent less than 25% of the population but because they are mostly on the government tit (one way or another) they have a lot of free time to influence politics. Not too hard to see that many of them spend their "work day" effing off here on PO.
    like the entitlements you are happily receiving each month?

    there seems to be no shortage of Swifty posts in PO lately.
    Not banned yet.

  25. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by bahueh View Post
    like the entitlements you are happily receiving each month?

    there seems to be no shortage of Swifty posts in PO lately.
    What entitlements is he receiving each month?

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