Can Lightening Strike Twice in 2020?
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  1. #1
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    Can Lightening Strike Twice in 2020?

    Incumbent's normally win a 2nd Term. Trump won is first by losing the popular vote by millions but the Electoral College by narrow victories in "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, PA,and Michigan.

    Trump's concern is whether he’s so unpopular that it overrides his advantage as an incumbent and a pretty strong US economy. The new state polls however are not rosy.

    Here are the raw numbers for Trump in those three states which won him the White House and are expected to be competitive in the 2020 election:

    * Pennsylvania 45 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval
    * Wisconsin: 42 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval
    * Michigan: 42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval

    Added to this is the weak showing in the former GOP strongholds of Arizona and the always critical swing state Ohio.

    * Arizona: 45 percent approval, 51 percent disapproval
    * Ohio: 46 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval

    There is a long way to go and things can change, but these dismal state-by-critical-state numbers are noteworthy.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-election-odds
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  2. #2
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    Never underestimate the power of short-sighted people in large groups! NPR's show, The 1A, visited Michigan and talked to a guy who flipped from being an Obama voter in '08 to a Trump voter in '16, and thanks Trump and his China tariffs for helping his business quadruple. I think this is the episode...
    The interviewee was working for a homebuilder in 2008 and 2009, and lost his job when the economy tanked. His home was foreclosed because he couldn't get ahold of anyone at the bank to make arrangements, he said because of the bank bailouts and the incessant turnover in those times. Both of those were points that he blamed on Obama (despite the fact that Bush was in charge of the bank bailouts).

    He loves Trump because, between 2015 and 2018, his business quadrupled. He started a roofing business, and began making a quarter million a year in 2015. 2016, he made half a million. 2017, he made 3/4 million. By 2018, he was making a full million a year, thanks to Trump's China tariffs...never mind the fact that if anything, the China tariffs would make his job more expensive (aluminum was one of the first things that were taxed, and aluminum flashing is used in residential roofing). His argument is that the China tariffs are driving manufacturing back to Detroit, and that people can finally afford to have their homes re-roofed...despite the fact that his business began turning around in Obama's presidency.

    And, many of the tradesmen I've talked to have similar thoughts and opinions.

    My experience with such things involved the loss of my job with a homebuilder after, at Trump's behest, Speaker Of The House Ryan pushed through a lame-duck bill that ended federal subsidies and tax bonuses for first-time homebuyers and mortgages under $400,000...which were the key markets for the builder I worked for. So, that builder retracted their business, and I got downsized. Trump cost me my job in early 2017, then the only job I was able to find for the following 2 years was a dead-end gig at a horrible hotel...no advancement, no raise, horrible management. If the guy above can blame Obama for all of his woes, I can blame Trump, right?
    I lost my phone number. Can I have yours?

  3. #3
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    I have seen some of those interviews with people praising Trump and consider them part of the solid 38% group who will go down with the ship for him. Their minds (and ego's) will not change regardless of circumstances.

    As the OP information illustrates, among the remaining 62% of the voters on a national basis, those in the critical states necessary to win again in 2020 are fairly consistent in the now disfavoring the President by an 8% to 12% spread.

    IMHO what the Democrats need to do is push hard a House legislative agenda for the Middle Class (Healthcare, tax reform, 21st Century job training and education, comprehensive immigration reform) and set the GOP up by having Mitch and Donald block or veto bill after bill leading into the summer of 2020.
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  4. #4
    What the what???
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    IMHO what the Democrats need to do is push hard a House legislative agenda for the Middle Class (Healthcare, tax reform, 21st Century job training and education, comprehensive immigration reform) and set the GOP up by having Mitch and Donald block or veto bill after bill leading into the summer of 2020.
    ^^^This. It’s about being able point to a list of bills put forward to make meaningful change... add infrastructure to that list. Then let McConnell and Trump* choke on it or veto it. Either way, the Democrats then have a ready-made platform to run on and make their case to voters.


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    The Law of Headwinds states: If the ride out is easy you better leave something in the tank for the turn...

  5. #5
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    Trump's Betting Lightning Will Strike Twice

    The thing about freak accidents is that they do not keep happening. Donald Trump benefited from more than one lightning strike in 2016. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, offered a living, breathing picture of America’s reviled establishment. The director of the FBI, James Comey, was an unusually incompetent investigator. His last-minute intervention helped sway the election. The US electoral college managed to skew a popular defeat for Mr Trump into a victory. Finally, Facebook offered the ideal platform for Vladimir Putin’s fake news blitz.

    None of these conditions is likely to recur in 2020 — or at least not in the same way. Yet Mr Trump is betting that history will repeat itself. There was almost nothing, down to the “lock her up” chants against Mrs Clinton, to distinguish Mr Trump’s re-election launch on Tuesday from the themes of his last campaign. Rather than complain about America’s rigged economy, Mr Trump boasts that it has never been stronger. In place of “Make America Great Again”, the new chant is “Keep America Great”. Barring these perfunctory changes, America has seen this Trump movie before.


    https://www.ft.com/content/12f94910-...a-60e35ef678d2
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  6. #6
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    To be honest, I'm starting to feel the fatigue myself of hatred and outrage and frustration towards Trump, Mitch, and all the other scumbags at this point. I just can't believe we're still having to put up with this fiasco. It leaves me exasperated that no matter what these liars and thieves do, people will back them.

    Having a president who doesn't brag about grabbing women by the genitals should not be too much to ask. But, it is right now in the U.S.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by nayr497 View Post
    To be honest, I'm starting to feel the fatigue myself of hatred and outrage and frustration towards Trump, Mitch, and all the other scumbags at this point. I just can't believe we're still having to put up with this fiasco. It leaves me exasperated that no matter what these liars and thieves do, people will back them.

    Having a president who doesn't brag about grabbing women by the genitals should not be too much to ask. But, it is right now in the U.S.
    Voter apathy guarantees Trump gets a 2nd term. I'm doing what I can to prevent his from happening for future generations of Americans ... join me in promising to vote in the November 2020 election. This is the least Patriotic thing we can do.
    I am 100% convinced the internet and social media are not the salvation to human civility.

  8. #8
    Opus was just napping
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    This is the least Patriotic thing we can do.
    Are we not practicing phrasing anymore?
    In the time of battle you don't rise to the occasion you resort to the level of your conditioning...

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    The thing about freak accidents is that they do not keep happening. Donald Trump benefited from more than one lightning strike in 2016. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, offered a living, breathing picture of America’s reviled establishment. The director of the FBI, James Comey, was an unusually incompetent investigator. His last-minute intervention helped sway the election. The US electoral college managed to skew a popular defeat for Mr Trump into a victory. Finally, Facebook offered the ideal platform for Vladimir Putin’s fake news blitz.

    None of these conditions is likely to recur in 2020 — or at least not in the same way. Yet Mr Trump is betting that history will repeat itself. There was almost nothing, down to the “lock her up” chants against Mrs Clinton, to distinguish Mr Trump’s re-election launch on Tuesday from the themes of his last campaign. Rather than complain about America’s rigged economy, Mr Trump boasts that it has never been stronger. In place of “Make America Great Again”, the new chant is “Keep America Great”. Barring these perfunctory changes, America has seen this Trump movie before.


    https://www.ft.com/content/12f94910-...a-60e35ef678d2
    I hope that analysis proves true. The "lock her up" chants are particularly bizarre in 2019.

    If I were running against Trump in 2020, I'd repeatedly emphasize how Trump is repeating the same tired schtick over and over again. Make a second Trump term look like a TV show that long ago ran out of new ideas. "Let's cancel season two of the Trump show" might be a nice tagline.

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