Details on why gallup blows.
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  1. #1
    gazing from the shadows
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    Details on why gallup blows.

    Here you go. You really don't need to be an expert to see how this methodology is making some pretty stupid assumptions:


    "That is exactly what turns out to be the case. According to data obtained by Steve Soto over at the Left Coaster, Gallup's latest LV sample--the one that showed Bush with an 8 point lead--has only 14.5 percent minority representation and only 7.5 percent black representation.

    How plausible is this as a representation of the election day electorate? Not remotely plausible. In 1996, minority representation among voters was 17 percent; in 2000, 19.4 percent. In 2004, the minority proportion of voters should be more than this, because minorities are growing, not declining, as a percentage of the US population. So 14.5 percent for nonwhites as a prediction of the 2004 electorate is very, very unlikely. It would defy both recent history and powerful demographic trends.

    As for 7.5 percent blacks. C'mon. Blacks were 10.1 percent in 1996 and 9.7 percent in 2000. And they're 12 percent of the voting age population. There's just no way in the world blacks will only be 7.5 percent of voters in 2004.

    [snip]

    Gallup informs us that young voters (18-29) only compose 11 percent of likely voters. Well, that would be quite a trick. In 1992, young voters were 21 percent of voters; in 1996, 17 percent of voters; and in 2000, 17 percent again. And we're supposed to believe that young voters are all of a sudden going to drop to 11 percent this year?"


    http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorit...ves/000808.php

    Not that this will stop steam from posting gallup results, of course. They might do ok with marketing info, but their political model is way wacked, just like it was in 2000.

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  2. #2
    use the crosswind
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    How can Gallup be considered a viable poll when it's consistently skewed and wrong?
    Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    --John Stuart Mill

  3. #3
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    history?

    Quote Originally Posted by velocity
    How can Gallup be considered a viable poll when it's consistently skewed and wrong?
    While I don't value polls much, either, except to burst someone else's bubble, in this circumstance I'd like to know if everyone had defined "minority" the same. I've done a lot of litigation involving Census data, and even there definitions have changed over time. "Hispanic" is still changing in definition, ranging from whatever is self-reported to lumping everyone in a household as Hispanic if they have an Hispanic appearing surname. Not saying anything here in particular, but I'd first want to know about the definitions and methods for collecting the information.

    Second, for any polling organization, I'd like to see their history of success rate. How close have they been in the past? Track Gallup at this time last election and compare that to the election day result, for example. That would at least tell us something.

  4. #4
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    results

    Looks like Gallup is usually withing about 2 points, unless a third party surprise take a lot.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=1258

    It appears that if their *final* poll is within 5 points, it's a 50/50 on popular vote.

  5. #5
    use the crosswind
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougSloan
    Track Gallup at this time last election and compare that to the election day result, for example. That would at least tell us something.
    Gallup was way off in 2000. At the end of October 2000: "Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore."

    CNN/Time wasn't much better: "Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush holds a 49-to-43 percent edge over Democratic rival Al Gore in the latest CNN/Time poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday."

    http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLI...oll/index.html
    Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    --John Stuart Mill

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougSloan
    Looks like Gallup is usually withing about 2 points, unless a third party surprise take a lot.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=1258

    It appears that if their *final* poll is within 5 points, it's a 50/50 on popular vote.
    Really? Is Gallup using exit polls as their final poll maybe?
    Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    --John Stuart Mill

  7. #7
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    graph

    Quote Originally Posted by velocity
    Gallup was way off in 2000. At the end of October 2000: "Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore."

    CNN/Time wasn't much better: "Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush holds a 49-to-43 percent edge over Democratic rival Al Gore in the latest CNN/Time poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday."

    http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLI...oll/index.html

    They were correct in the result (winner, that is, with popular statistically even in result), even if apparently off in late October.
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