Gallup's polls are wrong.

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  • 10-15-2012
    Creakyknees
    Gallup's polls are wrong.
  • 10-15-2012
    bahueh
    both sides do it......I mean, you can remember two weeks ago, right?
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.co...-wrong-on-ohio

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...-wrong/262886/
  • 10-15-2012
    JoeDaddio
    They said it was an extreme outlier which would imply that in comparison to many other polls of the same time period that the Gallup poll is off the map in one direction or another.

    If there are other polls that show that this is an outlier then they're correct and they're trying to get the PR going. If the other polls are in line with this gallup poll then they're just trying to get some PR going.

    A single poll is pretty useless in the grand scheme of things. Throw the Gallup poll in the mix with as many others as you can find and give em the 6th grade X-Y graphing treatment and then you'll come out somewhere nearer to the truth. Outliers happen, and it's impossible to tell if this Gallup poll is one or not with the info you put up here.


    joe
  • 10-15-2012
    bricoleur
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    a few points:


    - campaigns are poll truthers when it comes to PR. this is nothing new.

    - Gallup has gotten some criticism for changing their methodology (in response to criticism from Mark Blumenthal at pollster.com) late in the cycle.

    - it doesn't make a lot of sense to create a poll that averages battleground states (this is the first time I've even heard of that kind of poll). moreover, there are several states listed in the poll that aren't battleground states.

    - it's one poll. there are multiple polls being released everyday at this point in the election cycle. this is what aggregators are good for--you don't have to sort through each poll and try to determine what falls under "signal" or "noise" (and using a median helps to correct for outliers).
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  • 10-15-2012
    bricoleur
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    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bahueh



    yeah, bullshit from campaigns is to be expected.

    however, if either party or the media engage in poll trutherism (as wingmedia briefly did, a few weeks ago), that's a red flag.




    false syllogism


    crazy = bullshit

    partisan messaging = bullshit

    therefore, partisan messaging = crazy
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  • 10-15-2012
    .je
    Polls are garbage, everyone knows that. They can be distorted any way to back any political cause real or imagined.

    You know there's an issue facing many Americans today that I know concerns a great number of us.

    According to Gallup Polls: 1 in 12 Americans is unaware that the Bird is the Word.

    I for one, dream of an America where everybody knows that the Bird is the Word
  • 10-15-2012
    bricoleur
  • 10-15-2012
    bricoleur
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    explanation of the Obama campaign's criticism of Gallup's likely voter screen.



    In Re: Obama v. Gallup - Jonathan Chait | New York
  • 10-16-2012
    SystemShock
    1 Attachment(s)
    Nate Silver did a nice summary graphic of what he considers the 'house effect' of several popular polls.

    Silver called 49 out of 50 states correctly in the '08 Presidential election (and in advance, i.e. no 'retroactive modeling' BS), so he likely knows his stuff.

    Seems like yet another argument for going with poll aggregators like RCP (or Nate's own 538 blog), though of course even those can be thrown off a bit if they contain too many outlier polls.

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  • 12-07-2012
    bricoleur
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    the election's over.

    Gallup's polls were the worst this season.


    Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race - Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight
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  • 12-08-2012
    SystemShock
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Creakyknees View Post
    Gallup's polls are wrong.

    Says the Obama campaign.

    God I love politics.

    Obama Memo Slams Gallup Polls - Business Insider

    Well, turns out the Obama campaign was very much right about that.

    What say you now, Creaks?
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  • 12-09-2012
    PaxRomana
    Didn't Kodi Kitten or whatever post another Gallup "unemployment rate" calculation that was again wrong just this week? These guys are hilarious.
  • 05-13-2013
    bricoleur
    note date on posts. thread is several months old.



    the latest on Gallup's 2012 polling.



    Gallup Admits Mistakes, Plans Changes After Dismal 2012 - TPM

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TPM


    One of the best known polling firms in the nation plans next month to reveal big changes to the way it does business after falling flat during last year’s election.

    Gallup’s editor-in-chief Frank Newport wrote in an email published Monday by Politico that “a blue ribbon group of outside experts” is conducting a review of the firm’s “methodological issues” during the 2012 election. The findings will be unveiled during an event on June 4 at Gallup’s Washington, D.C. office.

    The move comes after an embarrassing stretch for Gallup in which the firm was widely panned for its 2012 election polls. Soon after the election, Fordham University put the firm near the bottom of its rankings for pollster accuracy. And more recently, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough launched a blistering on-air attack last week against the firm.

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  • 05-13-2013
    SystemShock
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bricoleur View Post
    (note date on posts. thread is several months old.)

    the latest on Gallup's 2012 polling.


    Gallup Admits Mistakes, Plans Changes After Dismal 2012 - TPM

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    I guess they had to. Gallup's credibility was shot after the '012 elections.

    On the plus side, they did help lull a lot of Republicans into what turned out to be a very false sense of confidence about the elections. So thank you, Gallup. :smilewinkgrin: