I smell a rat.
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Thread: I smell a rat.

  1. #1
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    Wink I smell a rat.

    How can one poll show a 14 point lead, while two others show a tie ?

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6025962/

    Sounds like someones been "cookin'"
    If your opinion differs from mine, ..........Too bad.
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  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by MR_GRUMPY
    How can one poll show a 14 point lead, while two others show a tie ?

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6025962/

    Sounds like someones been "cookin'"
    How do these polls work? Who do they ask and how to they determine who to ask? They've never asked me. On a tangent...how about the Nielsen ratings? Who the hell are these people that vote for bad shows like Everyone Loves Raymond and Will and Grace?
    Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.
    Friedrich Nietzsche

  3. #3

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    i'm still skeptical...

    Quote Originally Posted by MR_GRUMPY
    How can one poll show a 14 point lead, while two others show a tie ?

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6025962/

    Sounds like someones been "cookin'"
    about all the "pundits" immediately post-RNC who predicted a double digit bounce as soon as Karen Hughes' ventriloquist's dummy stopped moving his lips. (You did see her reading the speech along with him didn't ya?) And then, abracadabra, poof, it happened. Guess they're awful smart.
    Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    --John Stuart Mill

  4. #4
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    B.J. here's a link to the Pew Research Poll...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bocephus Jones
    How do these polls work? Who do they ask and how to they determine who to ask? They've never asked me. On a tangent...how about the Nielsen ratings? Who the hell are these people that vote for bad shows like Everyone Loves Raymond and Will and Grace?
    It shows how they got their numbers...

    http://people-press.org/reports/disp...3?ReportID=224

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by spyderman
    It shows how they got their numbers...

    http://people-press.org/reports/disp...3?ReportID=224
    Now if you can only explain Will and Grace's popularity...
    Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.
    Friedrich Nietzsche

  6. #6
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    Polls are getting screwball because

    Quote Originally Posted by spyderman
    It shows how they got their numbers...

    http://people-press.org/reports/disp...3?ReportID=224
    more (and younger) people are using only cell phones instead of land phones. A little-known problem. But we're finding that samples are becoming weird. I believe Zogby is trying to address that using Internet polling, but that has some problems too ...

  7. #7
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    Try this on for size...........If Kerry is shown to be 25 points down in the race, won't many of his people, give up ????????????

    Think about it.........I smell a rat.
    If your opinion differs from mine, ..........Too bad.
    .
    How would you like it if Hitler killed you
    Dogbert.

    I>U

    Buying parts to hang on your bike is always easier than getting fit.

    If you feel wimpy and weak, get out and train more, ya wee lassie!

    If Jesus had a gun, he'd be alive today!

  8. #8
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    zogby uses "interactive polling"

    Quote Originally Posted by OldEdScott
    more (and younger) people are using only cell phones instead of land phones. A little-known problem. But we're finding that samples are becoming weird. I believe Zogby is trying to address that using Internet polling, but that has some problems too ...

    Here is an article on the problems facing phone based polls:

    http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ne...5538561.column

    I am not sure on the way zogby polls using the internet. I think he uses e-mail, then does a quota sample of the results, matching demographics of the quota with demographics of the population of interest. At least that is how I would do it. But I am guessing from this quote in the newsday article:

    "I am making a segue into Internet polling, which is going to be the future," he was saying yesterday. "You use screened e-mails of hundreds of thousands."
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  9. #9
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    gallop douchebagery?

    pasted dem talking points:

    1) Gallup is stunningly incompetent:


    -- One week before the 2000 elections Gallup showed Bush leading by 13 points.


    -- They also had Dewey beating Truman.


    -- It's a wonder anyone takes them seriously as a pollster.


    2) There is clearly something wrong with their methodolgy:



    -- 14 of the last 16 Gallup polls have been the most pro-Bush of any taken at the same time. The odds of that happening randomly are about 1 in 14,000


    -- They have consistently oversampled Republicans in their polls -- despite the fact that self-identified Democrats have been at least equal to self-identified Republicans in the every national election of the last 20 years, Gallup chooses to poll more self-identified Republicans than Democrasts.


    -- In fact, in the 2000 election, 39% of the electorate described themselves as Democrats and 35% as Republicans. If you weight Gallup polls to those numbers, Kerry would be leading in most of their surveys.


    3) Gallup's likely voter model has been discredited:



    -- The formula by which they determine who is a likely voter is bizzare and complex and always inaccurate.


    -- Their last poll showed Bush voters 10% more likely to vote than Kerry voters despite the fact that the eletion-day difference between the parties hasn't been more than 4% since at least 1992.


    -- Their likely voter model almost certainly leaves out those who didn't vote in 2000 so they aren't even sampling a representative electorate.


    4) Gallup is run by a right-wing Republican.


    -- Gallup is no longer run by the legendary Frank Gallup. They now are run by a right-wing CEO who has given money this year to support the right wing agenda. This bias is reflected in the polling.


    5) Every other poll has shown movement toward Kerry.


    -- Bush is fading because of the wrong choices he made in Iraq and the wrong direction he has taken the economy. No flawed poll can change that.

    -- The American people will decide on election day whether they want to continue the current direction. They will hold Bush accountable and they will further discredit Gallup.




    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/17/21148/5896
    .
    Stout beers under trees, please.

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