Impeached or not, Trump leads his Democratic rivals - Page 6
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  1. #126
    tlg
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    You are comparing apples to oranges.
    I said 'IF'. If it's over 10 points (at the election) it's a landslide. Which is why I shows previous election polls at the election, not 6 months out.

    There's been nothing to indicate Trump is doing anything to help himself. That could change. But I doubt it.

    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    However, if there is a 10%+ lead in the national poll on Election day, the president will lose in a landslide. 10% is insurmountable.
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  2. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    I said 'IF'. If it's over 10 points (at the election) it's a landslide. Which is why I shows previous election polls at the election, not 6 months out.

    There's been nothing to indicate Trump is doing anything to help himself. That could change. But I doubt it.
    I'm more concerned about ginned up scandals involving Biden and/or voter suppression. Trump is going to keep being Trump- that's for sure.

  3. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    I'm more concerned about ginned up scandals involving Biden and/or voter suppression. Trump is going to keep being Trump- that's for sure.
    They've been doing that for a couple years now. None of them have stuck so far.
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  4. #129
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    The lies, the Biden attacks, and the voter suppression is going to reach frightening levels in the next few months. Trump and the GOP are getting desperate already.

  5. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by nayr497 View Post
    The lies, the Biden attacks, and the voter suppression is going to reach frightening levels in the next few months. Trump and the GOP are getting desperate already.
    Like this?

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  6. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by nayr497 View Post
    The lies, the Biden attacks, and the voter suppression is going to reach frightening levels in the next few months. Trump and the GOP are getting desperate already.
    you have the second amendment, don't worry, tyranny has a cure.

  7. #132
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    Think recent events will spike DONT's approval?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
    More Americans wanted Hillary Clinton to be President than wanted Donald Trump.

    Donald Trump has never had a wife he didn't cheat on.

    There are 2.6 million covid cases in the United States (as of June 30), five months after Donald Trump said it was "totally under control," and that "it's gonna be just fine."

  8. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by xxl View Post
    Think recent events will spike DONT's approval?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
    No matter what the current numbers are, I'm always disgusted.

    How the **** can 40% of Americans approve of that piece of sh!t?
    What's the Matter with Kansas?

  9. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by feh View Post
    No matter what the current numbers are, I'm always disgusted.

    How the **** can 40% of Americans approve of that piece of sh!t?

    Deplorable!
    More Americans wanted Hillary Clinton to be President than wanted Donald Trump.

    Donald Trump has never had a wife he didn't cheat on.

    There are 2.6 million covid cases in the United States (as of June 30), five months after Donald Trump said it was "totally under control," and that "it's gonna be just fine."

  10. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by feh View Post
    No matter what the current numbers are, I'm always disgusted.

    How the **** can 40% of Americans approve of that piece of sh!t?
    exactly...a huge portion of the US is beyond help...
    Ancient Astronaut theorists say, 'YES!'

  11. #136
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    RCP poll leads on this day in history:

    2020: Biden +8.0
    2016: Clinton +1.5
    2012: Obama +1.3
    2008: Obama +1.4
    "I would like you to do us a favor"

  12. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Falsetti View Post
    RCP poll leads on this day in history:

    2020: Biden +8.0
    2016: Clinton +1.5
    2012: Obama +1.3
    2008: Obama +1.4
    Encouraging. But let's not get complacent boys and girls.

    For reference, where were Dukakis and Kerry at this point?
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  13. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Falsetti View Post
    RCP poll leads on this day in history:

    2020: Biden +8.0
    2016: Clinton +1.5
    2012: Obama +1.3
    2008: Obama +1.4
    One interesting difference from Clinton to Biden is that the polling has been much more stable under Biden. If you look at 538's forecast model over the course of 2016, it swung wildly between a strong Clinton lead and a near tie almost 3 times over the course of the year:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    They have not yet unveiled their 2020 model, but it's looking to be much more even. This time around, Biden has had a pretty consistent 5-8% lead. This is similar to Trump's approval ratings. In 2016, there were genuine undecided voters who were vacillating between a known persona they didn't like and a new persona they were still trying to understand. This time around, just about everyone has already decided.

    Since everyone alredy has their mind made up, 2020 is going to come down to turnout. Trump's game is clear: rile up his base- no point in trying to attract new voters. Biden is more tricky as he has to balance turning out moderates who don't like Trump with progressives who are still licking their wounds after Bernie's loss. If he can get both groups out to the polls in decent numbers, he will wipe the floor with Trump. If one or both defects, it won't go nearly as well.
    Last edited by nealric; 06-03-2020 at 08:54 AM.

  14. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by nealric View Post
    One interesting difference from Clinton to Biden is that the polling has been much more stable under Biden. If you look at 538's forecast model over the course of 2016, it swung wildly between a strong Clinton lead and a near tie almost 3 times over the course of the year:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    They have not yet unveiled their 2020 model, but it's looking to be much more even. This time around, Biden has had a pretty consistent 5-8% lead. This is similar to Trump's approval ratings. In 2016, there were genuine undecided voters who were vacillating between a known persona they didn't like and a new persona they were still trying to understand. This time around, just about everyone has already decided.

    Since everyone alredy has their mind made up, 2020 is going to come down to turnout. Trump's game is clear: rile up his base- no point in trying to attract new voters. Biden is more tricky as he has to balance turning out moderates who don't like Trump with progressives who are still licking their wounds after Bernie's loss. If he can get both groups out to the polls in decent numbers, he will wipe the floor with Trump. If one or both defects, it won't go nearly as well.
    And as usual, voter suppression efforts by Republicans will be in full force.
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  15. #140
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    The new Monmouth University poll shows Biden with an 11-point nationwide lead over the president, 52 percent to Trump’s 41 percent among registered voters. That gap is wider than it was in May, when Biden had the support of 50 percent of respondents to Trump’s 41 percent. It’s significantly larger than the chasm just before Biden locked up the Democratic nomination in March, when polls showed a much closer, three-point race.


    Wednesday’s survey indicated that the nationwide unrest over the last week, stemming from the killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, by police, is weighing on the minds of a significant slice of voters, with Trump earning worse marks on race relations amid the upheaval.

    One-in-three voters said that race relations will play a major role in their vote for president, though nearly half, 49 percent, said the issue would not factor into their decision at all. Another 17 percent said race relations would play a minor role in their vote.
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  16. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    The new Monmouth University poll shows Biden with an 11-point nationwide lead over the president
    Just fyi, Hillary was up by 12 points at this time in 2016.
    Joe Biden: a case study in plastic surgery disasters.

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  17. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    Just fyi, Hillary was up by 12 points at this time in 2016.
    Surely you're not diminishing the polls... you started this thread right? I guess the hits keep coming for the Dems for real now.

    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    The hits just keep coming for the Dems. Now Trump leads all of the Dems in head-to-head polling, with Burisma Biden and Socialist Sanders resting atop of the heap of Dem candidates.
    Beating the S&P 500 is not hard - for me. Apparently it's darn near impossible for you. I beat the S&P consistently. I’ve since moved most of my stuff into targeted retirement funds and more conservative investments that aren’t likely to beat the index. 90% of my funds are with a management company now. My plans for most of the money I’ve piled up are bigger than I am, and involve things I know little about and I lack the desire to learn how so I handed it off to a pro.

  18. #143
    tlg
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    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    Just fyi, Hillary was up by 12 points at this time in 2016.
    Why do you lie? It's so weird. Do you think people actually believe the stuff you spew?

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html
    June 3, 2016: Clinton up by 1.5 pts


    And fyi... Clinton wasn't running against an incumbent. Biden is.
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  19. #144
    xxl
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    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    Just fyi, Hillary was up by 12 points at this time in 2016.
    Absence of source noted.

    Please (re)read this, from the PO rules:

    "Source citation is advised (such as hyperlink to the original article). Since people may question the source of your information, you might as well provide it in the first place."
    More Americans wanted Hillary Clinton to be President than wanted Donald Trump.

    Donald Trump has never had a wife he didn't cheat on.

    There are 2.6 million covid cases in the United States (as of June 30), five months after Donald Trump said it was "totally under control," and that "it's gonna be just fine."

  20. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlg View Post
    Why do you lie? It's so weird. Do you think people actually believe the stuff you spew?

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html
    June 3, 2016: Clinton up by 1.5 pts


    And fyi... Clinton wasn't running against an incumbent. Biden is.
    And again, the big difference is that Clinton vs. Trump had wide swings, while Biden v. Trump has not.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

    Polling average have consistently had Biden up by 4-10% over the last 5 months. By contrast, the RCP average had Clinton tied or slightly behind on 3 separate occasions in the first half of 2016, and another time in late July.

    That doesn't mean that Biden will win, but his polls have been much more consistently good vs Trump as compared to Clinton. Again, that speaks to the polarization that has occured.

  21. #146
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    Only a small group of morons are buying Trump's faux strongman act.

    "I would like you to do us a favor"

  22. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Falsetti View Post
    Only a small group of morons are buying Trump's faux strongman act.

    How many of those disapproving are just disappointed that Trump hasn't napalmed black protesters...

    Yet.
    In the time of battle you don't rise to the occasion you resort to the level of your conditioning...

  23. #148
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    32% is nearly one third of the population - hardly a small group. Given the white population in the U.S. is 76.5% (2018 estimate, Wikipedia), it proves there is still a lot of hate out there.
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    bicycles in particular, you need to separate between what's merely true and what's important."
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  24. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveWC View Post
    Surely you're not diminishing the polls... you started this thread right? I guess the hits keep coming for the Dems for real now.
    Nope, just adding some perspective.

    Here is the source for the 12 point lead that I had mentioned.

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/polit...ump/index.html
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  25. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    Nope, just adding some perspective.
    Some actual perspective

    RCP poll leads on this day in history:

    2020: Biden +8.0
    2016: Clinton +1.5
    2012: Obama +1.3
    2008: Obama +1.4
    "I would like you to do us a favor"

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