Trade war may pay off
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  1. #1
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    Trade war may pay off

    I thought this was a pretty interesting article, I'm sure everyone here is hopeful that the Presidents trade war is going to pay off.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...teid=rss&rss=1
    "The American people elected Donald Trump as the President of the United States, and not Hillary. I don't think the left is taking this loss as well as they could have"...

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    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/cate...twitter%7Cmain

    Caterpillar shares dive 7% after it says material costs are rising because of tariffs. stock was down 15% in October even before the company disclosed its earnings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    I thought this was a pretty interesting article, I'm sure everyone here is hopeful that the Presidents trade war is going to pay off.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...teid=rss&rss=1
    From your link
    It is difficult to hire large numbers of skilled manufacturing workers in the U.S.;
    This is key. The reason Germany is able to compete with China is because their education system pumps out lots of highly skilled labor. As long as American is antagonistic against low cost education and investing in infrastructure the supposedly benefits of a trade war will not be realized.

    Note, the author's primary point is that advances in robotics, sensors, and artificial intelligence, it has become possible to bringing manufacturing jobs back to America. He has also pointed out that Trump's trade war is helping other countries, like India
    https://www.hindustantimes.com/analy...8AGJcSDTK.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Falsetti View Post
    From your link


    This is key. The reason Germany is able to compete with China is because their education system pumps out lots of highly skilled labor. As long as American is antagonistic against low cost education and investing in infrastructure the supposedly benefits of a trade war will not be realized.
    We pump out our share of skilled labor too. Problem being we don't have the jobs that pay a living wage to attract the people to use it.


    Here in farm country every Nebraska FFA program is teaching kids trades like welding/metal-work and wood shop and so on. Catch being there's no manufacturing with 200 miles to use that education--and it only gets used on the family farm for maintenance.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    We pump out our share of skilled labor too. Problem being we don't have the jobs that pay a living wage to attract the people to use it.
    Exactly. If we are trying to have our workers compete with the shops in China, they won't get paid a decent wage
    "The American people elected Donald Trump as the President of the United States, and not Hillary. I don't think the left is taking this loss as well as they could have"...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    We pump out our share of skilled labor too. Problem being we don't have the jobs that pay a living wage to attract the people to use it.


    Here in farm country every Nebraska FFA program is teaching kids trades like welding/metal-work and wood shop and so on. Catch being there's no manufacturing with 200 miles to use that education--and it only gets used on the family farm for maintenance.
    There is plenty of demand for that is some parts of the country. You talk to American manufactures and most will tell you their #1 issue is getting skilled workers. The several states in the south have done a great job of adjusting their colleges to meet the needs of manufactures.

    Regarding the article, always need to take what Vivek Wadhwa says. People with limited understanding of economics like him as he is often very optimistic but real economists laugh at him. The CEO of Twitter once called him "the Carrot Top of academic source"

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    Well to be "fair and balanced" taking steps to address China's intellectual-property gambit is a good thing.
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    Article:
    Opinion: Trump’s trade war could pay off and revive American manufacturing

    People were of the "opinion" that Trump "could" be so Presidential.
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    Quote Originally Posted by troutmd View Post
    Well to be "fair and balanced" taking steps to address China's intellectual-property gambit is a good thing.
    Absolutely agree. China needs to be confronted and Trump is crazy enough to do it. My fear is that he listens too much to Peter Navaro, who is nuts, and what happens when China stops buying US bonds?

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    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    Exactly. If we are trying to have our workers compete with the shops in China, they won't get paid a decent wage
    From your link:

    Even without tariffs, most of China’s manufacturing cost advantage has disappeared

    and below that sub-header:

    "[China's] labor, real-estate and energy costs have increased so much that they are comparable to those in some parts of the United States. By 2014, China’s manufacturing-cost advantage over the U.S. had shrunk to less than 5%, according to Boston Consulting Group."
    More Americans wanted Hillary Clinton to be President than wanted Donald Trump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davesupra View Post
    Exactly. If we are trying to have our workers compete with the shops in China, they won't get paid a decent wage
    Cost advantages have disappeared to China...but the ship has sailed. They're not coming back. Wall Street expects cancerous growth rates of corporate profits, can't have those and employ Americans--unless you product is dubious IRL hard-monetary value (say Facebook or Twitter or other similar companies). Thank Republican policies for that. You vote for that Mitt Romney fella? He, personally, made his millions sending American manufacturing and corporate IP to China. Now China is climbing in price--and other developing countries that are cheaper are chipping away.


    Irony being this IS EXACTLY WHAT republicans have advocated for decades. "Free trade" and "competition". You got what you wanted, Americans had to compete with indentured-servitude and slave-labor workforces, and of course they lost....well the workers lost, the CEOs and oligarchs made out like bandits. Why aren't you happy with it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Falsetti View Post
    There is plenty of demand for that is some parts of the country. You talk to American manufactures and most will tell you their #1 issue is getting skilled workers. The several states in the south have done a great job of adjusting their colleges to meet the needs of manufactures.

    Regarding the article, always need to take what Vivek Wadhwa says. People with limited understanding of economics like him as he is often very optimistic but real economists laugh at him. The CEO of Twitter once called him "the Carrot Top of academic source"
    Except those "parts" are far more expensive...and your cost of moving is on you. And after all the effort/expense you really don't come out ahead.

    You can stay and take over the family farm....or you can move across the country to take a job at an employer you'll probably hate (and never see a raise out of) and only be able to afford a shoebox apartment. Which sounds better without thinking too hard?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Cost advantages have disappeared to China...but the ship has sailed. They're not coming back. Wall Street expects cancerous growth rates of corporate profits, can't have those and employ Americans--unless you product is dubious IRL hard-monetary value (say Facebook or Twitter or other similar companies). Thank Republican policies for that. You vote for that Mitt Romney fella? He, personally, made his millions sending American manufacturing and corporate IP to China. Now China is climbing in price--and other developing countries that are cheaper are chipping away.


    Irony being this IS EXACTLY WHAT republicans have advocated for decades. "Free trade" and "competition". You got what you wanted, Americans had to compete with indentured-servitude and slave-labor workforces, and of course they lost....well the workers lost, the CEOs and oligarchs made out like bandits. Why aren't you happy with it?



    Except those "parts" are far more expensive...and your cost of moving is on you. And after all the effort/expense you really don't come out ahead.

    You can stay and take over the family farm....or you can move across the country to take a job at an employer you'll probably hate (and never see a raise out of) and only be able to afford a shoebox apartment. Which sounds better without thinking too hard?
    Or they can move to Portland and work for Chris King

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Falsetti View Post
    Or they can move to Portland and work for Chris King
    Chris King is going to start feeling the pinch here before too long. Not only due to tariffs but simply competition--and not from abroad but in the US.

    King used to have a monopoly on the high end...now there are options more easily serviced that are just as blingy at the same if not a lower price point. Last build used a Cane 110 headset (instead of a King), eyeing a wheel build ATM...and King hubs aren't even a blip on my radar (I want Onyx hubs, but eyeing White-both are MUSA and both are more easily serviced completely without proprietary tools)
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    The "rosy" outlooks of the article is on par with the "doom and gloom" predictions of how China's economy was supposed to implode a decade ago.

  15. #15
    What the what???
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    Companies spent millions shipping manufacturing overseas and to Mexico in the 80's and 90's because they knew they would recoup that investment through lower costs there. Now that manufacturing costs have risen in places like China why would they invest more millions to bring manufacturing back to the US? It will take manufacturing costs being significantly higher overseas to spur companies to make that kind of investment again. The battle for manufacturing is and will be China's to lose.

    And if they do lose, there is no guarantee America will win.
    Last edited by Opus51569; 10-23-2018 at 12:42 PM.
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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...war-with-china
    The man running the world’s largest container-shipping company says he has access to data that shows Donald Trump has so far failed to wean the U.S. off Chinese imports.

    Soren Skou, the chief executive of A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, says Chinese exports to the U.S. actually grew 5-10 percent last quarter. Meanwhile, U.S. exports to China fell by 25-30 percent.

    “It’s an ironic development,” Skou told reporters in Copenhagen on Wednesday. “But after Trump has turned up the volume, the U.S. has only increased their imports from China even more.”
    ​​​​​​​Trade wars are easy to win???

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    I guess he hasn't realized that once China is no longer exploitable at a profit the companies will just go to India / Pakistan.......
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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.a2c2941b5bd6

    More Trump Corp Welfare

    Scott Yocom is a 48-year-old architect who lives in Manhattan, works at an office building near Times Square, and has been recently consumed with designing a new central terminal at LaGuardia Airport in Queens.

    But late last month, Yocom received a government check worth about $3,300, a payment that came courtesy of a Trump administration program aimed at helping farmers hurt by the U.S.-China trade war.
    Silence from the so called "Conservatives"

  19. #19
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    Clearly this is 3D chess.

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    Quote Originally Posted by atpjunkie View Post
    I guess he hasn't realized that once China is no longer exploitable at a profit the companies will just go to India / Pakistan.......

    They already have. I'm working the Christmas season at LL Bean, you know, the company that touts its products are hand made by Maine craftsmen? The labels in the clothing are from all over the place: Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, crowding out China. So we have tropical SE Asians making parkas good for minus 20F, and colorful shirts with fleece linings, just like back in Maine.

    BTW, my first job after discharge from the Army in '70, was inward shipping clerk, Moller Steamship Co., Wall St., NY. Had to wear a suit and tie to work; a budding shipping exec with the prestigious Maersk Line. Hated counting beans so it lasted a year and a half.

    The Mafia was looting the shipping containers of transistor radios, cameras, umbrellas, sunglasses, gloves, hats, that a few days later merchants were selling out of the boxes on the street. I was supposed to track down missing shipments. Nope.

    At one point a whole container with Maersk emblazoned on the side was found emptied in a vacant lot in Brooklyn. It carried something like 10,000 portable radios.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fredrico View Post
    They already have. I'm working the Christmas season at LL Bean, you know, the company that touts its products are hand made by Maine craftsmen? The labels in the clothing are from all over the place: Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, crowding out China. So we have tropical SE Asians making parkas good for minus 20F, and colorful shirts with fleece linings, just like back in Maine.

    BTW, my first job after discharge from the Army in '70, was inward shipping clerk, Moller Steamship Co., Wall St., NY. Had to wear a suit and tie to work; a budding shipping exec with the prestigious Maersk Line. Hated counting beans so it lasted a year and a half.

    The Mafia was looting the shipping containers of transistor radios, cameras, umbrellas, sunglasses, gloves, hats, that a few days later merchants were selling out of the boxes on the street. I was supposed to track down missing shipments. Nope.

    At one point a whole container with Maersk emblazoned on the side was found emptied in a vacant lot in Brooklyn. It carried something like 10,000 portable radios.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fredrico View Post
    They already have. I'm working the Christmas season at LL Bean, you know, the company that touts its products are hand made by Maine craftsmen? The labels in the clothing are from all over the place: Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, crowding out China. So we have tropical SE Asians making parkas good for minus 20F, and colorful shirts with fleece linings, just like back in Maine.

    BTW, my first job after discharge from the Army in '70, was inward shipping clerk, Moller Steamship Co., Wall St., NY. Had to wear a suit and tie to work; a budding shipping exec with the prestigious Maersk Line. Hated counting beans so it lasted a year and a half.

    The Mafia was looting the shipping containers of transistor radios, cameras, umbrellas, sunglasses, gloves, hats, that a few days later merchants were selling out of the boxes on the street. I was supposed to track down missing shipments. Nope.

    At one point a whole container with Maersk emblazoned on the side was found emptied in a vacant lot in Brooklyn. It carried something like 10,000 portable radios.
    here's the rub, the corp top dogs are still running on a 19th C mindset / economic plan (find somewhere, some place to exploit) and still 'buying' govt policy that supports that. The problem is, that is a finite resource and there are more players in that game now. We will spend many more decades chasing a concept that is old and broken and doomed to fail at some point
    one nation, under surveillance with liberty and justice for few

    still not figgering on biggering

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    Quote Originally Posted by atpjunkie View Post
    here's the rub, the corp top dogs are still running on a 19th C mindset / economic plan (find somewhere, some place to exploit) and still 'buying' govt policy that supports that. The problem is, that is a finite resource and there are more players in that game now. We will spend many more decades chasing a concept that is old and broken and doomed to fail at some point
    But ... but... Ike warns us over 50 years ago about the ills of special interest swamp-building.

    You can not have a government of the people when someone else is paying for the elections.
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    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...ashed-in-2018/

    Two graphs at the link, for soybean trade with china, and overall, 17 and 18. Data sourced from the USDA.
    .
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ullr View Post
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