Assessing Contadors Unstoppability
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  1. #1
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    Assessing Contadors Unstoppability

    How unstoppabe is this guy? I was disheartened to see him attack today, because he really didn't need to.

    I really hope he doesn't run away with it, but I'm afraid he might.

    The best contenders that aren't from Astana I think are VDV, Tony Martin and Wiggins, because they might be able out TT him. Everyone else has huge amounts of time to make in the mountains not just to catch up, but to pad for when he beats them in the TT as well. Cadel I think has already lost too much time. Nice to see him go though.

    Within Astana, of course there's Lance. And Levi. Both I think could beat him in theory, seeing as how they didn't lose any time in the TTT. What I'd love to see is Lance run him close, and then those two duke it out on Ventoux.

    Unless he has another poor nutrition day, I don't see anyone stopping him.

    Thoughts?

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sojourneyman
    How unstoppabe is this guy? I was disheartened to see him attack today, because he really didn't need to.

    I think he did... In fact I think he needed to attack much earlier to gain more time than he did.

  3. #3
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    I think Evans could be a challenger if he could make up that extra time somehow, but doing so will be very hard since Alberto will easily mark him.

    Sastre might have him on an easier gradient climb, but I expect Contador will do better than Sastre in the ITT. Similarly I think Lance has a good chance of making up some time in the ITT so all he has to do is stick with Alberto, problem being that he can't attack when Alberto attacks.

    I don't think Schleck has a chance because of his poor TT ability.

    But on the high gradient stuff, Alberto has the chance to put more and bigger time on people.

  4. #4
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    Today I saw a great acceleration from Conti, then saw a track racer lead a group that held even, or gained on him, in the end. To early to make any assessments.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsedlak
    But on the high gradient stuff, Alberto has the chance to put more and bigger time on people.
    What stages will that be?

  6. #6
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    As someone else has pointed out....barring an accident, illness or a bonk........there are only 3 more stages that could be decisive to the overall.

    15 - with a mountain top finish
    18 - The !TT
    20 - Ventoux

    15 is not a HC climb, so while time gaps are possible, large ones are unlikely

    so it all comes down to Can LA perform better in the 40K time trial than he has shown & can he either stay with AC up Ventoux or dominate him?

    If you base it on history, LA should take some time in the TT....but AC has improved his TT capability & LA has not shown that he has the same power he had. To me, the jury is still out.

    As a viewer, the ideal scenario would be for AC to put 30 seconds into LA on stage 15, LA to put a minute on AC in the TT and then have AC try to break LA on Ventoux.

    I suspect that AC will put time into LA on all 3 stages.

    Fun to speculate though.

    len



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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by haikalah
    What stages will that be?
    Not sure, Ventoux?

  8. #8
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    Yabbut...

    What happens when Lance goes up the road on one of the 'boring' stages?
    A good habit is as hard to break as a bad one..

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by danl1
    Yabbut...

    What happens when Lance goes up the road on one of the 'boring' stages?
    He will be marked by every other team. kthxbai2u thx for playing!

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by danl1
    Yabbut...

    What happens when Lance goes up the road on one of the 'boring' stages?
    I'm not seeing 2 brain farts in one tour.

    len



    "Evil....is the complete lack of Empathy!"

    ""We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit. " Aristotle

    No one is as bad as the worst thing they have done & no one is as good as the best thing they have done.........think of that when you feel like you understand someone.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Len J
    I'm not seeing 2 brain farts in one tour.

    len
    I see the tiniest of chances on Ventoux but other than thatt I agree... even in the stages without race radios.

  12. #12
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    Maybe Lance will help Levi like he did in the Amgen Tour.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Len J
    I'm not seeing 2 brain farts in one tour.

    len
    Radios aren't allowed on stages 10 & 13. The French said it had an impact on their national championship race when it was conducted radio free. Those stages will be wild cards that increases the chance of another brain fart.
    "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Voltaire

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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teebird
    Maybe Lance will help Levi like he did in the Amgen Tour.
    Maybe Lance will help Levi . . . . ride like Levi did in the Giro?
    "It is better to conquer yourself, than to win a thousand battles." -Dhammapada

    "Fact is only what you believe; fact and fiction work as a team." Jack Johnson

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  15. #15
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    I think the pelaton will just be extra fiesty on the radio free stages; most certainly if any GC guy attempts to go.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by haikalah
    Today I saw a great acceleration from Conti, then saw a track racer lead a group that held even, or gained on him, in the end. To early to make any assessments.
    That's what I saw as well. Contador had a nice sprint to get a gap and held it for a while, but then went too far and lost almost the entire gap he had near the top. If there had been another 1K or 2K he would have been caught by the chase group.

    Looking at that...he needed to attack today.

    With the ITT he is going to lose some ground to other GC hopefuls including Lance due to the longer ITT and flatter ITT. Yes, he has increased his ITT ability, but not as much as he needs to. I expect to see Lance gain 30 seconds to 1 minute on Contador as well as some of the other GC guys making some ground on him there.

    There is still a lot of racing to take place and the race is far from over...and Contador isn't unstoppable, that's for sure. I also think Armstrong wants to win at Ventoux and knows it's a long race and is sitting back watching Contador wear himself out....the cagey veteran vs. the young whippersnapper
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  17. #17
    Albert Owen
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    It is clear that in order to beat Contador, Armstrong will have to out-race him rather than rely on being able to out-psyche him.
    It was great to see that Contador has not been intimidated by the old man. I was worried that he had been after Stage 3.

  18. #18
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    Or is he psyched out and felt the need to sprint off today to get his mojo back. The force is strong with LA and he knows how to use the Jedi mind trick quite effectively.
    Just fast enough to know I am slow.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by jupiterrn
    Or is he psyched out and felt the need to sprint off today to get his mojo back. The force is strong with LA and he knows how to use the Jedi mind trick quite effectively.

    I don't know about mind tricks but I've just watched Contador's attack again and other than his initial explosiveness I'm not all that impressed. He faded at the end and he didn't gain much time. He really better have seriously improved his flat land TTing abilities otherwise I don't see him as being invulnerable.

    BTW, Armstrong sure didn't look very beaten in post race interview.
    Last edited by rocco; 07-10-2009 at 02:59 PM.

  20. #20
    Albert Owen
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    Always assuming that Contador was at full speed.
    To my eyes he eased up after getting the initial gap and definitely didn't push to the line. During the early part of the climb when he was following Armstrong he looked very relaxed and easy - just tap tapping along out of the saddle, unlike Armstrong who looked like he was having to work a little bit harder.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by albert owen
    Always assuming that Contador was at full speed.
    To my eyes he eased up after getting the initial gap and definitely didn't push to the line. During the early part of the climb when he was following Armstrong he looked very relaxed and easy - just tap tapping along out of the saddle, unlike Armstrong who looked like he was having to work a little bit harder.

    It seems to me he faded and lost some of time advantage he gain at the end and the attack wasn't even from that far out. Earlier I thought he should have attacked earlier than he did to gain more time but after watching his attack again a second time I'm not so sure that Armstrong and others would have reeled back in more of his advantage if not all of it before the finish.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by albert owen
    Always assuming that Contador was at full speed.
    To my eyes he eased up after getting the initial gap and definitely didn't push to the line. During the early part of the climb when he was following Armstrong he looked very relaxed and easy - just tap tapping along out of the saddle, unlike Armstrong who looked like he was having to work a little bit harder.
    That's the funny thing about "Eye Witness" testimony...two people can watch the same event and come up with completely opposite conclusions.

    I agree with Rocco...Other than the initial acceleration of Contador, his attempt wasn't all that impressive compared to the others.

    At the end he was being brought back in by the chase group quickly and he was definitely trying at the end...had there been another 1K to go they would have caught him and his attempt would have shown he's vulnerable.

    The rest of the tour should be interesting if for no other reason than the internal rumblings on Astana.
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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiebiker
    That's the funny thing about "Eye Witness" testimony...two people can watch the same event and come up with completely opposite conclusions.

    I agree with Rocco...Other than the initial acceleration of Contador, his attempt wasn't all that impressive compared to the others.

    At the end he was being brought back in by the chase group quickly and he was definitely trying at the end...had there been another 1K to go they would have caught him and his attempt would have shown he's vulnerable.

    The rest of the tour should be interesting if for no other reason than the internal rumblings on Astana.

    Watching the attack a second time definitely helped put what happened into perspective.

  24. #24
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    He attacked with less than 2k to go I believe. How much time was he supposed to gain?

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