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TdF'16 Stage 05 0706 Discussion Thread. Spoiler!

959 views 13 replies 9 participants last post by  love4himies 
#1 ·
TdF'16 Stage 05 0706 Discussion Thread. Spoiler!

No rest day until next Monday. Until then, the riders face:
wed 0706: mountain stage, 130 miles
Thu 0707: hilly sprinter stage, 115 miles
Fri 0708: mountain stage, 100 miles
Sat 0709: mountain stage, 110 miles
Sun 0710: mountain stage, 110 miles.

for Wednesday, the first quarter is a false flat, complemented by a nice downhill for the second quarter.
Then, if you think your front-yard fireworks show was anything, then get ready - this second half has plenty to scare the neighbor's dogs.

The third quarter is a long climb up to Puy Mary to a high mountain pass, Pas de Peyrol.

There will be a gain in elevation of roughly 1,000 yards over those 30 miles. The final approach looks wicked.

The overall contenders have needed to be up close to the end of each sprinter stage, but the sprinters will not be anywhere close at this summit, and for the final quarter of this stage.

Following this pinnacle, there is the descent, then two more annoying climbs, and a short run-in to the finish.

This is the first mountian stage, and there are plenty more, but this geography does offer hope to a breakaway. This is unlikely to be so for any GC contenders: if anyone broke away, there would be at least three teams chasing, and coalescing a pack on the downhills - so, trying a grand breakaway would merely serve to tire a GC contender while bringing along some rivals.

So, there may not be fireworks to rival the official downtown show.

One outside possibility would be teams cooperatively working to grind down Team Sky; one team can attack, and the remainder can wait for Sky to do the heavy work responding.

If teams share this attacking, and Sky is left to lead a response, then Sky/Froome can be "isolated."

We will see. Froome is obviously heavily favored, and as last year showed, it takes a lot to wear out the one-two combination of Froome-plus-strong team (although no Porte this year). Starting early to target Sky/Froome might be good advice this year. It could work, since there continues to be a deep pool of GC contenders - knock on wood, no one has exited yet.
 
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#2 ·
So hard to call... Far and away the hardest to predict, it's not like, which of these 3 or 4 guys gets the win? This is wide open. Pretty fresh legs after the past two days, one being an unofficial rest day... That factors in, I'd think? If you are a GC contender, do you start the race tomorrow? Probably not... Not a sprinters day, not with the work in their legs... Do the pure climbers go after it? I think so, I think some of the lightweights make a move on the big climb. Maybe a Pinot? Aliphillipe can climb! Very exciting stage, at least on paper, let's hope it gives off more pyrotechnics than PJay predicts! I think it will.

Thanks PJay!
 
#5 ·
Movistar gave the peleton a warning that they are here and ready to rumble. Of course, giving a 15 min. lead to a break away with the strong guys in it meant they were not going to be able to pull it back.

Feeling pretty bad for Contador right now - he's just not riding anything like his normal self. It's not that I love Contador, I just like to see as much contention for the GC podium as possible.
 
#14 ·
Feeling pretty bad for Contador right now - he's just not riding anything like his normal self. It's not that I love Contador, I just like to see as much contention for the GC podium as possible.
It's too bad he crashed. I like a nail biter until the end too.
 
#6 ·
I'd say either Sky is not as strong as we all thought they were or Movistar is stronger than what we all thought. I'm not entirely sure which the correct answer to that question is, but Sky definitely does not look nearly as strong as they did last year after Movistar went to the front. Yeah apparently they all decided to let the break have this stage. I will also say that Bardet looks really good at this point.
 
#7 ·
I think Sky caught off guard. and their delay in getting back on to Valverde only lasted a minute, then all was over. This was not a stage anyone was going to get time, and Movistar's actions were fruitless. Everyone fresh and itching to go

well OK, Greg sure got time. and wow he went up the final climb fast. As fast as the Movistar led pack. Nice win Greg
 
#8 ·
Actually I wouldn't call it fruitless. Not doing anything and just following what has happened the last couple of years is fruitless. This is doing something different and trying to put pressure on Sky early and force them to do work sooner than they may want to is always worthwhile. Putting pressure on now could pay off big later, esp when those other teams (esp Sky) do not want to be racing hard at this point.
 
#9 ·
yes, Sky was leading the peloton a lot today, and yesterday. Supposedly, no other team wanted to do the dirty work with Sky as favored team - it is decent of them to not fuss about it, and just start pedaling.

But, to soften them up, teams have to take turns attacking and making Sky respond.

Today, not BMC - they ruled the road. Today was Movistar's day. Tomorrow would be a great day/stage for faking attacks and making Sky respond - and if they do not, then pedal on!

If a decent group gets far enough out tomorrow, they cannot be swept back up.
 
#10 ·
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#12 ·
Yes. As is now apparent; yet the teams will cry, and ponder how Froome could have been beaten, when Froome takes a big lead on a single mountain stage and dominates the rest of the overall tour.

The sprinter's teams could all hang back and let Sky take the lead in the peloton for the first half, then get composed in the 35 miles of easy road ahead in the second half of today's stage.
 
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